Objection Redux - It's all over bar the shouting!

[vezokpiraka]

unvote
vote DTM

I don't want to let the scums have a double NK

[DTMaster]

I am reading from Iso at the moment. I'll reread this again looking more closely at the time stamps then.

[DTMaster]

Assuming worst case scenario that I die today: It's 3 town turn over with 2 additional to the second night if both nks hit only town. Therefore: WCS - 5 town death turn over. With 11 people, this puts it at 6 left. In a 3 man scum team that's 4:2. A 4 man scum team is 3:3.

If I don't die today and scum chooses not to kill me: WCS leads to 3 town deaths and 8 people alive. 3 man scum team leads to 2:6 and 4 man leads to 3:5.
In a 4 man team, we'd need to lynch and have the second kill hit scum successfully to win. In a 3 man team, we only need to hit scum once with a lynch or a kill. If we lynch scum in a 3 man team scenario:

1:6 -> 1:4 and 1:2 if both shots hit town.

The conditions that I assume, is that the second kill will always be present (no role shananigans, no vigs thinking about not shooting).

Up to you guys. I'm going to finish my analysis after some sleep :p

[Fate]

Oh cool Spyrex and mango are the final scum.

Vezok, vote mango, did you forget I was still alive?

[vezokpiraka]

unvote
vote mango

Sorry Fate I forgot about that.

[UncertainKitten]

Considering DT claimed a role that basically NEEDS to die at some point, I think its a fair bet that DT is town.

While I'd grant that, there's also the fact that living a few days can be valuable in and of itself as scum, even if you are putting a timer on your death. That said, I think PZ was just playing dumbly and I misread it as scum.

@Fate: Why is SpyreX scum? If I understand the workings of DT's role correctly, they're proposing a correct lynch. Or is it something else?

[magnus_orion]

Vezok. Reads. Now.
@Fate: Spyrex!?!?!

[Ellibereth]

TADA SAT'S ARE ALL DONE.
gloves coming off VERY SOOON .

[Faraday]

Vote count 2.4

Ellibereth (3)

GammaGooey, Sociopath, UncertainKitten

magnus_orion (3)

Fate, AlmasterGM, Vezokpiraka

AlmasterGM (1)

DTMaster

DTMaster (1)

SpyreX

Not voting (3):

Jahudo , Ellibereth, magnus_orion

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline's 17th of December at 3pm GMT.

[Ellibereth]

Oh wow I just noticed rhino flipped scum. >.<

[Ellibereth]

scum in {VV, MO, UK, Vezok, Jahudo}

K, there's scum here.

ACTUALLY, people calling me town are really wierd.
Since I haven't done shit.
Pika was drunk though so that's ok

TOWN
Fate
DTM
UK
Pika
Elli
Vezo <- I'm sorta paranoid here though

*Jahudo
*Socio
*SpyreX
*Magnus
*GammaGooey

I need to narrow down the bottom few, please hoooold more.

[Ellibereth]

Elli doesn't talk much normally

WHERE ARE YOU GETTING THIS META???
Rhino said the same tihng too...
SCUM QT?

[magnus_orion]

Games I've played with you. Liar Game... that one where I was an invisible SK, the other objection game....

[Ellibereth]

oh yeah.
WELL
It wasn't my usual meta.
I was more like the beginning of the other objection game for a while.
Then real life got it. It SHOULD BE averaging out now though.
Why do people think you're scum again?

[magnus_orion]

idk. It's hard for me to understand. Socio has a legit reason to vote me based on meta. Vezok seems to be voting me cause Fate's voting me, and Fate is voting me because........ *shrug*

[Ellibereth]

Jah, do you think vezok is town or scum.

[SpyreX]

Jesus h fate I swear. Ellie too.

Unless someone wants to claim that shot back up offs.

So, at least have the courtesy to call me an SK if you're going that route. Which, of course, I'm not.

[SocioPath]

Lynching DTM is a stupid move at this point.

Oh cool Spyrex and mango are the final scum.

