Open 387: Jungle Republic (Day 6 - ends in a Town Victory)

[Slandaar]

does not seem possible

[vijay2vasandani]

To the people still arguing about why we should save Slandaar if he is the Seer needs to read this post of mine. Thanks.

I agree with Chrimi on this.

In the event that Slandaar is actually the Seer (which is like 25% likely imo):
Not lynching him gives us a 5/11 chance to hit scum. While that is looking good, the only issue with that is we don't get any extra info if Slandaar is killed (not too bad), or if Slandaar isn't killed we get introduced to WIFOMcity. Sure we get one result from Slandaar that is confirmed with our lynch of him but chances are we'd get "no werewolf" (9/11). Thus the benefit is minute.

If we do lynch him, we learn from the NK at the very least, don't have to deal with WIFOM. At worst we will have lost two townies.

However I believe that was more likely to be a werewolf fakeclaim by Slandaar(75% likely from my POV). The benefits to lynching him are obvious, while not lynching introduces all the WIFOM mentioned before.

Also I would like to add that kondi is probably Slandaar's buddy. So if you're the Seer (ie Slandaar is fakeclaiming), kondi is a good target imo.

Om still reads like flail-hard town. I'm null on almost everybody else atm, will reread and make notes. If I missed any questions directed at me, sorry. Please ask them again preferably in 12 or so hours because I'm going to be travelling for a while.

[Slandaar]

If I was a wolf why would I bother pushing the game forward so much?

Doesnt make a lot of sense does it.

[vijay2vasandani]

Totally, except as town you're more likely to go "ah fuck it" from what I remember in Rolling in the Deep. And also, that's just WIFOM you've chucked full on my face.

[Slandaar]

what? that day 1 was like 100 pages long and I had 300 odd posts

Vijay is scum

[Slandaar]

yeah vijay trying to push a fake meta argument looks really bad on him

He is scum guaranteed.

He using meta should know I like moving my vote around. Therefore why is he voting me? exactly hes scum.

[kondi2424]

I... actually can't find a flaw in vijay's plan. I was hoping that we could block the Werewolves' kill by keeping Slandaar alive if he's the real Seer, but the Werewolves killing is actually

good

for us and gives us information. Does that make sense?

I'll hammer tonight after I lay down my notes.

[drmyshotgun]

So we're bringing numbers into play huh? MoneyScum theory anyone? Not that I dislike it.

[Fat_Tony]

The following shall be a VERY stream-of-consciousness summary of my readthrough - writing it as I go along. I'll highlight any questions I have in bold and green.

