The Return to Liten (Game Over)

AlmasterGM · Post Post #1300 (ISO) » Thu Jan 06, 2011 9:47 am

And if Furry or camm is scum we lost anyway, so.

chesskid3 · Post Post #1301 (ISO) » Thu Jan 06, 2011 9:48 am

Unvote

Vote: Thor

CES vote is wasted >_<
pick one of me or thor if you aren't going to put it on Almaster

camn · Post Post #1302 (ISO) » Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:32 pm

Lets do it.

UNVOTE
VOTE: THOR

AlmasterGM · Post Post #1303 (ISO) » Thu Jan 06, 2011 3:38 pm

Unvote, vote: Thor

chesskid3 · Post Post #1304 (ISO) » Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:19 pm

Furry should give reads pre-hammer
because blam blam blam i'm killing her tonight

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #1305 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:18 am

Chess wrote:iirc Thor is one of the players on MoI's revenge list for killing him N1 in the past
wouldn't surprise me if he were unwilling to do it againb ecause he felt bad?

1. You don’t recall correctly. Thor, to my knowledge, has never participated in a N1 kill on me.
2. Thor isn’t someone who would leave a player alive for ‘emotional’ reasons like others here on MS, IMO.

--

@Thor

– I’d like to see your thoughts on what has happened since your last post

--

AGM wrote:Magna if you lynch me and I flip town who do you lynch next?
Also, if I flip scum and the game isn't over who do you lynch?

Since you finally got around to answering

If you are lynched and turn out Town I’d be looking at those who didn’t have a good reason for being on your wagon or those who campaigned hard against your lynch. Chess is so far the only player I see in that pool.

If you are lynched and turn out Scum and the game didn’t end I’d be poring through your ISO for those players who

A. Were under some pressure and you pulled a Hacker fence-sitting on.
B. Players under zero pressure you more or less completely ignored.

Of course I’d go through the VC analysis again to see where people stand. Especially Day 1.

AGM wrote:THREE. POSTS. That's it. I ADMIT that it's mostly gut right now and not based on evidence, I say that I think there's a link between you and chesskid (and thus lynching chesskid would confirm or deny that suspicion), and then I throw out some LOLOBV-WIFOM and vote for somebody else.

And the right after them you say that I'm "pushing your lynch."

I love the little bit that you are ignoring about your behavior – this is exactly what you did with Slaxx / Chesskid. You called them scummy while pushing another case (Twomz) and then when they questioned you about it you threw up your “I’m hardly pushing your lynch, I’m not even voting for you LOLOLO” sthick.

Yet here we are and you’ve today been strongly pushing Chess. Do you not see how, given you behavior pattern, I think your soft attacks are a pre-cursor to behavior down the line? I'd rather deal with it up-front because I find that sort of behavior scum-tastic.

AGM wrote:And of course, all of this just makes me want to see a chesskid flip more, because if chesskid flips scum then we have MoI sitting here 1) defending the scum and 2) forming a massive wall-of-text counterwagon on someone who he used to think was town because the guy had a microscopic gut read on him and didn't think he was obvtown like everyone else.

1. So if Chess is lynched and flips Town your suspicion via linkage isn’t valid? Since this is the first time you’ve articulated said linkage so I want to be clear where you stand.
2. How, given the behavior I’ve described, is your ‘gut’ read in any way microscopic? Aside from Chess I am the only one you are bothering to call scum at all. Looks like everyone else is a Town read for you. Except for your little foray into 'Why isn't CES scummy' that I address later.
3. I’ve articulated in a pretty clear case (which you didn’t even bother to address, BTW) why I think you are scum. I fully admit I’ve changed my read on you. As I’ve said, that read was 100% based on early VC analysis position. More data has come in and looking at your ISO I don’t see Town predicated behavior to back that up.

AGM wrote:Also, I find it INCREDIBLY ironic that you continually demand I "Put out or shut up" and produce evidence of your scuminess ... and then you proceed to post this:
Sup double standard.

This is laughable. I’ve CLEARLY laid out, in thread, why I find you suspicious. You’ve either ignored or attempted to hand-wave away my cases.

You’ve shown nothing in regards to why you suspect me. No showing how I’m linked to Chess. Just saying ‘gut’ doesn’t cut it this far into the game.

So it’s hardly a double standard when I actually provide a case on you but you refuse to do the same and when pressed consistently about it retreat into ‘it was a microscopic gut’ stance.

AGM wrote:Also, I don't get how CES got a totally free pass. From what I've seen, he lurked until he got called out, dumped a ton of crap, and pretty much went back to lurking.

