Zom Com Mafia - Mini 1225 (Abandoned)

[Sotty7]

Yes, this is exactly what is happening to me. Seeing no effort from anyone is really deflating. I'm currently trudging though some ISOs. I might be be better served by looking first at the claims, I think there were a few people who claimed in drips. We need to get that straightened out.

[Seraphim]

Vote: Captain Corporal

This is pretty much all I can come up with.

[Sotty7]

Tempting.

Did Ethos post in your QT last night Sera?

[SleepyKrew]

Lots of homework
Waiting on Spoon.

[Seraphim]

Nope.

[Captain Corporal]

I'm pretty much at a loss of what to do. I'm going to re-read some of what Starbuck said, I thought he was scum, but I can't remember why...

Anyone still suspecting me, give a damn good reason why. I revived Jak with my 1-shot, and he also aquired it. This was even proven earlier. As was my other ability, preserve. If I were scum, I simply would not give town a revive AND stop them from turning into bones. If you think WIFOM comes into play, it doesn't. Think about it.

[Sotty7]

Proven ability doesn't equal proven alignment.

[Captain Corporal]

Sotty, did you read anything I just posted?! How could I be scum when I revived another town member?

[Ethos]

Apologies for my absence, I've been avoiding this game out of pure lack of understanding of the roles and mechanics and considering this is pretty much an autowin position I'm not feeling compelled to try and wrap my head about it.

Also, yes I was neighbourized I believe, don't think I've posted in there yet though but i did ask Slaxx to.

And I'll fully claim in a minute.

[Ethos]

I'm Columbus [from Zombieland], One-Shot Night Undead-Killing Census Taker.

Active Abilities include; Zombie kill of the week (1) may kill any player, fails against humans.
Passive Abilities include; Check the back seat (D), Given a list of non-human players in the game.

I'll focus on this game a bit when I have time tomorrow, if there's anything you want me to read into in particular let me know.

[Sotty7]

Sotty, did you read anything I just posted?! How could I be scum when I revived another town member?

How can I be scum when I protected MoI?

[Sotty7]

All I'm saying CC, is that relying strictly on your claim to dismiss all suspicion against you is pretty poor and should never work. See mafia trackers, mafia doctors, mafia roleblockers etc...

[MagnaofIllusion]

All I'm saying CC, is that relying strictly on your claim to dismiss all suspicion against you is pretty poor and should never work. See mafia trackers, mafia doctors, mafia roleblockers etc...

I agree but let's look at his claimed abilities.

Outbreak - resurrects a Corpse and grants them a 1-shot use of the Outbreak ability.
Passive - knows when Outbreak is used
Embalm - prevent Corpse from becoming bones.

A resurrect that grants the player it is used on the ability again. And Jak confirmed it works in this manner. They both can't be lying. Jak is confirmed Town and CC used his ability to resurrect him immediately instead of trying to bring back Ace (who before his reveal there was some quetion in some players mind of his Mafia status).

Embalming Jak so he doesn't go bones is also pretty much proven by the results of Jak's second killing. If scum CC wanted to mess with us why didn't he secretly use the Embalm on Ace as opposed to Jak? He didn't claim that in his original claim IIRC. He could have just cruised by on Outbreak without revealing the second power or using it on a Town player.

I don't see CC's ability use as coming from Scum at this juncture.

[SleepyKrew]

VOTE: Seraphim
Opportunistic scum.
This is SKrew.

I have a posting restriction.
I love nature, I hope we can rebuild it once we kill the Zombiebers.

My only breadcrumb all game ^^

While I STILL wait on Spoon, I'm going to make a list of the conftowns...
Jak, CC, who else?

Also MoI, still waiting on what went horribly wrong when I puted.

[Sotty7]

This game is complicated.... But okay I can swallow that.

I would put Ethos on the confirmed list as well, what with the business surrounding Twisted's miller and de-millering.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, I’ve sat on my duff enough. Here’s my thoughts. I’m dividing the remaining playerlist into two categories – Confirmed (in my mind) and unconfirmed

Confirmed Players

–

Ethos

– I’ve already explained this but I’ll re-sumarize: IPie’s play Day 1 regarding Maru does indeed look like someone with inside information (his list), especially with his reaction to Twisted’s Miller claim. Day 2 his play surrounding Twisted’s de-millerization is something that confirms he has said ability (Check the Backseat) and that in my mind he approached it form a Town perspective. Plus Day 2 he came out firing at Bogre.

Sotty7

– Sotty’s claimed ability cements her in my mind as Town. The missing kill on the Day I suddenly became Zombified absolutely more or less confirms her power in my mind. Peregrine (who we know is Town) confirms I did become a Zombie immediately that Day.

Twisted

– The Miller claim and the fact that he was ‘deMiller-ized’ as a result of my slot’s recruit on him confirms him as Town to me. He couldn’t have been anything other than a Human or Vampire for my ability to work. Neither one would have shown up on Ethos’s list (unless he is again, some funky non-Twilight Vampire). My successful recuit (which is confirmed to others via multiple QT interactions) confirms this multiple times over.

