Into Africa - Over

[Snarky]

White knighting huh? Anyway I trust Seacore now. Did my reread and he's the only one who really defended ICE.

The claim fits too well because it has a different function for everything that happened in the game. There's the cop thing that would explain ice cop claim, the protection thing that would explain why he visited zelink, the 50% that would explain why zelink died. It just seems like he tried to explain everything in one claim, but at the end it just feels fake and overly complicated, like he just added different functions to his role to better fit in the game.

[elvis_knits]

vote populartajo

Good job, ckd. Prior to this I thought tajo was obvtown, so this is a HUGE catch.

I have to read the last few pages more carefully though because there is a ton of shit going down other than tajo.

[elvis_knits]

Other things that stuck out to me from the last pages:

Seacore - earning town cred.
---->responded to cirno's anti-town antics in a pro-town manner
---->suspected ckd's gambit was a gambit. tajo obv did not, he got caught. odds of seacore being scum buddy with tajo decrease, cause seacore would have warned tajo if they have a QT, which they probably do. Always the chance they don't have a QT or tajo posted without checking it. But still, odds of seacore being tajo's scum buddy decrease.

Vezok - even less likely scumbag
---->tajo has been trying to off him for a few days

Calcifer - looking scummier
---->post 1374 suggests we let ckd vig tajo instead of lynching him = more chance of scum getting another dead town today if we lynch somebody other than tajo
---->voting seacore at this point seems pretty wrong

lowell - needs to die
---->i can't tell if he's scum or so dumb that he is functional scum

[elvis_knits]

I am looking at the wagons and VC's. I have color-coded and drawn some conclusions and speculations. I don't feel that they are terribly definitive, but I have written down my thoughts just for the sake of discussing. Also, I think the VC's will be helpful to everyone regardless of my conclusions and speculations.

RED - confirmed scum

TEAL - Confirmed town

GREEN - MY obvtown, you can disregard if you disagree

snarky (4) -

Llamarble

, earworm,

Ellibereth, ZeL1nK

ZeL1nK

(4) - snarky,

HezLucky

,

silavor

, Amrun
Amrun (1) -

pappums rat/GI

jilynne1991

(1) - Cirno

Ellibereth (1) - jilynne1991

Flavour Analysis

(1) -

Fate

silavor

(1) -

Flavour Analysis

Not Voting (11) - Altilsian, vezokpiraka, inHimshallibe, populartajo, PeregrineV, elvis_knits, Seacore, Lowell, evilpacman18, curiouskarmadog, DietyKabuto

snarky wagon. earworm is the scum on it. Unless snarky is scum.

One of snarky/earworm is likely scum.

*note: snarky wagon revived early today. Might give more info.

Flavour Analysis

(6) - earworm,

vezokpiraka

,

HezLucky

,

elvis_knits

,

Fate

, Amrun
snarky (2) -

Llamarble

,

ZeL1nK

ZeL1nK

(2) - snarky,

silavor

Amrun (1) -

pappums rat/GI

Fate

(1) -

Flavour Analysis

Ellibereth (1) - jilynne1991

HezLucky

(1) -

Ellibereth

elvis_knits

(1) - Cirno
Lowell (1) -

PeregrineV

Not Voting (8) - Altilysian, populartajo, Seacore, Lowell, evilpacman18, DietyKabuto, inHimshallibe, curiouskarmadog

FA wagon. Hez was scum on it. Perhaps a buddy was on it. Earworm and amrun placed far enough away from hez that they're possibles, but I don't feel that there is anything definitive here. Could be more important when taken with other info.

silvaor

(12) -

ZeL1nK

, Seacore,

elvis_knits,

populartajo

, inHimshallibe, snarky, Lowell, Amrun,

vezokpiraka

, DietyKabuto,

Fate

,

evilpacman18

HezLucky

(2) - curiouskarmadog, Altilsian

evilpacman18

(2) -

silavor

, earworm
earworm (2) -

Flavour Analysis,

Ellibereth

Fate (1) - GreyICE

Ellibereth (1) - jilynne1991

elvis_knits

(1) - Cirno

Flavour Analysis

(1) -

HezLucky

Cirno (1) -

Llamarble

Silavor lynch. Tajo scum on it. Seacore looking more town to me lately. DK has been a tajo target, making him less likely scum, IMO. I think there is prob at least one more scum in that meaty middle area of: inhim/calcifer, snarky, lowell, amrun.

Scum off the wagon: I favor earworm, but not sure it's definitive. Altilysian has seemed like a gut town to me, but I am forced to question myself at this point. Cirno seems like a wildcard at this point; maybe scum, maybe not.

curiouskarmadog (4) -

GreyICE,

HezLucky

,

Fate

,

vezokpiraka

Llamarble (4) - elvis_knits

, Seacore, curiouskarmadog, Lowell

HezLucky

(2) -

Flavour Analysis

,

ZeL1nK

evilpacman18

(2) - Amrun, earworm

Fate

(1) - Cirno

elvis_knits

(1) - DietyKabuto

ZeL1nK

(1) - snarky

Not Voting (5) - evilpacman18, populartajo, inHimshallibe, jilynne1991, Llamarble

CKD vs. llamarble wagons

If there's scum on llamarble, I think it's Lowell.

