Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[Iecerint]

Ugly tags.

[Furcolow]

I'd like to hear vasudeva's "views", but that's trivial and he will dodge any real pressure imo.

@Iecerint: glad you're caught up. I would play PvZ anytime.
I like Benmage's recent post, I believe it was around #2574.
Since I'm not robbing, and I heard noise and want to be rezzed, I am going to ward someone who didn't hear noise

N1:
AurorusVox (1714, 1746)
Hito (1719)
Trilobite (1722)
kunk (1729) - targetted by furpants_tom supposedly
xvart (1735) - targetted by el goosuki, not bloody
wickedestjr (1745)
Wraith (1747) [passed a fetish - twitchy]
MoI (1757)
El Goosuki (1760, 1763) [warded by xvart]
Spyrex (1774)
Feysal (1775)
Furcolow (1798)
Baby Spice (1811)
Seacore (1814)
Furpants_Tom (1818)
Triglav (1837)
Totallynotmafia (1861)
Plum (1872)

Cross-reference with the playerlist leaves this as people potentially wardable (the 7 who didn't hear noise):

Andrius
Benmage
Iecerint
Nicodemus
nopointinactingup
VasudeVa
VP Baltar

if any of the above have heard noise, please let me know in bold

props to benmage for the inspiration for this idea

I am pre-claiming a ward on someone tonight so I may be rezzed since I heard noise. I will be warding someone from my above list. Reminder that I have a rez kit in case I die, even if it will probably not ever get any use unless I live until next night.

[AurorusVox]

Icerint - you said that I was sure BM wasn't cult (I think?) In fact, I've been like saying BM IS cult all day. Or is that what you meant?

[VP Baltar]

Post explosion. I've only skimmed all the stuff, but I want to read Iec's posts indepth before the day is out. Also, since we're getting toward deadline I still recommend following the latest version of the Seacore graverob plan. Right now shooting for murderers with grave robs is kind of a shot in the dark. After a night of using equipment to narrow down the potential suspects, we will be in a much better position to specifically target suspect players. Meanwhile, we have kunkstar, Baby Spice and El G who are considered reasonably scummy and have a chance of being cult. Putting them on grave robbing is only beneficial to us if it is true they are cult because it limits their ability to ritual and gives them insanities. On top of that, I don't trust Furc to rob even if assigned. He's changed his mind again since he said he would, so that should be evidence enough not to put him in a key position.

[AurorusVox]

I support using the graverob to limit cultist activity and using those people that are generally agreed to be scummy to do so. I'd much rather see any of the three that VP mentioned rob graves than Triglav, for example.

[Feysal]

Cross-reference with the playerlist leaves this as people potentially wardable (the 7 who didn't hear noise):

Andrius
Benmage
Iecerint
Nicodemus
nopointinactingup
VasudeVa
VP Baltar

if any of the above have heard noise, please let me know in bold

VasudeVa heard noise last night, and VP Baltar heard noise the night before. Also, you're forgetting all those players whose heard noises have been explained. Andrius, Seacore and Wraith heard noise on the first night, but since they were passed fetishes, they could all be warded to prevent another fetish from being created. Wraith may have been stalked by Benmage though. El Goosuki has been warded twice. Benmage, Triglav and Trilobite only heard noise on the second night, when they were warded. The only three players who never heard any noise are the three who replaced in. That gives the following list of potential players to ward:

Andrius
Benmage
El Goosuki
Iecerint
Nicodemus
nopointinactingup
Seacore
Triglav
Trilobite
Wraith (maybe stalked by Benmage)

I am pre-claiming a ward on someone tonight so I may be rezzed since I heard noise. I will be warding someone from my above list. Reminder that I have a rez kit in case I die, even if it will probably not ever get any use unless I live until next night.

The most likely reason for the noise you heard is that a fetish was crafted of you. That means you are going to remain in danger of being ritual killed for the rest of the game. If you are still alive tomorrow, the risk is still there... when would you use that res kit then?

