TM2012: Scummies 2011.5 - Let the credits roll!

[BBmolla]

I'm not really feeling a KK lynch today btw.

[BBmolla]

Hey KK what's your read on me?

[Lost Butterfly]

Day 2, Votecount 5

Magua (1) - DeasVail

Not voting

(10): xRECKONERx, MagnaofIllusion, BBmolla, Kublai Khan, Magua, Quilford, T-Bone, theamatuer, hitogoroshi, Zar

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or no-lynch.

Deadline:

June 3rd at 4:01pm (EDT)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-06-03 16:01:00)

Countdown to the end of First Half Judging

: (expired on 2012-05-24 16:01:00)

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm sorry that you don't want to hear that your BBmolla read is wrong, but in all likelihood it is. Both DeasVail and BBmolla knew that my train of thinking was town as fuck. DeasVail spoke up for me and BBmolla didn't. My conclusion is that BBmolla isn't as towny as you want to believe.

I have yet to hear anything in the way shape or form of a case on BB from you other than “I was Townie as fuck in my stance and BB didn’t back me up” which rings pretty false to me. And the other points I have seen on BB as scum haven't really make much sense to me either.

You have something that might be convincing please by all means bring it to the forefront. Until then we’ve apparently gotten to the “No U” point of the discussion.

Are you serious? Even my bemoaning was half-assed yesterday. You've played with me before. When I'm "in" a game, I'm in it and I make my keyboard cry for mercy to prove my points, no matter the alignment.

So you should say that I should conclude you were bored Town Day 1 by virtue of your terrible reads and complete lack of scum-hunting?

You read my town-tell previous to this and could find nothing wrong with it (other than timing, apparently) so now you're just trying to re-convince yourself of your bias.

This is the only part of that whole paragraph that bears even discussing. What part of the phrases “I don’t really believe in ‘Town-tells’ in general’ and ‘KK could easily fake said tells as scum’ leads you to believe that said point had any bearing on my read on you?

Do you realize that you're telling me that you've calculated the area of a scum triangle with only one known point (Captain Ajax)?

You do realize that this is Mafia not Geometry so your attempt to state it impossible to find scum partners for Ajax from Day 1 isn’t really valid, right? Scum teams do get caught from relational tells to one partner. It isn’t some grandly novel idea.

The rest of this is just posturing and laziness. Re-generate your read on my given the new insight you've gained.

Re-generate my read on you whut? What new insights are you talking about?

[DeasVail]

MoI

If you don't care what my reasoning is, I don't see why I should provide it just to please you. I highly doubt that my reasoning is something no one else has realised, but if I need to convince people, I will.

There is also no need (as far as I'm aware) to be so obsessed with not voting. Your post implies that I'm screaming "QUICKLYNCH MAGUA NOW!"

I actually have a weak townread on theam now, but I do maintain that there is no way he is more town because of Ajax's flip. I do not like PoE that uses bad logic to clear people. It's noted that you're trying to paint me as scummy because of it.

Er, have you read anything I've posted? Obviously the fact that The Fonz was the only one trying to get theam lynched supports theam-scum.

Please enlighten with me with these supposedly abundant reasons for Reck being town. Slandaar and I were of the same opinion that people just wanted to think him town (which probably happens in every game where Reck is scum) with no good reason to think it. I'm not clearing Reck, but I think I have something which indicates Reck-town if Magua's town. And if Magua's scum, I don't really care because that means another scum is likely to be lynched. Instead of insulting me and pseudo-painting me as scummy can you actually be useful and tell me what's wrong with my reasoning?

MoI is no longer a townread. I'm going to reconsider.

What do you mean about KK and calls for explanation?

Apart from the towntell, the other main reason I have for thinking KK-town is his asking for my alignment preference, which makes complete sense to me considering he has Amrun and Kuribo on his team.

