Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[VP Baltar]

I actually tend to agree with seacore on this. Furc was very unreliable in SAII and stalked several times after being told not to. I'm fairly sure in my hito read, so I personally feel like the risk is slightly less having hito rob (because I know he'll follow through) than having Furc rob graves he's agreeing to now but can change his mind on whenever he damn well pleases apparently. He's changed his mind like four times today about what he's doing tonight and likely town or not, that doesn't make me all that comfortable when it comes to important night actions like grave robbing. Everyone should be weighing in on this, btw.

[Trilobite]

Was he given another action that he refused to carry out in place of stalking?

That's mostly what I'm curious about because that would be most relevant to predicting the likelihood of him actually following through.

[VP Baltar]

I'll need to look specifically, but if my memory serves me the conversations mostly went like:

Furc: I'm going to stalk tonight.
Town: Please don't stalk because we're getting closer to endgame and we can't afford you killing the wrong person.
Furc: I don't care, I'm stalking anyhow.
Town: Fine, we'll lynch you.
VP: Let's not do that. Furc I'm trying to appeal to you reasonably, please don't stalk for XYZ reasons.
Furc: I'm going to stalk tonight.

etc.

If I can find some time, I'll look to see if I can find him being offered specific night actions to do, but I don't know if that's as relevant as Furc will do as he pleases because he doesn't care about the bigger picture, only the game he is playing atm.

[Wraith]

IGNORE FURCOLOW

That is all.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

[Trilobite]

Dislike Andrius and (shock) Baby Spice for lack of vote record.

What about Feysal, who for the record has only voted twice. Once each day (RC and Babyspice)

For someone that is so careful with his vote Feysal's explanation for his Babyspice vote looks really bad. He is really climbing the scum list with this.

Why, something wrong with it? I researched the top wagons, and after I finished, I found I had lost confidence in those cases, particularly the one on MoI. I thought of an alternative, and voted Baby Spice. Or perhaps you wanted a more thorough explanation of the case on her? Here it is, I just did another ISO read.

The vote itself isn't a bad one. I had a town read on Babyspice yesterday because of a few things she said. Today however, she has been less than impressive and that read is being washed away.

But it stuck out to me because it goes against how you have said you vote.

To me, it looks like hitogoroshi is just being cautious, preferring to have discussion before committing to any plan or course of action. I'm all for that, that is how I (try to) play myself. I get what you mean, but I don't think it's anything to be concerned about. I tend to sit on the fence myself, and vote when I have something more solid to act on, or my vote is needed to secure a lynch at deadline. In my first game ever, I led the town into four consecutive mislynches. That was a hard lesson, but it was a lesson learned.

All this said, I'll continue to reserve my vote. I have many other players to look at, and someone might be more deserving of lynch than any of the three above. For now, xvart looks dodgiest.

No reason related to game rules. Vote hopping is just not my style. I prefer to vote when I have a more solid case to act on, or if my vote is needed to secure a lynch at deadline. That said, the case on ReaperCharlie put together by Seacore and MoI looks compelling, but I'd still like to read his posts in ISO before placing my vote.

These statements do not coincide with your Babyspice vote. You did a some what intense run down of all the top suspects of the day that ended with you voting for Babyspice when you presented no case.

So, guilty of lurking? Yes. Guilty of being cult? Perhaps. The RC vote is the worst of it, it does look opportunistic. My personal top suspect is still Baby Spice though, for her actions yesterday - time has passed since then, but the original reasons for finding her scummy are still there. What I've heard from her since has done little to improve my read of her, and I feel she has been conveniently forgotten with new wagons turning up.

Vote: Baby Spice

Will keep an eye on how the El Goosuki and kunkstar7 situations develop, at the moment I find them both more suspicious than MoI.

The first sentence is about kunk but you then go on to say that Babyspice was your personal top suspect, so why did you not include a detailed run down of her? It makes no sense and like I said the vote was horribly tacked on.

So, considering your own stated and displayed behavior in regards to votes, your vote of Babyspice sticks out like a sore thumb. It's a major red flag for me. The case isn't a bad one, but your motives look to be suspect to me.

= = = = =

I fell behind since my last post, but I'm back up to date now. As for the grave robbing plan I would be in agreement, but I don't think we can trust furc not to change his mind. It makes me leery of including him in the plan.