I acknowledge that MoI is at L-2. Under the circumstances, we should settle on our plans for the next night, so we don't want a quickhammer while those plans have not been decided on. First, we need to decide who grave robs whose grave, and now we need to specify names. Second, it may be a good idea to compile a guide for investigators such as the one hitogoroshi made yesterday. My personal recommendation for such a guide would be to start communing people, or searching for blood if you have the equipment for it. Either method is our best bet for finding the murderer, not to mention cultists.

I might have more input later, but I have no time right now.

[Iecerint]

@ AV -- I think you may have typo'd at some point during D2 and thrown a "not" in there.

Anyway, my position is that it is nigh-totally bogus to think that BM is cult, and anyone who makes a claim that absurd cannot be taken seriously. You have to believe a big list of things that don't make sense to think BM is cult (like, they're POSSIBLE, but they posit a big conspiracy). In a game with as many sketchy players as I perceive there to be, pushing for BM of all people for the lynch looks scummy.

That said, I think your D1 play was really good. Or, at least, I could consistently have some notion about a post and then you would show up and say it.

Also, you're forgetting that letting any cult graverob will get them Corpse Dust. Which, as Seacore indicated, isn't the end of the world, but is pretty suboptimal.

[VP Baltar]

Also, you're forgetting that letting any cult graverob will get them Corpse Dust. Which, as Seacore indicated, isn't the end of the world, but is pretty suboptimal.

No, I thought it was only if they rob alone they get corpse dust. That's why we are putting town looking people with the cultbags...that way they won't be likely to have just cult robbing any one grave.

[AurorusVox]

Iecerint: I understand that he looks to want to murder (and thus investigator at this point) but there are just some things about BM that don't make sense if he really was what he says. I think it will be resolved tomorrow. If there is no murder tonight (since he hasn't revealed his target, it will be hard to prevent the murder from taking place), I will be pushing his lynch again tomorrow. If there is, then I will be somewhat placated, though he could be hoping to get lucky (unlikely but possible). I (and others) would prefer a small list of targets of the murderer to remove the doubt of potentially getting lucky, but he's refused to comply :\

It's a different thing to SAY you'll murder and actually murder. So far all I've seen is him SAYING he'd murder and then taking pains to not follow through with it, including wanting to lynch Fate D1, and then not murdering him last night (the flavour would have gone from "Fate: Soulless" to "Fate: Murdered", thus proving he stalked, whilst not harming town). Until he follows through with it beyond doubt, I'll always remain a little sceptical.

Furpants, do you still want me to explain my "terrible" question for MoI? I don't think he'll answer so it probably won't matter if I explain what I was doing now anyway :\

[Benmage]

Ice, stalking and murdering occur on different nights. You must already be a murder...ie. 2 kills before you can use the serial killer aspect of double stalking.

So yes I'm town, not going murderer.

And I didn't hear noise N0 and heard noise last night after Andrius warded me. Sooo I should still be fetish free. Therefore another Ward tonight, by anyone, would keep me fetish free/cult immune.

[Vi]

Mod: As currently written, players with 9 insanities may murder 2 players in one night. Is this intentional, or is the intent just to give insane Murders twice the flexibility with regard to kill targets?

It is not intentional in the sense that the first sentence is not correct. (Murder is not a free action.)

Mod: If scum (or whoever) Wards a corpse n times, does that block *all* Rob Grave attempts, or only n attempts?

The former. Stacking Wards is pointless. (IANP)

[Iecerint]

@ VP -- I understand that. That statement was address at AV for this:

NEVERMIND. I see what you mean. I retract my statement.

One contingency I might suggest is that the counterwagons are significantly less likely to be town if MoI flips scum. Maybe we should make two lists based on MoI's

but we get no flip. We could still possibly do contingency on his sanity, I guess, though cult could easily have no Insanities at this point, unless they used MegaAttack and NP and Fey are just telling the truth (low probability).

[Iecerint]

k. then it just gives flexibility to prevent Warding from messing them up if they're still managing and the game has gone on forever. Got it. I based it on a myopic reading of the rules.

There's still that one issue, but I suppose that'll have to wait.

