Open 493 - Jungle Republic. (Game Over - Werewolf Victory)

[Bulbazak]

Last I checked, nearly everyone else was on board. I'm just stating why the case against him is actually bad. There are much better scumspects out there, Autti, Mac, and Egg, to name a few.

[thenewearth]

VOTE: Klick

Klick > Autti

[Does Bo Know]

It's not my place to say why it isn't important, Mac. It's my place to ask why you think it's important, or that it's worth remembering.

If you thought I was werewolf in the first place, Mac, why didn't you just say so?

[Klick]

Well, I can explain it first

when I replaced into the game, everyone was hounding on icebox, thinking icebox was scum

there was also a clamor on fuzzy

Now I sorta make an assumption when I join games, I assume that the entire town is wrong and that the biggest bandwagon is on town. I know this isn't always true, but its what I do because it causes everyone to have a big reaction to me which helps me get reads.

so I assumed both fuzzy and icebox were town

But I wanted to reaction test, and icebox posted something that was a little awkward that someone called him out for being a slip, so I acted like it was a big deal and was a slip (and even posted a large image of stick figures playing football that said "FUMBLE!!"). Whats interesting is that I was TOTALLY supportive of wagoning icebox vocally, but I never voted icebox, because I was just trying to see how people would react. I never actually thought icebox made a slip, it was just awkward phrasing.

While I was doing that, not only did Klick vote for, push on, and be confident about icebox being scum for his slip, he ALSO lauded me for joining the game saying that I make the game more entertaining. That set off my scum-dar as I once played in a klick-modded game before as town and pretty much guaranteed a scum-victory with my poor play (I've gotten better since then )

This doesn't add up because I voted Icebox before there was any other support for his slip. You hadn't posted about it yet.

Also, here's a prime example of me strongly believing in slips.

On a different note, @Bulba: Can you tell me why Egg is suspicious? I have him as a strong townread from early play.

[Bulbazak]

@Bulba: Can you tell me why Egg is suspicious? I have him as a strong townread from early play.

He voiced support for a Fuzzy lynch yet never actually voted him until after Bacde replaced in a started getting the wagon rolling. He tried to direct the NK, which I've stated how anti-town that is (It also gave him a reason to unleash some WIFOM.). In regards to his scumreads, he's been keeping his options open. Finally, when asked about which faction should take a priority lynch-wise, he preferred to focus on the mafia, wanting to keep the werewolf NKs in play in an effort to use them, which is a fairly werewolf-sided response. I strongly believe him to be the last werewolf, and Fuzzy's partner.

[goodmorning]

Calling it now: Bulba vs. Bacde won't turn out to be Town v Town.

[Bulbazak]

What are your thoughts on the exchange?

[Syryana]

Alrighty, more or less read up now.
Conf-town:
Icebox -

seer

Conf-scum:
Fuzzy -

werewolf

Town:
DBK
Bacde

Leaning town:
Egg

Null:
Mac

Leaning scum:
TNE

Definitely scum:
GM
Autti
Bulbazak
Klick

So, my thoughts. Go.

DBK is still a strong townread. Bacde has also since been upgraded; not seeing anything to convince me otherwise in his posts.

Egg has since been downgraded; though I really like a lot of the things he's done, Bulba makes a decent point about his treatment of fuzzy. While Egg's rebuttal is believable, I have a sliver of doubt in my heart about it so I downgraded him to a town lean instead.

Mac's still null to me. Bacde says he's not mafia because of how he reacted to Klick, and not a werewolf because he didn't bus fuzzy? I'm not sure I buy that. I'm really not in the mood to go meta him; has someone played with Mac a lot before? Is Mac the bussing kind, or is he a more cautious scum player? If you can, link me some games. Thanks.

TNE's on my leaning scum list because he's a fluffy lurky bastard. If I'm wrong about one of my major scumreads, he's getting the upgrade.

GM got downgraded to a major scumread because her explanations for her reads (and the reads themselves) blow. I'm apparently scum because I'm not trolling, DBK is town for sticking to his guns (he's like the wishy washiest guy here), Klick is reading town because of his apathy... I'm not continuing. Autti is scum as fuck: active lurking, fencesitting, his #791 and #795 are some of the most blatant scumposts I've ever seen. Klick is probably scum too (reasons haven't really changed since I last said why), but I think he's less scummy than Autti for now (but I might change to Bulba, more on that soon), so vote stays on Autti. Bulbazak is definitely mafia. I thought he was scum yesterday; that read hasn't noticeably changed as I wasn't satisfied with his response to my reasons he's scum.

