Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[Feysal]

Looks like I've been suggested to grave rob with nopoint. I get the reasoning behind that, though to be perfectly honest I'd rather be communed first, before taking any insanities. Being communed should clear me and nopoint of being either cult or murderer, while grave robbing tonight would only potentially clear us of being murderers. Would you consider waiting for one night before having us grave rob because of this?

Also, if we are going to grave rob, I definitely do not want to rob Fate. Since he had an insanity and only one night to get it, he cannot have any equipment, meaning you would never know if either of us skipped robbing him. The best way to pair the graves to rob is Fate with LB and RC with the lynchee. Doing otherwise makes no sense.

By the way, we have another similar pair in xvart and Baby Spice. The odds that both of them had lied about warding MoI are so very low that they could also be paired to rob two graves, with a similar guarantee that one of them has to be town as with me and nopoint.

#2 isn't a possibility. If both cult and a murderer tried to kill LB, then, unless somebody protected them, Percy would have said that they were killed by the ritual and murdered.

Would he? Maybe this was the case in SAII, but many things have been changed from that game. The way I've understood it, if both the cult and a murderer chose the same target, and the target was not resuscitated, then the murder would succeed and the ritual would fail, since they resolve in that order.

I think this is probably a moot point, since it is most likely that the cult tried to kill you, but for the sake of being thorough:

@MOD: If a player is targeted by both murder and ritual, and he is not resuscitated, does the cult share credit for that player's death?

Not true. A player can't become a murderer until they have gotten another insanity (psychopathy can't be the first insanity you choose). You don't have to wait until you have killed twice successfully to become a murderer, but if you do kill twice successfully you automatically become murderer if you weren't already.

I'm positive this is incorrect. A player cannot choose psychopathy, that insanity can be gained only by choosing the murder action a second time. The murder also does not have to succeed, you can become a murderer even when either of your murders failed.

We have three nights to use the grave robbing on murderers. Over the course of those three nights we will probably have about ten players that need grave robbing and that means ten grave robbers.

I'm afraid you're being optimistic. For one thing, if we manage to lynch any cultists during the coming days, they might not have any items to rob. That would mean we cannot be certain whether they were actually robbed by two people - the same problem we now have with Fate and LB. Also, since we need to pair pro-town players with suspect players to prevent the cult from getting corpse dust, that limits our choice in grave robbers.

nopointinactingup is an excellent example of this. He would not need to grave rob to prove himself not a murderer, because we already know he cannot be.

nopoint claimed to have resuscitated Wickedestjr before he said he had been attacked.

There is no way nopoint could have known Wickedestjr had been attacked if he were LB's murderer. The same unfortunately does not apply to me.

i found feysal #2605 to be IIoA
i would quickwagon him

and the information he used to refute me he probably found in my own post
furthermore, just because one action creates explainable noise, it does not mean there is not unexplainable noise with it

...just a quick refutation

You know, since you make posts like this, I cannot blame MoI for being upset with you.

First, if my post was information instead of analysis, your post was something worse: incomplete information and flawed analysis. I produced an actual list of players who cannot have fetishes of them and are therefore potential ward targets, which you failed to do. The information and reasoning necessary for making that list was also missing from your post.

Second, while you are correct that players who heard noise may have had multiple causes for hearing noise, that matters very little. The players who have never heard noise without being warded cannot have been stalked or have fetishes of them, period. The three players who were passed fetishes can theoretically have been stalked, but since there cannot be fetishes of them in existence, they are still potential ward targets. Also, it is very unlikely that they were stalked, except in the case of Wraith.

This was obviously a quick refutation, since you obviously did not think it through. Your list was just plain wrong, so I fixed it.

[Percy]

@Mod: if someone who is bloody picks up a res kit and it is instantly destroyed, would they be informed of this?

Yes.

MOD: If a player is targeted by both murder and ritual, and he is not resuscitated, does the cult share credit for that player's death?

No. The

Murder

would resolve and kill the player, meaning

The Ritual

would fail.

