Nintendo Mafia (Game Over)

[wierdalexv]

The 'slashed to death' flavor is missing for nights 2 & 4, so I'm kind of assuming that it's Dekes' JOAT-kill.

On me claiming a bounty hunter, Samus is the main character and wouldn't really fit 3rd Party, as she is always working for the good guys.

[Bunnylover]

@Kdub: I"m not ignoring it. I see it, but I also see that if Thil is lying then we did not have a cop this game. If having no cop in games are pretty common, then I'll reconsider my stand point, but I don't think it is common.
But it could be possible for a 3 man scum team, and a 2 man scum team. Go look at A storm of swords, there were a scum team of 4 people then one of 3.

@PB: DemonHybrid, Esurio, Weird, GW, then Thil.

[GhostWriter]

Yeah, I really didn't remember that at all, actually, but it sort of proves my point: That game had not only town PR's, but an enemy scum team as well.

[thil13]

Prod dodge (I figure I'm about due for one). Doing this from my phone so a decent post will come tomorrow. Working has gotten in the way of my computer time...

[Kdub]

@Kdub: I"m not ignoring it. I see it, but I also see that if Thil is lying then we did not have a cop this game. If having no cop in games are pretty common, then I'll reconsider my stand point, but I don't think it is common.
But it could be possible for a 3 man scum team, and a 2 man scum team. Go look at A storm of swords, there were a scum team of 4 people then one of 3.

Two scum teams is a possibility, but it would pretty much have to be 14:3:3 I think. A 2-man scumteam in a game this size would be an unusual design choice. I still think an SK is more likely than a second mafia though.

Yeah, I really didn't remember that at all, actually, but it sort of proves my point: That game had not only town PR's, but an enemy scum team as well.

And this game has town PRs and apparently either an enemy scum team or SK. So what? I should note that if you are scum, it doesn't necessarily show that the scum team has a tracker specifically, just an ability that could have seen lew. Watcher is a possibility as well.

[lewarcher82]

if there were two scum teams, there may be two RBs... this is a brainfucker. I hope this is not the case and will proceed with the scum+sk hypothesis, at least for the time being.

@everyone: I think esurio is right about dekes. Dekes mentioned the actions he took at night. Why would he not mention the JOAT vigging of a scum player? It would have confirmed his alignment or forced some scum to fake a cc. I first thought that weirdalexv/cp' hyper-cautious game is likely the game of a SK. I then realised that on night two one of the killign party, likely the mafia or one mafia, did not kill, which gives us 3 options: (1) they hit the protected player, (2) they hit the same player as the other killing party, (3) they hit a night immune SK. If option 3 were correct (about 1/3 chance, but Ythan claimed protecting RC, who was not a likely target for mafia after day 2, imo), I think that it is likely they were trying to attack the voting bloc, and there are two members who did not claim their role, esurio and CP/weirdalexv. This is the reason why I said there was a chance the Sk was hiding in the block. Finally, weirdalexv claims the name of a bounty killer. Still, he surprisingly misses the evidence about who killed whom, probably pretending not to see the identity of flavour. And even more surprisingly, he states that there is no vig, while his name would very much suggest a killing party. I can hardly imagine a character name that is likelier to be a sk than Aran Samus; and I wonder: are you Aran Samus or are you Dark Samus, and Aran Samus is your good doppelganger and perfect fakeclaim?

Please, let's make a weirdalexv wagon grow and at least get an answer to these points. Weirdalexv is in my opinion the likliest SK we have (I already mentioned him jumping in, rereading very quickly, posting a superficial catch up and casting an easy vote), and he also is on the sensor(?)'s list... should he flip town, which I consider highly unlikely, I will have a hard time believing that 3 players among thil, esurio, GW and DH are scum, so we will be able to critically address wagon analysis, with better odds of success than we have today.

This is my suggestion, and it also depends on the fact that I still have a townread of pinky (why the hell would he come out with this claim out of nowhere? He didn't have to, no one asked him...) and I still believe thil's claim. So I think my suggestion represents the best course right now. Discuss.

