TM2012: White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 2.06

Llamarble (3) - Bub Bidderskins, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - Captain Falcon
Matias (1) - SocioPath
Nachomamma8 (1) - singersigner
singersigner (1) - Matias

Not Voting (4) - Benmage, Johhog, Llamarble, Nachomamma8

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

The deadline is Sunday, June 3, 2012, at 7:08 PM EDT (UTC-4).

Mod Notes

singersigner is V/LA until May 27.

[Captain Falcon]

Nope.jpg

I can see why you got Smooth Operator, holy shit.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Would that be scummy?

It can be. Not meaningfully so here.

Point is, sometimes Occam's razor applies.

Bayes' Theorem applies all the time though.

[Captain Falcon]

I hate math.

[Matias]

Did SocioPath regurgitate a read from mid Day 1 that is 100% outdated, using it as a vote for early to mid Day 2?

..Socio, do you really have nothing else to say about anyone else?

[Matias]

My read on Haddock/Falcon is straight up null at this point. That argument is completely outdated and it has no relevance for today.

[Matias]

Also, if that has anything to do with my lynching Amrun, remember that my vote on Amrun was not ideal in the slightest. It was just the only one I could compromise on, because like fuck was I going to lynch TSQ.

[Equinox]

Bub Bidderskins has been prodded.

Your moderator is a troll; carry on.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Bub Bidderskins has been prodded.

:looks at messages: Um, no I haven't.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Sorry about not posting. I've been following the game, but I don't really have much to say when my number 1 scumread right now is lurking. Do you hear that Llmarble? Get the fuck in here.

Also, socio's reads are total bullshit. He called two the consensus most townie players scumbuds. But to me, it almost seems like Socio's trying to make himself look townie by saying stuff that scum would "never" say. Like calling himself scummy. Like attacking two players with no votes on them. It really seems forced to me, but that's just a gut read

[Captain Falcon]

Opinion on Socio being less likely scum since Spy flipped scum?

[Bub Bidderskins]

It doesn't really affect my opinion. It's almost certain that at least one team got two or more scum role PMs. Along with other factors that might make me lean town on him, but so far that is the only thing going for socio-town.

[Zachrulez]

Basically just waiting for stuff to happen.

Can't talk about what Falcon brought up regarding CES, but this is me not moving my vote to CES.

[Nachomamma8]

I've found a patch of wifi in this godless place, and so I will be opening all pages of the game I have left to read and saving them for my ride back home. Meanwhile, I'm going to catchup in my other games right now so all I have to worry about is this game.

[Nachomamma8]

Regfan is sketchier than I remembered, but I agree with him about most things.

Well, this is strange. Comes out of nowhere, no followup, someone no one else had brought up before... Just feeling out the waters?

^Town unless Johhog's scum.
Scum don't randomly spike plausible mislynches often, and especially don't put in a bunch of meta effort to do so.

VOTE: VOTE: Amrun
Basically same reason as Regfan/Haddock.

And now all of a sudden he's calling Regfan town and sheeping her, as if he never had a bit of doubt in the first place. Seems a bit odd to comment on it if you're just going to cast it aside a moment later.

The exchange between Matias and Amrun from #409-#414 is ridiculously confusing. Matias says that the only problem his QT has with Amrun is the fact that she is overexplaining her town reads too much, but that's pretty much null because Amrun did that in another game. He also says that Llamarble is his biggest problem with the Amrun wagon, and then votes her. Then, Amrun points out that she was a cop with an innocent on SV in that game, and Matias unvotes, pushing all blame for the exchange on Rhinox. I don't like this for two reasons. 1) If the biggest evidence you have is proved null and you have a problem with someone who just voted on the wagon, shouldn't that warrant not voting the person? Then, when it's proven to be completely valid, you unvote? Why?

Right now, I'm really not feeling the Amrun wagon. It seems mainly based on an off-hand comment she made that doesn't really mean anything. I'd much prefer a Haddock or Johhog lynch.