[Zar]

Going over the Ajax Interactions first:


People voted by Capt. Ajax

#6 Reckoner
#84 hito
#103 Quilford
#131 hito
#194 theamatuer

Spoiler: Interactions:

#38 Soft-Defense of DeasVail, soft attack of Quilford.
#60 Asks quilford for second suspects (below hito)
#84 Votes Hito
#86 Likes Quilford's answers.
#103 Attacks Quilford for #15. Attacks Quilford for attacking hito.
#107 says Hito is only scum in his wagon if Quil is town. Says he does not suspect DV or MoI.
#114. Defends from hito's 47.
#116. Asks MoI about hito's vote on him.
#128. Calls attention on Gaoth and theam for lurking.
#129 defends Gaoth wagon
#131 Votes Hito for putting him on the wagon lead. Calls Quilford town.
#148 Defends the Gaoth wagon again, asks BBMolla to elaborate on his thoughts on DV.
#180 Goes on with BBMolla about DV.
#180 wants theam to explain his Molla vote.
#194 Soft-Defends Gaoth, Votes theam for exhibiting "low poster suspicious level of contribution."
#203 Continues to suspect theam over BBMolla vote. Soft Defends Gaoth.
#236 asks theam reads on Zar and hito, asks Zar to read theam/hito.
#309 Soft-dedends Gaoth (yet again).

So:

People ignored by Ajax:

Reckoner, Kublai Khan, MoI,

Fonz

, Zar, T-Bone

People Defended by Ajax:

Gaoth, DeasVail,

People attacked by Ajax:

Hito, Quilford, BBMolla, theamatuer.

[Zar]

Based off my previous post, I am going to say that it's most likely that The scum is among

{Reck, KK, MoI, T-Bone} + One of {Gaoth/Magua, DV}

However:

DEASVAIL:

While my impression of DeasVail is that he has been coasting, I find it hardly probable that he could be partnered with Ajax based on his vote being parked on him all through Day One and helping foster his wagon.

MoI's: #35, #111, #130, and #261 are unlikely to come from an Ajax Buddy.

I think Reck could be town for the reasons stated in my previous D1 read. But nothing exonerates him entirely.

So, I'm leaning to the scum being among:

{KK > T-Bone > Reck} + Gaoth/Magua.

The Fonz Kill + players claiming to not have voted for Fonz to hold a scummie throws me off. Only somebody within Judging Group 1A could have known what award was being given out. Ajax was lynched, and unless scum have daytalk, there only way to tell his buddies about the award that was going to be given is if someone else within 1A is scum.

[xRECKONERx]

V, what is it that links me to Magua so strongly?

PREDIT : I don't know why people are having a hard time believing Mafia have day talk. In a game where a bulk of the strategizing happens in the day due to unique mechanics, I would actually find it odd if scum did not have day talk.

[Zar]

Zar

Yesterday you really avoided commenting in any way other than very weak “I don’t like his posts" statement. Please explain why you, as hypo-Town, avoided commenting on anything of Ajax’s play until he had already nailed down himself as scum with his terrible fake-claim.

Ajax was very much explored by everyone in here. His obvious lie of a claim was an evident hail-mary attempt to survive. I didn't end up voting him for the hammer because I wanted to post my Reck and DV when I got home. >.<

Also please explain why Post 416 isn’t something that warrants to rope today. Because that is exactly the kind of post I expect to see from scum … a PBP ISO review that looks at each post for ways to consider it scummy and comes to a conclusion completely divorced from the actual realities of how the Day played out. Your unvote approximately 11 hours later to me is a big red-flag, especially if scum do have Daytalk.

PBP ISO is how I read. Things that look suspicious I comment about. The unvote came 11 hours later because I did my read before going to bed and waking up fresh in mind to realize it's very unlikely that Scum in distress would look forward to lift up a scum wagon to counter his own.

[DeasVail]

Am I V?

[DeasVail]

So where I'm at now is:

I think it's very likely that Magua is scum. If that is the case, I'd say I think Reck is the last scum, just because I have townreads on everyone else.

Although an Ajax/Magua/Reck team makes complete sense to me, I'm bound to be wrong, so odds are one of my townreads is wrong.

[DeasVail]

Actually,

Zar:

Please explain how you came to have your scumread on KK.

[Lost Butterfly]

Prodding Quilford

[MagnaofIllusion]

If you don't care what my reasoning is, I don't see why I should provide it just to please you. I highly doubt that my reasoning is something no one else has realised, but if I need to convince people, I will.

Sure, if you want to self-select for me thinking you are useless by playing the “I’m not going to give my reasons until necessary” game then by all means go ahead.

I actually have a weak townread on theam now, but I do maintain that there is no way he is more town because of Ajax's flip. I do not like PoE that uses bad logic to clear people. It's noted that you're trying to paint me as scummy because of it.

