Open 421-Pamplona II: Electric Bullgaloo! Game over

[drmyshotgun]

So all VT claimers.
Do you admit that you are the most likely candidate for DJD to hide behind?

[Rainbowdash]

So all VT claimers.
Do you admit that you are the most likely candidate for DJD to hide behind?

No... im fully confident he didnt hide behind me due to the him being dead thing.

I think he did go with his inital plan of randomly hiding when thats what he said he was going to do. All it proves is that there is at least one scum in VT pool. Even if you are going to aruge that he picked non-randomly, why didnt he hide behind RM because she was a mislynch that he thought was town? Inte suggested he hide there too before he did.

Anything is pure speculation, if that is going to be your case let me know so I can just ignore it and get scum lynched.

[drmyshotgun]

Confirming Rach would be sort of, you know, ahem, err, umm, useless for us?

[drmyshotgun]

I also said: Likely candidate. Doesn't necessarily mean that he indeed did hide behind you.

[DLG]

UNVOTE: BK201
I need to reassess, and maybe have my head examined.

[Bitmap]

UNVOTE: BK201

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.03

Rainbowdash - 2 - drmyshotgun, JohnnyFarrar
Bitmap - 1 - Greywing
DLG - 1 - UberNinja
UberNinja - 1 - BK201

Not Voting: Rainbowdash, RachMarie, Near, DLG, Bitmap

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2012-08-20 01:16:26)

[JohnnyFarrar]

So looking back over DJD's posts, I think I'll VOTE: greywing for obvious reasons. There's basically a fifty-fifty shot of hitting scum in the VTs, so killing the one that our dead hider said he would hide behind seems like an easy choice

[Rainbowdash]

Gah!

See I think RM is town. That unvote from DGL there actually looks really town too. That would leave a really bizzare group of UN-BK-Grey though which just leaves me scratching my head wondering what im reading wrong in this situation because UN-BK just doesnt seem right, even for an agressive player like UN which tends to be the type that busses more often.

@DMS - Confirming anypony would have been a good idea. As hider (sure its slanted because I know im town) I would have hid behind RM or BK because they were potential mislynches and confirming them as town would have prevented their lynches.

[drmyshotgun]

Confirming you would have been the BEST idea.

[UberNinja]

Unvote

for now...

[JohnnyFarrar]

And even in your calculations you agree that grey is scum Dashie? If so, lets get rid of him!

[Rainbowdash]

Confirming you would have been the BEST idea.

Well it would have been better than whatever we did because we wouldnt be having this arguement about what he might of or should have done that I cant do anything with than fight speculation with speculation and just gets me annoyed.

And even in your calculations you agree that grey is scum Dashie? If so, lets get rid of him!

I want to read more first and have that discussion with UN. There was a gut town read on him early from me so I need to go back. Either way something is just wrong with my reads and im probably reading a scum as town given where im at. While a "kill all the non-town" reads may be an interesting approach, I dont think its the right one since a mislynch can put us in an ugly tomorrow.

@UN - I should be fairly free tomorrow, is there any point you should have an hour or so semi-availabilty?

[UberNinja]

I'm free off and on; I can't guarantee anything, and if you want to have a rapid-fire discussion with me, just get on as often as possible and post as much as possible.

This day isn't going to last forever. And I'm not anywhere near convinced of your alignment either way.

[Rainbowdash]

Im heading off for a while right now... but tomorrow from 1-5 or so your time I should be flying around the forums. I dont want to spam post but if I see you post anywhere on site I will make myself known.

Conversation should be able to prove im town, but im just looking to figure out where I at least need to start. I do want to know why you think one scum in the doc claims though.

[UberNinja]

I'm here right now, and should be able to talk off and on for the next while. Let's do this.

[drmyshotgun]

What are we talking about?

[Greywing]

UNVOTE: Bitmap

Apparently, the consensus is that we're not going to lynch a claimed doctor today. I suppose Bit can live one more day.

I still think we have two scum in the VT's: Rach, and either Uber or BK. I don't see why people are getting Town reads on Rach. Can someone explain them to me as I'm seeing pretty obvious scum here.

[Bitmap]

UNVOTE: Bitmap

Apparently, the consensus is that we're not going to lynch a claimed doctor today. I suppose Bit can live one more day.

I still think we have two scum in the VT's: Rach, and either Uber or BK. I don't see why people are getting Town reads on Rach. Can someone explain them to me as I'm seeing pretty obvious scum here.

Scary thing is that I agree with you on the Rach read. She does seem pretty scummy and I just finished a game with her while she was Mafia Rolecop.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=22548

She was playing a lot of other games at that time and not paying attention to the newbie game we were in and she said that her other games had closer deadlines when our game only had a day before Day 1 ended. She's sorta doing the exact same thing here.

