Open 459: There is a New Scum in Town. Game Over Town Wins!

[buldermar]

Oh, if UCT flips town, JK needs to make it slightly higher than a 50% chance they jail Majiffy. like 60/40.

Actually I think the best option is that the JK will

possibly

jail Majiffy, but the exact probability is not revealed, but I'm tired atm so I may change my mind in the morning.

Actually there is an equilibrium that can be calculated, and it's well below 50% because well below 50% still does not make targetting Majiffy versus targetting any one target that has like 10% worthwhile. I'll attempt to calculate exactly what the probability should be tomorrow when I have time and am fresh.

[borkjerfkin]

I'm not sure I agree with you but you're thinking on the right lines.

[buldermar]

Agreed upon person in the 1 scum left scenario = either a kill happens and that person gets cleared and it's a scummy person so we take them out of the lynch pool and things are good or no kill happens and things are good (yeah there's WIFOM potential here but scum have to no kill to do it)

The WIFOM potential here is pretty detrimental though: essentially scum can trade a nightkill for a daylynch by merely not nightkilling. I'm pretty sure that we have to have a degree of uncertainty even if there is only one scum left.

[Majiffy]

ZzZzZzZzZz

[borkjerfkin]

That doesn't mean we automatically go and lynch the person that we jailkept -- we need to treat that scenario for the WIFOM potential it has.

But the possibility of clearing Maenara with a nightkill is huge.

[buldermar]

I'm not sure I agree with you but you're thinking on the right lines.

It's somewhat difficult to calculate because it's a recursive function, i.e., the probability of Majiffy succesfully protecting someone later in the game depends on the probability that he gets killed over night. But the point is that it's an equilibrium which means there is an exact optimal distribution of probabilities for possible JK targets.

[borkjerfkin]

You really need to take into account the fact that he's confirmed town too.

[buldermar]

That doesn't mean we automatically go and lynch the person that we jailkept -- we need to treat that scenario for the WIFOM potential it has.

But the possibility of clearing Maenara with a nightkill is huge.

I guess what I'm saying is that we essentially get zero information in case that no kill happen because it is a WIFOM scenario. But since no kill means that we can at worst lynch a random person which would eventually lead to our victory because we have confirmed towns, no kill is not an option as long as we don't lynch the jailed person just because no kill happened. In other words, scum is forced to kill even if it clears the jailed person as long as we simply completely disregard no-kill scenarios. Makes sense?

[Majiffy]

I'm not sure going further into this conversation is actually going to help town.

[buldermar]

You really need to take into account the fact that he's confirmed town too.

That's true. A confirmed town is worth 16.67% in 3p LyLo.

Anyway I'm going to sleep, I'm too tired to look into this atm.

[borkjerfkin]

Agree with you both.

[Majiffy]

Great then lets get a hammer on this scum.

[RachMarie]

To clarify:

Doc protects one person, if that person is targeted by scum they are not killed (unless role blocked), and Doc can not self protect.

JK can roleblock and if his or her target is targeted by scum at night, he or she protects as well.

[Majiffy]

Yeah I think we got that.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: UCT

[borkjerfkin]

Stick to the plan.

[pirate mollie]

is that a lynch then?

[Majiffy]

Think so.

[uctriton00]

Who to add to my signature, sigh

[uctriton00]

Information lunched but I would be more upset if I was a PR. Now I'm going to stew. -_-

[Nachomamma8]

mollie confirmed herself as town in her townie way
if buldermar is scum, he's impressed the fuck out of me and i'll write him a poem on how excellently he's playing
penguin is town thanks to majiffy who is also town
this is the strongest townread i've gotten on kmd, ever
director and bork are obvtown, pretty much
uct is town town town

and maenara and ns are maenara and ns

'jiffy
we shouldn't be at odds anymore

[Nachomamma8]

sorry uct

[borkjerfkin]

mollie's inching her way off my townlist.

[Majiffy]

we shouldn't be at odds anymore

I dunno, dat "obvtown" director read...

[Nachomamma8]

we shouldn't be at odds anymore

I dunno, dat "obvtown" director read...

...