1. It is simply your opinion that the PoE is bad. Most other people don’t believe so at this stage and we only have 2 remaining scum so it is hardly a case of only scum pushing that particular line of thought.
2. If you have a weak Townread on them your posts today bemoaning why other players have considered them Town are pointless. The only reason to keep going on about the issue is if you wanted to push a TheAm wagon. If you don’t understand how your stance is not Pro-Town given you have a Townread on TheAm it can be discussed post-game.

Er, have you read anything I've posted? Obviously the fact that The Fonz was the only one trying to get theam lynched supports theam-scum.

I’d love to have a gif-macro that says “No, no, no, no” to paste in here. You are completely looking at this backwards. The fact that Fonz was the only one actively pushing the lynch with scum-hunting yet TheAm had 4 votes is indication that he’s Town. Because the three other votes there (KK / Ajax / Magua) were made for questionable reasons. When you have people pushing a lynching without actually doing any substantiation it is a sign that it is a bad wagon … aka on Town.

Please enlighten with me with these supposedly abundant reasons for Reck being town. Slandaar and I were of the same opinion that people just wanted to think him town (which probably happens in every game where Reck is scum) with no good reason to think it. I'm not clearing Reck, but I think I have something which indicates Reck-town if Magua's town. And if Magua's scum, I don't really care because that means another scum is likely to be lynched. Instead of insulting me and pseudo-painting me as scummy can you actually be useful and tell me what's wrong with my reasoning?

Reck has made several posts that our QT have pointed out are Town Reck. That’s all I’m going to say on the matter. Honestly there is little to be gained at this stage by specifically giving behaviors out. He’s not getting wagoned today so there is no reason to go into detail to satisfy you. Live with disappointment on that today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Zar

– so first let me ask …. Why is your partner list made completely of Ajax to Other interactions from Post 480 and not based on interactions in both directions?

The Fonz Kill + players claiming to not have voted for Fonz to hold a scummie throws me off. Only somebody within Judging Group 1A could have known what award was being given out. Ajax was lynched, and unless scum have daytalk, there only way to tell his buddies about the award that was going to be given is if someone else within 1A is scum

I think it’s been parsed out pretty clearly that scum are more than likely to have Daytalk so going immediately to the assumption that there has to be scum besides Ajax in 1A is pretty poor.

Ajax was very much explored by everyone in here. His obvious lie of a claim was an evident hail-mary attempt to survive. I didn't end up voting him for the hammer because I wanted to post my Reck and DV when I got home. >.<

This is a complete non-answer. It doesn’t matter that Ajax was under fire by others. You specifically did not comment on ANYTHING about him until he had been put at L-1 and made his obvious fake-claim. No comment at all about the cases made by Quilford and I. Your complete lack of interaction in both directions fits the behavior of scum-buddies who don’t want to leave links to each other when 1 buddy is under fire (as Ajax was all day long).

[MagnaofIllusion]

So I did an ISO review of Fonz in the QT (too keep from cluttering the thread). If he was killed for reasons other than just snuffing out a PowerRole then I think those reasons would probably be one of the following if not a combination -

Mild suspicion of Zar ... it started the game strong but faded as the day went on.
Suspicion of Deas / TheAm
Last post where he specifically posted that he thought both KK and Magua aren't both scum together.

--

@Deas

-

That this game being your personal 5th choice for games a consideration should be given to your being here given your like for playing scum? I know specifically in Zach's game you outright stated you don't get lynched as scum. What were your partner's feelings on taking a possible scum role PM?

[Quilford]

i will have a post within 24h guaranteed

[MagnaofIllusion]

KK Short Case – why I think he’s scum.

1.

Complete lack of voting activity Day 1.

KK only made a single vote yesterday … a vote for TheAm in his first post that I have already said was suspect. The lack of votes does not fit with his ‘scum-hunting’ from Day 1.

He drops his vote on TheAm in Post 20. When is the next time he specifically mentions TheAm’s directly? Post 153 in his reads post where TheAm simply is gets the following line –

theamatuer - has yet to post anything pro-town.

He’s not calling him actual scum … simply saying that he hasn’t posted anything Pro-Town. Those are two different things. I think Deas’s posting today is completely Ant-Town but don’t consider him scum.