[Kdub]

lew, if you believe the scum+SK scenario, then doesn't one of thil/PatB have to be lying scum? Regardless of your read on alex or anybody else, it seems like a bad play to lynch outside of a 1v1 in the hopes that we happen to randomly hit the SK. Scum won't touch either of them at night, thil will claim to be roleblocked again, and we'll be left with the same scenario tomorrow.

I'm pretty knowledgeable when it comes to most Nintendo franchises, but Kirby is one that I am not so familiar with. Does "slashed to death" fit Kirby flavor-wise at all?

[GhostWriter]

http://kirby.wikia.com/wiki/List_of_copy_abilities

Look up sword.

Why would I fakeclaim town-Tracker as scum-Watcher over claiming town-Watcher?

Anyway, I'm getting really confused as to why people aren't getting that we must choose between Thil and PatB today. If we prove PatB correct, even through lynching him, we have a list to use for finding scum, as well as having one scum right there. If we prove him scum, then we get one scum. Claiming to not want to risk Thil, a claimed cop, is pointless. And anti-town as hell. Thil is claiming RB every day. Why are you so concerned with leaving him alive instead of finding scum out of the pair?

[lewarcher82]

unfortunately, kdub (and GW: PV-EDIT), if the sensor is telling the truth (for either possible reason), we have 3 scum left. And since I believe the mafia+sk scenario, I know that if we lynch a townie we will be 9 at twilight, sk kills scum kills and it makes 7 tomorrow, and unless crossfire, we will have 3 vs 3 vs 1, which means if sk can joint with scum we are screwed. This is the reason why I am insisting with looking for the sk today, and I posted the reasons why I think it is very likely CP/weirdalexv. At least let's insist on him answering my points.

[jmj3000]

DemonHybrid has requested replacement, searching now.

[Kdub]

Mod: If a player is killed at night by two different killing roles, would both kill flavors show up?

That should answer part of lew's first point (that scum and SK might have hit the same target).

Flavor-wise, there are plenty of Nintendo characters I could see being an SK. I don't think the speculation about Samus is very convincing.

SK and scum can almost never win jointly. Not sure why you are bringing that up.

In order for lynching someone other than PatB/thil to be correct, I think we need to be way more than 50% confident that someone is actually the SK. I don't feel that confident right now.

[wierdalexv]

Samus Aran as a fakeclaim for Dark Samus seems almost too blatantly obvious and that the SK would be given a better fakeclaim, although this is both WIFOM and outguessing the mod.

I agree with Kdub that it would make no sense to lynch out of the 1 vs. 1 unless we are pretty much certain.[/stream of consciousness]

[The Master Hand]

Did anyone even mention Dark Samus? Lol. Samus Aran works as a third party, but the point isn't about the claim. Lew thinks your play in the game is a the way a third party would play. Given that lewarcher has the award for "best serial killer," I think he has some authority in this matter. Not to mention the fact that if 3/5 people on the sensor are scum, then you are undoubtedly scum.
-Toast

[lewarcher82]

I stand by my reads, people. The Dark Samus stuff was just speculation. So, if you don't see the point, I will have to spell it out loud. If you check the flips, although some prs are minor charachters, every charachter who is the hero of a game is a PR.

Samus is the hero of a game.

Samus is a bounty killer.

Someone shot a scum member.

Still, Samus says: we have no vig.

Options:
Samus being VT: impossible.
Samus being protective role: then why did doc die?
Samus being an informative role: why not claim after 4 info-roles did?
Samus being a vig: BEEP: samus said there is none.

ergo: he is either sk or scum pr. His play looks lile a sk play to me.

(@kdub: joint win was an option is the last large themed game I played as a sk. Still, even if it is not, what are the odds of town winning with a 3vs3vs1 situation on lylo?)

[wierdalexv]

Do you want me to claim?

I'm not a VT.
I'm not a protective role.
I'm not an informative role.
I'm not a killing role.

My claim is pretty much guaranteed to get me lynched; Samus has a doppelganger who would Be an SK and I have a typical SK role and apparently my play looks like an SK. However, I'll claim if you want me to.

