Mini 1180: Game Over


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Post Post #1250 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 12:33 am

Post by wierdalexv »

jilynne1991 wrote:You guys...I am sooo sorry, but I really need to start cutting the crap out of my life, because I'm going to a math camp soon and then I'm trying to get into a boarding school, I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to leave mafiascum, sorry. :(
:(

Well, thanks for playing.

But crap, now we'll need two replacements.
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Post Post #1251 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:06 am

Post by DarthYoshi »

jilynne1991 wrote:You guys...I am sooo sorry, but I really need to start cutting the crap out of my life, because I'm going to a math camp soon and then I'm trying to get into a boarding school, I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to leave mafiascum, sorry. :(


Bolding this just to ensure our faithful (though weary-in-the-replacements-search) mod will see this.


Everyone, remember, deadline is in two days unless the mod tells us different. Still wanting an Ald lynch first, but a CC lynch would do as well, I suppose. I kinda understand the case on him, I just think the one on Ald is much stronger, especially in light of him chainsaw-defending WK on D1 by casting suspicion on, like, the entire WK wagon.

I also re-looked at the end-of-D1 votecount. Ald is really the only player on the WK wagon who I am convinced is scum (jily might be, I go back and forth on her; Mastin's stubbornness drives me nuts, but that particular endearing trait of his is towntell coming from him, so I'm back to thinking he is probably town). If he flips town, though, then I am reasonably confident that the scumteam is somewhere in CC/Alex/TWIE. I go back and forth on Elsa, and I think TS in brokenscrap's slot is probably town.
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Post Post #1252 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:07 am

Post by DarthYoshi »

Also, *if* there is a deadline extension, I return from my limited access tomorrow and should be able to go back to offering significantly more detail in my contributions to the game.
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Post Post #1253 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:10 am

Post by DarthYoshi »

BTW, CC went in a few days from saying he didn't see the case on Ald to putting Ald at L-1 and demanding a claim. If Ald flips scum, I smell a bus.
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Post Post #1254 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:09 am

Post by Soben »

DarthYoshi wrote:BTW, CC went in a few days from saying he didn't see the case on Ald to putting Ald at L-1 and demanding a claim. If Ald flips scum, I smell a bus.


Yes, I noticed this too. CC is scummy regardless of Aldusskel's alignment really. Notice how CC commented on lots of wagons yesterday but basically ignored WK almost completely! I much prefer a CC lynch over an Ald lynch.

@everyone, Reread CC's interaction with WK and tell me it doesn't make you go O.o He is clearly aware of the WK wagon but doesn't comment on WK's alingment or really try to scumhunt him at all. Proof that he is aware of the wagon is that he stated he wanted to vote WK for pressure, but never explains why, nor follows through on it.

Right now, my gut says Ald is going to flip town and that scum is CC + one of [TWIE, Elsa, jilynne]

Things that make me think Ald will flip town:
-CCs scummy support of it
-Ald still not claiming to try and get votes off him
-Ald's focus with all his posts on outing his reads more than being overly concerned with votes on him

Yes, I know its a bit of a change of stance to be strongly opposed to an Ald lynch, but that is what my gut is telling me and I always regret when I don't say what I'm thinking. I want to lynch CC. Iso CC guys. -___-

@CC, if I'm wrong, can you please explain your lack of commenting on WK d1? also why you support an Ald lynch?
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Post Post #1255 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:13 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

Soben wrote:
@everyone, Reread CC's interaction with WK and tell me it doesn't make you go O.o He is clearly aware of the WK wagon but doesn't comment on WK's alingment or really try to scumhunt him at all. Proof that he is aware of the wagon is that he stated he wanted to vote WK for pressure, but never explains why, nor follows through on it.

agreed

the CC iso makes him look a far more likely krew buddy in all honesty

VOTE: CC
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Post Post #1256 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:51 am

Post by DarthYoshi »

I took TS's and Soben's advice to ISO CC. I didn't get past posts 4 and 6 because I didn't really need to.