KK does in this same post call Quilford ‘scum’, say that Reck ‘scum-slipped’, and that he’s getting ‘scummy-vibe’ from T-Bone. And yet his vote is still parked on TheAm. More on Quilford and T-Bone below and note he never followed up with his Reck slip at all.

He instead makes attacking Quilford (who was on Ajax strongly), defending himself from me, and discussing judging with Hito between those posts. He then moves on to back and forth with BBMolla.

Next we get the following in Post 170 –

@BBmolla - Re: Quilford - I posted an observation and question to him in Post 131, he posted twice since then and didn't answer it. I figure calling him scum would get his attention. I didn't really expect it to attract your attention so strongly.

Here he’s saying that his calling Quilford scum wasn’t because he actually thought he was scum but to ‘get his attention’. He further elaborates in this post that his the pharases he used in Post 153 like ‘non-Town vibes’ were not meant to indicate actual suspicion. So he’s basically move away from calling anyone actual scum in 153. I think that’s important as it shows that he was not actually Town posting reads in 153 but scum putting out content after being pressured about not scum-hunting.

2.

Interactions between KK and Ajax.

From Post 133 we have the following chainsaw defense of Ajax in attacking Quilford –

Well, the thing is. You mention that Captain Ajax is attempting to buddy to xRECKONERx by flattering him (Post 67) which is a hell of a stretch. But theamatuer blatantly states "OMG its reckoner. He's like a legend." but that gets no reaction from you at all. Except after the fact where you mention that pretty town due to the enthusiasm involved.

The rest of your analysis in Post 4033077 seems to just another episode in a series of "Let me interpret anything said as a sign of scuminess". For fun, could you analyze MLK Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech for scumminess?

Here he is trying to handwave away suspicion of Ajax by Quil as an effort to just find scummy things as opposed to specifically addressing why posts (such as 125) were wrong. He also tries to portray Quilford as inconsistent for his disparate treatment of Deas and Ajax ala buddying.

Next in Post 153 we get the following read on Ajax –

Captain Ajax - His hitogoroshi vote was horrible. Both times. Overall though, he's not setting off any alarms.

The essence of fence-sitting. He points out behavior that he dislikes (the hito votes) but says that Ajax isn’t ‘setting off alarms’. No comment that he’s actually Town. It’s the perfect springboard to go any direction.\

That is the full extent of his Ajax interactions. Some attempts to defuse the wagon but nothing concrete at all regarding making an alignment commitment or showing posts from Ajax that showed Town / Scum intent.

As for Ajax’s interactions with him? None at all. KK does not merit a single mention in Ajax’s entire ISO.

3

. Response to being called scum by me Day 1.

I’ve already gone over this in detail. His vitriolic reaction to suggestions he was scum don’t really mesh well with a Town mindset. It’s one thing to suspect every player who looks at you with suspicion aka Deas. It’s another to go off on a rage tangent. If he is scum with Ajax the prospect of 2/3rds of his team being identified early Day 1 would certainly explain his over-reaction.

4

. His “There is no benefit to giving reads from your Teammates” stance.

Again … there is no downside to giving out the thoughts of your teammates in thread. If you are scum and flip such those thoughts can easily be ignored. However someone who flips Town will have those 3 other voices that can be considered also sets of Town eyes when players are considering who is scum. The only people who could possibly not think this is a good idea is the Mafia.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magua

- what has happened to your Hito suspicion from yesterday? You were pretty vocal about his judging block reasoning being bad. Also you never addressed my concerns that no-one else in your group seemed to have them.

@Zar / TheAm

- please weigh in on this without giving any direct details. Did you find hito's logic in the Day 1 judging QT to be suspect?

[Kublai Khan]

Hey KK what's your read on me?

I'm really not sure. You haven't really done anything scummy, but you haven't really done anything super-towny either. So I have a very conflicted read on you.

The fact that you're avoiding giving an opinion on me gives me a bad feeling that you might be scum waiting to see if MagnaofIllusion's ramblings have any traction before committing to a read. "Not really feeling a KK lynch" is not a strong position.

OTOH, Amrun thinks that your posts are genuine and says that she has a pretty good track-record of reading you, so... You're in the null box, atm.

You have something that might be convincing please by all means bring it to the forefront. Until then we’ve apparently gotten to the “No U” point of the discussion.