This makes it seem like he ignored the Amrun wagon completely. I don't really know why he dismissed it so easily, but I can't really assign scum motive to it so I guess I'll just move on and leave it here for now.

Last two pages... urgh.

TSQ has posted on site approx 40 times since this game opened, just so everyone is aware... and Amrun's the leading wagon?

I would have liked this more if you didn't outright ignore the Amrun wagon. Certainly you know it's sort of difficult to get lurkers lynched on posting elsewhere when being absent from the thread, so why didn't you do more to push it?

Note: I'll be back to normal early D2.

I look forward to seeing this.

I've always appreciated the pure skill aspect of mountainous. See Zachs mountainous game.

It feels like too long since I've seen a good Ben post. It's been a bunch of back and forth with CES with CES occasionally doing other things, but Ben doing nothing.

CES vote from TSQ is unimpressive.

I can sum up the rest of his activity as basically challenging Regfan's scumreads, and then calling Amrun obvtown.

Hardly anything that screams at me to unvote. If nothing else, I want the pressure on him to remain so he doesn't just go and disappear for another week.

Cool story? You haven't exactly been posting much content lately.

I played with Benmage in Weather Mafia II (I *think* that's the only experience I've had with him) and he seemed to be just as loud and obnoxious as he is/has been here. Can you be more specific as to what feel "wrong"?

I wouldn't describe him as loud and obnoxious at all this game.

Why is that?

hey you are kind of being useless as fuck right now.

Looks like
...remainder actually.

In red?

If I put a town read in red, does that make it a scum read? No.
The fact you actually asked this question is ridiculous in a way that made me laugh.

Also, Johhog gets a few extra town points for bringing up Benmage's bullshit with not calling Shea scum, when he clearly did.

No, he didn't. There is a difference between a scumread and someone you don't have a townread on. A big difference, in fact.

socio since you're clearly town, can you vote CES or atleast give an opinion on him please.

mad trolling does not equal town. are you people afraid to attack him or something?

I like Bub's Zach vote.

LLamarble is an intelligent player. He is also a good player, touting an impressive win to loss ratio, and even going as far as listing himself an 8 or a 9 in terms of player skill. Although I can't find the thread, I remember his explanation of the reason vividly. Essentially, LLmarble's definition of a good player is the rate of turnaround when replacing into a slot. Turning a bad slot into a protown slot that lives to endgame is one of his primary criteria for viewing another player as "good".

Llmarble's cockiness is just the type of thing that would lead me to believe he chose scum again (given the option). However, that rests on the question - did he have the option? Given his play, I think so.

Llamarble is cocky, but so is everyone else on his team. Magna, Grey, and LLD, right? Unfortunately, I can't double-check it now since I don't have internet, but all 3 of those I consider more arrogant than Llamarble, and all are comfortable as scum. Even then, he's still pretty damn scummy to me at this point.

Uh, yes, I believe he's trolling you.

But why does trolling = town?

Honestly, given the amount of strong town reads I have I think there's a great chance of them both being mafia ignoring any connection between them. With that said my biggest worry is that I get NKed tonight to watch the town eat itself alive. I really cannot stress enough how confident I am in Bub/Matias/Captain and Johhog being town and to a slightly lesser extent to you, CES and Benmage. If I do die I want this reads section requoted over and over again.

I don't think that mafia would've killed Reg if any of the first 4 were scum, but that's just me.

Sorry, I am new to this site.

Three days until deadline, and Socio still has what feels like a throwaway vote on Johhog. This is terrible.

Is that why the only Open game on your wiki was one you replaced into? And even then it was hardly vanilla like this game? You chose this game ... an open game... over Closed Normal and Almost Normal, but you barely ever play in Opens?

You're also telling me that, given your proclaimed Town loss stagnation, that your team felt confident enough to give you a town game, reliant on the sole aspect of scumhunting, ignoring your above average winrate as scum?