[Iecerint]

Also, I just reread my notes, and I'd forgotten that Benmage took Suicidal D1. Coupled with the fact that he won't be able to do his 2nd and 3rd kills in one night ala Vi's clarification, he's a very contained threat and everyone who says mean things about him is again silly or scummy.

[VasudeVa]

We cannot coordinate wards. Wards fail if if the warder gets targeted with a ward. They won't be informed of the failure either. It has to be done incognito and without coordination. I thought of something like this earlier because there are some obvTowns I want to live till endgame, but it's really impossible to coordinate.

Glad to see MoI is claiming scum now. Although

maybe FoS

on the late hoppers(AV and Spy) because I suspect this might be some cult plan to cut discussion short.

Unvote

to make sure this doesn't go to fruition. (I wants the hammer though~ Gimme teh hammer~)

[Wickedestjr]

I just realized a flaw in my previous grave rob plan and a way to make it a lot better. The whole point of the grave robbing from many PoVs are to stop cult. My grave rob plan is geared towards stopping as many potential murderers as possible from winning by night 6. For both these plans Furcolow shouldn't grave rob. We know he is almost confirmed town and we also know he didn't murder last night. The earliest he can win as murderer is night 6 whereas all the other players could win by night 5 if they were the murderer. Therefore we shouldn't have him grave rob and should instead focus on potential cult or players that could win as murderer by the end of night 5. The advantage of Furcolow grave robbing that many people have brought up is because he is confirmed town and we know that we won't let cult get corpse dust, but there is another way to ensure that cult don't get corpse dust. This looks like a better plan:

ReaperCharlie - Feysal and nopointinactingup
Fate - Feysal and nopointinactingup
Lost Butterfly - Wickedestjr and Andrius
Day 2 Lynch - Wickedestjr and Andrius


We know that at least one of Feysal and nopointinactingup protected me last night. So, at least one of them has to be town. This means that if they are robbing the same graves, cult don't get corpse dust. This is because even if one of them was scum, we know that the other would have to be town and would stop them from getting corpse dust. I am aware that I have changed my plan a lot, but I think this one is much better than the previous one. Thoughts?

[Trilobite]

So, considering your own stated and displayed behavior in regards to votes, your vote of Babyspice sticks out like a sore thumb. It's a major red flag for me. The case isn't a bad one, but your motives look to be suspect to me.

I already explained this once. By the time I had finished those ISO reads I did not feel any of those cases was very strong. But I still wanted to put down a vote, that was the whole point of doing all that, so I thought of Baby Spice as an alternative. I admitted it was tacked on, I did not expect to go there when I started writing that post. The reason I did not describe the case on Baby Spice was simply that I was too tired and needed to sleep. Check the time of that post, and when you consider that I am in Finland, you should see why I was not eager to sacrifice any more sleep than I already had. This does not mean I would not have had a case, I knew it was there, but I was not going to spend another hour or two to reread posts, double check facts, and spell it all out. I did all that later.

Yeah, well I'm not buying it and I explained why, nothing you have said sways me away from my inital gut reaction. This is just me noting that you have my attention.

MoI's claim that he was an easy lynch is just laughable. It's been hard to get this many people on him, easy is not the word I would use at all. The MoI I know wouldn't vote himself as town, he'd fight, with logic, till his last breath. Instead he lurked, didn't really scum hunt (I'll give him his late Plum points) and then gave up. After seeing his “sign off” post I'm even happier with this lynch.

Respect to Iecerint for getting caught up so quick. Impressive. I would like to know about our placement in your town list though. As I was reading your thoughts, I got the impression you found us at least somewhat scummy. Am I missing something?

Wicked's grave rob plan actually looks pretty good. The idea of Feysal and nopointinactingup tagging up is a pretty good one. Unless I am missing something glaringly obvious. I like it.

~Sotty

[VasudeVa]

I like Wickedest #2615 better.

I'll Un-agree Seacore's plan and Vote for Wickedest's plan.

[Wickedestjr]

It was never confirmed, but given we asked any other successful Rezzer's to come forward there are three possibilities

1) Wicked was the attempted cult-kill
2) Wicked was an attempted murder, and cult tried to kill LB (but the murderer beat them to it)
3) Wicked is a cultist, and cult have done something dodgy.

