Open 459: There is a New Scum in Town. Game Over Town Wins!

buldermar · Post Post #1800 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 8:48 am

Yeah, I just wanted to make sure that it wasn't entirely wrong but between 50% and 60% seems pretty balanced.

buldermar · Post Post #1801 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 8:49 am

I'll hammer uct the next time I see him on L-1.

pirate mollie · Post Post #1802 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 8:57 am

I still say (with the recent info from majiffy) that maenara and ns look like pondscum.

ISO · Post Post #1803 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:00 am

NS plays like this every game. He's a policy lynch for me through and through.

Definitely want to legitimately lynch Maenara.

Majiffy · Post Post #1804 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:11 am

↑ buldermar wrote:Last night I realized that calculating the ideal probability of protecting Majiffy is simply too much work. It would take taking into account all of the possible future day and night permutations. I think a rough estimate could be 3p LyLo value plus the probability of him succesfully protecting town if he isn't killed plus 1/N where N is the amount of players plus something for his value on possible future days which combined would always be less than 16.67%, so let's say that's 15%... so that would be something like 16.67%+20%+15%=51.67%.

Just who the fuck do you think you are, shos?

Nobody Special · Post Post #1805 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:13 am

No, jeck.

Maenara · Post Post #1806 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:16 am

VOTE: UTC

Here we go again. L-1.

Also, Bork, no.

ISO · Post Post #1807 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:18 am

I can't be bothered to snarky response that

Majiffy · Post Post #1808 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:23 am

Oh come on I'm drawing a blank on anything to say and you know somebody has to do it.

pirate mollie · Post Post #1809 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:41 am

okay, let's do this thing!

VOTE: uct

RachMarie · Post Post #1810 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:49 am

Vote Count 3.5

pirate mollie (1) the director
Nobody Special (3) penguin_alien, uctriton00, Kmd4390

uctriton00 (4) Majiffy, Borkjerfkin, Nobody Special, Nachomamma8, Maenara, Pirate Mollie LYNCH

Not Voting
Buldemar

With 11 it takes 6 to lynch

(expired on 2013-01-14 17:06:10)

Flavor and flip in next post.

RachMarie · Post Post #1811 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 10:01 am

The day felt so long to the committee as they discussed who the mafia in their midst could be. Much discussion occurred, even some that was not related to the decision at hand. It seems the people are feeling more comfortable around each other. Several times it seemed like they had reached consensus, but then they changed their mind. Most of the suspicion focused on uct and NS, and it looked like either one would be the lynch of the day for a long time. Finally, a plan was decided on, math was introduced much to the consternation of the mayor, and a lynch was decided....

String him up they cried. As uct breathed his last breath, a shimmer of glamor evaporated. Majiffy exclaims See I told you he was scum!

uctriton00

Mafia Goon

was lynched on Day 3.

Night actions need to be in by (expired on 2013-01-11 17:01:16)

RachMarie · Post Post #1812 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:33 am

The dawn breaks and as everyone shuffles into the room they count noses. One of their group is missing! Who is it? The director is missing. They rush to his bedroom to find him laying in a pool of blood where he had been shot. Next to him was the keys to the jail cell.

the director

Jailkeeper

was killed Night 3.

With 9 it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is (expired on 2013-02-02 17:31:55)

Majiffy · Post Post #1813 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:39 am

ISO · Post Post #1814 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:42 am

Ok so Maenara is town, NS is probably town.

ISO · Post Post #1815 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:43 am

buldermar is also probably town due to there were 3 people that called Fe out for flaking and UCT was one of them. I doubt either of the others are scum.

pirate mollie · Post Post #1816 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:47 am

saw that one coming

Majiffy · Post Post #1817 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:04 am

Spoiler: Day 1 VCs

pirate mollie · Post Post #1818 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:10 am

uct list:

town

maenara
buldey
nacho

scum

penguin
majiffy
ns

pirate mollie · Post Post #1819 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:11 am

majiffy did you ever iso nacho?

pirate mollie · Post Post #1820 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:11 am

VOTE: nacho

Majiffy · Post Post #1821 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:13 am

Spoiler: D2 VCs

Majiffy · Post Post #1822 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:19 am

Spoiler: D3 VCs

Majiffy · Post Post #1823 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:20 am

Mollie - No, I haven't.

Going into hibernation (VCA)

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #1824 (ISO) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:21 am

kmd
i completely understand where you are coming from
also majiffy
in that last votecount on d2
maenara was voting lastsurvivor, not uct

Vote: Maenara