However, note that I say mafia; there's no way in hell he's a wolf. Why is this, you ask? Reason: Bulbazak, from Day 1, has been actively

wolf hunting

. What is the mafia's number one priority right now? Removing the wolf threat. There is only one wolf remaining; if the mafia can find and lynch that wolf, the game becomes nightless. 6:3 nightless is pretty bad town odds. Not to mention with the seer dead the wolf priority is now killing mobsters; the longer that wolf stays alive the more mafia members are going to die.

What has Bulba been doing today? Hunting for fuzzy's partner. Note Bulbazak's posts today:

Spoiler: Bulba's posting

While Autti is a good lynch, I'm not going to put him at L-1 so early in the day,

especially since I don't think he's Fuzzy's partner

. However, after doing a side-by-side ISO, I think I know who is.

Vote Egg

Called Fuzzy scum for most of the day, yet avoided the wagon until it started to gain traction after Bacde replaced in. Is eager to direct the NKs. When asked about which faction should be lynched, he preferred lynching Mafia over Werewolf. He's also been keeping his options open lynch-wise.

I did a side-by-side of Egg, Autti, and you alongside Fuzzy.

I looked at Klick and Mac independently.

I completely forgot Mac existed. Any new conclusions with that?

Still think he's scum,

but he's not Fuzzy's partner.

I actually did ISO Bo and Fuzzy, because I had the same thought. I saw no connection between the 2. Bo flopped back and forth on Fuzzy all game,

but it didn't read as partner interaction whatsoever.

I never really explained why I think Klick is scum

but Mac independently came up with the exact same reason on his own

Thats unlikely to come from someone who is Klick's buddy, they would have come up with shoddy reasoning at best

Which means the only way for Mac to be scum (assuming Klick is mafia) is if he is a werewolf

But he's probably not a werewolf for a bunch of reasons I've been saying

Or it means Klick might be town, Mac might be scum, and you might have confirmation bias.

I actually did ISO Bo and Fuzzy, because I had the same thought. I saw no connection between the 2. Bo flopped back and forth on Fuzzy all game, but it didn't read as partner interaction whatsoever.

what do you look for when trying to read for partner interactions?

I'm looking for reasons on the wagon (Are they bussing or not.), reactions to each other, and whether any interaction between them read as genuine or manufactured.

Bo was on the Fuzzy wagon when it made no sense for a scumpartner to be on it. His actual confusion concerning Fuzzy's alignment reads as genuine, even when read in a dual ISO, which leads me to believe that Bo had no clue what Fuzzy's actual alignment was.

I would have expected Fuzzy's partner to perhaps bus him when it seemed inevitable to gain towncred

, but Bo was on the wagon when it didn't make sense for a partner to be.

However, go back and check Egg's reaction. He states approval for the Fuzzy wagon for most of the game without joining it, and he only joins it after it starts gaining a lot of traction after Bacde enters the game. That read like distancing and bussing to me.

Bo was on the Fuzzy wagon when it made no sense for a scumpartner to be on it.

His actual confusion concerning Fuzzy's alignment reads as genuine, even when read in a dual ISO, which leads me to believe that Bo had no clue what Fuzzy's actual alignment was. I would have expected Fuzzy's partner to perhaps bus him when it seemed inevitable to gain towncred, but Bo was on the wagon when it didn't make sense for a partner to be.

how does the bolded work then. iirc DBK hopped on every wagon and it's mother, before hammering fuzzy. distancing and then bussing.

Did you read the rest of my post? Bo's reasonings for voting the way he did and his confusion on Fuzzy read as genuine. Their interactions did not read like 2 scumpartners when I went through their ISO.

Therefore, I don't think Bo is Fuzzy's partner.

Well, I can explain it first

when I replaced into the game, everyone was hounding on icebox, thinking icebox was scum

there was also a clamor on fuzzy

Now I sorta make an assumption when I join games, I assume that the entire town is wrong and that the biggest bandwagon is on town. I know this isn't always true, but its what I do because it causes everyone to have a big reaction to me which helps me get reads.

so I assumed both fuzzy and icebox were town

But I wanted to reaction test, and icebox posted something that was a little awkward that someone called him out for being a slip, so I acted like it was a big deal and was a slip (and even posted a large image of stick figures playing football that said "FUMBLE!!"). Whats interesting is that I was TOTALLY supportive of wagoning icebox vocally, but I never voted icebox, because I was just trying to see how people would react. I never actually thought icebox made a slip, it was just awkward phrasing.

