Micro 152 - BSG Mafia (Galactica Survives?)

[fferyllt]

^^ "tell me"

[Syryana]

My, this game exploded since yesterday. First off:
UNVOTE:

I like Pitoli's responses because they seem genuine.

Investigation on FF: (I hate abbreviating to FF but I can't remember how to spell the damn thing every time)
I first got an off feeling on FF on Page 2. She got an incredibly fast town read on orcinus (in #21) then followed that up by sheeping orcinus on me (#29). The reason orcinus threw my name out there was clearly arbitrary (he even admitted to that later, #40) and she sheeps him anyways. Someone kindly correct me if I'm off-base here, but I don't see the town motivation in that. Furthermore, a cursory inspection of her meta along with analysis of her play here has proved one thing: Do not, under any circumstances, underestimate this chick. She is not the type to do something without a reason, so there's a reason behind her early orc sheep. I can't think of any town reasons why she'd do this, perhaps someone can enlighten me later.

Another point against FF was pointed out by orcinus in #81. She seems to be catching on to minor inconsistencies (e.g. orcinus contradicting his intentions w.r.t. Nero, pitoli getting flak but not buldermar, etc.). Now, IMO latching onto contradictions is not itself a scumtell, but latching onto minor contradictions that have reasonably apparent explanations is. For example, she complains that people are getting onto pitoli but not buldermar (#86), which has the immediately obvious explanation of "buldermar hasn't done anything questionable and pitoli has" (#88). Why is FF latching onto these minor things? Again, a situation arises where I can't think of a town motivation for FF's actions.

Moving onward. Not a whole lot of relevance from FF until we get to the 150's range (gods, orcinus and buldermar are windy bastards), where we have this post:

I expect to get lynched early as town more than is my "normal" at MS, in part because my play style evolved elsewhere and it's going to change as I get used to this site. changes are almost always suspicious in mafia. I think my insistence on earning my reputation here instead of importing it from elsewhere is also going to cause trouble, but I'm ok with that.

The above bothers the hell out of me. Out of all the games I've played, never once have I seen self-meta come from a townie. I read the above as an excuse to why FF's play is different now than it was in prior games (she essentially tells us meta-ing her is meaningless, through self-meta). Townies fight lynches to the death, they don't just go "Oh well, my playstyle is changing, so I'll probably be lynched early a lot now, whatever". Even if a mislynch occurs, the more interactions that person had before death gives the remaining town clues as to whom to lynch next. This passive "I'm gonna die, whatever" is very anti-town.

A great deal of her following "content" involves discussing other completed games. I treated this as filler. However, one point that stuck out for me is that FF justified her townread on orc by way of her impressions gathered from his play in a prior game (#183). I think that's a load of crock. I don't care if you've played 1 game with a person or a thousand; you don't get a townread that fast. If you assume alignment based off what you've seen from someone in a prior game, you're being very sloppy with your reads. Meta is a nice bonus, certainly. Early townreads based purely off meta are unacceptable.

Most of the rest of her stuff involves Nero and buldermar. The Nero vote and unvote (#230 and #235) seems manufactured. Nero's been trolling the entire game (and indeed, the entire time he's been on MS) and now she takes him seriously? Then decides to unvote 5 posts later due to a possible buldermar conspiracy theory? What?

In short, she's inconsistent and anti-town. Looking for possible partners.
VOTE: fferyllt

[fferyllt]

Ok.

I'm Kara "Starbuck" Thrace. Vanilla.

discuss.

[AngryPidgeon]

Vote Count 1.8

fferyllt [4/5] - Deltabacon, orcinus_theoriginal, buldermar, Syryana
pitoli [1/5] - SafetyDance
buldermar [1/5] - fferyllt
Syryana [1/5] - Lurker
SafetyDance [1/5] - pitoli

Pacifists (Not Voting): Nero

Deadline: April 16th at Noon (GMT-8)

(expired on 2013-04-16 12:00:00)

Mod Notes:

[Syryana]

Kara Thrace, the superstar Viper pilot who died, came back, led the fleet to Earth and killed countless Cylons is a vanilla townie? Pshaw. Vote stands.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I thought that was interesting. But, so many characters so few slots.