Post 4: Says top two suspects are WK and SP (the one-buddy-one-townie tell)

Post 6: All of the sudden reverses himself and says WK is definitely town, and casts suspicion on the wagon much in the same way Ald was doing earlier.

Yeah, I'll support a CC lynch.

Unvote. Vote: CaptainCorporal.
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Post Post #1257 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:04 am

Post by Elsa von Spielburg »

Huzzah! Considering he and I have been at each others throats the whole game, what else can be said?

Unvote;

Vote: CaptainCorporal
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Post Post #1258 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:12 am

Post by wierdalexv »

Holy crap, that was a fast change.

/ISOs

/Changes mind

DarthYoshi wrote:I took TS's and Soben's advice to ISO CC. I didn't get past posts 4 and 6 because I didn't really need to.

Post 4: Says top two suspects are WK and SP (the one-buddy-one-townie tell)

Post 6: All of the sudden reverses himself and says WK is definitely town, and casts suspicion on the wagon much in the same way Ald was doing earlier.

Yeah, I'll support a CC lynch.

Unvote. Vote: CaptainCorporal.
That's enough for me, but there's also some more:

ISO #7 - Adding this to the 'townie and a buddy' tell that is actually extremely useful despite how well it's known; votes the townie of the two suspects.
ISO #18 - I believe Soben brought this up already, but note the "L-1 vote for pressure" after saying he didn't get the WK case after saying WK was his top suspect.
ISO #22 - Again, this makes ISO #18[/ur] reek of weak bussing.
ISO #45 - Um...yeah. This is looking more and more like a bus.
And yeah. I see absolutely no interactions with WormyKrew, yet he thought about placing an L-1/Hammer respectively.

I am going to check how many votes that is, I don't want to accidentally hammer.
Done.
It's the fifth vote, and therefore
*L-1*

VOTE: Captain Corporal

DO NOT HAMMER YET.
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Post Post #1259 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:14 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

this wagon growth is unusual, but doesn't seem scum driven at all

CC should claim. Ald should pop in again to say hi or something
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Post Post #1260 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:15 am

Post by wierdalexv »

Twistedspoon wrote:this wagon growth is unusual, but doesn't seem scum driven at all

CC should claim. Ald should pop in again to say hi or something
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Post Post #1261 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:22 am

Post by mastin2 »

Not scumdriven at all.

NOT EFFING SCUMDRIVEN AT ALL DESPITE FORMING IN LESS THAN TWELVE HOURS.

RIGHT.
TOTALLY
NOT SCUMDRIVEN.

Ald wagon built slowly. And stubbornly. Throughout the day. And has fallen apart. MULTIPLE TIMES. LIKE IT DID
JUST NOW
.

Let me tell you something about the speed of a wagon. It's not a rock-solid rule, but it's a generally good rule-of-thumb:

THE HARDER IT IS TO GET A LYNCH WAGON ON SOMEONE,
THE MORE LIKELY THEY ARE SCUM
. (As in, a lynch wagon which has great support from the playerlist, has gotten close to getting through multiple times, and fails every single one of them.)

The inverse is also true.

THE FASTER A WAGON GOES THROUGH ON SOMEONE (barring investigation role results--and sometimes even then), THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO BE A MISLYNCH.

Seriously.

I.

CanNOT.

BELIEVE.

THIS.
IS.
HAPPENING.

You guys.

JUST LET ALD GET AWAY WITHOUT A SCRATCH. He's surviving, HE'S ESCAPED ATTENTION,
exactly
what I had warned you he would do.
The attention has been shifted from Ald (scum) onto Captain. (TOWN TOWN TOWN TOWN, OH SO VERY TOWN!)

And do you know who the primary driving force of this switch is?

Soben
.
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Post Post #1262 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:26 am

Post by mastin2 »

And here I thought that the person I most needed to Defend was TWIE, that Captain would be in the middle. (And obviously, Twisted would be at the bottom of the priority list--it's hard to explain why Twisted's town, but mostly everyone sees him as town, anyway. The other two...)