[nopointinactingup]

Love Feysal for that post. Don't make me graverob twice guys before I'm confirmed guys =(
I also find it alarming ( well not really from Wicked ) that so many people think one of us is definitely cult by appealing to possibility considering I'm not entirely sure Feysal is cult myself. By our PoE explanation, there should be a 33% chance that both of us could be town because we only truly randomized our decision between Wicked/VP ( me ), Wicked/Xvart ( Feysal ).

A Magna lynch is inevitable so can someone summarize the direction of the Night like Hito did the other day? I found that really helpful. We can discuss on with GraveRobbing though.

[AurorusVox]

Furpants, do you still want me to explain my "terrible" question for MoI? I don't think he'll answer so it probably won't matter if I explain what I was doing now anyway :\

Yeah, I'd be very interested to know what was going on there.

(Apologies for any mistakes, I'm drunkposting atm >_<" meh, I like posting...I've tried to go through slowly to make sure it's all fine...!)

Let me take you back to your refutation:

Oh come on, this is definitely tunnelling. He's being entirely consistent here. He says that Ben should not kill under any circumstances. But he also says that the cost of the only action we can take to stop him (

using our lynch to kill a near-certain townie

) is too high. While I think we should have at least made a credible threat, I don't see any hypocrisy in his position whatsoever, and I think you're actually discrediting the MoI case by attempting such an obvious distortion.

The important part is what you've said that I have bolded here. What I was interested in seeing was how MoI would react to my question; if he had come along and said exactly what you did, I would have known that he was scum. Why? Because he HAS NOT said that BenMage is a near-certain Townie. MoI has said than BenMage is ACTUALLY a grey area. That he doesn't know if he is town, wanna-be murderer, or cult. I built a number of questions up on MoI to get, in his own concrete words, his opinion on Ben because I could see some troubling issues with them. Thus, if he'd said "near certain townie" I would have KNOWN that he was simply saying what he thought was the best to say in each situation; and not actually what he thought of players. This is why I had wanted to wait for his response. If he had said something else, I may have felt he was townie and might have pushed a different lynch today; if he had said "near certain" about Ben, I'd have nailed him on my own terms, and could proceed to lynch him with happiness and joy. The fact he dodged it (I think perhaps because he knew it was a significant question for my read of him?) leads me to believe he is doing it on purpose to avoid getting caught out.

Let me restate: MoI has said Ben is a grey area. Thus he has NOT got the same excuse that you offered as to why he didn't want to lynch Ben. I had wanted to see his response (this explains why I waited so long to vote him) because if he had said the same as you, his fate was sealed. He never answered, which makes me angry. But there we go.

[Furpants_Tom]

Let me restate: MoI has said Ben is a grey area. Thus he has NOT got the same excuse that you offered as to why he didn't want to lynch Ben. I had wanted to see his response (this explains why I waited so long to vote him) because if he had said the same as you, his fate was sealed. He never answered, which makes me angry. But there we go.

Hrm. I got a different impression of what he was saying about Ben; but I'll have to go back and rereading him when I have a spare hour or two. Sorry if I spoilt your play.

[AurorusVox]

@F_T, pertinent point is here (scroll down a bit to get to this):

MoI - do you think Benmage is more likely cult or investigator?

At this point I’m undecided. Asking me yesterday before Night and I would have said most likely Investigator. I can see his personal grudge with Fate overriding any Town sense he had. When he didn’t follow through and kill the rendered useless Fate last night and ‘prove’ his Town cred it shoved me back into the ‘Benmage is Unknown’ category, especially in light of his epic backtrack on his reasoning for stalking in the first place. The fact that he didn’t follow through gives me pause to consider he might be cult playing a very ballys / stupid gambit. He has managed to basically derail the conversation each day with his declarations. The longer this cluster-f with him goes the more I question him as investigator. Fate’s flip will also help shape my opinion. Benmage being Investigator would be more or less solidified if Fate flips Cult.

[Furcolow]

i wish this was as easy as a claim/counterclaim scenario in which we lynch either feysal/nopointinactingup, but it is not. With this plan wickedest suggested, even if they are trying to outplay us, we force a potential cultist counterclaimer like Feysal/NPAU into being locked into actions somewhat. If NPAU got a res kit, for instance, we would know to lynch feysal. If they only robbed 1 grave (maximum 1 cult dust), we would know it by a lack of flip and lynch one of them anyways.