I'd like to follow up on this when internet returns, but yeah. I find this extraordinarily strange.

After reading this post in context and his answer to my original question I feel like Socio is likely town.

FATE PULLED THE EXACT SAME THING LAST YEAR
THE SAME THING
"Oh yeah, this is different, I'm changing my ways and becoming calmer and blah, blah, blah."
People picked up on it, and so they called him scum. Then he reverted to old Fate, and people found it town. So, Socio will troll until people pressure him, and then he will be the old, active, awesome Socio and he doesn't even explain how he stayed alive so long. Fuck that.

I really don't want to reward TSQ's play/lack of play by allowing him to get any deeper in the game, especially when there's a really good chance that it's scum motivated on his part. (To all those arguments that it makes him town. Fuck you.) To me, that's a lot worse than lynching anyone else who's actually bothered to contribute reasonably today.

Vote TSQ in 2012!

You don't want to reward TSQ's lack of play by allowing him to get deeper in the game? Could you explain that, please?

Would take a Benmage or Llamarble lynch failing that. Any other wagon is a meh/avoid no lynch wagon.

oh hey this looks kind of familiar.
are you ces?

UNFORTUNATELY I am going to have to do this earlier than I would have liked, but ALAS this is the last chance I have to vote.

Unvote
Vote: Amrun

I don't care about anyone's cases are theories on Amrun, those are all fine and dandy, but here is the REAL KICKER:

It's magic! Socio, who doesn't do shit the whole game, magically shows up to help lynch Amrun!
No one bats an eye. No one flinches.
God, it would really suck if he was scum. But no one would believe that, would they?

I look forward to it.

I'm also curious as to why Amrun was the only person SocioPath bothered voting yesterday.

Oh thank god.

Feels like you're holding back, and I don't like it at all.

"feels like you're holding back"
what
what what what what what

UNVOTE:
VOTE: CES

yeah, why not bub? it surprising me a bit you shot for llama and ces instead of the guy who was your strongest read yesterday.

I find singer's push on shea very townie. Extending yourself out so far, putting so much into getting a lynch on a lurker slot... no. I seriously doubt it.

Because TSQ was lazy scum.

But you're right, we can see how Nacho plays. Knowing Nacho though, I'm expecting more of the same.

And when I end up actually doing something, will you actually make a case, or will you just sheep CES to the bitter, bitter end?

CES. Rectify this statement in terms of what your teammates have stated within the last 4 hours with relation to this specific tell.

My vote is now even more justified the fact that you can come to different conclusions regarding the same topic.

Oversoul, cut this shit out.

I wasn't bragging. I literally know nothing else as scum and it inevitably leads to me getting caught.

Well, that's interesting because I feel that you've been lurking a fair bit yourself this game while putting pressure on two specific lurkers (Benmage, TSQ), while ignoring the really, really obvious one (SOCIOPATH). Do you disagree with this?

I don't understand the point you're trying to make. He's basically called 5 people town-prob town, none of which included one of the most obviously town players in the game (in fact, he attacked him in his post).

If you're referring to Zach, I literally have no idea where you're getting that townread on him from. Everything about him screams LYNCH IT WITH FIRE.

As far as who is scummy, I think that Socio guy is scummy as hell.
He has lurked all game, and hasn't provided much content. (if ANY real content)
Hasn't been helpful at all, hasn't been cooperative with the town and clear townies out there.
Still alive D2 despite being on the returning champion's team with all the insight and knowledge that goes with that.
Has said ONE WORD today so far, which only looks to have been said to dodge prods.

I'm sure someone can come up with a better case for this guy.
I think a wagon on him would be very beneficial at this point to see where everyone stands and why.

Anyone who has called him town is scummy as hell, that is for sure.

BUT ENOUGH ABOUT THAT.

