Open 392 - Friends & Enemies & Enemies -Corporate Espionage

[drmyshotgun]

Oh Psyche. He's cool.

[Psyche]

If you say so.

13 pages of seet analysis fodder. I hope I'm up to the job...

[Dazzy]

Welcome to the game Psyche, thanks for helping us out.

[BBmolla]

Psyche whose your Mafia partner whose been doing the killing while DK was afk

[Psyche]

Psyche whose your Mafia partner whose been doing the killing while DK was afk

Ohai, you. I hope you aren't asking that question seriously given that I'm not scum.

[Psyche]

Woah. 2 v 2 v 1.


If we lynch a werewolf, that means we lose.
If we lynch a goon, we have 2 v 1 v 1 and only a double NK against scum will save us.

This simply sucks.

[Psyche]

Oh, this is easy. Me an BB are town. So the scum are

-Trevor
-havingfitz
-Whiskers
-drmyshotgun

And...It seems I counted badly. Wonderful. 3 v 2 v 1.

We lynch wolf, it's 2 v 2 by tomorrow and we lose.
We lynch goon, and it's 3 v 1 v 1, and proceeds to either a win or a 2 v 1 LYLO.

With Molla confirmed, it's now just a matter of finding the last town and then the scum with connections. Great.

[Psyche]

(Or 1 v 1 v 1, a draw(?))

[BBmolla]

You're confirmed not Werewolf btw.

Two kills were made, and if DK could not have made a kill while site flaking.

[drmyshotgun]

Psyche's posts smell of fake emotion caring for Town.

[Psyche]

lolk.

Ok guys, I've cracked the case.

Trevor is the werewolf.
Shotgun and Whiskers are the goons.
Fitz is town.

I've put a lot of work into this and will be so proud if it turns out right. But I think the evidence very, very clearly supports this conclusion. I don't even care if we ultimately win or not. But whatever. Next post is where I organize my notes into a tripartite case.

You guys have me lined up to lynch for the sake of probability, but I personally don't think this is necessary. But I'll produce my case and then leave you to decide how much confidence to put into it. Okay?

[Psyche]

It's clear by the NK patterns that 

Shotgun seems too proactive a player to be alive now and not scum. He would be left alive by his opposing faction...if he's completely off-track on who he thinks that faction is. Moreover, his scumhunting's been vacuous. Nevermind. He didn't take the proactive role I thought he would (Whiskers did). 
—74 makes me wonder if he's buds with Trevor. His 154 makes me doubt that.
His 129 sucks and is an obvious mislynch push. Whiskers' approval of it is disconcerting. His 149 is the lazy way of thinking. 179, too. 
His 230 is too cooperative. He lines up too many lynches.


Trevor's early D1 play seems disingenuous. 54 is bettter. 68, bad. 109 is bad. Ignore's Whisker's case -> Kcdaspot bud?
His 156 works as confirmation. He blatantly identifies both raspberry and kcdaspot as trolls while simultaneously reading this in diametrically opposing ways (troll kcdas is town, troll rasp is scum). 
His 275 is crazily weak.

Chrimi's 73 is why she got NKed. 

Whiskers's 82 makes me want to think "Too townie." She "picks at trivial things", she says. Definitely NOT aligned with Kcdaspot. 193 seems out of character. A maneuver to justify hammering. Her 205 reads as scum covering bases. 

Fitz 176 and prior are all dirt.

Kcdaspot's 186 looks like distancing from Trevor. Or baiting a future connection? I doubt it. 256 is more distancing. Or more baiting. His 186 connection tell was obviously planned.

It makes sense with the NKs to suppose that Whiskers is a Goon. The flavor suggests that the Werewolves — "Saboteurs" — are the ones framing people. They found the mason on D1 and began a project of NKing power roles and therefore didn't have reason to NK Whiskers. The Goons, however, seem to be leading a scumhunting project that specifically excludes probable town lynches. 

I want to remind you of something about BBmolla:

If he does amazingly well and everyone thinks he's town at one point in the game- He's scum.

Believe me, when he's town his a fairly well player- as scum nobody even sees it coming O.o

Just thought I would point that out.