~Sotty

[Wickedestjr]

True, we have called kunk scummy and

he would be the only wagon we'd be willing to switch to

. Kunk pressuring Babyspice to give scum reads is pretty funny considering his play so far. His day one play in particular was horrid.

Right now however, MoI is our number one scum pick and leading the vote count.

We won't be switching.

???

1)He has flown under the radar
Meh, so have a lot of people. I'm not sold on this.

Well.. I wouldn't say a lot, and in addition, out of the five or six players that have, I'm guessing most of them are scum. Specifically these are the only players I had in mind:

Andrius
Feysal
kunkstar7
nopointinactingup
totallynotmafia
Trilobite

3)Avoids taking stances, talks about theory a lot
This was the main point of your case that made me want to read SAII. Looking back at that game, I only find this semi-valid here. He definitely talked about the setup a lot in that game and also spent noticeable portion of his posts talking about night actions/posting the night action table. I do think he's given very few stances in this game, but he wasn't exactly posting crazy amounts of good cases in the previous game either. I also noticed two other things on my iso of him in SAII: 1) the furc hate in this game was present in that game, however to a lesser degree. 2) kunk was more active in that game than this one. He did lurk some there, but I feel like he was at least posting consistently in that game.

Hmm... I guess you're right about that.

5)The reads he gives are weak
True, but this is a repetition of the not giving reads point.

I disagree. I think the two points are different. In fact, you have changed my mind regarding the third point, but not the fifth one. It's one thing to not take hardly any stances when there is a lot of information, but to take weak stances based on really bad points or opportunistic stances when there is a lot of information is even worse.

[Trilobite]

True, we have called kunk scummy and

he would be the only wagon we'd be willing to switch to

. Kunk pressuring Babyspice to give scum reads is pretty funny considering his play so far. His day one play in particular was horrid.

Right now however, MoI is our number one scum pick and leading the vote count.

We won't be switching.

???

We'd be comfortable with a Kunk lynch if his wagon was viable and Magna's was not. Not sure what you're confused about.

[Furcolow]

Grave Rob Roster
RC = Wicked, 2nd Wagonee
Fate = Benmage, 3rd Wagonee
LB = Furcolow, 3rd Wagonee
Lynchee = Furcolow, 2nd Wagonee

Furcolow, would you agree to this roster?

Please for the love of god say

wicked is bloody
he does not need to be on RC
are you fucking dumb?

[Furcolow]

^ is he laundering?

[Furcolow]

Yes.

[Seacore]

My vote, unsurprisingly, is that we don't use Furc in the roster. I think between my quote post, and VP's reference to SAII, there's clear evidence that Furc is unreliable.
Furc can choose on top of that whether he wants to rob or not, and the simple chance that he might should be enough to cover us if we're wrong about VP and/or hito.

In other news, I'll be limited access for this australian weekend, with my phone, which means I'll be reading, but less likely to be writing (I hate trying to write posts on the phone)

[VasudeVa]

I love Trilobite more now than I did ever before. Trilo's #2505 is 100% awesome.

Uhh, why is Wickedest confirmed Town again? I haven't read the thread in a while because I hate it when my prime suspect's lynch is stalled for some reason.

[Wraith]

Wicked was the attempted cult-kill last night. He got rezz'd.

[VasudeVa]

Wicked was the attempted cult-kill last night. He got rezz'd.

How was it proven that it was the cult-kill? The Rezzer/Rezz'd shouldn't find out what killed them, IIRC.

[Baby Spice]

Well, it was kind of assumed with the two rezz's and no sucessful cult kill. Be an extra-ordinary gambit if three cultists faked something like that.

[VP Baltar]

It's not proven, just pretty likely. It's possible the cult no killed, but I doubt it in a game this large on the first night. He's like 99% town.

[Seacore]

It was never confirmed, but given we asked any other successful Rezzer's to come forward there are three possibilities

1) Wicked was the attempted cult-kill
2) Wicked was an attempted murder, and cult tried to kill LB (but the murderer beat them to it)
3) Wicked is a cultist, and cult have done something dodgy.

3 pushes suspicion on his supposed rezzers heavily, but that also makes it the least likely.
I think 1 is more likely than 2, given how many players are around, and also given LB had a general level of suspicion about them (making them a crap cult target)

So, by that logic, Wicked is likely the cult-kill, but not confirmed.

