TM2012: White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.15

Thestatusquo (4) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez, Llamarble
Captain Haddock (3) - Amrun, Bub Bidderskins, Matias
Johhog (2) - Regfan, SocioPath
Benmage (1) - Johhog
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - Benmage
Matias (1) - Captain Haddock

Not Voting (1) - Thestatusquo

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, May 21, 2012, at 12:00 AM EDT (UTC-4).

Mod Notes

Bub Bidderskins is V/LA until May 14.

[Zachrulez]

I don't think you realize the fact that TSQ has pretty much been replacement dodging and not posting anything of value is a significant problem. You can call the lynch stupid all you want, but it actually does have more than a reasonable chance of hitting scum, and I'll be damned if I'm going to let him get deep into the game playing like this.

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

You could make that argument for anyone in the game. You're also erroneously assigning his lack of action and his type of lack of action no value to his odds of flipping scum.

[Zachrulez]

Also if you want a comment on something else I have a town read on Haddock and feel similarly about the idea of his lynch as you apparently do for a lynch of TSQ.

Out of pretty much everything regarding the bandwagon, Haddock's own comments about Matias resonate the most with me so pretty much between everyone on the Haddock wagon and Haddock himself, I'd be most willing to lynch Matias out of any of them, and that's really not saying much as I wouldn't even say I have a scumread on Matias more than I would acknowledge that I think Haddock made the best points out of everyone there, you know those points you've kinda flung aside as him being too interested in stuff related to him and completely ignoring the value of the comments as genuine scum hunting.

That's the kind of stuff day 1 mislynches are made of.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think you realize the fact that TSQ has pretty much been replacement dodging and not posting anything of value is a significant problem. You can call the lynch stupid all you want, but it actually does have more than a reasonable chance of hitting scum, and I'll be damned if I'm going to let him get deep into the game playing like this.

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

My current distribution is something like 0.8 scum in {Johhog, Matias, Regfan, singersigner, SocioPath, Zachrulez}, 0.8 scum in {Captain Haddock, Bud Bibberskins, Amrun}, 1.4 scum in {Thestatusquo, benmage, Llamarble}. 46.67% is pretty decent odds.

[Johhog]

UNVOTE: Benmage
VOTE: Amrun

[Amrun]

Bub - Zach has certainly been commenting on other things. Why would you say he hadn't.

Zach - I'm interested in what you mean by Haddock's scumhunting being genuine. Do you think he is RIGHT or do you think he is GENUINE?

[Zachrulez]

Bub - Zach has certainly been commenting on other things. Why would you say he hadn't.

Zach - I'm interested in what you mean by Haddock's scumhunting being genuine. Do you think he is RIGHT or do you think he is GENUINE?

More of the latter.

[Amrun]

But there is a good point in there about Matias somewhere? If so, I'd like you to point it out, because I dont' see it.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Bub - Zach has certainly been commenting on other things. Why would you say he hadn't.

Zach - I'm interested in what you mean by Haddock's scumhunting being genuine. Do you think he is RIGHT or do you think he is GENUINE?

It just seemed to me that he didn't do much else other than vote for TSQ. Now that's just anecdotal, as I haven't done a good read on Zach, so take that where you will. Regardless, I don't think Zach is the lynch for today, but I no longer think he's obv town.

[Bub Bidderskins]

I don't think you realize the fact that TSQ has pretty much been replacement dodging and not posting anything of value is a significant problem. You can call the lynch stupid all you want, but it actually does have more than a reasonable chance of hitting scum, and I'll be damned if I'm going to let him get deep into the game playing like this.

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

My current distribution is something like 0.8 scum in {Johhog, Matias, Regfan, singersigner, SocioPath, Zachrulez}, 0.8 scum in {Captain Haddock, Bud Bibberskins, Amrun}, 1.4 scum in {Thestatusquo, benmage, Llamarble}. 46.67% is pretty decent odds.

That's not the chance of him being scum. You also need to factor in the very real chance that your whole distribution is complete bollocks.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Like seriously, how are socio and Johhog in the towniest bracket while TSQ is in the scummiest? What have they done more than TSQ?

[Amrun]

Both have done significantly more than tsq. ???

[Amrun]

So, sad news: I can't share why I now suspect TSQ. I don't know if I'm willing to stake his whole alignment on what I wanted to share but cannot, but it does make me lean scum on him.

[Regfan]

Also let me know what you think of Benmage, he's not being mentioned much, but he's bothering me a lot.

I dislike his drop in activity but that seems to be something that's happening around the board for him so is null, I also still want him to explain his 180 flip on Matias when he found out he was DH though I'm assuming it's some sort of meta-realization. Other than that I think he's town and have a reasonably strong read on him though truth be told a lot of it drops down to 'gut' which I normally try to avoid but can't in this case. Also I find his talk about taking a town role to be genuine.