I'd love for this to be corroborated. Oh, well.

My notes, by the way. In case you're anxious.

[Trevor]

lolk.

Ok guys, I've cracked the case.

Trevor is the werewolf.
Shotgun and Whiskers are the goons.
Fitz is town.

I've put a lot of work into this and will be so proud if it turns out right. But I think the evidence very, very clearly supports this conclusion. I don't even care if we ultimately win or not. But whatever. Next post is where I organize my notes into a tripartite case.

You guys have me lined up to lynch for the sake of probability, but I personally don't think this is necessary. But I'll produce my case and then leave you to decide how much confidence to put into it. Okay?

Shotgun's claim from yesterday is a towntell imo, as well as his play involving lynching the WW. These reads are bullshit. How could you possibly be so certain of that? Having Fitz as town is weird, especially since Fitz hasn't been towny at all this game. I'm thinking:

Fitz and Psyche are mafia
Whiskers is the werewolf

[Psyche]

Yea...why don't you just shut up and wait until I post my case? Thanks. Scum.

[drmyshotgun]

Whoa, let's down the tone a bit.

I agree that Psyche's reads are not on solid ground yet, its kinda muddy, but I am interested in what he has to say. (used the nicest words I can think off)
Especially the part where he says: Fitz is Town.

[Psyche]

lol sorry, I never had a chance to say that before. This is the hardest I've ever worked on a case before. Hope it isn't all dirt.

Kcdaspot + Trevor come first, on a whim. Pretty soon. Halfway done.

[Psyche]

Done.

First, Trevor's scumminess and Trevor's connection with Kcdaspot. These are two separate points that I am making, but they are not mutually exclusive.

[spoiler="Trevor" is a Werewolf Name, P1]Trevor is probably the last werewolf. 

Before his relatively weak towntell in post 54, his early posts consist of not only fluff, but of fluff that reads as disingenuous and manufactured. He asks a set of questions that definitely

matter

and make him look good, but don't count as content. His posts remind me of Staeg, my scumbuddy in Open 396. They are pretty effective as a scumstyle, but are ultimately vacuous and scummy.

After 54, however, he progressively changes a null read into a kcdaspot's-scumbud read.
68, 109 and 112, again, are helpful but not townful. One important highlight of these posts his his bandwagon on the raspberry wagon for weak reasons.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

I am being misread. :[

Anyway, Whiskers is my only townread. 

And Lucky, you're vote is still on me, it's way after what you guys call 'RVS'. So I'm definitely going to vote you.

Vote Luckyjt

DK, is that your only basis for a read on Lucky?

I feel like Darkling explained himself adequately.

Vote: rasberrylicious

until he does something, because right now, his posts are scum.

He presumably wagons because "his posts are scum" and there's a need for him to do something. Pathetic, and just like scum to justify taking a cookie from the jar with a short-but-definitely-

present

explanatory blurb.

But more importantly, in all this, he blatantly

ignores Whisker's case on Kcdaspot

and instead chooses to vote raspberry. Let's analyze this closer.

Finally, which of you, (4) Raspberrylicious - BBMolla, Trevor, drmyshotgun, Kassadin, actually thinks raspberrylicious is actually scum?

And why?

Cause he's scum and won't put effort into posting unless we run him up.

Whiskers is probably scum too.  Maybe.  Still deciding, give me a bit.

Don't tell anybody, but Whiskers and I are scum partners.

Besides the scumclaim, he hasn't done shit and everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

I don't like the bandwagon on Kcda that much. He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player more than a scum-motivated player.

Whiskers and Darkling are townreads for their Whiskers' analysis and Darkling's read list.

Sorry, I've been extremely busy. Just my thoughts after catching up.

This

, however, is the clincher. Look closely. 
Why is he voting for raspberry?

everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

Why does he think kcdaspot is town?

He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player

Think about this. Let X = a single, constant justification for a belief.
Trevor thinks raspberry is SCUM because of X.
Trevor thinks kcdaspot is TOWN because of X.