I ask this, then:
Is it really best to delay on lynching one of them as a town?
I wouldn't be the first to say yes.
NPAU feels safe for today
Feysal even acts like confirmed town
I would be fine lynching either of these guys
I wouldn't be surprised if they both were cult, but if I had to pick one, I'd pick Feysal. I'm expecting that to be the way our current lynchee flips, though. Lets get this day over with. Anyone want warded?

[Seacore]

Okay, I've been trying to keep up with this by phone and am lost with the night plan. I give up, somebody else can decide what the plan is as long as

a) It's posted clearly at the end of the day
b) It doesn't contain Furc

[Furcolow]

i'm not that worried about any plans
what i'm worried about is our wagon being on scum
hoping MoI is, as i don't see this being derailed

[nopointinactingup]

Furcolow. Me and Feysal can't both me cult or who rezzed Wicked? I still think the "one of Feysal/Nopoint is cult" is overrated. I was a bit suspicious at Feysal at first for stealing my confirmed town spotlight but I don't see how both of us Rezzed Wicked could not have happened.

[VP Baltar]

I want to read over these night plans closer. I'm still not understanding why we should be pushing insanities on players that are less likely to be scum in the off chance they are murderer instead of forcing insanities on players that have a higher likelihood of being cult, but perhaps I am not getting it clearly. I understand what wicked is saying about the dichotomy between NPAU and Feysal, but there is also the distinct chance that they both just rezzed him by PoE last night. It's not like it was a random choice like Baby Spice and xvart chose.

I'm also going to try to get a list of night actions together like hito had done so people will be able to choose easier. Should be able to get that up at some point today, so don't hammer before then.

[VP Baltar]

Investigator's Reference Night Two-Day Three

I don't have fancy pictures and I just quoted hito cause I'm lazy. Sue me. I believe I've made all appropriate changes for Night 2. If I have an oversight, please point it out.

Welcome to the Investigator’s Reference, a guide to help you make the right decisions and get your information out in a way that’s easily readable for your fellow investigators. Because there are actions that would benefit cultists and murderers if they could get away with them,

ignorance of the law is no excuse

, so make sure you read it thoroughly!

Spoiler: What action should I take tonight?

This is a terrible night to take

Cower

, just like pretty much every other night will be. If you rezzed last night, it may be a good night to take

Launder

. You should inform the town immediately if you took this action so we are aware of your bloody status. Remember, you must claim every action that gives you an insanity, so if you neglect to send in a night action and end up cowering, you must claim it in your first post or you will be lynched!

This is a decent night to

Use

equipment you may have. This includes

Occult Books, Forensics Kits and Resuscitation Kits

. You may also choose to

Search

for equipment, though this is a suboptimal choice if you already have two or more pieces of equipment.

This is a good night to

Ward

someone if they have not heard unexplained noise, thus ensuring their survival through at least Day Four. If they did hear noise last night, warding won’t prevent a murder or ritual, but it will prevent additional Stalk or Craft Fetish uses. The murderer will be stalking tonight, so warding can effectively prevent this action. If the person heard noise and you would like to protect them, you should use a

Resuscitation Kit

if you have one.

Do not take the

Rob Grave

option unless you are ordered to do so by the town's grave rob plan. This is NOT a valid excuse for having a higher-than-expected insanity count, so don’t do it!

This is an excellent night to choose the

Resuscitate

option. The following players heard noise and were not warded or claimed to have received a fetish:

AurorusVox
Baby Spice
Feysal
Furcolow
Furpants_Tom
hitogoroshi
kunkstar7
MagnaofIllusion
Plum
SpyreX
totallynotmafia


Chose your town-reads from that list and protect one, preferably randomly to make it more difficult for the scum to plan their nk. Remember too that the scum have access to the

Greater Ritual

, so don’t worry about choosing a target because “someone else might pick them too.” Stacking Resuscitates can be useful. Regardless of your decision, do NOT announce it in thread before we go to night.