As has been addressed CES is 95% confirmed Town not at all based on his play, which is sub-par, but his claim that Scum Hacker confirmed. It’s not likely that scum with daytalk would bother to rope one of their own into a Neighborhood.

You quick back-off when reminded of basic facts looks somewhat like keeping your ‘options’ on who to attack open.

AGM wrote:And then MoI is just going to dissapear into a giant text wall because that's what he does, and there will probably be some mislynch engineered on Thor or something and it'll be game over.

AGM wrote:You know, I could actually get on board with that.

Because it still leaves us enough time to determine your AND MoI's alignment.

DOES NOT COMPUTE

.

You argue that Thor is Town and some mislynch attempt will be made on him and then Chess, you ‘top’ scum-read suggests lynching him and you agree? And jump on the wagon?

Cognitive Dissonance in full bloom right here.

Confirm Vote: AGM

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #1306 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:13 am

Spoiler: Raw Day 1 Data

AlmasterGM · Post Post #1307 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 6:58 am

Magna wrote:Since you finally got around to answering

If you are lynched and turn out Town I’d be looking at those who didn’t have a good reason for being on your wagon or those who campaigned hard against your lynch. Chess is so far the only player I see in that pool.

If you are lynched and turn out Scum and the game didn’t end I’d be poring through your ISO for those players who

A. Were under some pressure and you pulled a Hacker fence-sitting on.
B. Players under zero pressure you more or less completely ignored.

Of course I’d go through the VC analysis again to see where people stand. Especially Day 1.

This is really all I feel the need to respond to, because it shows that you have a fundamentally flawed approach to catching scum in this game.

Your "if I flip town" argument is bad because nobody except yourself has any reason for being on my wagon. chess is on because he's chess, Furry is on because of a "sneaking suspicion," and camm is on because of this arbitrary "40% chance" number she threw out there. So this analysis gets you nowhere. It's also bad because the only person to refuse to vote for me has been CES, who you just said has a 90% chance of being town. Lastly, it's bad because it presumes that you are always right (e.g., why the hell wouldn't we look at the person who campaigned for the mislynch, aka you) and can never be wrong, which shows you are not being objective.

Your I flip scum argument is are problematic because they pick-and-choose based on YOUR concept of how scum should play and not the meta of how I ACTUALLY play as scum. I've been mafia three times, and I bussed hardcore every single time. If I was scum in this game, I would have been continuing that thread by out-of-the-blue bussing SO. Your suggestion that we then look at "the people I ignored" despite alllll the evidence pointing the other way shows that you have zero grasp on what is actually going on and want to apply a generic "one size fits all" lens to every scumhunting situation.

I think there was a thread in MD a while back about how you have to read people, not tells, because tells are unreliable and can be manipulated, whereas human behavior is ingrained and difficult to change. You completely fail to grasp this concept, and it is why all your arguments are false and I am not scum.

Thor665 · Post Post #1308 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:04 am

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Thor wrote:Okay, two problems with his logic (and, honestly, probably more if we were both smarter). I disagreed with the logic, I never claimed total brilliance in everything that was wrong with it. I do think it's reasonable to expect a scum on that HH bus though I'll agree it's not an absolute and it's even worse to presume brilliance in knowing where on the bus they were.
If you think there are 2 remaining scum I can see why you think there may have been bussing.

In the case of only 1 remaining scum do you think it likely?

Eh, depends on who the scum is. Some players bus more aggressive than others. I reckon if there was only one final scum than it would depend on how many town points they thought they could walk away from with the bus and/or how they thought the wagon would turn out - if they thought it might not happen they could stay off and maybe try to keep the buddy and earlier win.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
@Thor
– I’d like to see your thoughts on what has happened since your last post

No doubt, that's what catch up posts after V/LAs are for, yes?

I still actually have no idea what the case on me is other than a belief that I hard defended two buddies back to back from lynch and a *whole* lot of confirmation bias. People have just had my name mentioned in the suspect pool often enough that I think I've elevated beyond what the case actually merits - I'd LOVE to see someone prove me wrong on this.

AGM's vote shift, as you noted, doesn't make sense in his own narrative. Camm makes sense, and it's pointless to try to peg Chess' mentality there.

@CES - I actually like the incidental tell you pulled on AGM (forgetting the neighbor business) what are your thoughts on MoI's tell on AGM (following scumread Chess' plan to vote Thor, who AGM had just gotten done calling town not a few posts prior)

@AGM - sorta same question, you called me town with MoI and Chess as scumbags - and then when ChessScum was like 'hey, let's lynch Thor' you voted right away. Whassup?

@Furry - have you weighed in on MoI yet? I know you think AGM is scum, are you a MoItown man consequently or not?