If someone doesn't beat me to it, I'll self-vote after I have one last chance to interact with buldermar. If I'm wrong about him, I'll retract my scum read before I flip.

[Syryana]

In the interests of giving you last interactions with people:
UNVOTE:

I don't trust Nero enough to leave you at L-1. I'll put my vote back if your final interactions don't change my mind.

[fferyllt]

I'm not thrilled about being mislynched but I think next time I get a town read after 2 or 3 posts it won't be so freakish looking. All early reads are tentative and subject to revision. orcinus hasn't given me any reason to revise. I think he's town.

buldermar's pushing to keep me alive today despite having a scum read on me, and saying he'd rather go with some other (unspecified at the time) lynch looked pretty horrible in reread. I'm talking specifically about post 157. This was all on spec, apparently assuming I'd be as successful spotting scum day 1 among players I'm mostly unfamiliar with if I'm town.

[fferyllt]

My, this game exploded since yesterday. First off:
UNVOTE:

I like Pitoli's responses because they seem genuine.

Investigation on FF: (I hate abbreviating to FF but I can't remember how to spell the damn thing every time)
I first got an off feeling on FF on Page 2. She got an incredibly fast town read on orcinus (in #21) then followed that up by sheeping orcinus on me (#29). The reason orcinus threw my name out there was clearly arbitrary (he even admitted to that later, #40) and she sheeps him anyways. Someone kindly correct me if I'm off-base here, but I don't see the town motivation in that. Furthermore, a cursory inspection of her meta along with analysis of her play here has proved one thing: Do not, under any circumstances, underestimate this chick. She is not the type to do something without a reason, so there's a reason behind her early orc sheep. I can't think of any town reasons why she'd do this, perhaps someone can enlighten me later.

Another point against FF was pointed out by orcinus in #81. She seems to be catching on to minor inconsistencies (e.g. orcinus contradicting his intentions w.r.t. Nero, pitoli getting flak but not buldermar, etc.). Now, IMO latching onto contradictions is not itself a scumtell, but latching onto minor contradictions that have reasonably apparent explanations is. For example, she complains that people are getting onto pitoli but not buldermar (#86), which has the immediately obvious explanation of "buldermar hasn't done anything questionable and pitoli has" (#88). Why is FF latching onto these minor things? Again, a situation arises where I can't think of a town motivation for FF's actions.

Moving onward. Not a whole lot of relevance from FF until we get to the 150's range (gods, orcinus and buldermar are windy bastards), where we have this post:

I expect to get lynched early as town more than is my "normal" at MS, in part because my play style evolved elsewhere and it's going to change as I get used to this site. changes are almost always suspicious in mafia. I think my insistence on earning my reputation here instead of importing it from elsewhere is also going to cause trouble, but I'm ok with that.

The above bothers the hell out of me. Out of all the games I've played, never once have I seen self-meta come from a townie. I read the above as an excuse to why FF's play is different now than it was in prior games (she essentially tells us meta-ing her is meaningless, through self-meta). Townies fight lynches to the death, they don't just go "Oh well, my playstyle is changing, so I'll probably be lynched early a lot now, whatever". Even if a mislynch occurs, the more interactions that person had before death gives the remaining town clues as to whom to lynch next. This passive "I'm gonna die, whatever" is very anti-town.

A great deal of her following "content" involves discussing other completed games. I treated this as filler. However, one point that stuck out for me is that FF justified her townread on orc by way of her impressions gathered from his play in a prior game (#183). I think that's a load of crock. I don't care if you've played 1 game with a person or a thousand; you don't get a townread that fast. If you assume alignment based off what you've seen from someone in a prior game, you're being very sloppy with your reads. Meta is a nice bonus, certainly. Early townreads based purely off meta are unacceptable.

Most of the rest of her stuff involves Nero and buldermar. The Nero vote and unvote (#230 and #235) seems manufactured. Nero's been trolling the entire game (and indeed, the entire time he's been on MS) and now she takes him seriously? Then decides to unvote 5 posts later due to a possible buldermar conspiracy theory? What?

