History Mafia Mini Theme - 1358 Game Over!

[MattP]

Msh is just trying to look like he is doing something. We will have him shot tonight no problem

[Staeg]

Okay, so here's my theory. Matt's gunsmith is not your average gunsmith - it is, instead, a flavor-cop of sorts.

Matt, try asking the mod if this is so.

[MattP]

My role pm explicitly states I detect people with guns. Very straightforward.

[DeasVail]

@DV: sorry for that, it's difficult to be clear and concise if the subject matter is complex.

the shortest summary I can think of:

Given that CO killed Amrun, and given what MattP claimed:

• CO being SK would imply an unbalanced setup
  
• CO being odd night vig makes Matt's gunsmith pointless
  
• CO being mafia would mean a reasonably balanced setup, without outrageous implications.

So CO is almost certainly mafia.

Oh sorry! I didn't mean your post. I thought Jarvis was referring to mine.

[Jarvis]

I was referring to Michel's.

Cooommmee ooooonnnn Staaaeeeeg

[MichelSableheart]

I still don't see how CO being SK must necessarily result in an imbalanced setup, especially if the gunsmith power is one-shot.

Assume that CO is SK. Now compare the chance that CO SK would be found out by a powerrole to the chance that McStab or the Quilford/Iceguy killer (who is mafia if CO is SK) would be found out by a powerrole.

CO, as SK, can be found out if:

• the tracker targets him, or
  
• the one shot gunsmith targets him

McStab (or the Quilford/Iceguy killer), can be found out if:

• the tracker targets him when he makes the kill, or
  
• the two shot gendercop targets him and realizes that female -> scum

The extra shot of the gendercop is almost completely negated by the chance that a different member of mafia made the kill when targetted by the tracker. Which means both would virtually equally vulnerable to powerroles. Which is significantly unbalanced, because the SK immediately loses if he is lynched, whereas the mafiamember has buddies to pick up for him.

[MichelSableheart]

@Jarvis: who will shoot CO if he's lying?

[MichelSableheart]

Or more importantly, who will shoot CO if he is a mafiamember who killed Amrun night 1 and was blocked by MattP night 2?

[Staeg]

Alright, I'm decided. Lynch DV. Shoot, uhh... jesus fuck. MSH, I guess. I'm not expecting both of me/matt to live till tomorrow, but welp. If neither of DV and MSH are scum or if MSH doesn't die overnight, lynch CO. Probably lynch CO either way, but that's to be decided.

Everyone ok with this plan?

[MattP]

Yep yep

[MattP]

Think about this a scenario

Msh is SK and killed Quilford and iceguy. Chaos is scum and killed amrun. Msh knows co is therefore scum and is therefore tunneling the fuck out of him because he had this information.

[MichelSableheart]

@Staeg: I'm not happy with it, but it's not looking like I'm getting enough support for a CO lynch. I can tell already that DV won't be happy with it either. OTOH, Jarvis expressed being waiting to hammer, so a majority is in favour.

@Matt: if you actually thought about the role info you have available, you would realize that there's more then enough to determine that CO is mafia. I don't need extra info for that.

[DeasVail]

Hmmm, I'm thinking a CO lynch is better than a DV one.

[MattP]

Yeah yeah

VOTE: co

[Staeg]

...?

[MattP]

CO is lying scum or my gunsmith is literally useless

[DeasVail]

So is there no chance of a Shamrock lynch at all?

[Nexus]

'World history is tragic.' - Friedrich Durrenmatt

Votecount 3.3:

DeasVail (2): ChaosOmega, Shamrock
ChaosOmega (2): MichelSableheart, MattP
Shamrock (1): DeasVail
MichelSableheart (1): Jarvis

Not voting (2): Bitmap, Staeg

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at 8am on August 28th 2012.

ChaosOmega has been prodded.

Bitmap is v/la until today.

[ChaosOmega]

Your 1-shot gunsmith could just have been put in as negative utility. I forgot to post here, but conversation has stalled, and we only have a few days until deadline.

Think about it this way, though. I'm either an odd-night vig, mafia, or SK. If I don't listen to the town and kill MSH, I get strung up the next day. That's good for town if I'm mafia, and if I was SK and don't kill who I'm directed to, I'm definitely dead the next day, which means my only chance of winning would be to kill MSH. You guys can string me up if you want, but you're getting a second town-directed kill regardless of my alignment at this point.

[Jarvis]

Ehhh fact is three out of DV/CO/Michel/Shamrock are scum of some sort anyway so there's not really a massive deal. Whatever if we must play it safe.

I'll hammer whichever of those gets to L-1 first.

[Staeg]

Think about it this way, though. I'm either an odd-night vig, mafia, or SK. If I don't listen to the town and kill MSH, I get strung up the next day. That's good for town if I'm mafia, and if I was SK and don't kill who I'm directed to, I'm definitely dead the next day, which means my only chance of winning would be to kill MSH. You guys can string me up if you want, but you're getting a second town-directed kill regardless of my alignment at this point.

Matt, literally this. I don't think scum have some sort of PR worth wasting this possibility on.

[Shamrock]

Literally that.

[MattP]

We go into tonight and CO kills Staeg and mafia kills me.

Tomorrow CO WIFOMs us ensuring us that he is SK so he is immune to lynch.

Players left = Jarvis, Shamrock, MSH, immune CO and Bitmap

We need CO's vote to lynch anyone. CO doesn't give it to us

You realize CO already lost this game as SK and he can give the win to mafia. You are trusting a third party member just because we can direct his kill. That's dumb as fuck actually.

CO dies today, mafia NKs, we are left with Jarvis, me/Staeg, Bitmap, DV, Sham and MSH. Lynch DV or MSH tomorrow.

[MattP]

Co is guaranteed to be lying or I have a negative utility role! God, you guys are being incredibly ignorant.

[Staeg]

We go into tonight and CO kills Staeg and mafia kills me.

For one, why are you letting them coordinate like this, for two, no.
Your entire thing is based on CO being SK and playing against his win condition, because, let me make it bigger:

IF MSH LIVES THROUGH THE NIGHT CO IS LYNCHED TOMORROW. DONE AND DONE.