Mini 1180: Game Over

[wierdalexv]

Wow. I typed basically what DarthYoshi just said but never posted it. What the heck.

[wierdalexv]

Page turn >_>

Also, I think he didn't want to lie about being town, but didn't want to admit that we were right either.

[Soben]

That's L-1.

Deadline
Who of
{Elsa von Spielburg; Ironhead; Soben; Captain Corporal}
will be around to hammer then?

I will. I do not support the Ald lynch, but avoiding a no-lynch is always critical.

Attempt to gain town cred for when Ald flips town.

Now that mastin has wasted today with his terrible logic and worse listening skills, once Ald flips town can we reexamine people we should actually be looking into: namely Elsa and TWIE???

[Twistedspoon]

first opprotunity mastin, I'd like you to talk about Elsa. That'd make me happy

I'll probably vote her come tommorow

[Soben]

Oh just caught up reading.
Ald might be scum looooooooooooooooool.
That would be excellent for a couple reasons:
1) lynching scum = more likely to win
2) more importantly the amount Regfan will be trolled by mastin's fos on us in that scenario will make me lmfao.

This is a sincere offer to mafia and my word is my bond: If Ald flips scum and you night kill mastin, Regfan and I will actively avoid scumhunting for at least 2 day phases.

Equally Sincere "offer" to any "doctor" roles out there. If you protect mastin tonight and prevent him from being killed, we will troll not only this game, but every game you ever play on this site until we are IP banned.

^ If you think either of these are "jokes" or that I'm not 100% dead serious, you are bad at reading people.

[Twistedspoon]

you want mastin dead even if he's town?

[Substrike22]

The village sat at their sick version of a trial, two men both tied to two different nooses. Each juror stepping up and voting for the one they thought should die. Captain started laughing uncontrollably when Alduskkel was one vote away. "Haha. Hahahahah. Hahah. *hack, cough, hack*. I have a vote too, you know?"

Alduskkel was lynched Day 2. He was a

Mafia Roleblocker

.

Night will last until a replacement for Jily is found, but no shorter than 72 hours. I will send a mass prod out when D3 has begun, letting everyone know it has started.

If you have Night Actions, send them to me within 72 hours or they will not be counted. Thanks!

[Substrike22]

Jilynne1991 was found brutally murdered in her sleep, with every limb seemingly sawed off individually. Cause of death: blood loss. She was a

Town One-shot Vigilante

Day 3 has officially begun.

Deadline is August 8th at 10:15 am.[/b][/i]

Current Votecount: Post 1457
7/25/11 10:15 am PST
D 3.1

wierdalexv 0
Soben 0
Elsa von Spielburg 0
Captain Corporal 0
Xvart 0
DarthYoshi 0
Twistedspoon 0
Ironhead 0
Mastin2 0

V/LA's:

Not Voting: Mastin2, Twistedspoon, Wiredalexv, Darth Yoshi, Xvart, Soben, Captain Corporal, Elsa Von Spielburg, Ironhead, Alduskkel

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[mastin2]

...That was not the kill I was expecting.

First off, this is being typed under the assumption I live.

This is a large assumption, admittedly, and I gave myself only a 20% chance for survival--but I have to assume I will live, because if I assume I die and I end up living, I'm caught off-guard.

Second-off, this is also assuming Ironhead lives. That, itself, is an assumption, which I only gave around a 55% chance of happening.


Now that those are out of the way:

I'm going to be blunt--

Say what you will about my method. You might not agree with it, you might not fully understand it. But let me be quite frank.
I nailed WormyKrew and Ald as scum on day one.
On day two, I furthermore managed to correctly call Ald as a scum roleblocker.

I will not stand for your insults to me. I will not let you call my play stupid. My method might be different than what you are used to.

But it works.

And it works well.

Adapt to it.

Either I'm scum who double-bussed day one, am incredibly lucky with my suspicions, or--let's face it--I'm better than what you have been giving me credit for.


For instance, don't assume for so much as a MOMENT that I'm completely tunneling on my scum-reads. I strongly hinted at it Day Two, but I did not want to say it until Day Three. That I had a backup, secondary suspect in case my read on Soben was wrong.

That player is Twistedspoon, for the record, meaning that if Soben were to somehow flip town, I would have a backup plan in place, a backup suspicion to take the place of Soben.


That said, I'm also going to be clear, when I say this--I still think Soben is scum. Soben fits into the puzzle perfectly as scum, better than any other player. (Twisted only kinda fits.) I'm not going to start working on a case until after I've confirmed that I did in fact live through the night, but I can in the mean time explain to you the rest of my reads.


For starters--Jily's slot now IS confirmed town. *DELETED A LONG RANT ABOUT WHY JILY IS TOWN* (I can post it if you really want to see my reasons for calling her town, but, well, it's kinda pointless; I no longer have to convince anyone )

Now that we have that out of the way.
Presumably, day will be dawning with nine to ten players alive. My name among them.