APPARENTLY NOT.
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Post Post #1263 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:37 am

Post by mastin2 »

Gerhard. Let's start with him.
He begins his game voting WormyKrew. As an RVS, but still. Does that look like a bus in the RVS to you?

Not to me.

He then immediately engages in legitimate scumhunting. He goes after Alex and locks onto Alex as scum immediately. This is not scum taking advantage of a weaker player. This is town, legitimately seeing something which looked scummy and pursuing it.

Gerhard also commits a town-tell, by voting Jily after her claim. He thought she was scum, and didn't notice her claim. It's a minor tell, which you'd think would be null, but scum tend to read the thread closer and would instantly have noticed the claim, compared to town, who frequently miss details like that. It's also something you can't fake that well.

Gerhard wrote:For my replacement's benefit, I believe that Iron Head is the most likely to be scum. His language is carefully tailored, which is fine. However, he is hiding behind it to avoid the arguments that he should be having. Secret pac man made a point that he was appealing to logic. Perhaps his wording was not strictly correct, however the context and meaning were plain. Ironhead refuses to give merit to anything that is not perfectly logically structured, which gives him a myriad of excuses to avoid nearly anything. It's like a corporation bogging you down in paper work so that a trial can't progress and you don't get your damages. Ironhead side tracked the argument so that he could yell at secret pac man for not having his Debate lingo spot on rather than actually have to answer to the presumed scum tell.
There's also this. He went after Ironhead, a wagon which was beginning to die (same as the Jily wagon), and thought the player was legitimately scummy, bringing up a lot of unique points which are obviously not faked.

There's also the fact that despite replacing out, he still put the work into the game and wanted to leave with the best he could give.

Additionally,
Secondly, I'm not crazy about Mastin, and my gut tells me he is scum.
I had defended Gerhard as town at the time, and he had a scumread on me. WHAT KIND OF SCUM CALLS THEIR DEFENDER SCUM? That's a signature (paranoid) town-move, extremely hard to fake.

It would involve language construction, his pattern of planning, and the way he outlines his suspects in advance, in case anyone wants to look into those things.
And he uses my own tells (Tone, Motive, a little bit of Interaction) against me. I realize this doesn't seem significant and it probably was not intentional--but the fact that he used those three tells, against me, means that he was really scumhunting. Since (quite frankly) I can't fake seeing those tells in another. That scumhunting method is completely honest, truthful, and unbiased. Scum can't fake it, scum have trouble using it effectively. It's a signature town move.


Additionally, let's review my tells in this short little while.
Motive--extremely town. Gerhard might not have been the best player, but he's definitely town-motivated in his posts.
Tone--one of the towniest tones I've ever seen, quite frankly.
Interactions--favorable for WormyKrew; that did not read as a bus.


AND THIS IS JUST FOR THE PREDECESSOR'S FIVE POSTS.

Captain gets a separate post in his defense.
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Post Post #1264 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:42 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

I'm buying TWIE town from you mastin. I like your counter-wagon argument.

mastin2 wrote:Not scumdriven at all.

NOT EFFING SCUMDRIVEN AT ALL DESPITE FORMING IN LESS THAN TWELVE HOURS.

I don't think it matters

It was fast purely because once you actually look at the CC Iso for his krew interactions he becomes real suspect. I had not discovered this before because I Iso'd krew for CC and not the other way around.

