NY 151: Playground Mafia (Game Over-Mafia Win!)

[StrangerCoug]

Anything fair game goes.

[Fallman7]

Ok seeing how this is going I am going to wait untill the next day to put anyone on the choping block. I don't want to assume and get myself in trouble from the get go.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Ok seeing how this is going I am going to wait untill the next day to put anyone on the choping block. I don't want to assume and get myself in trouble from the get go.

Kill it. Kill it now PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE HELP ME KILL IT DEAD>

[Nero Cain]

So im still voting scum.

doesn't really matter. There's no support for him today. Why are you being so useless?

[HezLucky]

Ok seeing how this is going I am going to wait untill the next day to put anyone on the choping block. I don't want to assume and get myself in trouble from the get go.

Kill it. Kill it now PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE HELP ME KILL IT DEAD>

And yet he's still not dead

[Psyche]

I'm afraid I was wrong.

In the last 101 instances of accusations of flailing that occurred in Large Normal games on this site (excluding ongoings), these were directed at scum at a rate only about 3% better than random.

This made me think flailing wasn't a tell at all.

However, when you constrain the pool of data to accusations of flailing

made by town

(which I have 63 instances of), these were directed at scum at a rate of more than 9% better than random. This suggests that flailing identified by town, at the least, is not a total null tell regarding the accused and may work to complement a well-built case.

So sorry for the earlier misinformation. I'm 1/3 through reading the thread now.

[DeasVail]

Get excited guys!

DeasVail is back in the game.

So town that I'd rather kill myself than lynch them:

Code_X-

I've become a little less sure recently, but a quick look over him again and he seems to be really town.

What changed between your vote for me and later unvote? How do you feel about the game right now?

Maxous

Probably town:

Benmage-

His lack of involvement in the game recently seems similar to how I've been feeling. His posts don't give the impression of trying to look town as scum would.

Fallman7-

Pretty much because of Junpei, but his post does make my tail tingle.

Why are you concerned about getting into trouble?

HezLucky

Mastin2-

I'm not sure about him, but I think I'll put him back here for now.

Mini-Lib

LLD-

Why did you vote kdowns instead of me? Based on what you posted, I'd expect a vote on me. Also, how do you feel about the game?

Psyche

Scooby

StrangerCoug-

Do you think the kills themselves could give an indication of whether it's multiball or not?

Could be scum:

Maxwell-

Eh.

FakeGod-

What's been preventing me from putting him as stronger scum is 1774, which I find to be the kind of interesting post that would only come from town. Otherwise, it really seems like he could be scum to me. His posting has been minimal, but not controversial and I think it's possible he's just purposely flying under the radar. However, another thing I question is whether he would be more pro-town if scum.

Nero Cain-

I'm not sure about him and don't really see him as particularly townish or scummy. Antihero seemed convinced he was town though.

RedFF-

Eh. Maybe slightly leaning town.

Probably scum:

Kdowns-

Because of macros, but his lack of posting makes me sad Come back please so I can attack you better.

OhGodMyLife-

I think he's scum based on a quick read. I don't see anything I find to be indicative of town and there are things about his posting, which I can't articulate right now, that make me think scum.

Hmm, sorry, I didn't put in as much effort as I had hoped. I'll try to focus more on individual players later.

[StrangerCoug]

StrangerCoug-

Do you think the kills themselves could give an indication of whether it's multiball or not?

In most cases, but not all. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. While it requires scum to be either really inattentive or really unlucky, one kill could go off each night in a multiball and we'd only learn it's a multiball through the Mafia factions having names once we have flipped scum. Three kills a night? Could be Mafia-SK-vig. Four or more kills a night, though, and for it not to be a multiball requires either some of the kills to be indirect (and that assumes the game is not bastard mod) or the game to be unbalanced.

Why am I talking about the improbable, though? This is all Mafia theory and my vote on Nero Cain is based on what he seems to

KNOW

rather than have guessed about the setup.

[Code_X]

What changed between your vote for me and later unvote? How do you feel about the game right now?