Do not chose

Stalk

or

Murder

. While stalking and murderering can confirm a town, it’s best to do it on a later day when the murderer wincon is virtually impossible to achieve for someone starting out. In other words, don't be Benmage because he's an idiot.

This is an acceptable night to use

Commune

, though it may still be best to save this action for later if you are unsure about your target. If you choose to use it, think carefully about your target and if they may gain an insanity from a pro-town action prior to your Commune resolving. For example, players that need to

Launder

tonight will gain an insanity before you Commune them, thus making your result unreliable and wasting your equipment. Commune is an effective tool for finding scum, but you must use it correctly or it will add insanities to the town unnecessarily.

Spoiler: What happens if I get an Insanity?

Insanities happen. Maybe you were killed and resuscitated, maybe you got passed a fetish of yourself. Here are the insanities you are

forbidden

from taking N2:

Hallucination
Suicidal
Sadism
Denial
Mutilation
Distraction
Necrophilia
Paranoid

Having any of these insanities will be treated as a Cultist/Murderer claim.

Remember, you will be claiming any actions that gave you insanities, so

Twitchy

is a solid first insanity for you to take. Twitchy is only detrimental to those who wish to conceal their insanities – you have nothing to hide. If you have already taken Twitchy, you may decide to take

Taboo, Solist, Obsession

or a similar style insanity that does not affect your voting ability.

This list will likely be amended as the days pass. Voice ideas for insanity amendments in thread - but do it BEFORE night falls.

Spoiler: What should be included in my first post of the day?

For your first post, copy and paste this code:

Code: Select all

[area=CD3]Username:
Did you Hear Noise?
Did you Ward? If so, who?
Did you gain Insanities, and if so, which ones and from what actions?
List all of the insanities you currently have:
Did you [b]successfully[/b] resuscitate? If so, who?
Were you murdered?
Did you Commune or Investigate? If so, who, and what result? (Note that these are both poor N1 choices.)
Twitch?[/area]

Which will give you this:

CD3

Username:
Did you Hear Noise?
Did you Ward? If so, who?
Did you gain Insanities, and if so, which ones and from what actions?
List all of the insanities you currently have:
Did you

successfully

resuscitate? If so, who?
Were you murdered?
Did you Commune or Investigate? If so, who, and what result? (Note that these are both poor N1 choices.)
Twitch?

Fill this out and include it in your first post of the day.

[Wraith]

Screw it, I'm just going to use my Rez Kit tonight, and if I end up dead from a murder, so be it. But I will put in an "I told you so" now just in case.

[Trilobite]

This is an acceptable night to use Commune, though it may still be best to save this action for later if you are unsure about your target. If you choose to use it, think carefully about your target and if they may gain an insanity from a pro-town action prior to your Commune resolving. For example, players that need to Launder tonight will gain an insanity before you Commune them, thus making your result unreliable and wasting your equipment. Commune is an effective tool for finding scum, but you must use it correctly or it will add insanities to the town unnecessarily.

You don't gain an insanity from laundering unless you're not bloody when you do it, and I'm not sure why anyone who's not bloody would chose to do so.

[Feysal]

Love Feysal for that post. Don't make me graverob twice guys before I'm confirmed guys =(

Laugh it up, we both have the same problem. If we take two insanities each tonight from grave robs, we can no longer be communed to sort out if either of us is lying. It has to be done now or never. I'd rather use this opportunity to have us both confirmed properly so neither of us has to face being mislynched within a few days. I said before I'd rather not grave rob tonight, and this is why. Tomorrow night and any night thereafter is a different story.

I also find it alarming (well not really from Wicked) that so many people think one of us is definitely cult by appealing to possibility considering I'm not entirely sure Feysal is cult myself. By our PoE explanation, there should be a 33% chance that both of us could be town because we only truly randomized our decision between Wicked/VP (me), Wicked/Xvart (Feysal).

I'm not sure where you got that number. Even at completely random, with a modest estimate of five people resuscitating last night and knowing Wickedestjr was resuscitated, the odds of two people doing it are around 41% (1-((7/8)^4)). Factoring in the PoE, the odds should be close to even. Considering this, I'm not eager to suspect you, either.