I'll look at them again though and see if I feel the same

CC interations with krew:

Captain Corporal wrote:
I would say WormyKrew and Secret Project are my top two scum, but agin, gut feelings, nothing to lynch on...

typical bussing. Saying Krew is scummy but not wanting his lynch. Albeit he says the same for SP and he isn't scum.....
Captain Corporal wrote:
I am getting town vibes from Krew, and I have absolutely no idea why this bandwagon has built. Can someone please re-state a case against him (or link a post)?

defending krew (I think CC is the only person I actually remember defending krew like this)

Captain Corporal wrote:If someone puts Krew at L-1 and Secret Project doesn't wait for a claim, I will be mad. Don't do it, SP.

sounds like blackmail. Or defending a partner (how could you have krew as a town read?)
Captain Corporal wrote:
FoS: Secret Project. Again. I don't like the way you've been forcing this Krew lynch, saying "Krew is scum" over and over. I also don't like the way you're pushing the day to end so quickly. We have time. The deadline was even extended. Why not use that time? >_> Also, the way you vig-vote-hopped onto Alex. With no explaination. You just leaped onto my scumlist again.

more krew defending
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Post Post #1265 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:43 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

NINJAS: UNVOTE:

VOTE: ald

if ald flips scum we'll look at soben tommorow, K? :]
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Post Post #1266 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:45 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

oh, and CC doesn't need to claim. The rest of his Iso does have some flakes of town nuggets, although they're had to find. It's like a refining process. Involves a lot of sifting.
Think of reading the CC ISo like fractional distillation. You start off with the crude, raw oil and then you can separate the parts to get the useful kerosene and such.
CC has sone town stuff, but they'd be a lot easier to see if he wasn't defending krew all the time >_>
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Post Post #1267 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:45 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

oh, and CC doesn't need to claim. The rest of his Iso does have some flakes of town nuggets, although they're had to find. It's like a refining process. Involves a lot of sifting.
Think of reading the CC ISo like fractional distillation. You start off with the crude, raw oil and then you can separate the parts to get the useful kerosene and such.
CC has some town stuff, but they'd be a lot easier to see if he wasn't defending krew all the time >_>
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Post Post #1268 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:46 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

need to thank Mastin there for setting me back on track :]
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Post Post #1269 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:47 am

Post by Soben »

Mastin, I would agree with you in saying the speed that a wagon gains ground is a good indicator of the allignment of the player being bandwagoned however it only works as an indicator when there's a reasonable amount of mafia remaining and given the fact that at maximum there's two their ability to generate and increase the speed of a bandwagon is minimal.

With that said if you continue to believe Ald is mafia then you're stating that there's only one mafia vote on the CC wagon, one vote alone doesn't change the speed of the wagon and if you believe we're mafia then you're stating that the speed of the wagon is scummy due to you believing the first vote on it is mafia which makes no logical sense.

I'm not comfortable with CC being at L-1 and am currently in the process of having a conversation with Scumhunter (It's a slow back and forth in our QT, he's at work) about his read on CC which I still don't see or understand at all. Furthermore CC's reactions don't make sense of being scum with Elsa, Jillyn and Ald leaving his only real potential partner being TWIE.

Unvote


Pedit: Wow was I cut, going to address the above posts now.
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Post Post #1270 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:52 am

Post by Soben »

mastin2 wrote:And here I thought that the person I most needed to Defend was TWIE, that Captain would be in the middle. (And obviously, Twisted would be at the bottom of the priority list--it's hard to explain why Twisted's town, but mostly everyone sees him as town, anyway. The other two...) APPARENTLY NOT.

I don't see anyone in particular stating they have suspicions of Twisted therefore spending time elaborating on your town-read on him this close to the deadline is a waste of time, I would much rather you spend that time attempting to explain your TWIE town read and Alduskkel scum read.

Twistedspoon wrote:I'm buying TWIE town from you mastin. I like your counter-wagon argument.

You'll need to explain this because it's been gone over multiple multiple times, the counter-wagon argument lies on the idea that mafia were pushing the alternate wagon and considering Iron, myself and a few others were the players taking part in the TWIE wagon and you maintain a strong town read on all of us I cannot see how the counter-wagon argument would buy you over.
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Post Post #1271 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:05 am

Post by mastin2 »

Enters with scumhunting, Jily as town.

He trusts in his predecessor's reads. This is a personal town-tell of mine. A signature scum move is to go completely against your (scummy) predecessor's views and take up an entirely new stance to (hopefully) become more favorable.