AlmasterGM · Post Post #1309 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:36 am

Thor wrote:@AGM - sorta same question, you called me town with MoI and Chess as scumbags - and then when ChessScum was like 'hey, let's lynch Thor' you voted right away. Whassup?

Because it's me versus you and I know I'm town, so I'm going to vote you. Even though I would vastly prefer a chesskid lynch.

Besides, if you look at the full context of me calling you town, I didn't say, "I have a towntell on Thor," I said, "I think MoI and chesskid are scum so Thor isn't by PoE." Buuuuut chesskid lynch isn't happening so I never get access to that juicy data.

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #1310 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:45 am

Wreckage of the

Silver Ducky

Non-colonized Sector 1, UTP Planet Liten, Tynnfred System
December 5th, 2486 SC (Day 5, Month 15 LC)
0416 hours SST (0044 hours LLT3)

At long last, Dylan, Kestrel, and Bill reached the wreckage site. Sara stood waiting for them.

"Good, you're all alive," she said. She looked at Bill, hanging valiantly to Dylan and Kestrel's shoulders. "How bad it is, Bill?"

"Feels better than it did after the crash," he grunted. "I think I can get by with painkillers."

"You sure?"

"Yes, Sara."

Both Kestrel and Dylan stared at Bill, but said nothing.

"All right, then you go grab the comm equipment, Bill," Sara ordered. "Dylan, Kestrel, get your packs and whatever else you can. There'll be Arkons looking for us, so we need to clear the area ASAP."

The two operatives nodded and let go of Bill. He hissed as his injured leg hit the ground, but he was able to limp away to find the medical equipment.

"Find Chuck," Sara informed him. "He's treating Furry's leg, so he's probably got some medical stuff."

"Thanks." Bill limped behind a large piece of wreckage.

Ten Liten minutes later, everyone was gathered together just outside the wreckage. Furry, her leg bandaged but still too heavily injured for travel, was in Chuck's arms again; everyone else carried not only their own packs, but as much essential equipment as they could carry, including the communications equipment, the medical equipment, the Nutcracker, and the all-important IED.

"We've got as much as we could, Sara," Dylan reported.

"Excellent. All right, Meggidos, here's the plan: we're going to keep to the cliff wall and travel at least out of sight of the wreckage. Once we have done so, we'll try to establish contact with the

Deborah

. Are we clear?"

As one, the others shouted, "Aye!"

"Then let's move out!"

Vote Count 5.4

(3) Thor665: chesskid3, camn, AlmasterGM
(1) AlmasterGM: MagnaofIllusion
(1) chesskid3: Furry
(1) Furry: Cogito Ergo Sum

Not Voting: Thor665

With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.
The deadline is on

Monday, January 10th, 2011 at 2:00 p.m. CST.

(Note the time change to several hours later than the previous deadline.)

chesskid3 · Post Post #1311 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:58 am

AlmasterGM wrote:
Thor wrote:@AGM - sorta same question, you called me town with MoI and Chess as scumbags - and then when ChessScum was like 'hey, let's lynch Thor' you voted right away. Whassup?
Because it's me versus you and I know I'm town, so I'm going to vote you. Even though I would vastly prefer a chesskid lynch.

Besides, if you look at the full context of me calling you town, I didn't say, "I have a towntell on Thor," I said, "I think MoI and chesskid are scum so Thor isn't by PoE." Buuuuut chesskid lynch isn't happening so I never get access to that juicy data.

I'll tell you anyway
I flip town.
Go analyze now

Cogito Ergo Sum · Post Post #1312 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 11:37 am

Thor wrote:what are your thoughts on MoI's tell on AGM (following scumread Chess' plan to vote Thor, who AGM had just gotten done calling town not a few posts prior)

Not convinced; given the caveat he noted that first post and the context of him going along with Chess I think a drive for self-preservation is a satisfactory explanation.

Thor665 · Post Post #1313 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:17 pm

So we're admitting the case on me is self-preservation (Almaster) Chess reasoning (Chess) and whatever camm's case is?
There is something stupid in the force here.

@camm - what's the case for Thorscum? I want it.

@Almaster - besides self-preservation I made it to your top three, what's your logic? State the case on one of your top 3 please.

Vote: Magna of Illusion

chesskid3 · Post Post #1314 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:22 pm

Nikanor(town), Thor, DanielofManyNumbers(town), SquareOb(scum), LMP(town), ApCakes(town), Furry(town), Bowser(WHO THE HELL IS THIS GUY)

Bowser was an Untrod Tripod-CSL hydra. CSL left the hydra, so UT started posting under his own account.

FoS: Thor
this was a dana wagon
Thor's slot is a nice scum slot
there's my case

Cogito Ergo Sum · Post Post #1315 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:24 pm

Just fyi, you're misspelling camn, Thor.