[Kdub]

I think I have an idea of what alex's role is based on that last post. Claim if you like, but I don't think it's going to change my opinion today (tomorrow might be another story). Can't speak for lew, but if you claim what I think you are going to claim, I doubt it will change his opinion either.

It's not lylo right now. I still think we settle the 1v1 then look at where we stand tomorrow. Honestly, I think lynching thil gives us a better than 50% chance of hitting scum (and a good chance of hitting the scum roleblocker at that). A 3:3:1 situation is pretty much the worst case scenario (we mislynch today and both kills are on town, but really, the SK should be aiming for scum tonight. 3:3:1 is an even worse spot for the SK to be in than it is for town.

[wierdalexv]

Huh, I was going to wait for some input Until I did the BWA, and then I realized Kdub already said that I should, so Lol. Will get started on that in a Little while, when I have Enough time. And, while I Think of it, That last Post softclaimed a lot harder than I Realized. Wow.

[wierdalexv]

EBWOP: STUPID GRAMMAR!!!!

'until' should read 'before', Ok?

[esuriospiritus]

That wasn't at all subtle, nor is it particularly convincing.

[wierdalexv]

What wasn't at all subtle, nor particularly convincing?

[lewarcher82]

the steganographic softclaim in #1616. Not subtle, not convincing, not confirmable and above all not necessary..

B

ecause

U

ltimately

L

imericks

L

ooking

S

ubtle

H

ave

I

mplicit

T

rouble.

If you are not the SK, who is it? Sk killing hohum may point to different leads. Hohum was fosing TMH and esurio. Do you think it is one of these two players?

@kdub: my problem remains. I think both thil and patb are town. I have no idea how a double block could occur, tho... I am trying to avoid a situation in which we lynch one of them today, he flips town cop/sensor, and tomorrow everyone will acritically jump on the other one, potentially losing the game.

as far as I see, we have 3 players who are convinced the 1 vs 1 is compelling: GW, bunny, kdub. Two players, I and TMH, are not. It is about time for the remaining players to take a clear position about this.

@thil: why arent you voting patb?
@patb: why arent you voting thil?
@kdub: why arent you voting at all?

[Pinky and the Brain]

Samus is the hero of a game.

Samus is a bounty killer.

Someone shot a scum member.

Still, Samus says: we have no vig

This line of logic is pointless unless we have a mass name-claim.

For all you know, other people might have name-claims even more suited to SKs.

as far as I see, we have 3 players who are convinced the 1 vs 1 is compelling: GW, bunny, kdub.

You're wrong about bunny there, and oddly enough, neither kdub nor GW are voting either myself or thil.

@patb: why arent you voting thil?

I stand by my statement that a SK lynch is much more preferable. Really, any player is more likely to be a SK than thil. I'm confident that a SK would not claim cop, paticularly in a Large. I would honestly put thil's chances of being SK at zero.

Assuming 2 scum 1 SK on the wagon, the other people on Tragedy's wagon have a 25% chance each of being a SK but 50% of being scum.

DH's slot is unlikely to be SK after replacing out despite massive lurking (as lurking would be beneficial for a SK - subsequently replacing out renders all his lurking moot).

GhostWriter I feel is also fairly unlikely SK following a PR claim (although not as unlikely as thil).

I'm doubtful esurio as a SK would have taken the risk of drawing attention D1 (with the whole out-of-thread investigation shenanigans).


That leaves wierd.

wierd's recent posts feel like he is really trying to squirm out of a lynch, paticularly:

I agree with Kdub that it would make no sense to lynch out of the 1 vs. 1 unless we are pretty much certain.[/stream of consciousness]

My claim is pretty much guaranteed to get me lynched; Samus has a doppelganger who would Be an SK and I have a typical SK role and apparently my play looks like an SK. However, I'll claim if you want me to.

And, while I Think of it, That last Post softclaimed a lot harder than I Realized. Wow.

I want a claim.

(I can't see the softclaim. I get 'HULLAETTPR' or something stupid like that.)

Spoiler: Vote Count

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

DemonHybrid

- 1 - Bunnylover - (L-5)

thil13

- 2 - esuriospiritus, weirdalexv - (L-4)

weirdalexv

- 2 - The Master Hand, lewarcher82 - (L-4)

Players not voting: DemonHybrid, GhostWriter, Kdub, Pinky and the Brain, thil13

Deadline is June 24th at 12:30 AM EDT.

