Mini 1336 - Revolution Mafia Game Over!

[Voidedmafia]

Oh, I'd only be lucky then. I don't think I've actually done that kind of thing before, so I was partially just indulging Fate because I know he has. Yay?

You and Llamafluff/RD have that buddying=town problem. Must be because you both have Llama in your names (or her original).

[vijay2vasandani]

Oh hai CES

[BBmolla]

Fuck yes CES who else is scum

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

TML/voided

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

This. Actually, mathematically speaking, you can

never

identify two people as being different alignments more strongly than you can identify one of their alignments on its own. For instance, say that you're 70% sure that X is town and 60% sure that Y is scum. Then the probability that they have differing alignments is (.7*.6)+(.4*.3) = 54%. More than that, it's logically provable that there are no "they have different alignments" tells (that is, there's no reliable way to say 'i'm X% sure that these two players have different alignments' without saying how likely you think each of them are to be each alignment. Basically, scumhunting ought to start on the individual scale.

I can't ignore this.

You're wrong and your reasoning is circular. The joint distribution of alignments is not fully determined by the distribution of individual alignments and there's no reason why the odds of X being town and Y being scum would be .7*.6 (and the only way to justify it would be to suppose that scumhunting is based on the individual level and "thus" conclude that those events are independent). Think e.g. of a counterclaim in an open - in that case you know there's exactly one scum among the two claimants but you may well only be around 50% sure either is scum.

(I put "thus" in quotes because although it's a decent approximation, it's not actually true that those events will be independent in any reasonable situation because there's a fixed amount of scum and that means X being scum is generally negatively correlated with Y being scum. I'm fairly sure the actual calculation is somewhat tricksy.)

[Llamarble]

Yeah maybe voided is scum.
That would make sense.

What do you think of Kanye though?

[Voidedmafia]

Yeah maybe voided is scum.
That would make sense.

What do you think of Kanye though?

Make up your mind about me -_-.

You took the time to explain how TML was town and that I haven't changed that (in funny comparison to Vijay saying TML is scum and I haven't changed that which I find to be complete bull), and that my spat with Fate was at least somewhat townie, yet as soon as CES says I'm the 2nd man you're all, "oh hey yeah, this guy may be right, maybe Voided is scum, coolio."

Dude.

[implosion]

@CES: bah whatever. I think the point that I was making (but couldn't think of a good way to express without math at the time) is that S-T pairs don't really give tells as being S-T pairs on day one. Yeah, a counterclaim is enough to identify a pair as being opposite alignments, but I don't think that any tells that occur solely through regular play are enough to identify a pair of people as SvT without identifying which is which. Scumhunting isn't only on the individual level, but having gut feel that two people are different alignments without any concrete reasoning isn't valid. I do understand the need to point out bad math, though.

It isn't really relevant anymore anyway, since i've basically written off Vijay as town.

I like CES's scumreads.

[implosion]

Maybe I'm susceptible to buddying but that's because usually people who do so are town.

I've been doing this to you all game

[Llamarble]

KanyeKnowsBest -Llamarble, VoidedMafia, MattP, bbmolla, implosion,
This is a pretty good wagon though, particularly with Kuribo on it.
I'm starting to like Implosion more. "I've been buddying you the whole game why don't you like me" feels town to me.

[Llamarble]

Yeah maybe voided is scum.
That would make sense.

What do you think of Kanye though?

Make up your mind about me -_-.

You took the time to explain how TML was town and that I haven't changed that (in funny comparison to Vijay saying TML is scum and I haven't changed that which I find to be complete bull), and that my spat with Fate was at least somewhat townie, yet as soon as CES says I'm the 2nd man you're all, "oh hey yeah, this guy may be right, maybe Voided is scum, coolio."

Dude.

CES showing up and calling me town / you scum definitely shook the confirmation bias.

[Llamarble]

VoidedMafia:

Haschel Cedricson, MattP, implosion, Elmo TeH AzN, vijay2vasandani

vijay2vasandani:

bbmolla, VoidedMafia

Implosion:

Llamarble, spyrex

Llamarble:

kuribo, fate

MattP:

Darox

kuribo:

implosion

Fate:

Llamarble, kanyeknowsbest,

BBMolla:

Darox:

Elmo TeH AzN:

Not Voting:

The fact that we managed to get from here to an Elmo lynch, with most of the people on Voided's wagon looking pretty decent right now, is also not a good sign for voided.

[Voidedmafia]

I have no idea what 910 is supposed to be saying. Please elaborate.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What do you think of Kanye though?

So far, my impression of kanye has mostly been that he's somewhat under the radar but that's sort of hard to tell when you're specifically paying attention to him.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Spyrex is kind of giving me some of the same disgustinggutscumvibes that he gave me in the only other game i've played with him (in which he was scum). Can't pinpoint it. Other game, I could. He might have just been readable as a fluke in that game. Looked at random towngame (league mafia) of his, don't get the same gut ping, but that might be bias. Shmr. Dunno.

^townie (especially with the "shmr")

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fate is probably town. Opinion.

No role information there.

Vote: Fate

[vijay2vasandani]

Mmmm *frustration* come on CES. Let's lynch VM first.

Also, VM how can you confidently say that my statement that you haven't changed my read on that slot is bullshit?

[Llamarble]

Hey Kanye, you could really help yourself out by explaining your thought processes behind the things I described in 887-889.
I don't want to lynch you if you're town.

[Fate]

I don't understand CES. Have you really become incapable of reading me afte rall this time? My play hasn't changed. And even if it has the underlying personality hasn't.

Thats

uh

no

Vote: CES

I won't accept it.

[MattP]

You don't think CES as scum would follow his town meta and "read you correctly as he always does"?

[Fate]

There's no reason to when I literally have no credit in this game. The fact that I didn't get in on the mission over others in itself is absurd.

CES scum can go for my (popular) lynch and not take a single bit of heat even if I go down screaming "CES CNA READ ME WHEN IMT OWN"

[MattP]

Ok fair

[Voidedmafia]

Mmmm *frustration* come on CES. Let's lynch VM first.

Also, VM how can you confidently say that my statement that you haven't changed my read on that slot is bullshit?

Because it's simply impossible for you to be able to sit on that read after all this and still be able to act like nothing's changed your mind.

I don't buy it.

And Marble, seriously, explain 910.

[Llamarble]

I didn't want you to be scum because I called you town earlier and Fate was calling you scum, so I was confirmation biasing somewhat.
But then CES showed up and didn't sound horribly evil and called you scum, which shook me out of that and I reread and found you possiblescum.

I'm still pretty happy lynching Kanye though, since neither Fate nor CES seem to want that lynch and there's probably a scum in that pair.

[Voidedmafia]

...That's passable, at least.