Open 421-Pamplona II: Electric Bullgaloo! Game over

[inte]

i trust RBD, but mostly because shes a far better player than i am

she doesn't appear scum, i was asking if she always looks town to people

[Bitmap]

What do you think of the mass-claim and the hypo-hide idea though?

[JohnnyFarrar]

Dashie's decently complex. She's good enough that I wouldn't want to lynch her day one, but we'll see. Something isn't right about her play thus far. She seems to be focusing on the whole massclaim thing which won't even happen until tomorrow.

[Bitmap]

Dashie's decently complex. She's good enough that I wouldn't want to lynch her day one, but we'll see. Something isn't right about her play thus far. She seems to be focusing on the whole massclaim thing which won't even happen until tomorrow.

Do you think we should proceed with the mass-claim? I've been thinking about it and imagine we have around 3-4 PRs for town. We would lose ALL our PRs in the next 2 days.

Ugh, I'm really bad at statistics and there are too many random variables. I'm bad at combinations and stuff like that.

[inte]

they can't possibly have more than two kills, and one of them being one-shot

[Bitmap]

they can't possibly have more than two kills, and one of them being one-shot

Yes, which is why 4/2 = 2, hence the notion that we lose our PRs in 2 days.

[inte]

i wonder if its viable for the jk/doc to not claim and have them swim in the VT's

[Bitmap]

i wonder if its viable for the jk/doc to not claim and have them swim in the VT's

We might not have a jk, doc, and/or cop.

[inte]

its also possible to have no power roles, right?

[Rainbowdash]

RBD, do you always appear town, even as scum?

Yes. Usually I appear more town as scum for some reason.

Dashie's decently complex. She's good enough that I wouldn't want to lynch her day one, but we'll see. Something isn't right about her play thus far. She seems to be focusing on the whole massclaim thing which won't even happen until tomorrow.

Given that I lost a C9++ because the players screwed up everything I said after I got killed N1 that cost us a really easy win, im not going to risk that happening again. Even if I have to beat everything into the ground first.

I will get responses to bit up later.

So just to clarify with the massclaim, the higher tier (as in the roles only possible with multiple letters) claim first, and then the lower tier claim second?

Correct. Mass popcorn tier level first. Then comes mass roleclaim of T2 (popcorn) and then T1.

[Rainbowdash]

Odds as they have been requested

0 or 7 PRs = 0.8% (1/125)
1 or 6 PRs = 5.4% (1/19)
2 or 5 PRs = 16.4% (1/6)
3 or 4 PRs = 27.3% (1/4)

So odds are we have 2-5 PRs

@Bit - Why are you still calling him a mislynch? This is the first time in the entire game that you have called anypony who is not you a mislynch apart from a couple general uses of the term. You also are really not giving me a stance on him. You called him null/scum, then when im not pushing you are really backing down on that stance even. If you had to guess right now - scum or town and why?

@DJD - If you dislike Bit these last few pages, why did you avoid commenting on it until prompted?

[Bitmap]

@Bit - Why are you still calling him a mislynch? This is the first time in the entire game that you have called anypony who is not you a mislynch apart from a couple general uses of the term. You also are really not giving me a stance on him. You called him null/scum, then when im not pushing you are really backing down on that stance even. If you had to guess right now - scum or town and why?

If I was to take a real stance even due to how non-frequently he's been posting, I'd say scum. He's been bandwagoning and generally not helping town. He hasn't been giving feedback of other players and claiming both grey and I as scum with no real reasoning.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I've read up on the setup a bit and now understand the massclaim, and I'm fine with it. We should make the most suspicious guys claim first though.

[RachMarie]

@ Dashie

Could you explain a little more why a mass claim? I have mainly been in Newbie games with a few Open games under my belt and those setups in general a mass claim is a bad idea.


To all sorry I have been so lacking on posts it has been a rough couple of weeks.

[Greywing]

Hi Rach! I'd like to see some reads, or at minimum, a deadline for when you'll have them.

@Grey - Lurking outside of a select few players is indicative of alignment. That and I have a gut town read going on RM at this point. What are your thoughts on all the other plentafull lurkers in this game.

Well, I think they need to be beaten repeatedly.