[Benmage]

It's not proven, just pretty likely. It's possible the cult no killed, but I doubt it in a game this large on the first night. He's like 99% town.

What if cult never killed...and just sought to out play the town. They could do all town-like night actions, and pass fetishes to cause in sanities and never come up bloody or have to lie about night actions, meanwhile looking quite townie and causing mislynches..... HRmmmmm

[Seacore]

Benmage, if they've done that, that's awesome. That means we are dying at a slower rate, we can take a break from hunting cultists and start focussing on murderers for a little while.

But ultimately, it comes down to any mafia game. Why do any mafia NK instead of just out playing the town? Because a) they have other tells and b) we win through probability.

[Benmage]

But them getting bloody and insanities is how we catch them and lying about night actions is how we catch them...no?

[Seacore]

In other games of mafia, blood and insanity don't affect mafia, and we catch them anyway. Blood and insanity are at best unreliable cop tells. Insanity can be explained by getting a fetish passed to you and blood can be explained by rezzing somebody or being attacked. Neither will ever be perfect, and scum tells will always factor in.
If hito gets discovered as bloody tonight, I'll believe him when he says he was rezzing somebody.
If Baby spice says the same thing, I'd be pusing harder for a lynch.
We have a couple more methods of catching people out in a lie, but it's still a game of uninformed majority, informed minority.

[Furpants_Tom]

wicked is bloody
he does not need to be on RC
are you fucking dumb?

Whether or not I possess the power of speech has exactly as much impact on the plan as whether or not Wicked is bloody. Two people robbing each grave means that no-one gets any equipment. In fact, that's the whole point.

[Seacore]

wicked is bloody
he does not need to be on RC
are you fucking dumb?

Whether or not I possess the power of speech has exactly as much impact on the plan as whether or not Wicked is bloody. Two people robbing each grave means that no-one gets any equipment. In fact, that's the whole point.

Also, launder resolves prior to grave robbing.

Tom, despite Furc's current agreement with including him, do you agree that we can't afford to take that chance?

[Feysal]

So, considering your own stated and displayed behavior in regards to votes, your vote of Babyspice sticks out like a sore thumb. It's a major red flag for me. The case isn't a bad one, but your motives look to be suspect to me.

I already explained this once. By the time I had finished those ISO reads I did not feel any of those cases was very strong. But I still wanted to put down a vote, that was the whole point of doing all that, so I thought of Baby Spice as an alternative. I admitted it was tacked on, I did not expect to go there when I started writing that post. The reason I did not describe the case on Baby Spice was simply that I was too tired and needed to sleep. Check the time of that post, and when you consider that I am in Finland, you should see why I was not eager to sacrifice any more sleep than I already had. This does not mean I would not have had a case, I knew it was there, but I was not going to spend another hour or two to reread posts, double check facts, and spell it all out. I did all that later.

On to other matters. We seem to have some competing versions of the grave rob roster. I think the latest version was this:

Grave Rob Roster
RC = Wicked, 2nd Wagonee
Fate = Benmage, 3rd Wagonee
LB = Furcolow, 3rd Wagonee
Lynchee = Furcolow, 2nd Wagonee

From a mechanics viewpoint, it would be better to concentrate the insanities from grave robs to few players, to keep more townies capable of communing. This means that if we're going to pair probable town with suspected cult/murderer, it would be best to have two of each. Even then, this plan suffers from a basic problem: we don't know if any of the robbed players have any equipment. If they don't, there will be no way to tell whether the suspect players actually robbed who they were supposed to. So, instead of stopping cult, we might end up giving them convenient explanations for having insanities.

I can't think of a simple way of fixing that, but there is one correction I would make. Wickedestjr should not be robbing ReaperCharlie while bloody, in case he does have a res kit. Whoever robs RC should not be bloody, so they can potentially pick up a res kit and confirm if anyone else robbed the grave.

Lost Butterfly had only one insanity after two nights, so they might yet have some equipment. Fate had only one night to get an insanity, so he should not have anything. My best guess is that Fate stalked - if he were cult, his actions in getting ReaperCharlie modkilled would not make sense, no matter what alignment RC was. Whether the lynchee has any equipment is a pure guess, while the lynch has not even been decided yet.