So, that's one down, 7-8 left to go. (And since one name in there is scum, that's actually 6-7 left. With one of those names being Twisted--backup choice for scum--that's really only 5-6 left.)

And I'll be covering those in a second.

VOTE: Soben

I'm two-for-two so far. Let's go for all three!

[mastin2]

(Also, if it wasn't obvious, I predicted that the night-kill would be among {Mastin, Yoshi, Ironhead}. I concluded that if it wasn't me, that it'd be more likely to be Yoshi, because Soben has been blatantly buddying with Ironhead and Ironhead is both 1: the strongest advocate against me, and 2: the strongest advocate for Soben being town.)

[mastin2]

Basically:
TOWN: Yoshi
Ironhead
MISLYNCHES (also town):
Captain
xvart/TWIE
Alex
Elsa

BACKUP SCUM (most likely town, but is the most likely scum if Soben is town): Twisted.

SCUM:
Soben.

[Elsa von Spielburg]

Hah, I was not expecting that Alduskkel-flip OR that night kill. I'm doing awesome this game!

Mastin, what about alex? I did want him or jily to flip and now we have it. Gotta go back and reread alex's interaction with Alduskkel, but since Jily WAS a 1-shot vig, we have every reason to believe she did use it on alex and was blocked. I know people will cry WIFOM on this situation, but the simplest solution is just that: scum protecting themselves.

Also, also, is mass-claiming a bad idea yet? We are only down one PR right now. Thoughts?

[mastin2]

I'd only do a mass-claim if we have an investigative role that has actually useful information. (Meaning they'd claim first.) If nobody steps up, that means no investigative role has useful info, and therefore, a MC would be pointless.

Additionally, Alex isn't scum. Look at Ald's interactions with Alex.

[DarthYoshi]

Currently working on a VCA that I think should narrow down the potential pool of mislynches--its giving me lots of townreads. I'll have more in a bit.

[Elsa von Spielburg]

Yep, just did an ISO on Ald, and unless he and alex were the last two scum (we are assuming 3 total, rite?) bussing each other for a majority of the day, I doubt they were buddies.

[DarthYoshi]

Okay--the numbers of the VC's are in reference to the ISO # (of Substrike) in which the VC occurs. This VC is focused mostly on Ald and WK, and they yield some significant townreads. This is a bit of a wall, but hopefully an informative one.

#5: WK is voting Ironhead, Alduskkel is voting me. In both cases are scum voting players that everyone else should have on strong townreads by this point (in my case, I would cite Mastin's argument on his own behalf--unless you think I was executing a double-bus on D1, I'm town.)

#7: WK is voting Jily (this be about the time jily was screaming 'easy lynch,' and we now know she is who she said she was. (PS: Jily, welcome to my modding blacklist.) Ald isn't voting.

#9: Ald's vote goes back to me, WK's goes back to Ironhead. Since the two known scum have shown a reluctance to bus early, this should almost completely clear Ironhead as well as myself. Additionally, and this is important--Spitfarvle (who will be replaced by Soben) is the only vote listed on WK. Given that the other two scum aren't bussing, I have to think that Spit was town, unless he simply didn't get the no-bussing memo.

Mastin, this means that Soben is probtown. You should remove your vote.

#12: Ald's vote goes to CC--given what I note just above, this is actually a strong point in favor of CC being town, because Ald hadn't bussed yet, and it would make no sense for him to try to gin up a wagon on one scumbuddy in order to try to divert attention from the current wagon on the other buddy. CC is almost certainly town, Mastin was correct on that one.

#17: WK is at L-2, and Ald still hasn't bussed, which to me says his vote on WK was more a last resort, and in any case, the WK wagon at this point has two confirmed town (jily and SP) and three obvtown (me, Ironhead, Mastin). WK moves vote to SP, a player we now know is town, so bussing still isn't something scum seem willing to do for towncred.

#26: Brokenscraps (to become TS) hops on the WK wagon. This *could* be a bus if broken replaced in, saw a buddy in danger, and felt the need to reap immediate towncred. But I think TS's entry into the game is townish, so on balance, that slot is fairly nullish now.

#27: Here's why Broken's vote looks like a bus--he immediately jumps off to join the TWIE wagon--makes sense for a scum if they see a possibility for an alternate wagon. This hypothesis would mean Xvart in TWIE's spot is town, and TS is scum.

#29: At this point, Ald goes for the bus, and I do think he is the only scum on the final WK wagon. As for the TWIE wagon, it is worth noting that WK does not change his vote to the rival wagon in an effort of self-preservation, which is a scumpoint to Xvart. If the TWIE wagon is in fact scumdriven, it was probably by broken/TS or alex, but alex looks more town on D2 than he did on D1.

At the time of the final D1 VC, the possible scum candidates to me are (excluding Ald): Elsa, Broken, Alex, and Xvart. On to D2...

D2, #50: Ald waits for a long time to vote, but eventually decides on Alex. Given Ald's reluctance to bus on D1, this is a townpoint for Alex.