Does this make sense? No. Because Trevor scumslipped and failed to manufacture this post properly. He is scumbuds with kcdaspot and wanted raspberry lynched because he was NOT kcdaspot.[/spoiler]

Next, I will consider Kcdaspot's activities regarding Trevor. Alone, neither of these are enough to connect Trevor to Kcdaspot, but together we have a strong case that 1) Kcdaspot has been waging a WIFOM campaign regarding Trevor from his first post with the sole intent of distancing from him and 2) that Trevor, instead, has been actively ignoring him and

indirectly (and thus furtively)

working to keep him from being lynched.

Spoiler: Pt2: Trevor is a name for a Werewolf's Best Friend

Trevor is most probably the last werewolf. 

I believe that kcdaspot initiated a strategic WIFOM campaign on Trevor starting on 186 and 188 and culminating on 256-257. Kcdaspot obviously has the gambitting spirit and it makes the most sense for it to be that way. His goal was to activate within us the Ambiguity Effect — our unwillingness to consider options involving pronounced uncertainty. We cannot allow this tactic to be successful — Trevor is clearly the werewolf.

First, I will catalog kcdaspot's WIFOM campaign.

VOTE: trevor

Who the fuck are you and why do you have a normal name?

Fos: Kass

Trevor vote.

I think trevor may be scummy after reading his iso.

He's STILL voting darkling after voting hime for quote "two odd foses"

And now he says darkling is town. And he doesn't unvote. HMMMM

This is so botched up as to be an obviously strategic move to leave connections with Trevor. He is definitely NOT distancing from Trevor here; he is, in fact, "laying a tell". 

Alone, we would only get WIFOMy about this. 
There are two reasons I don't think we have to — 1. Kcdaspot revealed his plans so obviously in his self-hammer post, and 2. Trevor himself is scummy, and

along with that

his own behavior shows obvious connections to Kcdaspot.

At the

very least

I'm thinking the following quote is a way of kcdaspot backtracking on his Trevor connections by WIFOMing them to oblivion. 

VOTE: kcdaspot

PAHAHAHAHAHA

I GO DOWN OUTTING THE MASON GROUP FUCKERS.

HEY OTHER SCUM FUCKS: PROPOSITION.

MY PARTNER GOES AFTER WHISKERSCONFMASON AND YOU GUISE TAKE CARE OF EITHER TREVOR OR MOLLA.

IF YOU HAVE A BETTER READ ON THE MASONY THAN ME GO AHEAD AND KILL WHO EVER IS LAST MASON GUY THEN. DON'T NEED A NAMED TOWNIE DON'T WE?

LATER CLOWNS

Kcdaspot chose BBMolla because he seemed like a plausible townlynch upon whom a reasonable amount of doubt could be placed on. Trevor, however, was the plan from the beginning. Why Trevor? Because Trevor is Kcdaspot's scumbuddy and Kcdaspot knows that townies naturally avoid considerations of WIFOM. I know from my studies of psychology where this natural avoidance comes from — but it's a common aspect of site meta by itself.


I don't expect this case on kcdaspot alone to get you to agree with me about Trevor. It, combined with my case on Trevor, should be the clincher.

Thank you. It's wordy, but every word counts. I'm no mastin.

[Psyche]

Exhausting. Give me some feedback and I'll take a breather before moving on to the guys we actually need to lynch today.

Tell me...Did I do good? :3

[drmyshotgun]

I'm no mastin.

I lol'd.

[Psyche]

...And?

[drmyshotgun]

Still reading.
Patience.

[Psyche]

Ya'ok. You know we're in two games together, right?

Now for the other gais.

[drmyshotgun]

Yes yes, I apologize.
But its just that I'm more interested in getting Mafia today.

[Psyche]

Yes yes, I apologize.
But its just that I'm more interested in getting Mafia today.

Yeah, I suppose that's rather hard to do as scum.

[drmyshotgun]

Kcdaspot was Werewolf. He said his team took out a Mason on Night 1 and was happy for that.
Lucky was the other victim on Night 1. Mafia took him out obviously.
Deity had motivation to kill Lucky. His interactions on Day 1 is mostly trying to shrug off Lucky's pestering around him.

Thus DeityKabuto (now Psyche) is like confirmed Mafia.
Lynch is a go, yes?