Nothing's changed. Your still in a list of about 7/8 I think are scum at the point.

However, at this point Kdowns has more chance of lynching. So makes more sense to put my vote somewhere where it's useful.

Not sure why but I think the more questions you end up asking the scummier you get. Your list isn't great neither.

@ Fallman7 - do you mean tomorrow as in tomorrow real life day or tomorrow game day?

[Nero Cain]

StrangerCoug-

Do you think the kills themselves could give an indication of whether it's multiball or not?

In most cases, but not all. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. While it requires scum to be either really inattentive or really unlucky, one kill could go off each night in a multiball and we'd only learn it's a multiball through the Mafia factions having names once we have flipped scum. Three kills a night? Could be Mafia-SK-vig. Four or more kills a night, though, and for it not to be a multiball requires either some of the kills to be indirect (and that assumes the game is not bastard mod) or the game to be unbalanced.

Why am I talking about the improbable, though? This is all Mafia theory and my vote on Nero Cain is based on what he seems to

KNOW

rather than have guessed about the setup.

Its the only logical fucking explanation. There's no fucking vig. Those shots were terrible. Can a vig be terrible? Sure. Like I said if there were three shots I would buy a terrible vig. But with two shots and most if not all large games being mutli-scum (mafi team, cult, SK) The chances of us having an everyday vig are -99.9%. I'm tempted to be the days lynch just so I can flip town and laugh at how fucking terrible you are.

[OhGodMyLife]

Sticking with my vote. DV, maybe some day you'll be able to articulate what suddenly made you list me as apparently the scummiest player in the game, but for now I'm just going to ignore you because there is nothing to respond to in what you said.

[FakeGod]

FakeGod-

What's been preventing me from putting him as stronger scum is 1774, which I find to be the kind of interesting post that would only come from town. Otherwise, it really seems like he could be scum to me. His posting has been minimal, but not controversial and I think it's possible he's just purposely flying under the radar. However, another thing I question is whether he would be more pro-town if scum.

I have my reasons. Also, regarding meta, I was never scum in any of my games. (I completed 15 games total; I keep track in my wiki) Therefore, unfortunately there are no data I could bring as evidence to support that I am town from any of my games.

[StrangerCoug]

Its the only logical fucking explanation. There's no fucking vig. Those shots were terrible. Can a vig be terrible? Sure. Like I said if there were three shots I would buy a terrible vig. But with two shots and most if not all large games being mutli-scum (mafi team, cult, SK) The chances of us having an everyday vig are -99.9%.

You can stop preaching to the choir. It's been clear since before I voted you that I don't see a vig as likely. The reason for my vote is because you said it was a multiball, which I define as two Mafia teams. Not a single Mafia team and a serial killer—two Mafia teams. I have asked you to supply me with a third-party statement that a single Mafia team and a serial killer can constitute a multiball and you have not done so. Until you do this, I consider you to be

outed scum

. The presence or absence of a vig was never relevant as we both disagree there is one—the current argument is a dispute over whether or not a single Mafia team and an SK is a multiball.

I'm tempted to be the days lynch just so I can flip town and laugh at how fucking terrible you are.

Nice appeal to fear. You are not going to laugh—if you're town,

YOU

are the stupid one with your complete lack of comprehension about Mafia terminology. Now die.

[DeasVail]

Sticking with my vote. DV, maybe some day you'll be able to articulate what suddenly made you list me as apparently the scummiest player in the game, but for now I'm just going to ignore you because there is nothing to respond to in what you said.

Thank you for claiming to me.

Unvote: Kdowns

Vote: OhGodMyLife

[HezLucky]

StrangerCoug is wrong about Nero Cain [not necessarily about him being scum - maybe they are part of different scum groups - but StrangerCoug's attack on him is shit]

The question is does that make him scum?

[StrangerCoug]

How is my attack on him shit? Leaking setup information that town does not know is a very strong indicator of scum and that's what I feel Nero Cain has done by saying it is a multiball. You may do my request for Nero Cain for him, but unless and until I get a statement from outside of the game made by neither Nero Cain nor me that says a multiball can consist of one Mafia team and a serial killer, my vote is not budging.