A Magna lynch is inevitable so can someone summarize the direction of the Night like Hito did the other day? I found that really helpful. We can discuss on with GraveRobbing though.

I'm also going to try to get a list of night actions together like hito had done so people will be able to choose easier. Should be able to get that up at some point today, so don't hammer before then.

Since hitogoroshi seems to have gone AWOL, I thought of doing this myself. Below is what I have so far, I shamelessly stole the format.

Spoiler: What action should I take tonight?

It is never a good time to

Cower

. It is also a bad night to

Launder

, even for those three of us known to be bloody. We're nowhere close to Chaos, and there are more urgent actions to take.

This is a mediocre night to

Search

for equipment. By now nearly everyone should have some equipment, and best thing to do is put it to use. Those few of us whose equipment has been destroyed or who never searched for any should probably search for Occult Books or Forensic Tools.

This is not a very good night to

Ward

. There are ten players who cannot have fetishes of them, so warding them would make most sense. Trying to outguess who the murderer is going to target has a very low chance of success, so I don't recommend warding at random.

The ten players who cannot have fetishes of them are below. They can be warded, but they are not in danger of being killed, so they should not be resuscitated (except Wraith, who may have been stalked by Benmage).

Andrius
Benmage
El Goosuki
Iecerint
Nicodemus
nopointinactingup
Seacore
Triglav
Trilobite
Wraith

This is a decent night to

Resuscitate

someone. There are fifteen potential targets who can be targeted by cult, based on reported noises and excluding the ten players above. Choose someone you believe to be town, and try to be unpredictable in your choice. The odds favor the cult succeeding in their kill, but we don't want to make that easy. (I know MoI is still here, he is probably our lynch, but he is not dead yet.)

AurorusVox
Baby Spice
Feysal
Furcolow
Furpants_Tom
hitogoroshi
kunkstar7
MagnaofIllusion
Plum
SpyreX
totallynotmafia
VasudeVa
VP Baltar
Wickedestjr
xvart
Wraith (no fetish, but possibly stalked by Benmage)

This is a good night to

Investigate

, but do not choose anyone known to be bloody, that would be a waste of forensic tools. The following players are bloody:

Feysal
nopointinactingup
Wickedestjr

This is a good night to

Commune

, but do not choose anyone known to have more insanities than you do, that would be a waste of your Occult Books. Also, do not commune anyone who is assigned graves to rob. Remember that communing causes you to gain an insanity, which you have to report tomorrow. The following players have insanities:

Andrius (1)
Benmage (2)
Seacore (1)
Wickedestjr (1)
Wraith (1)

Do not take the

Rob Grave

option, unless you have been assigned specific graves to rob. Doing this would only get you an extra insanity, and grave robbing is not a valid excuse for having unexplained insanities.

Do not choose

Stalk

or

Murder

. While stalking and murderering can confirm a town, it’s best to do it on a later day when the murderer wincon is virtually impossible to achieve for someone starting out.

If we discover a player who murdered and attempt to conceal such from the town, we will assume they are aiming for the murderer win condition and lynch them.

Do not be that player, we don't need another Benmage.

Spoiler: What happens if I get an Insanity?

Insanities happen. Maybe you were killed and resuscitated, maybe you got passed a fetish of yourself. Here are the insanities you are

forbidden

from taking:

Hallucination
Suicidal
Sadism
Denial
Mutilation
Distraction
Necrophilia
Paranoid

Having any of these insanities will be treated as a Cultist/Murderer claim.

Remember, you will be claiming any actions that gave you insanities, so

Twitchy

is a solid first insanity for you to take. Twitchy is only detrimental to those who wish to conceal their insanities – you have nothing to hide.

This list will likely be amended as the days pass. Voice ideas for insanity amendments in thread - but do it BEFORE night falls.

Spoiler: What should be included in my first post of the day?