Seriously though, McStab's vote hopping like crazy. It's strange, but not really a huge scum-tell in my opinion.
JD's leaning scum.
BK's leaning Town.
I'm conflicted on Uber. His read post read Town to me. Unfortunately, everything else has been fluff or "gonna post reads guys!" Not sure what to think of him yet.

Stance time. Everypony needs to say what they think of Near in their next post. That wagon has been hanging around for a bit but never has gone anywhere and its time to find out why.

Because DLG's the only one who firmly believes in it right now.

I'm sorry, but I'm of little use on this one here. I'm not seeing what's so scummy about him as of yet. He hasn't really done enough to allow me to formulate an opinion. I am, however, getting scum vibes from people that are trying to subtly push his wagon without actually committing to it.

I agree with greywing here. UNVOTE: VOTE: rachmarie. hes been posting in many threads, and just ignored this one during the rbd vs me thing.

Something new and exciting happened in the thread, better chill out till the waters get calm.

Umm...what?

I've read up on the setup a bit and now understand the massclaim, and I'm fine with it. We should make the most suspicious guys claim first though.

Dash, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe making the most suspicious people claim first kills the point. We're trying to claim by least likely role to the most likely role.

Hypothetical example: A Vigilante is only in play if there are three "T" roles. We'd start by asking if a Vig role exists. Say that Bob claims that he's the Vig. We would then go through the rest of the players, asking them to claim. If there ends up only being two "T" roles in the rest of the playerlist, then Bob is lying, and we lynch him.

@MOD: I'm going to be V/LA starting Monday, July 23rd until Saturday, July 28th. I might still be able to post, but just want to make sure in the off-chance I can't.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok... yes im going to get way into theory here but im just going to spoiler this. Not going to lose two of these games because I die N1 and no pony understands the theory behind a massclaim and how to go about it

Spoiler:

There are seven players in this game

Code: Select all

Red
Orange
Yellow
Blue
Green
Purple
White

We start with a tier massclaim and get the following

Code: Select all

Red - T1
Orange - VT
Yellow - VT
Blue - T2
Green - T2
Purple - T1
White - T1

Now we have the T2 players, Blue and Green claim. It now looks like

Code: Select all

Red - T1
Orange - VT
Yellow - VT
Blue - T2 - Doctor
Green - T2 - Commuter
Purple - T1
White - T1

Now come the T1 claims (scummiest first -> popcorn)

Code: Select all

Red - T1 - Jailkeeper
Orange - VT
Yellow - VT
Blue - T2 - Doctor
Green - T2 - Commuter
Purple - T1 - Jailkeeper
White - T1 - Vengeful

At this point we look at the setup for what can and cant be true. Green has to be lying and is scum, since there is no hider. Purple and Red cannot both be the Jailkeeper, so one is lying.

Thats how we massclaim and what we need to be looking for in the results. Other stuff im going to stay silent on but if im dead go through everything with the WIKI PULLED UP and do fesability checks after every flip.

Questions? No?

In that case I think we lynch Bit who may have scumslipped that Near is town with the calling him a mislynch out of nowhere. It reminds me just a little of something I caught dramonic doing with a terminology thing in a multiball game a long time ago. He had been calling anti-town groups "scum" the entire game, but then suddenly called somepony 'mafia' with zero prompting of it, just in a single post I believe. This was dramonic knowing the player could only be mafia as he was wolf. Its a terminology slip as scum where they say something they know to be true and have been working with it the entire game but its something town cant possibly know.

When you consider that Bit continues to call Near scum, the one time calling them a mislynch makes me think that they are scum without Near and made a post without realizing what they are saying.

Either way I think Bit needs a whole lot of pressure since they are really all over the place with what they think of Near in not only what they are calling him but also the stance on him.

Tomorrow massclaim is required. A hider death guilty is probably the only situation I would recommend waiting on one.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Thanks for that Dash, I'll be sure to check back on it D2 if I'm still here.

I'll not be part of the Bit wagon.

[Near]

Sorry guys, I will participate more! Reading!

[Near]

Dashie's idea of claiming is interesting. Can we plan for mass claiming exactly at the same time. At least, within a couple of minutes so that scums do not have the chance to add up claims to figure out optimal claim.