Wow, the first thing you've said that I actually agree with. Nice!

Did SocioPath regurgitate a read from mid Day 1 that is 100% outdated, using it as a vote for early to mid Day 2?

..Socio, do you really have nothing else to say about anyone else?

Yup.

Sorry about not posting. I've been following the game, but I don't really have much to say when my number 1 scumread right now is lurking. Do you hear that Llmarble? Get the fuck in here.

You know that thing about there being more than one scum that you mentioned before?
It still applies. Post.

So, right now, my two scumpicks are Socio and Zach. Socio is scummy as fuck for intentionally lurking his way through the game for ALL of Day 1, and only starting now. Add to that the opportunistic L-1 vote onto Amrun, and I'm feeling pretty good about myself. I also think it's important to note that no one had a scumread on Socio yesterday. Absolutely no one. Town ignores him because he did really good last year and they're hoping for a replay, and scum ignores them because he's their best buddy. If he's town, congrats, he's gained another day, but if that were the case, he could have given the BARE MINIMUM yesterday, and nudged the town in subtle ways that almost certainly wouldn't have gotten him nightkilled.

Zach, on the other hand, has been living in CES's shadow the entire game. However, he doesn't have the no-case, push push push playstyle that CES does, and I really, really find it difficult to believe that his and CES's opinions haven't strayed a bit from one another the entire game. Contrast this with singer, who might agree with CES on a lot, still somewhat suspects him, and took a special interest in getting the TSQ lynch. Zach, none of that. Add to that the self-given meta about him liking town more than scum ("even more than singer does!") is suspicious as fuck. I think that he took scum for WIFOM purposes, so he wanted to make damn sure everyone knew about his preference. Then, let's actually look at what he's done. Tried to lynch TSQ for lurking, and tried to lynch Benmage because he feels like he's holding back. While doing nothing himself. And while ignoring Socio who is clearly and obviously holding back and lurking and not giving a fuck about lynching scum in the least bit.

Singer, Matias, CES, and Captain Oversoul are still town all the way.
Ben is still probably town, but I want the dragon to wake up pretty soon.
Bub and Johhog and Llamarble need to post more.
Bub or Llamarble would be backup scum, but it doesn't matter quite yet.

For now,

Vote: Zachrulez

Zach's the stronger read for now, but I'm sure once the elusive "try hard socio" appears and actually responds to my posts, I'll have a lot more to say about that.

[Matias]

Posting but this is a prod dodge, im in pittsburg and blahggguh

[singersigner]

Adjusting sleep schedule. -_- Asked team about Socio's post/vote.

[Johhog]

I have a bad gut feeling of the Llamarble wagon and I think it might be scum driven (I think the case is weak and there was no wagon yesterday).

I'll also ask yet again why SocioPath isn't scum, because to me his lurking was ten times worse than TSQ's lurking but despite this TSQ was the only one to get called out for it.

[Nachomamma8]

I'll also ask yet again why SocioPath isn't scum, because to me his lurking was ten times worse than TSQ's lurking but despite this TSQ was the only one to get called out for it.

What do you think of Zach?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Nacho, do you really think they'd kill Regfan if both Llamarble and you were town?

[Nachomamma8]

Yes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

TownmisguidedRegfan can be very useful to have around for the scums, so why wouldn't they take advantage of that?

And I forgot to add "P.S. Zach is town." to my previous post.

[Nachomamma8]

If Regfan had 6 strong correct townreads, then he would defend him. Killing him gets suspicion thrown on me and llamarble, and it means that scum can safely push people in that pool of 6 without getting too much shit for it.

see: Sociopath.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Regfan having 6 strong correct town reads and his 3 top scum reads all being wrong would be one heck of a coincidence.

And if I weren't pushing it, there'd be no extra suspicion thrown on 'marble and you (and people are ignoring me when it comes to that too). Let's not pretend otherwise.

[Equinox]

Llamarble has been prodded.