CC

– I explained already why I can’t see his abilities (more or less Mod confirmed since Jak can’t be a lying partner covering for him).

Jak

and

Peregrine

are both confirmed Town if either returns to play.

This is the line. I will NOT support a lynch on any of the above players unless oddly somehow it gets to LYLO.

Next we have the two other resurrectors –

Chrono

– He is as close to being on the other side of the line as anyone. I think his ability doesn’t make too much sense as scum (I speeds up the process by which scum lynches are hidden from Town). His position as the alternate wagon to Ace at the end of Day 2 doesn’t make sense to me. I highly doubt that the move to lynch Chorono over Ace is scum trying to trade a weaker player / role to a stronger one given what we saw of Ace’s flip. The only thing holding me back is the fact that we have zero confirmation about the second part of his ability (bringing back Bones to full life).

Sleepy

– He pretty much POE of the three resurrectors for me. Also, he’s the last remaining player I don’t feel strongly about. His play has been pretty meh from a scum-hunting standpoint in memory. I'd really have to look back at his posts to get a better feel.

Seraphim

– And so we come to the last person. As I was drifting off to sleep late last night my mind was running over my thoughts and something came to me that I hadn’t considered before. Let’s examine this crucial bit of information from Seraphim’s claim that doesn’t match any other Vamp’ed player –

I have(had) two abilities.

Aside from the very odd claim in the first place (which I asked about when he made it) and his odd choices of targets N1 and N2 (IMO) he’s the only player to intimate that he lost any abilities to the Vamping. He does it early enough that he might not have know that wasn't the case with Vamping.

This troubled me enough to question my read. I’ve certainly had Sera sloted as Town most of the game. It stemmed from the way Ace pushed on him Day 2. Since I locked on Ace scum immediately (and he OMGUSed me like a champ) his previous actions I considered to be attacking Town. Ace's flip really solidified that for me.

So I went back. I read Day 2 in it’s entirety. I invite you to go do the same. Especially read Sera’s postings. He only really hops on board the Ace train late after Jak and CC both have been forced to claim. He at several key points tries to dissuade me from Ace (after Ace’s claim, after Chrono got run up asking me to wagon Peregrine instead). In hindsight it looks very possibly like a bus. He also really didn't push on any of the know scum (Ace or Bogre) but rather concentrated on pretty much everyone but (Jak, CC, IPie, FOS of Twisted).

The other thing that got my attention was the following from Day 1 –

I am the bussing king, bro. I hope you're taking notes.

That's just how good I am at it. I can even TELL you that I'm bussing and there's not a darn thing you can do about it.

This is the sort of cheeky WIFOM play I could see from scum of Sera’s experience. Plus a quick look at Maru’s wagon (which he was early on) did show that he did back off after Maru’s claim and took a small stab at exonerating him (IMO).

At this point PoE makes this a Seraphim or Sleepy vote day for me.

VOTE: Seraphim

--

Also MoI, still waiting on what went horribly wrong when I puted.

Well first off using the MoIputer method instead was the first mistake. The MoIputer method (which just looks at expected positions of scum on and off ending wagons) tends to be most effective midgame in Large games. Using it here might have been appropriate Day 3 but then we knew either Borgre / Sotty’s slot was scum with Ace.

MoIputer doesn’t work very effectively at finding the last remaining scum because it works of average expectations. Scum don’t always play each Day to expectations but overall unless they are specifically voting to defeat it (which is not scum’s first priority, although good scum tend to be mindful of it) they are going to end up with a higher profile than Town.

I think probably more traditional vote count analysis (looking at the day 2 wagons, how they formed, and when people move where) would have been more useful.

Mechanically you need to do a MoIputer output as follows –

1. Estimate number of scum alive at end of each Day you are analysing (in this case, it was easy – end of Day 1 we know it was 4, Day 2 we know 3, etc). Calculate the estimated percentage of scum (estimate scum over total alive). This yields a percentage.

2. Apply this percentage to the number of votes on the lynching wagon. For example if the expected percentage is 35% and 10 are on the wagon you expect 3.5 scum there. Round to whole numbers as necessary based on your personal judgement.

3. Subtract any known scum on the wagon from the expected number unflipped. Divide this result by the number of unflipped / non-confirmed players. This gives you the factor for that wagon.

4. Do this for both lynching wagon at end of Day and everyone off the wagon at end of Day.

5. Lather rinse repeat for each Day. Then sum up the factors for each player. Players in the highest range are more likely to be scum.

6. Use this pool to look at play and relational tells to figure out who you think is the best scum candidate.

Where you went wrong was

1. Only analysing the lynching wagons and not also those off the wagon.
2. Using 1 scum remaining in your calculations when Day 1 there were 4 and Day 2 there were 3. This threw your results off significantly.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So here's what I suggest happen .... feel free to tell me to take a long walk off a short pier if you aren't Seraphim

1. We lynch Seraphim.
2. Sleepy has already claimed a Twilight resurrect on Peregrine. If it doesn't happen Ethos shoots him overnight as he is a Vampire and the Non-human kill should affect him.
3. Chrono flips Seraphim overnight.