For example, Dashie, in your above example, if the second player to claim JailKeeper is actually scum, he could simply claim Hider to protect his buddy. You do make a point to say that scummy players should claim first, but scummy often doesn't equal scums.

So how about it. We set a time that we (at least most of us) are available, calibrate our clocks, and check in by posting our check in posts (like 5 minutes before claim time), and we submit our roles at once.

[Near]

And even if many of us are from different time zone, this shouldn't take more than 5 minutes of our time, so there shouldn't be too many excuses. And as long as we could get like 8 or so people to agree, this should be worth it. And people who cannot not make it to THE CLAIM TIME have to claim first - VT, T1 or T2 but not full claim unless you are T2.

[JohnnyFarrar]

That sounds complicated and can be thought about later. Reads?

[Near]

RBD is probably town? Because he proposed mass claim, and I don't think scums are likely to propose mass claim. Although now thinking about it, mass claim may not be a good idea, even if we all claim at once.

Most important advantage of mass claiming for town is being able to reduce the number of players in the pool to choose the scum from. Mass claiming in this set up does not do a good job in this respect. Suppose N number of players claim power. Not only we don't know how many scums exist in this game (can range from 2-4 including SK), but even if we knew, we won't know how many from scum claimed VT and how many claimed power. One simple scum strategy of 3 people scum team could be that 1 scum claims tracker and other 2 claim VT. We still don't know how many scums belong to the VT pool vs. PR pool.

This are various easy strategies for scum because claiming tracker, doctor, gunsmith or even vigilante (even if we request vig to target a certain player who claimed vanilla, with possible presence of JOAT and bus driver, we would not know vigilante failing to make the vig kill is scum or town being blocked or bus-driven) makes it very unlikely for them to be caught. Given the following assignment rules:

Investigation Roles
I = Tracker
II = Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker
III = Tracker, Tracker
IIII = Tracker, Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker
IIIII = Tracker, Tracker, Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker

Scum claiming tracker would give information to town only if number of

I

's drawn happened to be 5 or greater. And even if 5 or more I's were drawn, we still have to choose one scum out of 4 total trackers who claimed.

If you look at the power assignments for doctor, vigilante, and gunsmith, it should be clear that scum can safely choose from any one of these roles also.

The second advantage of mass claiming should be allowing the town to generate a list of confirmed townies. Mass claiming in this set up does slightly a better job at this, because assuming scums would safely choose tracker, doctor, vigilante, and gunsmith, we can

probably

assume that anyone claiming jailkeeper, hider, rolecop, or vengeful are confirmed town. Still, this allows us to have maximum of 4 confirmed townies, but probably fewer in reality because we may not have any power roles in one or more categories. And even if we do have a power role in each category, if we have total of one role in each of killing and protection category, our power roles may happen to be doctor or vigilante - which would not allow us to confirm them as townies.

Fixed tag. ~~NS

[Near]

yeeaaahhh

VOTE: Uber

Uhh why?

The town thing to do would be replacing out. The scum thing to do is claim you're reading for four days. My vote moves when I see something useful out of that slot.

I never actually liked voting someone for the sole reason that they are lurking and Uber could just be refusing to replace because he hasn't really done anything yet. I'd admit he did try to give us some reads a bit earlier and I'm waiting to hear the rest of his reads. We have time, no need to rush this.

Doesn't this sound scummy? Tries to fit-in as town as if he was contributing something useful though not contributing anything of value.

His mentioning of his grades in English classes as an excuse. He is overly focused in defending himself, and he calls it "self-assessing myself as a player"...

Being unsure about claiming though sounds town. Or maybe he's inexperienced scum unable to hold his fear of having to claim.

[Near]

I just noticed that my suspicion regarding "Uhh why?" has been brought up by JD already, in similar words.

Either way, it is more suspicious because after JF voted for UBER, people were talking about wanting UBER replaced. Then Bitmap ignores this discussion and has to show off how townie oriented he is.

[JohnnyFarrar]

RBD is probably town?

Doesn't this sound scummy?

Are you asking questions? These aren't very strong stances.