@DMS: RBD vs Uber fist fight

[UberNinja]

Alright. Setup breakage time? Let's see.

I am 90% confident that JohnnyFarrar is town via pure probability.
I am 90% confident that Bitmap is town via... certain other things.

Now, we have 3 living doctors. Tonight, no matter who is lynched, they should all protect someone of their own choosing. Claiming who they're going to protect is BEYOND retarded. Whoever EVER suggested that they claim their targets beforehand is ridiculously stupid, or, scum.

Who was it?

Was it RBD?


Anyway, the people left alive that I haven't crossed off the to-lynch list yet are:
BK201
DLG
drmyshotgun
Greywing
Rainbowdash
Near
Rachmarie

Now, we do have a lot of power role claims. We're down 3 already, and we have 3 more claimed still alive.

Imo this game is either full of good scum, or full of bad and lucky scum. And this game feels too well handled so far to be a bunch of bad scum. Bitmap is clearly not scum. And he doesn't look that lucky either, what with his claimed doc target being killed. That makes me think the scum were trying to set him up to take the fall today because "hey one of the docs has to be scum, right? hurr durr vote Bitmap". No. Not happening.

Next point of business is to figure out why DLG isn't confirmed town, and what it would take to confirm him as town.

Well, it'd take a lot to confirm him as town. He's not confirmed town. Here are ways he could be scum.

A. JF is scum and is lying (this SEVERELY cuts down on who could be scum).
B. Scum could have gotten only 2 T's (not too hard to believe with the SIX power roles we've seen so far), and could have ninja-killed scum-DLG while bus driving him with McStab or something. Two birds in one stone; they nearly confirm DLG via JF's JK claim, and they implicate Bitmap as a liar.
C. Both A and B.
D. Probably other stuff too.

So my hypothesis is that EITHER we have a scum team like BK, Near, and VT-X, OR, that somebody smarter like RBD, DLG, and JohnnyFarrar are scum. Which means scum probably orchestrated or heavily utilized the scum claim in some way, no matter which hypothetical team it is.

I'm still trying to figure out which of the combos is more likely.

More later.

[Bitmap]

Alright. Setup breakage time? Let's see.

I am 90% confident that JohnnyFarrar is town via pure probability.
I am 90% confident that Bitmap is town via... certain other things.

Now, we have 3 living doctors. Tonight, no matter who is lynched, they should all protect someone of their own choosing. Claiming who they're going to protect is BEYOND retarded. Whoever EVER suggested that they claim their targets beforehand is ridiculously stupid, or, scum.

Who was it?

Was it RBD?

I wasn't sure who to protect so I asked RBD that day.

@RBD: Who do you want the docs to protect tonight?

I would say doctor claims on MS (Bit and Near) and JF (DMS). MS is massive threat if he is town. JF becomes more of a threat as the game progresses. Split is so most likely to be real doc (near) is on most valuable role.

What do you think of inte?

Near ditched MS and protected JF with DMS.

[UberNinja]

McStab is a massive threat if town? wtf?

[drmyshotgun]

I think it means for the Scums.

[Rainbowdash]

@UN/Bit - N1 really didnt matter who did what since strongman kill existed. I just hoped that by leaving all doctors open scum would leave JF/MS alone and go for one of them instead. Strongman typically breaks any doctor/JK actions so there was no way to prevent a scum kill of thier choosing, baiting them into a suboptimal one was the best bet. Tonight obviously doctors and JF should not be saying who they are targeting.

@UN - Yes MS would have been massive threat to scum because of the setup. There is a goon and two other roled scum players, he hits roled scum in fakeclaims or VT and they are confirmed. He target town in PRs and they are confirmed. He targets VT and they are essentially confirmed. He basically was a cop and if the goon claimed VT, they were a pseudo-GF. Have to dash off again, but tomorrow like I said, should be around for all of the early afternoon. Flag me down sometime then.

[Greywing]

So, just did some setup analysis for those of us who aren't entirely sure of what's going on .

These letters definitely were drawn during setup:
I (Inte.)
H (JD.)
R (McStab.)
PPP (Johnny, and two of Near/Gunny/Bit...most likely the first two.)

That leaves one letter which is either another P (if none of our PRs are lying) or a T (if one of the docs are lying.) That leaves us with one of two scum setups:

1 T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

The JOAT has a Roleblock, Ninja Kill and a Strongman Kill. Assuming again that Bit's telling the truth and that he protected McStab, the Strongman Kill is probably used up. McStab was most likely scum's #1 priority, and I can't see them using the Roleblock on Bit as it ran the risk of another Doc thwarting the kill. So, they still have Roleblock, Ninja Kill, and the Bus Driver on the table.