Actually you're the one who reached the "NO U" point of the discussion. (see what I did there?)

But seriously, you've already made it clear that there's no real point to talking to you.

I give you evidence that I had a town-mindset, you dismissed it as irrelevant.
I explain the reasoning behind all my actions, you chose to ignore them.
I point out that your conclusions are the product of non-objective non-logical thinking, you freely admit that you have confirmation bias.

So, why are you bothering doing all this work bringing up a case on me? You've admitted that your critical thinking skills are deeply flawed, so predictably any and all attempts I have made to reason with you have failed. You are town. You are annoying. And you aren't as good at mafia as you think you are.

So what the fuck is this dog & pony show for?

Group 2C is done judging.

Vote: Magua

[MagnaofIllusion]

So, why are you bothering doing all this work bringing up a case on me? You've admitted that your critical thinking skills are deeply flawed, so predictably any and all attempts I have made to reason with you have failed. You are town. You are annoying. And you aren't as good at mafia as you think you are.

So what the fuck is this dog & pony show for?

Group 2C is done judging.

Vote: Magua

Let me summarize this portion of your post.

1. Insult insult insult empty rhetoric. Your attempt to undermine me by lying (as I have never said my critical thinking skills are deeply flawed, nice strawman there) and throwing mud (oh, I'm not as good as I think I am). The last part doesn't really speak well for you since I was at least able to catch Ajax while you, if Town, were derping it up attacking Quilford.

2. What's the best way for scum who have had a case made on them to try to avoid it? Dismissing it out of hand and not addressing any of the points. Which is exactly what you did with a nice extra touch of mudslinging (again) by calling it a 'dog and pony' show. If you want to discuss why all those points don't indicate scum intent in your play feel free. Otherwise this is "Hmmm, I can't actually refute that so let's just insult MoI".

3. Voting simply because your group is done yet no sign that other groups are? Yeah, I think that's scummy as fuck given what happened with the Best Newbie yesterday.

Consider my vote on KK the minute all groups are finished.

[xRECKONERx]

@DV: How the fuck did your read on me go from "Magua town -> Reck town" to "Magua scum -> Reck scum" in the span of like two posts?

I'm not sure what to think about MoI's case on KK. On the one hand, it's pretty convincing... on the other hand, I'm not sure if any of those points specifically make KK scum. However, I'm almost willing to vote KK solely because of the refusal-to-point-out-the-scumslip-I-made nonevent.

T-Bone's inactivity + him going "lol I flipped a coin" gives me pause but I really can't read him, ever. Someone in my judging QT thinks he's one of the towniest players in the game and I don't understand.

I still stand by my earlier reads on Quilford & hito (insomuch that they're town as fuck) and we can upgrade BBmolla to that list as well. If the amateur wasn't a true counterwagon then I need to rethink him being confirmedtown.

Would still prefer a Magua lynch today. Kublai Khan would be a nice secondary lynch.

By the way, inb4Magua-flips-scum-and-DV-tries-to-mislynch-me-tomorrow-when-he-does. Lining up mislynches is PRO.

Vote: Magua

[MagnaofIllusion]

Let's everyone note that Magua is at L-3 right now.

My group is

DEFINATELY not

complete judging.

Any more votes for Magua put him within "Oops, wasn't paying attention wink wink nod nod" range to fuck the Judging process over. I don't think he's Town but I don't see the point in rushing today off until everything is tied up nicely. Hell two of the other games are still in N1.

Please give us the two days we have left before judging deadline to get this accomplished. We

REALLY

do not want scum free to decide this set of Scummies!

[Kublai Khan]

Fine. Hurry up.

Unvote

[DeasVail]

Got almost no time, but I'll try posting.

MoI:

I only have a weak townread on theam, and I think he could be scum. So, I want to get rid of thoughts that the Ajax flip makes him town, so that I don't have to do it if I think he's scum later in the game. I only have a weak townread on him recently though, and
I'm not going to push it any further.

Regarding the theam wagon, I disagree with your logic, but I don't think there's much I can do about that.

Why do you expect me to have a townread on Reck when the reason you do is your QT?

Where did you get 5th choice from? I would have liked to be scum here, but I didn't have the choice to be scum and I'm not sure whether I would have taken scum if I did.

Eh, will sort out the rest later.