Oh cool it was that obvious.
But not "FINAL" scum.

Here is a heads up.
If everyone was the role that they claimed, then it would pan out like this:

If scum wanted their second night, then they would have to kill DTM, who does nothing but grant a second night. Buy one kill get one free.

But that would give spy the "vig" 2 nights of killing before even worrying about not popping back up into the next day.

So lynching DTM would net this for the next cycle: 1 "liability" lynch, 1 vig kill, 1 scum kill.
So 1 net "town" controlled kill.
And 1 scum aimed kill.

NOT lynching DTM today would net: 1 lynch, 1 "liability" scum kill, 1 vig kill...second night: 1 scum kill, 1 vig kill.
Sooooo 3 net "town" controlled kills.
1 useless liability scum kill, and 1 actual scum aimed kill.

GEE.
Scum shooting DTM is actually worse off for them at this point, barring other outside factors.

Soooo...spy the "vig" is not really that vig at all, given the DTM push.

[UncertainKitten]

...what the fuck Socio, why are you making sense? You aren't supposed to make sense!

Unvote, Vote SpyreX

[UncertainKitten]

WAIT, fuck, I forgot. I don't think DT's ability activates upon being lynched...That said I think the logic still works :S...

[SocioPath]

The logic was based off of that fact.
That is what makes the realizations work.

So quick to agree without even reading in context.

[UncertainKitten]

...DERP, I misread it, actually. For some reason I thought you were posting it with two nights, and I was looking at the net gains of lynching as if they were for an ADDITIONAL night.

So I guess I DID grasp the idea without grasping it :S.

[magnus_orion]

yeah, it definitely works. I just don't think it follows that Spyrex is scum. I wish I could find better problem with the reasoning than that I don't think spyrex thought it all the way through, because I think spyrex is town. That aside, I do know that the worst case scenario today is that we lynch the vig:

town lynches vig -1 town
scum kill dtm -1 town
scum kill -1 town
3 dead town
0 dead scum
0 additional


So,
its a fact that there is a, presumably not-mafia, killing role that killed rhinox, so this role exists.
its a fact that spyrex claimed the kill, and the accompanying role.
its a fact that spyrex hasn't been counterclaimed.
If these facts do not change than the worst thing we could do is lynch spyrex.
I think the best thing we could do is not lynch spyrex without a counterclaim, and if there is one, have the two "vigs" kill each other, so we don't accidentally lynch the wrong one:

town lynches not dtm not vig player: -1 player
scum kills vig vig kills scum: -1 town -1 scum
town lynches not dtm: -1 player
scum kills dtm -1 town
scum kills -1 town
3 dead town
1 dead scum
2 additional

OR

town lynches not dtm not vig player: -1 player
scum kills dtm vig kills scum: -1 town -1 scum
scum kills vig vig kills: -1 town -1 player
town lynches: -1 player
scum kills: -1 town
3 dead town
1 dead scum
3 additional

[SocioPath]

hat aside, I do know that the worst case scenario today is that we lynch the vig:

Hence my lack of vote switching.

Just because someone is scum, doesn't necessarily mean that they are a good lynch depending on the gameflow point of time.

I just like finding all the scum now, and then sorting out the whos and whats of how it is to be handled to take account all of the actions that potentially could go wrong.

[magnus_orion]

Also, sociopath's recent attack feels more scum motivated than town. While its a fact that its better not to lynch dtm, he's decided to use this fact to establish why spyrex's opinions were motivated by a desire to hurt the town, as opposed to merely establishing why this course of action is better. Taking into consideration that it wasn't immediately obvious that no lynching dtm was the better option, this attack thus seems to take a baseless level of assumed malicious intent on spyrex's part.
Although sociopath also just continued to vote elli, so his position is sort of confusing as well.

preview edit: Okay, that explains the lack of vote on spyrex, but doesn't explain how spyrex could possibly be scum without a counterclaim, since you do state that spyrex is scum, but the reason for not lynching him, which you just acknowledged, assumes him to be the vig (ie. not scum), in absence of a counterclaim.