#2 isn't a possibility. If both cult and a murderer tried to kill LB, then, unless somebody protected them, Percy would have said that they were killed by the ritual and murdered. If somebody had protected them, Percy would have said that they were killed by the ritual and wouldn't have mentioned a murderer. So, either me, Feyal, and nopointinactingup are all buddies who deliberitally didn't kill last night to confirm me as town, or cult tried to kill me and I was protected.

There actually aren't any murderers yet. In order to become a murderer, one has to kill twice successfully.

Not true. A player can't become a murderer until they have gotten another insanity (psychopathy can't be the first insanity you choose). You don't have to wait until you have killed twice successfully to become a murderer, but if you do kill twice successfully you automatically become murderer if you weren't already. Also, what does it matter if a player waits until their second successful murder to take the murderer insanity? Because obviously prior to doing so they have committed theirselves to that win condition.

It's not 3 nights, it's 6. To get to day 6, we'd have to go through 6 nights, and the mod FAQ even says it would take 6 nights.

I'm talking about from this point onwards. We have night 2, night 3, and night 4 to try and stop the murderer using the grave robbing.

It would actually be night 5, but same difference. I think cult should take priority atm. Right now I think the best way to catch the murderer out is occult books by people with zero insanities atm. If we still don't have a clue tomorrow or the next day, then murderer needs to be number one priority. Just my two cents.

I believe it will be too late by then. We have three nights to stop them with grave robbing. If we don't start until two days from now that gives us one shot to stop murderers with grave robbing, and the maximum number of people we can prevent from potentially winning as murderer by then would be 3 or 4.

While I understand your concern about the murderer, I'm not sure what the best method for hunting him down would be. The odds of us being able to delay the murderer even by a single night are quite low, but at least we can clear some players of suspicion that way.

We have three nights to use the grave robbing on murderers. Over the course of those three nights we will probably have about ten players that need grave robbing and that means ten grave robbers. Ten out of 25 players that have been prevented from murderering are pretty good odds. If we choose people that we think will be alive three days from now, then that would be ten out of 15 players. We also have forensic tools, resuscitation kits, and occult books to use to increase those odds. A few nights from now, we will have a very good idea of who the murderer is if we haven't successfully prevented them from killing.

Is there no way to jump to a specific page? Going over manually is extremely tedious.

Two ways. At the top of the screen, beside the page numbers there is blue text that says "Page ___ of 105" Click on it, type in the page number you want to go to, and that'll take you there. Alternatively, if you forgot what page you were on, you could look through somebody's iso find a post that you remember reading recently, click on the small white button beside the post number and that'll also do the job. Hopefully that helps.

[Benmage]

I believe you are mistaken wicked. Pyschopathy can't be chosen. It is attained automatically as the insanity for your 2nd murder....but feel free to mod confirm.

[Iecerint]

Matching up NP and Feysal is a good idea. One is scum and one is town, and they're both bloody already, so it's minimal cost.

Wicked/Andy seems a little arbitrary. I'm not sure why they're being selected. Maybe you can explain why? Are you just trying to ensure at least 1 town? Then why Andy?

Only concern is that Wards might let scum get Corpse Dust. Are people told if their Rob Grave action was not successful? If so, we can find evidence of scum screwing with things after the fact.

@ Trilobite -- I didn't have a town read on you until D2. You didn't stand out too much to me one way or the other D1 IIRC; you may've made a few bad calls, but I can't remember anything specific.

A major point in your favor is that you aren't scum with MoI.

[Furcolow]

i found feysal #2605 to be IIoA
i would quickwagon him

[Furcolow]

and the information he used to refute me he probably found in my own post
furthermore, just because one action creates explainable noise, it does not mean there is not unexplainable noise with it


...just a quick refutation

[Furpants_Tom]

Furpants, do you still want me to explain my "terrible" question for MoI? I don't think he'll answer so it probably won't matter if I explain what I was doing now anyway :\

Yeah, I'd be very interested to know what was going on there.

[Furpants_Tom]

@Mod: if someone who is bloody picks up a res kit and it is instantly destroyed, would they be informed of this?