21 - Definitely can see Kondi's point in 23 re: Xfactorwolf. Need to keep an eye on that.
31 - Not keen on Slandaar trying to forcibly end RQS. Can't see an argument for it being antitown, and Slandaar sure as hell doesn't present one besides "filling the thread with junk". Can't say I agree, some of the questions certainly seem to have given interesting results. Defiitely can't see RQS being any worse than RVS.
36 - Go on then, explain why? Weird why Kondi didn't do that.
45 - I don't agree on vijay getting "major scumpoints" for answering from mafia only perspective. Common to call mafia scum. But answering only from wolfside like X? Vijay null, X wolf at this point.
52 - I like this train of thought. Kondiwolf would make sense.
67 - Love this.
71 - Whut? Surely if asher is fixated on mafia kill restriction it has to be a mafiaread? Logic fail.
93 thru 98 - I think Kondi is winning that argument. I still have null-to-scum reads on both Slandaar and Kondi. If both are scummy, they are on different teams, this is too vehement for bussing.
134 and 136 - Jesus, Kass. "I want x lynched, but I'm not going to justify this with a case, why don't you do that for me".
143 - I am losing my scumread on Kondi because of the same post mentioned in this one. I don't see it as WIFOM scum. Maybe that's just me.
148 - "I townread Slandaar. Vote: Slandaar" - I think I missed something here. What?!
151 - Ok... I don't see voting based on good/bad play as being particularly protown. Current reads: Xwolf, Kassscum, mild Chrimiscum read.
157 - I hate FOSing. It gives such a scummy impression, casting suspicions but not actually backing up with votes. Then again, is it that much different to listing reads? I think if you're using both, then yes it is, especially if you are bolding it to draw attention. And the "smaller" the FoS is claimed to be, the scummier it feels to be attaching such importance to it using bold text. I like Thomithscum right now.
159 - that being said, this is a very valid point.
167 - OMGUS.
178 - LBJ is playing like an asshole at this point.
198 - OmNom reads list. I disagree with a lot of it. Never a good sign.
209 - OK, maybe I shouldn't read too much into this, but BagSquad seemed to vanish as soon as Slandaar started voting him.
Page 9 - This page is chock full of weird useless horseshit.
239 - You ain't kidding, Kondi. I played in a game like this before. I was VT, lived to the end, Mafia won flawlessly, and it was because of moron townplay. Kass, even if he's town, is really doing town no favours right now. Wolves have no reason to kill useless town, and useless town is useless. If I was in the game at this point, I'd have voted Kass.
244 - FML. Slandaar is making a good point, although it's about meta which is just crapola. Kass is playing antitown even if he is town. I am actually getting ANGRY reading the thread. For the record, I think Om and Slandaar are both town-to-null right now.
252 is a good point by dr.
End of Page 11 - Reading this shit is giving me a headache. I've a good mind to knock all your collective heads together.
298 is really faulty logic. If you're relying so heavily on meta and STILL not actually backing it up with evidence, you win 1 scumread from me. I still really think Slandaar is town. I hate when I disagree with everyone, it gets me deaded and then town lose.
304 - WHAT IS THIS I DON'T EVEN
306 - Yay, finally someone says something good that makes sense. I like Thomithscum even more, and it puts a different light on the Slandar vs Om shitflinging that's been going on for maybe 125 posts? Perhaps I have been unfair on Om, too fair on Slandaar. We'll see. Also, where the fucknuts is Xfactor? Did I miss him being replaced? *checks* Nope, that happens later. Xwolf makes sense.
308 - Thomith basically says - "let's lynch one of these two, who cares if its a mislynch?" If Thomith isn't scum I'm astonished.
312 - This. Good work, Om.
314 - Opposite of this. Vijay scum would work.
319 - This.
325 reads like PO'd scum to me.
343 oh hi Kass, you're still here? But only when someone attacks you? You're so scummy I can't stand it.
344 and 345 give me cause for concern regarding my Thomithscum read, but since I also like vijayscum a little bit... hmm
347 - totally agree with Slandaar, we seem to be reading the game the same way here.
359 - I don't necessarily agree on Chrimi, townread on him for now.
363 - WOW this post is important because Chrimi goes on to either totally miss Slandaar's point or try to misrep in 374, and ESPECIALLY 378 and 379, even after Slandaar responds in detail in 376. Massive red flashing warning light above Chrimi.
380 - Brother, I hear that.
388 - this is a good case on asher. Hard to believe this is the same slot X had.
390 - Oh won't you just die Kass? You're contributing nothing, you're rushing a lynch, just climb up on the gallows yourself, there's a good chap.
391 - DO NOT LIKE THIS.

-Interlude- I'm sticking my neck out here, there is almost zero chance Slandaar is wolf. I could see mafia, I could see town, but not wolf. X-turned-Elmo I feel is wolf, Kass I really believe is wolf, asher is probably mafia, so is Thomith, and if I had to put a third it's between Chrimi and Slandaar. I've obviously been wrong on this before, though. Mafia could do with townpoints from early bussing as they are effectively just a survivor faction, and wolf needs to get rid of mafia as well as town to win, so someone reading scummy like Slandaar has a tendency to do is a perfect target. From a town perspective, we really need to focus on finding wolves first, as they are the ones that can actually kill us. I want Kass deader than a big dead dead thing that's dead.

early 400s - I'm nearly convinced that Om is town. He's 13, it's perfectly plausinble he'd react this way to mad pressure from Thomith. Admittedly the fact that Thomith is a big scumread for me helps him in that regard though.

414 - I wish you hadn't claimed, Slandaar. We had a 1/12 chance of our first serious wagon hitting the only town PR, and we magically manage it? This makes you look scummy. The claim was unprompted and just not good for town. I hate D1 claims, a mislynch is no worse than a NK of a PR, which you effectively solidify if your claim is true. Oh God, this is so bad.

Shit, Slandaar, you broke everything with this claim. I don't think anything good has come of it.