A TOWN signature is to trust entirely in your predecessor and acknowledge their wisdom. This is especially important if the predecessor was extremely scummy. By embracing the reads of the scummy player, the person is essentially saying, "my predecessor wasn't scummy by thinking this". In other words, they're not trying to get a Fresh Start which many towns freely give to replacements.

It's a subconscious thing. But I've personally done this. As town, I very frequently look at the reads of my predecessor, and value them. I look into them and see why they thought that. While I'll use my own judgement on them to determine if they're right or not, I put significant weight on them.

And as scum, I just carelessly toss them aside and go, "screw that, I'm working for myself", building a new image for me.

I've observed it in others as well. I see pro-town players frequently employ the logic of their predecessors, and sum players just ignore their predecessor and ask the town to do the same. It might not be something we actively decide to do, but it happens.

A lot. It's psychological. Not something you're aware of, but something which always happens whether you were thinking about it or not. And that's why it's nearly impossible to fake.


He also used gut. His inability to effectively explain it reads as genuine. Trust me, as someone who has explanation problems, I can tell very well from situations like that if they're faking being unable to effectively explain it, or if they legitimately can't give a good answer.

There's also favorable interactions with WormyKrew. And the fact that he was legitimately scumhunting on Secret. Look at Captain's early posts, and you'll realize he was pushing Secret as scum--something which could only have come from a pro-town player reading Secret as scum.

Captain shows paranoia, thinking about the night-kill, fearing he gave the scum too much information.

Scum don't do that. They don't show paranoia towards giving out town-reads, because they're scum. They don't gain anything by trying to hide town-reads. They lose nothing by posting them. Town (theoretically) does.

Additionally, there's the fact that if you look at Captain's reads, he had Secret as solidly scum.

WHY WOULD THE SCUM NK SOMEONE ONE OF THEIR MEMBERS HEAVILY WAS PUSHING AS SCUM?!??

("...More experienced players talked them out of it?"
Well, that's more evidence against
Ald,
Soben
, and maybe
Yoshi
as well, then. 'Cause guess what?
TWIE, Elsa, Jily, they're all inexperienced. And therefore could not be scum with Captain in this situation.)

This is an example of an assertive, "SCREW YOU" tone. There's Scum "SCREW YOU!" (Soben displays this to me), and there's town "SCEW YOU!". This is definitely the latter.

The fact that Captain was stubbornly refusing to vote was also town--he was thinking for himself, trying to figure out what to do, rather than (as scum would do) placing a vote blindly at request.

Do you think scum would so heavily use Chainsaw Defense, after pointing out a percieved Chainsaw?

Quick answer, No.
Captain also furthered his Secret suspicion, and was (in my opinion) legitimately convinced that WormyKrew was town, due to the interactions between the two Hydras.

Opinions like this, a stubborn scumread on Elsa which refused to die, makes Captain even more town.

There was no point in saying this as scum. Contrary to popular belief, scum do not say obvious stuff like that, anymore. This was a town-reaction. Followed up with a decent conclusion, and more legitimate scumhunting from Captain.


A tl;dr version?

Captain has consistently been tripping town-tells across the board, has been showing a consistent town Motivation in his posts, has been bleeding off a town Tone, and his interactions are overall fairly favorable.

HE IS NOT THE LYNCH TODAY.
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Post Post #1272 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:06 am

Post by Soben »

R, we need to talk in the QT. D:
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Post Post #1273 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:09 am

Post by Soben »

With 2 scum left, if CC is in fact scum, how much stock can we really take in how fast the wagon takes? That would mean there is just 1 scum in the other 10 of us or whatever. Bandwagon speed tells is overrated like all hell. Still i do want to hear from CC.
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Post Post #1274 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:11 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

and purely because Mastin posted that last line in all-caps you should obey :/

so it's back to "waiting for TWIE" Act II
1 Thessalonians 5:21: Test everything, but hold fast onto what is good

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