*Sticks in my head that tajo kept saying llamarbe is town because he was the alternate wagon to hez. Tajo could have been saying this because you have ot say some logical/townish stuff as scum or else it becomes obvious you're scum. Tajo could also have been saying this because we actually had two scum wagons going at once (rare but possible).

---

THESE NEXT TWO VC's NEED TO BE LOOKED AT TOGETHER:

HezLucky

(6) -

Flavour Analysis

,

ZeL1nK,

populartajo

,

vezokpiraka,

GreyICE, Fate

Llamarble (4) - elvis_knits

, Seacore, curiouskarmadog, Lowell

Fate

(1) - Cirno
Lowell (1) - earworm
snarky (1) - Amrun
curiouskarmadog (1) -

HezLucky

ZeL1nK

(1) - snarky

Not Voting (6) - evilpacman18, inHimshallibe, jilynne1991, Llamarble, DietyKabuto, Altilysian

HezLucky

(7) -

Flavour Analysis

,

ZeL1nK

,

populartajo

,

vezokpiraka

,

GreyICE, Fate,

DietyKabuto

Llamarble (6) - elvis_knits,

Seacore, curiouskarmadog, Lowell, snarky, Cirno
snarky (2) - Amrun,

evilpacman18

Lowell (1) - earworm
curiouskarmadog (1) -

HezLucky

Not Voting (3) - Llamarble, inHimshallibe, Altilysan

Tajo busses Hez.

I imagine that scum took a scatter approach at this point. They don't all buss Hez because then Hez dies immediately and they hope that he can still get out of this shit by claiming cop etc. So it is VERY interesting who comes over to llamarble at this point: snarky and Cirno.

---

HezLucky

(11) -

Flavour Analysis

,

ZeL1nK

,

populartajo

,

vezokpiraka

,

GreyICE

, DietyKabuto, Altilysian, curiouskarmadog, Amrun,

Fate

, Calcifer
curiouskarmadog (4) -

HezLucky

, earworm, Seacore, Cirno

Llamarble (3) - elvis_knits,

Lowell, snarky
snarky (1) -

evilpacman18

Not Voting (1) - Llamarble

Hez lynch. We likely have another scum on the end of this lynch to buss for town cred. Alt, Amrun, or Calficer. I favor calcifer.

Seacore (6) -

Flavour Analysis

, DietyKabuto,

elvis_knit

s, Calcifer, Altilysian,

evilpacman18

GreyICE

(4) -

ZeL1nK

,

vezokpiraka

, curiouskarmadog, snarky
Cirno (2) -

GreyICE

,

Llamarble

vezokpiraka

(1) -

populartajo

evilpacman1

8 (1) - earworm
curiouskarmadog (1) - Cirno

Llamarble

(1) - Lowell

Not Voting (2) - Seacore, Amrun

Seacore wagon. Prob scum in calcifer or alt.

GreyICE

(8) -

ZeL1nK

,

vezokpiraka

, curiouskarmadog,

elvis_knits,

DietyKabuto,

Llamarble, Flavour Analysis

, snarky
DietyKabuto (4) -

populartajo,

Seacore, Cirno, Amrun
Seacore (2) - Calcifer,

evilpacman18

Amrun (1) - earworm
elvis_knits (1) -

GreyICE

Llamarble

(1) - Lowell

Not Voting (1) - Altilysian

GI lynch. If there's scum, I think it has to be snarky. However, judging from how tajo was like "I hate to say this guys but I think we need to start lynching the GI wagoners today" it's possible that GI was the rare completely town-fueled wagon.

[Llamarble]

Looks like Tajo appears to be okay with plan get-vigged, which is pro-town of him.
Anyway, EK what do you think of Amrun? She fits into a lot of your 'scum in this area' groups and is quite scummy on her own.
I think I mostly agree with you otherwise. Calcifer is pretty likely to be scum.
Assuming Tajo flips scum, I think the rest of them are in Amrun/Cirno/Earworm/Calcifer/Lowell.
There are likely a lot of scum in that group even if Tajo doesn't flip scum except that would clear Amrun.

[Snarky]

There is at least another scum on DK's wagon. Pretty sure tajo created it to drive some scum away from the mislynch. I'd say Cirno and amrum. But that means ICE wagon is not town-filled, the scums are just diluted in it.