[Maxous]

vote drmyshottyizsik

baffled hes alive.

ZZZZZ lynch shotty please

So im still voting scum.

Benmage,do you have a game that you remember where you successfully got somebody lynched using this strategy?

[Maxous]

@NC: I mean backed off in that I stopped trying to convince you I'm not scum. At this point this seems like a pretty useless endeavor wouldn't you agree? You came off the scum read list for late day 2 play. Don't you have a scumread on FG?

Why demean my scumread on him then?

Can you point out

how

Nero is demeaning your scumread on FG?

Because I don't see it.
Also,

@Code: You know what I'm sick of you trying to push a quick lynch through today OK? Relax. We don't need to push through a lynch as quickly as possible. There's no reason to do so right now.

And I really want people to take a look at Fake God again. Tell me why he isn't scum. So yeah. I'm not gonna give up on this lynch yet. If you don't like this, well, go suck an egg.

As for Junpei, I don't like the way he responded anytime someone deigned to question his alignment. It was smug and overdefensive. Yes, if things don't go my way I'll probably meander over to that slot. No, I don't want to do that now, especially when we are getting a replacement that will hopefully confirm that vague thoughts about Junpei I have.

Code X asked you why you had'nt voted Junpei at all in the game despite him being your number 3 suspect.
Why did you write that first paragraph in response? It makes little sense in the context. He was'nt pushing for a speed lynch with that post.

Can you give example(s) of Junpei being smug and overdefensive? And explain why being smug is a scumtell?

[Maxous]

vote drmyshottyizsik

baffled hes alive.

Ehh, why would be surprised that he is alive?

2. I have read a decent chunk of the game but I get a headache when I try and go back and come up with a case.

On who?

Actually,

unvote, vote: kdowns

I don't think FG wagon is going anywhere..might as well get something going.

kdowns is an okay choice for lynch

An OKAY choice for a lynch? We've provided you with an excellent Junpei wagon (that you are BLATANTLY deflecting, mind you) and all you can do is sit here and vote someone because they are an "OKAY" choice for a lynch? What have you even done this game that suggests you shouldn't be hanged this instant?

What do you want me to do Hez?
I don't find Junpei scummy save for that one moment after KK's fake hammer.
I feel kdowns is a better choice and the only realistic alternative, hence my vote.

Gonna assume the last question is rhetorical.

You may do my request for Nero Cain for him, but unless and until I get a statement from outside of the game made by neither Nero Cain nor me that says a multiball can consist of one Mafia team and a serial killer, my vote is not budging.

For the record this is wrong, what other people define as multi-ball is irrelevant.

It's only important what Nero beleives the term refers to.

@Psyche:

Why don't you just read day 3 or something and give your opinion/reads and such?
You don't have to read the entire game to form an opinion.
And you been around enough to read a lot of late day2/day 3 posts right?

Give us a quick list of your impressions based on them.
I don't even care about backed up reasoning at this point.

For the record I skipped Mastin's stuff for the moment, I will get around to it tomorrow hopefully.

[Maxous]

Sticking with my vote. DV, maybe some day you'll be able to articulate what suddenly made you list me as apparently the scummiest player in the game, but for now I'm just going to ignore you because there is nothing to respond to in what you said.

Thank you for claiming to me.

Unvote: Kdowns

Vote: OhGodMyLife

Deas..why are you doing this again?

How do you expect this to get OMGL lynched? Can you elaborate please?

[DeasVail]

I don't expect it to get him lynched.

[Code_X]

Well what is the point then?

Seriously. This game.

[DeasVail]

That question was so obviously coming that I would have answered it beforehand if I planned to.

[DeasVail]

Oh yeah, and SC's accusation that only scum would assume it's multiball is not good.

[Maxous]

Meh, fine.
I don't see how OMGL's response is particulary scummy though.

@peregrine: can you please fix the quote on the first paragraph of post #2268?

~Fixed.