2. He said avoiding a bandwagon was likely to extend rvs, not that it was a scumtell, so that's not a contradiction. The rest is only true if he's town and there's scum motivation for saying it. Has his "analysis" this game came up with any reason for voting anyone?

Okay while it might not be a blatant contradiction it's still very easy to follow the thought process behind why Matias asked Zach that question and 'the rest is true if he's town only' means that it's entirely plausible that his actions can come from a town point of view meaning that your 'strong scum read' on him is unjustified and probably wrong. As for his analysis coming up with reasoning time will tell.

I really don't like the TSQ wagon. It's just soooooo easy to get on it. All you have to do is say "lol, shea hasn't posted anything yet, must be scumz". I especially don't like zach and CES making their votes useless by putting them on somebody who hasn't posted yet. Does that make TSQ town? No. But let me put it this way:

TSQ IS NOT GETTING LYNCHED TODAY

I will be fucking pissed off if we lynch a lurker on D-1. Here's what we do, we lynch scum today, then TSQ gets the night to read back up on this game. If he doesn't post anything worthwhile, then we can start lynching him. But as for right now, a lynch on TSQ is stupid and easy and anti-town.

If TSQ was super-busy and hadn't posted anywhere on the site at all then his absence would be acceptable and null however the fact that he's posted elsewhere on the site and apparently has spent some time in Scumchat shows that while he may be busy he still has time for the game but hasn't actually spent any on it, that's not null, it's scummy.

[Zachrulez]

But there is a good point in there about Matias somewhere? If so, I'd like you to point it out, because I dont' see it.

The point about him fueling suspicion about Haddock without committing to it. I see it as a valid point.

I still have a town read on Matias for overall play, but I can see Haddock's position coming from a pro-town POV.

[Llamarble]

So, sad news: I can't share why I now suspect TSQ. I don't know if I'm willing to stake his whole alignment on what I wanted to share but cannot, but it does make me lean scum on him.

I couldn't figure this out. Maybe one of my teammates will find it.

I'm in basically the same situation on Johhog.

[Johhog]

I'm in basically the same situation on Johhog.

I'd pay to know what this is, it's pretty hard to defend yourself otherwise.

But I'll tell you one thing; if you suspect me for out of game reasons (lex Regfan) I'll be fucking mad post-game.

[Matias]

But there is a good point in there about Matias somewhere? If so, I'd like you to point it out, because I dont' see it.

I think what he means is that at this point, most onlookers to the Me vs. Haddock feud would narrow it down to town vs. scum. He just believes that Haddock is the town one. I think that's based on the fact that I told Haddock to search my replies to his case, because I'm not writing them down again.

[Matias]

Reg: I think Benmage was 100% meta on that flip. I was scum with him during a game before, and he knows I take the convoluted route as town (I have a crazy thought process and will throw myself into blah blah blah blah, you know this, as town. However, I'm more reserved and calculated as scum)

He just recognized this meta with DemonHybrid, not Matias.

[Matias]

mm...I'm getting a second opinion on whether TSQ-lurking + TSQ-lying about meatworld problems + out-of-game posting = TSQ scum from my team. I'll give you guys an update because I'm at a loss.

[Amrun]

But there is a good point in there about Matias somewhere? If so, I'd like you to point it out, because I dont' see it.

The point about him fueling suspicion about Haddock without committing to it. I see it as a valid point.

I still have a town read on Matias for overall play, but I can see Haddock's position coming from a pro-town POV.

How is that a valid point? How do you see what he said as being accurate?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think you realize the fact that TSQ has pretty much been replacement dodging and not posting anything of value is a significant problem. You can call the lynch stupid all you want, but it actually does have more than a reasonable chance of hitting scum, and I'll be damned if I'm going to let him get deep into the game playing like this.

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

My current distribution is something like 0.8 scum in {Johhog, Matias, Regfan, singersigner, SocioPath, Zachrulez}, 0.8 scum in {Captain Haddock, Bud Bibberskins, Amrun}, 1.4 scum in {Thestatusquo, benmage, Llamarble}. 46.67% is pretty decent odds.

That's not the chance of him being scum. You also need to factor in the very real chance that your whole distribution is complete bollocks.

Nah. I spent some time calibrating that and I'm pretty sure it's an accurate representation of my beliefs.

[Equinox]

Benmage has been prodded.

[Matias]

But there is a good point in there about Matias somewhere? If so, I'd like you to point it out, because I dont' see it.

The point about him fueling suspicion about Haddock without committing to it. I see it as a valid point.

I still have a town read on Matias for overall play, but I can see Haddock's position coming from a pro-town POV.

Oh, didn't see this.

My two main arguments were against CES (now out of date) and Haddock. I'm just feeling around. Johhog, TSQ, Benmage all pique my interest but that doesn't mean I've forgotten Haddock.

This is Day 1, it's instrumental and I think we all know that.

[Benmage]

Hey guys, been off site for like 2 days. And I just player like 7 hours of rugby... So give me the weekend to catchup.