444 - Thomith is Slandaar's homeboy.
465 - that's only as true as your claim.
471 - don't like this. Asher and V2V tickle my scumdar. Chrimi is backing the wrong horses to my mind.
487 - Sounds like wolf talk. In terms of good lynching: wolf > mafia > town > unclaimed seer. No idea where claimed seer lies on there though. Everything about this slot feels wolfy.
532 - EW EW THOMITH IS SCUM
534 - DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE OH GOD JUST DIE.
539 - I just vomited over my keyboard. That's how bad this post is. Seriously, how did the wagon end up on Slandaar instead of Lurky McShitposts over here? I am really sad at this game.
553 - Don't like this post. No chance Kass gets NKd either. Why would they NK the least helpful player, even if they were town?
573 - Really? I get LBJ's slot? Weak.
575 - Sorry to hear about the death in the family.
584 - Clarity, that's what. Do you really think wolfteam will kill him overnight? Only chance that happens is if they think he really will investigate the right person overnight, and pull a confirmable wolf result. if he survives to D2, there's all sorts of WIFOM flying around and we have to use up another lynch on confirming his being a seer. The claim was so bad, and only really benefits scum.

Well, I would really like to see Kass lynched. I really would. But that's not going to happen. Om will hammer in 2 days, Kondi will hammer tonight, and I'm sorely tempted to hammer now. As much as I'll hate killing the Seer, if that's what he is, Slandaar should probably die. There was never going to be a counterclaim on D1 because that would be so awful it's not funny. Town should never claim unless there is a waiting hammer, and even then, claiming D1 is probably -EV in any case unless there is a Doctor in the format.

If I can't have my Kass lynch, I'm... well, not happy as such, because this D1 has been dreadful for town, but satisfied to see Slandaar hang. It'll give us something good to work from on D2 whether he flips seer or some form of scum. I don't mind waiting for Kondi to hammer, or hammering myself. In fact, fuck it, I'll bite the bullet.

VOTE: Slandaar

See you D2, guys.

[Om of the Nom]

Well....that works, I guess.

I like the post except for the hammer (I feel it was a little too early).

[Fat_Tony]

Kondi was going to do the same later, allegedly, you were going to in two days... there was no way town were going to realign in such a way as to save Slandaar from hanging, and in the meantime, all we could do was give mafia more stuff to work with overnight. Anything we were going to say today will be just as relevant at the start of D2, only we will also have a NK to work from. I didn't see any reason to delay, although apologies if I trod on anyone's toes in doing this so quickly.

[Slandaar]

Town

Dr/Chrimi/Vijay scum

Probably Kass too

[Fat_Tony]

Slandaar, seer or VT? If you're VT, you're a douchebag for claiming, you put us in an impossible position by claiming unprompted.

[Slandaar]

Fat Tony maybe also 'see you day 2' before flip seems like wolftalk

[Om of the Nom]

I understand why you did it, I just get kinda paranoid about early-ish hammers because I come from a place with 72 hour days with hammers normally within 30 minutes from deadline.

[Om of the Nom]

*Watch as I click post 4 times before it finally posts :P*

[Fat_Tony]

Fair enough Om. Slandaar, how so? I get a bah post if i die, right?

[kondi2424]

What the fuck? You couldn't wait until tonight for me to give my notes?

[Om of the Nom]

Give your notes tomorrow. Or give them now if you've finished.

[Fat_Tony]

For the record, I would really have preferred it if Slandaar had not died today, he was active (if a bit flaily) and had he not made the Worst Claim Ever (TM) then maybe he'd have lived. Allowing him to live overnight just muddies everything up tomorrow and we can't afford to get bogged down in ridiculous WIFOM all day in D2. You had to die, even though it should have been Kass the whole time.

Pre-edit: What would your notes have done if you were going to hammer straight afterwards anyway? You would have given wolves more info to work with. Save them for tomorrow, they'll still be valid.

[Fat_Tony]

I... actually can't find a flaw in vijay's plan. I was hoping that we could block the Werewolves' kill by keeping Slandaar alive if he's the real Seer, but the Werewolves killing is actually

good

for us and gives us information. Does that make sense?

I'll hammer tonight after I lay down my notes.

Giving your notes today is

bad

for town as it gives

wolves

information. Do you see?

[Fat_Tony]

EBWOP: I meant to write "bad for town if you're going to just hammer anyway as..."

[Slandaar]

Dont lynch kass tomorrow

Lynch dr/chrimi/vijay

Kass is being called town by dr/chrimi which is actually ridiculous thereby making them scum defending a weak player (buddying) or they are just buddies. But dont lynch the buddy lynch the buddier.

[Fat_Tony]

^ fair point. Kass is still awful though.

[Slandaar]

Also as im town

These 3;

Om/Chrimi/Vijay are scum or cant meta

Vijay is scum, Chrimi very very likely scum, I think Om is bad town who doesnt understand meta he posts and responds too fast to questioning to be scum I think.