If Seraphim isn't the last scum not sure who is. Hell, once Sera and Sleepy (my other strong PoE candidate) are dead I will not fight my own lynch at all since that means that I've got some unknown error in my Clearing assumptions and I am probably never going to be able to find it.

[Seraphim]

Good point about CC.

Unvote

MoI: I didn't lose abilities from my vamping. I said "had" because I GAINED abilities from my vamping(the ability to vamp, always appear human, and all that jazz) but before the vamping, I possessed two NORMAL abilities that came with my role. If that makes sense.

My night choices don't make sense because I wanted to use abilities, like a vig shot, but in all honesty, but my abilities are NOT useful until late in the game when players are dead. I'm supposed to be able to revive dead players and I really can't even do that. So, my actions don't make sense because my role doesn't make sense. I wanted to revive confirmed flipped scum without votes(not a problem) while using my ability like a vig shot. This isn't difficult to understand.

MoI, your play in this game is the only thing stopping me from voting you so far. You pushed for Ace really hard straight from the beginning when you replaced in and Cojin's play really doesn't look that scum.

But let's not forget who pointed out what ace's role meant for our mysterious voteless player; that he was scum, right from the get-go, based on how the game was balanced and our 9:4 setup. I think my play speaks for itself; I have pushed hard for EVERY scum lynch we've had so far. If we're going to play the "who is confirmed and who is not" game

I think that MoI is scum but I do think his play confirmed him a little more than, say, SleepyKrew.

Vote: SleepyKrew

I don't have too many qualms getting lynched given how weak scum seems to be but I know that I'm town, so I will fight for lynching for someone who might be scum from my PoV.

[Seraphim]

I need to clarify something with the mod, I may have a better plan that ends up with a better net result.

[MagnaofIllusion]

But let's not forget who pointed out what ace's role meant for our mysterious voteless player; that he was scum, right from the get-go, based on how the game was balanced and our 9:4 setup. I think my play speaks for itself; I have pushed hard for EVERY scum lynch we've had so far. If we're going to play the "who is confirmed and who is not" game

I just wanted to address this.

1. You didn't "push hard" for Ace. I can pull your Day 2 postings regarding him if you'd like. I bascially had to drag you kicking and screaming to his lynch. The only scum you pushed 'hard' for is Maru and even then you did a little song and dance around his claim.
2. I'll go pull your quotes arguing with me about what Ace's claim didn't absolutely mean he was scum from after his claim if you'd like but saying "Hey, I clearly was first to point out this fact" isn't very convincing.

I understand it is frustrating being picked off by PoE. Fact remains that unless you think Sotty and I are scum together (which, natch, we can't be) the odds that I am scum is pretty minimal (since Sotty claimed to have protected me, no kill happened Day 3 at lynch, and Peregrine confirmed that I was a Zombie starting at the outset of N3). It's probably the reason why you aren't bothering to push the MoI is scum angle.

[Seraphim]

MoI: How do you account for there being two neighborizors in the game? That's the only thing making you not completely obvious town in my mind.

I have an idea concerning my role. I might actually get to use it for something but I need to check with the mod first.

If everyone else is confirmed besides us three, I can get us all dead by the next night phase.

[Seraphim]

I could also kill myself theoretically.

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 5-1

Seraphim (1)

- MagnaofIllusion

SleepyKrew (1)

- Seraphim

Not Voting (6)

- Twistedspoon, Chronopie, Ethos, SleepyKrew, Starbuck, Captain Corporal

With eight votes in play, five votes are required to lynch.

Deadline hits in (expired on 2011-10-21 00:19:38).

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI: How do you account for there being two neighborizors in the game? That's the only thing making you not completely obvious town in my mind.

How do we account for theorectically three Town resurrectors?

This is basically playing "Outguess the Mod". How do you account for the complete lack of information roles (excepting Ethos which basically means 75% of the scum are Godfathers if I am right about Twisted being Town)? We could play this game all day. Nikanor set-ups are known for being Mod Meta proof. Hell, if I remember correctly Reboot Mafia had there different kinds of Neighbors - Town / Town at game start, a Scum who could Neighborize a specific Town player, and a Scum Neighborizor / Enabler. I could be wrong on that .. it has been awhile.

But since you are going to make we work I'll go compile a case sometime soon.

[SleepyKrew]

I'm going to do some rereading later today, but a bit to say before that.

Seraphim,
You have never stated suspicion of me all game. None. I've been a solid townread all along. Where the FUCK did the vote for me come from?
Plus let's not forget that I was on all the scumlynches, and a driving force on Maru.
I absolutely love your little MoIfence.
"MoI is scum but I like his play so he's more confirmed than Sleepy." This. Makes. No. Sense.
Prepare.