#55: Ald moves from Alex to CC--smacks of self-preservation, but as I noted earlier, CC is probtown now.

The D1 lynch wagon consisted of: Mastin2, jilynne1991, Alduskkel, Ironhead, Darth Yoshi, Secret Project, Soben. Two confirmed town and one confirmed scum. I believe the rest of the players on this wagon were town, and that the third scum was off the WK wagon.

The D2 lynch wagon consisted of: Mastin2, Twistedspoon, Wiredalexv, Darth Yoshi, Xvart, CC. No confirmed town or scum, BUT it gives us a player who was on neither lynching wagon: Elsa. Her scumminess is compounded by the reality that despite her back and forth with GK and Alex, neither Ald nor WK ever really suspected her. I'm pretty sure she's the final scum. Even if I'm wrong, I think the town has this in the bag and can find the final scum pretty easily through PoE because there are too many probtown players for the scum to handle with NKs.

tl;dr:

Strong townreads (aka I will fight tooth and nail against their lynch): Ironhead, Mastin, Soben, CC, Alex, and me (duh).
Null, maybe null-leaning-town: TS, Xvart
Scum: Elsa

Vote: Elsa.

[Elsa von Spielburg]

I'm in the real frustrating place of knowing perfectly well that I *should* be on the chopping block, based on not being part of either scum lynch, and thus knowing I could very well end up as the easy lynch today. I cannot really refute any of your points, since I was completely tunneled in on alex/CC on Day 1, and I DID think that Ald was town. I'm going to continue to play as honestly as I can and maybe be in on the final scum lynch, for once.

Now that I think about this, though, didn't we go through this with CC? He said thought WK was town and most people gave him a pass. Is this not the same situation? Also, are you one of those that does not believe that WK's vig-vote against me is worth anything?

[Captain Corporal]

Hey everyone
Didn't really expect that flip, good job, Mastin. I also didn't expect that NK. I though Soben or Mastin would've gone for sure.

I'm going to be away for the good part of today, but you can expect me to post at night.

[xvart]

#12: Ald's vote goes to CC--given what I note just above, this is actually a strong point in favor of CC being town, because Ald hadn't bussed yet, and it would make no sense for him to try to gin up a wagon on one scumbuddy in order to try to divert attention from the current wagon on the other buddy. CC is almost certainly town, Mastin was correct on that one.

In addition, seeing Ald's scum flip I seriously doubt that two scum would flagrantly say "WK is so town" about their buddy, which both Ald and CC did D1.

Also, also, is mass-claiming a bad idea yet? We are only down one PR right now. Thoughts?

Mass claiming is a terrible idea, unless a cop or tracker or watcher or something has definitive information that someone went to/visited one of the deaths or has a guilty. Mass claiming now just gives the scum a great idea of who to shoot tonight.

I need to finish typing up my notes from my catchup and then I'll post them with a vote.

[Ironhead]

/claim cop

Night 1 result: Soben is innocent
Night 2 result: Xvert is guilty

VOTE: XVERT

Assuming a three-scum set-up, this ought to end in a perfect town victory. Good game, town!

[Soben]

Mastin, what makes you a bad player is your inability to discuss things logically and actually hear others arguments out for what they are, instead you attempt to hone in on whatever your reads are attempting to grasp at whatever logic and illogical conclusions and actions you can to attempt to back it up while denying the fact that there's a severe amount of grasping for straws occuring. You get yourself into an attitude of your reads are god and right no matter what when they're not, you've read us wrong and continue to while reaching to attempt to back up your horrible read, furthermore you're attempting to lable players as "Confirmed town" wihtout even attempting to go into reasoning behind their read, examples would be on Elsa and TWIE (The reasoning on the CC town-read is actaully quite good and I agree with majority of it).

Well, I was cut and right about TWIE all along it seems.

Vote: Xvart

[Soben]

Well, I don't see it possible for there to be inclusion of more than three scum in a setup like this so that should in fact be game over when the votes are placed. For the most part this was an extremely enjoyable game and I would love to play with a lot of you again in the future.

Nicely done Ironhead.

[Soben]

Excuse the triple post but I can't help myself, Mastin now do you see how it's possible that both day one wagons can be on scum and therefore attempting to clear them saying that it's not the case is highly illogical.

[DarthYoshi]

I can't think of a single reason why Ironhead would fakeclaim in a situation like this as scum--he'd be lynched tomorrow if we strung up xvart and he flipped town. And Ironhead doesn't strike me the type to fakeclaim cop as a VT (right, Mastin? ).

Ergo,

Unvote. Vote Xvart. This is L-2.

However, if you are a cop, and Ironhead is lying for whatever reason, you should claim in your next post. I don't want to see Xvart hammered until everyone has had a chance to counterclaim Ironhead.

[DarthYoshi]

Actually, you know what, I realized I don't care that much if Xvart gets hammered first.

But if you are a cop, you should CC.