For your first post, copy and paste this code:

Code: Select all

[area=CD3]Username:
Did you Hear Noise?
Did you Ward? If so, who?
Did you gain Insanities, and if so, which ones and from what actions?
List all of the insanities you currently have:
Did you [b]successfully[/b] resuscitate? If so, who?
Were you murdered?
Did you Commune or Investigate? If so, who, and what result? (Note that these are both poor N1 choices.)
Twitch?[/area]

Which will give you this:

CD3

Username:
Did you Hear Noise?
Did you Ward? If so, who?
Did you gain Insanities, and if so, which ones and from what actions?
List all of the insanities you currently have:
Did you

successfully

resuscitate? If so, who?
Were you murdered?
Did you Commune or Investigate? If so, who, and what result? (Note that these are both poor N1 choices.)
Twitch?

Fill this out and include it in your first post of the day.

I copied much of this from hitogoroshi's guide, and updated it as I saw fit. Any corrections and comments are welcome.

Preview edit: VP Baltar beat me to it. I'll post my version anyway, there are some notable differences in the night actions part we can discuss.

[VP Baltar]

You don't gain an insanity from laundering unless you're not bloody when you do it, and I'm not sure why anyone who's not bloody would chose to do so.

Yeah, you're right, good catch. That's what I get for skimming. Without that, commune is a generally good action to take. There aren't really any actions that we don't know about then that should be causing insanities for people.

[Seacore]

I think the night guides, particularly Fey's, are good. There should be no excuse this time. Not following the night guide should equate to death.

In my skim throughs I noticed MoI voting for himself. This makes him look much scummier to me, even though the 'inevitability' of his lynch means he might just be frustrated town, I think it's also possible that it's scum who is trying to shut down effective night planning by ending the day early.
So, while I'll wait for the flip for my official "I was wrong", I'm silently thinking that already.

VP, can you organise a good grave rob plan to go with your guide? Since, even though I based the one I posted off of yours, I can't be trusted to do it, apparently.

[Furpants_Tom]

I'm not sure where you got that number. Even at completely random, with a modest estimate of five people resuscitating last night and knowing Wickedestjr was resuscitated, the odds of two people doing it are around 41% (1-((7/8)^4)). Factoring in the PoE, the odds should be close to even. Considering this, I'm not eager to suspect you, either.

OK, but if there's a 41% chance of it happening by accident, that means there's a 59% chance it didn't happen by accident. Right? And therefore a 29.5% chance of each one of you being scum. If there's a 30% chance of someone being scum, I'd argue that's probably a good person to lynch. However, assuming one of you is a townie, you know that the other person has a 59% likelihood of being scum. So what's with the mutual admiration?

Re: Night Guides

I think VP's resus list is superior, because it excludes people who have been warded. If cult kills someone who was supposedly warded on the night they heard noise, we've caught a liar, which is good news for us. Whereas if they kill someone with unclaimed noise, we learn nothing additional. So if you're holding a medkit and feel the urge, please to be resuscitating someone on VP's list rather than Feysal's.

However, I agree with Feysal's other advice. If you have equipment, use it instead of going for more. Maybe you feel you made the wrong choice last night, but the more offensive or defensive town actions we have in the mix at this stage, the more likely we are to trip up the cult. If you can commune, please do.

Warding is also something of a crapshoot at this stage - you may be better off picking up some occult books if you don't already have equipment; or a medkit, since we're two down.

I do disagree about laundering. Wicked remaining bloody is bad - he could be LB's killer, and giving him a ticket to ride tonight and tomorrow could mean another difficult-to-detect murder. NPAU and Feysal probably aren't; but there's a good chance that one of them is cult; and if so will likely take part in the ritual again tonight, with their defensible blood-stains. A clean town is a safe town.

[Seacore]

I completely agree with Tom's comment about blood. If you have announced you are bloody, launder. Launder resolves before investigate which means that anybody who is discovered with blood has some explaining to do.

[Seacore]

@Ice, your definitive list, does it take into account people you suspect as future murderers, or is it an investigator vs cultist scenario?

Also, while I'm addressing you directly, I think your concern about cultists warding bodies is over-rated. (Not insincere, it's just nothing to worry about). Graverobbing is a free-action, warding a body is an action that causes an insanity. This will tie up the cultists, and if they want to ritual on top of that, that's two insanity points they get.
Next night, we'll spread out our graverobbing and it'll be even harder for them to stop it, we'll have lost only one day in flips and they'll have given themselves a shit load of insanity across the board.