In short, she's inconsistent and anti-town. Looking for possible partners.
VOTE: fferyllt

I'm not going to bother with a point by point explanation or rebuttal. Cutting to the chase, as town I am simply not going to play as carefully as I would as scum. As scum in the forums where I play regularly I struggle to find ways to imitate my town game, which involves sharp turns and about faces as I look at new info, look at info from a different direction, have a dawning realization, etc. My game is data driven, but I think the way I process the data leads to an appearance of a highly intuitive game. There are things I am willing to change about my game to fit in at MS. But not everything.

So, with that, it is possible to build a scum case on almost any town player based on the content of their posts. As town, our primary job is to catch scum, not to look super-towny. The way town players catch scum is usually after the fact, due to interactions, due to insights about how the night transpired, or due to the way their in-thread movement stand out compared to the movements of town players.

I haven't played many games with fewer than 15-16 players. I think in this size game there may be less town movement for scum to stand out against, because I'm getting very little so far from that channel of potential info.

I think I'll end this ramble here before I start in on my Hegelian theories of mafia gameplay.

[Nero]

vote fferyllt

i'm fine with it

[fferyllt]

Townish

orcinus
pitoli

Unsure:

SafetyDance
Syryana

Unsure leaning scum
Lurker
Deltabacon

Scummy:

buldermar
Nero

Nero could go in the Unsure leaning scum group, but a couple of his posts did ping hard enough to draw my vote earlier so I'm leaving him in that pile. Deltabacon bothers me almost enough to put him in the scummy pile.

The thought crossed my mind that Lurker and Nero could be the same person using two accounts.

[Nero]

terrible reads

[Nero]

The thought crossed my mind that Lurker and Nero could be the same person using two accounts.

lol

[fferyllt]

Kara Thrace, the superstar Viper pilot who died, came back, led the fleet to Earth and killed countless Cylons is a vanilla townie? Pshaw. Vote stands.

Coming back to this,

Then you think Kara would be a scum safe claim rather than a town role. And you think that I would have grabbed what would have to be about the best safe claim imaginable and then not come up with an awesome night action or passive power based on her wide array of special abilities and angelic origins.

If I were scum about to be day 1 lynched and going with a vanilla safe claim (which would be dumb based on site meta but that's kinda beside the point) I wouldn't have wasted this name.

[Deltabacon]

@Mod: V/LA until 07/04/2013

[buldermar]

buldermar, me why you were willing to pass on my lynch today on spec earlier while having a scum read on me per post 157.

If this is a question then I'm not sure I understand it.

[fferyllt]

The bolded in this post 157:

I agree on enough of your points to lean scum, but I just can't stand the thought of mislynching her specifically. You're probably right that I'm being a bit biased and I'll try not to, but I think we should seriously consider lynching someone else for at least day 1.

Here is my concerns:

Np

It's 1am and I just read through ff's only other scum game. This isn't my summarize case but I'm more convinced than ever that FF is scum.

-Ff seems to be more passive and just seems to be less engaged. This is reflected in how FF dealt with Nero.
-Why did she form such a strong read on me from literally 4 one line RVS posts--but not anyone else? Why hasn't she an opinion on Buldemar, who I assume she has offsite experience with? Where is her vote, her other reads? If she's such a strong town player and her 4 vote take it to the grave read on me isn't out of the ordinary, it's strange that she doesn't have a vote down.
-She's been less confrontational, and have expressed very few (if any?) original ideas
-I dislike the syryana vote on page 2. I don't see the pro-town intentions behind it, I don't like how she didn't follow it up
-The KBW thing still confuses me. Why are you referring to it, since you bought it up in reference to a quicklynch? Day 1 of our game was the furthest thing from a quicklynch, ever.
-She's calling out lurker for "needing more content". Don't you need more content from a lot of people (pitoli, etc)? Why singling out lurker, and this insinuates that you don't need more content on anyone else (or at least have enough to work with). I've yet to see an influx of reads from you

And everything previously mentioned

My reading of FF's game really only gave me one thing (well, three, and I'm going to save the other two for later). She's more mellow as scum. And I think I'm seeing that in her posts in this game.

This is just to jot down stuff, ill make a case with specific quotes tomorrow, but this is basically an outline.

I agree that she is more passive than usual in this game.