(expired on 2011-06-24 00:30:00)

^ I think this is still correct.

VOTE: wierdalexv


I think the third scum on the wagon is GW.

I don't buy Dekes visiting nobody N3, and the breadcrumb is awful (and notably does not come until ISO #60).


I didn't include the quote before, so here it is:

Important:
I am responsible for no deaths N1. And no actions at all for that matter. I'm a JOAT, one of them was a mass block.

I pretty much wasted all of my actions

and the only informative thing is that PatB is a bit more likely town (which becomes a lot more likely looking at his recent play).

^ Here is Dekes implying he has used up all his actions by Day 4, but having No Action on N3 would give him only 2 Nights for his actions.

I suspect that scum have a tracker, and they tracked somebody else that night, but GW couldn't claim that because it would be obvious PR-hunting from scum, so he is claiming to have tracked somebody who is now dead and of course can't dispute the claim.

I believe Lew is the scum RB.

He believes this because he allegedly tracked Lew to thil, which would of course mean thil is town. However:

I think that the best course of action is to lynch Thil

[...]

Thil has the best chance of flipping scum

After forcing a lewarcher claim, GW is very quick to decide that thil is actually scum.

[wierdalexv]

Fullclaim:

I am Samus, 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie.

I admit that my breadcrumb sucked, it's the first time I've ever breadcrumbed.

Do you want me to claim?

I'm not a VT.
I'm not a protective role.
I'm not an informative role.
I'm not a killing role.

My claim is pretty much guaranteed to get me lynched; Samus has a doppelganger who would

B

e an SK and I have a typical SK role and apparently my play looks like an SK. However, I'll claim if you want me to.

Huh, I was going to wait for some input

U

ntil I did the BWA, and then I realized Kdub already said that I should, so

L

ol. Will get started on that in a

L

ittle while, when I have

E

nough time. And, while I

T

hink of it, That last

P

ost softclaimed a lot harder than I

R

ealized. Wow.

EBWOP: STUPID GRAMMAR!!!!

'until' should read 'before',

O

k?

^None of the bolded need to be capitalized, that was my [unfinished] breadcrumb. With the softclaim, Bulletproof is pretty much the only addition an SK ever gets, so it was pretty obvious.

I'm assuming you want flavor, so I'm going to paraphrase the best I can.

I have been an Independent Bounty Hunter ever since leaving the Galactic Federation. After my home planet, K-2L, was attacked by the Space Pirates and my parents were killed, Old Bird, one of the Chozo Elders and my friend during my childhood, infused me with Chozo DNA, giving me a Power Suit.

My only ability is my Power Suit - Due to my Power Suit, the first attempt to kill me will only destroy the Power Suit, and I will still be alive, but as Zero Suit Samus. The next shot will kill me.

I am Zero Suit, although I was not told what night I was attacked.
-------------------------
I am going to start working on the BWA right now, but it may take a while. Don't kill me until I finish this, I want to give my full reads from it before I die.

[Kdub]

@kdub: my problem remains. I think both thil and patb are town. I have no idea how a double block could occur, tho... I am trying to avoid a situation in which we lynch one of them today, he flips town cop/sensor, and tomorrow everyone will acritically jump on the other one, potentially losing the game.

Is your town read on both of them so strong that you would defend them even in spite of role information that seems highly unlikely (both claiming roleblocked)? For me, it really would take some sort of role-related info to believe that. No matter how confident I am in my reads, I know that I can easily be wrong about them. I'd never put my reads above contradicting claims.

@kdub: why arent you voting at all?

I had unvoted so we could discuss PatB/thil further. Since there doesn't seem to be any danger of a quicklynch, I'll put my vote back on.

VOTE: thil

Alex: can you ask the mod what night you lost your one-shot BP?

[wierdalexv]

OK, I'll do that right now.

[And I will admit that I haven't started on the BWA yet. I had to get off the computer for a while, and then my cousins came, so yeah....]