In fact, I encourage them to ward.

[Feysal]

OK, but if there's a 41% chance of it happening by accident, that means there's a 59% chance it didn't happen by accident. Right? And therefore a 29.5% chance of each one of you being scum. If there's a 30% chance of someone being scum, I'd argue that's probably a good person to lynch. However, assuming one of you is a townie, you know that the other person has a 59% likelihood of being scum. So what's with the mutual admiration?

You are basically correct. However, the 41% chance was at completely random, which our choices were not. When you factor in the process of elimination, the odds are probably closer to 50%. From my personal point of view, that is the statistical probability of nopoint being cult. Now... if I were to push for him to be lynched based on that, the best case scenario would be that he is cult and I am completely cleared. The worst case is that he is town, I end up lynched next, and we have two mislynches. Rather than risk that, I'd prefer both of us being communed to avoid that risk completely.

Besides, 29.5% chance of being cult, from the town point of view, is not very high. There are 7 cultists alive with 25 players, which gives a 28% chance of randomly picking cult.

I think VP's resus list is superior, because it excludes people who have been warded.

I think you're mistaken. The only difference between our lists is that mine includes VasudeVa, VP Baltar himself, Wickedestjr and xvart, none of whom have been warded. VP Baltar and xvart heard noise yesterday, VasudeVa today. The cult also does not lose their fetish when the ritual fails, so there must still be a fetish of Wickedestjr. I remember seeing that question asked before.

I do disagree about laundering. Wicked remaining bloody is bad - he could be LB's killer, and giving him a ticket to ride tonight and tomorrow could mean another difficult-to-detect murder. NPAU and Feysal probably aren't; but there's a good chance that one of them is cult; and if so will likely take part in the ritual again tonight, with their defensible blood-stains. A clean town is a safe town.

Fair enough. Then I should launder tonight, unless I have to double rob.

[VP Baltar]

VP, can you organise a good grave rob plan to go with your guide? Since, even though I based the one I posted off of yours, I can't be trusted to do it, apparently.

For the record, I thought your latest grave rob plan was a fine incarnation of my version. Maybe we should take a town vote on whether people support this plan or Wicked's version. We need to be clear on what plan we follow tonight regardless, but I still feel that forcing the scummiest two players behind the lynchee to rob is the best course of action.

[Seacore]

I agree. Given that MoI is today's lynch, I think we can assume that Kunk and ElG are the two we find guiltiest.

VP, I ask you to do it because the fact that it was coming from me was providing ammunition for disagreeing with it.

[Seacore]

Okay everybody

Vote A -
RC = VP, Kunk
Fate = Benmage, El G
LB = Wicked, El G
MoI = Hito, Kunk

or

Vote B
ReaperCharlie - Feysal and nopointinactingup
Fate - Feysal and nopointinactingup
Lost Butterfly - Wickedestjr and Andrius
MoI - Wickedestjr and Andrius


A summary of the arguments
Vote A seems to be geared towards our 4 towniest players robbing one grave each, to ensure that cultists don't get a run at grave dust. The second component is the two scummiest people, as voted by investigators, robbing two graves each, to tie them up should they actually be scum. If either grave robbers get an item, they know the other didn't rob the grave and can report back. If scum lie and say they picked up an item just to mislynch the other, we'll catch them during the flip. It is therefore essential that town MUST follow the plan

Vote B seems geared towards pitting the two resus claimers against each other, probably assuming one is cult and the other is town. I have no idea why Andrius is involved, perhaps that's Wicked's pick of scum.

I think vote A is best, and I vote that


Seacore: Vote A

We've got a couple of days to get a tally. We'll post the winner before the deadline/hammer.

[AurorusVox]

Hmm. A major disadvantage of B is that Feysal & NPAU won't be able to launder, which as has just been raised, is pretty important. My vote goes to A. Let's just hope El G pays attention this time.

A - 2 (Seacore, AurorusVox)
B - 0

^If people do this when they vote it should help keep the tally going.