Thor665 · Post Post #1316 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:58 pm

@chess - that was a list of six people on a wagon that needed, what, ten for a lynch. Meh. Seems just as logical to presume one scum hopped on after four town pressured.

@CES - shhhh, maybe she won't notice.

camn · Post Post #1317 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:13 pm

Oh, I noticed.

I also noticed your faux-disregard of your impending death.
I ALSO ALSO noticed you are skimming and must have missed

THORSCUM CASE PART 1

camn wrote:
ALL THAT SAID
: I am totally willing to persue other options.
Like yourself, Thor. you are next on my list.
The Idea that MagofIllusion is a better lynch than chesskid makes my brain want to explode... you proposing it gets you massive scumpoints in my book. Especially given the WAY you presented it. Let us revisit it:
Thor665 wrote:My immediate gut is that I'd rather lynch MoI or Almaster over chess, I'm pretty sure chess is town.
YOu would rather lynch one of the most pro-town players over the most anti-town player BASED ON GUT??? If you are going to make that kind of claim, I need a case. AGM started it for you. Although I hate that argument.. it is better than the nothing you brought..and he even asked for discussion of the topic. Hmm.
Thor665 wrote:I could do some vote analysis to see if my gut has any water, or I could claim laziness, have MoI yell at me, and wait for him to provide the vote count posts with Hackerscum worked in anyway What to do, what to do...
Here you recognize that you are playing in a suboptimal way... all the while giving yourself an 'out' later on if your accusations don't take hold.
This is very, VERY wishy-washy, and not the way to get anyone lynched.

and

THORSCUMCASE PART 2

camn wrote:
The question I am asking my self is this:
What was going on in the scum QT when Hacker gave up?
Did he say "I'm gonna argue my way out of this, buddy... so just hold off on the bussing"
or did he say "Shit. I am fucked. Good luck with the rest of the game"

I think the second one.
And I think his buddy jumped right on the bus.

Furry seemed to pile on.. . but he had a vote on already.
Chesskid flipped from tunnelling me to voting
with
me, implicitly agreeing with my case while calling for my vigging. (1152 and 1153 are also relevant)
Thor drops the hammer.

----

My conclusion?

at least one Scum are in {Furry, Chesskid, THor }

I like
Furry
. I think Furry's play is good. But looking at yesterday alone is slightly scumtastic. Trying to dump the lynch onto chesskid at the last moment? slightly questionable IF CHESS IS TOWN (which is a big IF). We would really need a chessflip to decide that though. As it stands, he is the least likely of the three to be scum, imo.

Chess
I don't like. I think he is a detriment to the town regardless of alignment. I was leaning town on his predecessor IIRC, but as I said earlier, I would support a lynch here. In fact, the more I look at his play yesterday, the more I think he might actually be scum.. not just a bad player.

Thor
... thor could be scum. He didn't >quite< seem to muster enough Hacker-Hate to sound TOTALLY like a buss.. But he is certainly in the running. NOt as scummy as chess yesterday.. but today . . meh.

If I were the only one voting, I would eliminate these three.... in this order: chess/thor/furry.. until I hit scum. Then reevaluate.

chesskid3 · Post Post #1318 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:18 pm

FURRY IS TOWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Thor665 · Post Post #1319 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 6:01 pm

@camn - so the case is I want to lynch MoI on gut which is a weak case, you thought I left an "out" in one comment I made, and that I maybe sorta sounded like a bus on Hacker? I don't think I missed much of a case with all due regard.

chesskid3 · Post Post #1320 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 6:18 pm

oh burnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Thor665 · Post Post #1321 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 6:22 pm

For the record, your case on me is still worse, and at least camn figured out that if you're town it helps if you look town to the town.

camn · Post Post #1322 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:00 pm

Oh, fun! YOu have resorted to snark, rather than actual defense!

Lets take it slow.
DO you contest my conclusion? This one?
"at least one Scum are in {Furry, Chesskid, THor }"

chesskid3 · Post Post #1323 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:04 pm

If thor flips town
I contest it

Thor665 · Post Post #1324 (ISO) » Sat Jan 08, 2011 7:28 am

camn wrote:Oh, fun! YOu have resorted to snark, rather than actual defense!

Lets take it slow.
DO you contest my conclusion? This one?
"at least one Scum are in {Furry, Chesskid, THor }"

Snark is not anti-town, it's a way of showing disagreement so

. If the snark is bad address the base logic behind the snark, because the snark comes from that and the logic was presented.

I see your conclusion of the three to not be unreasonable, but I find the other two to be town reads of varying strengths and the last to be me - so in general I disagree with you, yes.