[elvis_knits]

Well, I have had a gut town on Amrun and Alt most of the game, but I am being forced to question everything after seeing how miserable I have failed. I will have to take a closer look at both Amrun and Alt and question them more closely, but I am open looking at them. And I do agree that Amrun fits into a lot of my possible scum groupings.

Calcifer is pretty likely to be scum.
Assuming Tajo flips scum, I think the rest of them are in Amrun/Cirno/Earworm/Calcifer/Lowell.

^^ Very much agree.

Alt is possible too, though does not seem necessarily scummy to me. Snarky is also possible. However, I want to take another look at his early wagon this morning and see if that makes me think scum were starting a wagon on him. Snarky wagon: Amrun, seacore, calcifer. Hmmmm. Wagon is pretty scummy. Snarky is not on my immediate scum list.

[elvis_knits]

Oh fudge, EPM and CIrno were the last on the GI lynch, which I did not note above since I was being lazy and copying from the mod's posted VC's.

[Snarky]

Just the fact that you reconsider your position on Amrum removes you from my scumlist, elvis. Still, proove me that evilpacman is obvtown without talking about the "townslip" ( cause I really don't feel like it is a townslip, just a failed setup speculation that could also come from scum)

[elvis_knits]

Well, I'm really relying on the townslip. I will consider him too, if needed. TBH, I haven't looked at him too much other than that once I decided it was a townslip. I will say I didn't like his quickhammer. Also Cirno's quickhammer. WTF has been up with quickhammer everyday. It's making me paranoid that scum need to be hammerers to get their kill for the night or something uber-crazy like that.

[Snarky]

Oh shit that could really be it. It explains everything. yesyesyes. Maybe not the NK, but they would get a powerrole out of it.

[Llamarble]

Yeah that's an interesting insight.
Who hammered Hez?
Also my EPM townread is substantially weakened by his voting record.

[Llamarble]

Calcifer?
Yeah we may be getting someplace good here.

[elvis_knits]

Also, llamarble asked what an incompetent goon was, and I was wondering that too. I'm wondering if there's some lion flavor involved, where only some members can kill (since lions, the lionesses usually hunt, right?). And maybe there really is some bonus for the scum team if they hammer the lynches? I mean, remember calcifer hammered hez out of nowhere too. All three hammers we had were pretty fucked.

I have no idea, and it all seems kinda paranoid to me, but I'm just trying to make sense of the quickhammers and the incompetent goon/lioncub flavor. They might not be related. Just thinking out loud. It can't hurt to have somebody we think is town do the hammering.

[Calcifer]

Elvis, you think that vigging a confirmed scum and getting another free lynch is bad because it increases the chance of dead town...? What?

It makes infinitely more sense for ckd to big tajo and then we have another lynch afterwards. Confirmed scum lynches are useless as far as wagon analysis goes, since the only move that makes sense for either alignment. Vigging tajo means that we have one scum down, and a shot at another one. Why is suggesting that a scummy move...?

[elvis_knits]

I don't know, I just really want to lynch him and I think you're scum so I didn't like the suggestion coming from you. So how about we vig tajo and lynch you? If you like that plan better, I can agree.

[Amrun]

Other things that stuck out to me from the last pages:

Seacore - earning town cred.
---->responded to cirno's anti-town antics in a pro-town manner
---->

suspected ckd's gambit was a gambit. tajo obv did not, he got caught. odds of seacore being scum buddy with tajo decrease, cause seacore would have warned tajo if they have a QT, which they probably do. Always the chance they don't have a QT or tajo posted without checking it. But still, odds of seacore being tajo's scum buddy decrease.

Vezok - even less likely scumbag
---->tajo has been trying to off him for a few days

Calcifer - looking scummier
---->post 1374 suggests we let ckd vig tajo instead of lynching him = more chance of scum getting another dead town today if we lynch somebody other than tajo
---->voting seacore at this point seems pretty wrong

lowell - needs to die
---->i can't tell if he's scum or so dumb that he is functional scum

What the fuck? Scum have daytalk? Nice to know.

You were town to me before this, but I see no way that town could make this slip.

VOTE: elvis_knits

I totes think tajo is also scum. I need two votes.

[DeityKabuto]

Vote HezLucky

[Amrun]

Vote HezLucky

SOMEBODY MAKE IT FUCKING DIE

[Flavour Analysis]

Vote HezLucky

You mean vote Tajo.

[elvis_knits]

How is that a slip, amrun?

They probably do have a QT.

[Snarky]

Amrum...no. Try again. Maybe it ain't a true assumption, but it is not a slip, it's just null.

DK...no

[DeityKabuto]

Vote HezLucky

SOMEBODY MAKE IT FUCKING DIE

In elvis's ISO, it said Hez was scum.

[DeityKabuto]

Vote HezLucky

You mean vote Tajo.

Yea

Vote Tajo

[Calcifer]

Tajo getting vigged and me getting lynched is a better end result then tajo getting quicklynched.