I don't think the forming of a town read on you based on the few posts is scummy, but I agree that it's a bit odd she has not yet stated her opinion on me, given that she has offsite experience with me. I have one thing to mention regarding this tho... I've talked to her a lot about my scum game and how I feel like I'm particularly good as scum. It could be that she is afraid of forming a town read on me and being wrong because of this. If that's the case it would be a town tell, obviously.

I don't think it's particularly strange that she doesn't have a vote down. In fact, I don't have a vote down myself, and I don't really throw around with my votes all that often. However, I also dislike the vote on page 2. That seemed very much unlike her to me and of all the things you mention, that's probably the one that means the most to me.

Calling out Lurker was odd to me. Not because she didn't call out the other people, but because calling out anyone at this point - with so long until deadline - seems forced.

[Lurker]

W

unvote

[buldermar]

If someone doesn't beat me to it, I'll self-vote after I have one last chance to interact with buldermar. If I'm wrong about him, I'll retract my scum read before I flip.

I don't often lecture you, but in this situation I'd say that self-voting is considerably anti-town as you effectively deprive town some information that could have been obtained from vote analysis.

I'm off to bed soon, but I'll respond to every question you may have as detailed as possible when I wake up.

[fferyllt]

If someone doesn't beat me to it, I'll self-vote after I have one last chance to interact with buldermar. If I'm wrong about him, I'll retract my scum read before I flip.

I don't often lecture you, but in this situation I'd say that self-voting is considerably anti-town as you effectively deprive town some information that could have been obtained from vote analysis.

I'm off to bed soon, but I'll respond to every question you may have as detailed as possible when I wake up.

I'll wait.

[buldermar]

buldermar's pushing to keep me alive today despite having a scum read on me, and saying he'd rather go with some other (unspecified at the time) lynch looked pretty horrible in reread. I'm talking specifically about post 157. This was all on spec, apparently assuming I'd be as successful spotting scum day 1 among players I'm mostly unfamiliar with if I'm town.

This is a misrepresentation and I really can't see a way for you to legitimately think that it isn't. 157 was specifically a response to post 154 in which orc asked me:

Buldemar, fear of mislynching completely aside, do you think fery is lean town or lean scum? I think you're letting that cloud your judgement too much. Yes, we should do risk/reward analysis, but I don't think you're giving the fery case a fair chance in your head.

I never assumed that you'd be

as

succesful; I said I'd consider you the strongest town player by far. In fact, I call you out on this bullshit right now: point to the post in which I explicitly or implicitly state that you would be as good in this crowd as in your home setting, please.

[buldermar]

vote fferyllt

i'm fine with it

UNVOTE:

I'm not backing off the wagon or anything, but there's no disadvantage to letting her conversate with me first.

[buldermar]

Nero could go in the Unsure leaning scum group, but a couple of his posts did ping hard enough to draw my vote earlier so I'm leaving him in that pile. Deltabacon bothers me almost enough to put him in the scummy pile.

The thought crossed my mind that Lurker and Nero could be the same person using two accounts.

Maybe I've missed it, but why is pitoli in the town pile? I agree that he's town, I just don't recall you having stated why you think so.

[buldermar]

The thought crossed my mind that Lurker and Nero could be the same person using two accounts.

If this is a serious concern then you should in my opinion contact the admin. It's a serious breakage of rules.

[fferyllt]

buldermar's pushing to keep me alive today despite having a scum read on me, and saying he'd rather go with some other (unspecified at the time) lynch looked pretty horrible in reread. I'm talking specifically about post 157. This was all on spec, apparently assuming I'd be as successful spotting scum day 1 among players I'm mostly unfamiliar with if I'm town.

This is a misrepresentation and I really can't see a way for you to legitimately think that it isn't. 157 was specifically a response to post 154 in which orc asked me:

Buldemar, fear of mislynching completely aside, do you think fery is lean town or lean scum? I think you're letting that cloud your judgement too much. Yes, we should do risk/reward analysis, but I don't think you're giving the fery case a fair chance in your head.

I never assumed that you'd be

as

succesful; I said I'd consider you the strongest town player by far. In fact, I call you out on this bullshit right now: point to the post in which I explicitly or implicitly state that you would be as good in this crowd as in your home setting, please.

I think it

was

implicit in making such a big deal about the game where I did spot 4 scum on day 1 and using that as part of your argument for not lynching me.