While I was doing that, not only did Klick vote for, push on, and be confident about icebox being scum for his slip, he ALSO lauded me for joining the game saying that I make the game more entertaining. That set off my scum-dar as I once played in a klick-modded game before as town and pretty much guaranteed a scum-victory with my poor play (I've gotten better since then )

Was this your entire case? That Klick welcomed you to the game and was influenced by a slip (which from experience playing with him, he is apt to do)? Face it, you have nothing. For the same reason, Mac is not automatically town, because he brought up the slip thing. In fact, he's probably scum who is buddying up to you seeking town cred.

@Bulba: Can you tell me why Egg is suspicious? I have him as a strong townread from early play.

He voiced support for a Fuzzy lynch yet never actually voted him until after Bacde replaced in a started getting the wagon rolling. He tried to direct the NK, which I've stated how anti-town that is (It also gave him a reason to unleash some WIFOM.). In regards to his scumreads, he's been keeping his options open. Finally, when asked about which faction should take a priority lynch-wise, he preferred to focus on the mafia, wanting to keep the werewolf NKs in play in an effort to use them, which is a fairly werewolf-sided response.

I strongly believe him to be the last werewolf, and Fuzzy's partner.

If you look at the posts in the spoiler (I bolded them to make it easier), you'll notice that Bulbazak is

obsessed

with finding fuzzy's partner. This means two things: 1)He thinks lynching the final wolf is what he needs to be doing right now and 2)Bulbazak is not a wolf. He's mafia.

[Bulbazak]

Syryana, of course I'm going to be looking for the wolf in particular. They have a night kill! We get rid of the wolf, we can begin to control the pace of the game, since we will no longer have to worry about losing town members during the night. Going into tomorrow, we'd outnumber scum 2:1, and unlike some people, I don't believe this would mean that scum would become impossible to catch. The NK is the biggest threat to the town right now. If we can eliminate that, we can control the game and find scum via PoE.

[Does Bo Know]

Syr.

That Bulb scum read

reeks

.

[thenewearth]

Well tbh either way, I'd hunt for werewolf partner. Town or mafia.

Since in both alignments, werewolves are bad.

Mafia are pretty much scum masons now. They can't kill. So I can see where bulba is heading.
So I really don't see the harm in looking for the other werewolf

[Syryana]

Syryana, of course I'm going to be looking for the wolf in particular. They have a night kill! We get rid of the wolf, we can begin to control the pace of the game, since we will no longer have to worry about losing town members during the night. Going into tomorrow, we'd outnumber scum 2:1, and unlike some people, I don't believe this would mean that scum would become impossible to catch. The NK is the biggest threat to the town right now. If we can eliminate that, we can control the game and find scum via PoE.

I don't see how being in a 6:3 nightless today (assuming we find and catch the wolf) is better than being in a possible 5:1 nightless tomorrow (if mafia are caught/NK'd and we then lynch the wolf) or some other combination. There's one scenario in which we

won't

be in a situation that's better than today, and that's if the wolf and the town both kill townies. A scenario I find frankly unlikely given the pool of suspects atm.

Syr.

That Bulb scum read

reeks

.

Do elaborate. Also realize that most of what I put in my previous post was not why I think Bulba is scum, but rather why I think he's mafia. You'll have to go back to my prior post to see why he's scum.

Well tbh either way, I'd hunt for werewolf partner. Town or mafia.

Since in both alignments, werewolves are bad.

Mafia are pretty much scum masons now. They can't kill. So I can see where bulba is heading.
So I really don't see the harm in looking for the other werewolf

Yes. However, Bulba doesn't just want to find the wolf, he wants to lynch the wolf. I think it would be better to find him then let him kill a few mafia before we kill him. If we can find him, we can control him.

[thenewearth]

That's IF he decides to kill mafia. Though you saying it... Makes the strategy less effective though.

And OMFG I'M SO SLOW! I get what you mean now. And am Inclined to vote bulba in the future.

But I'd stick to my klick thing

[Klick]

On the topic of lynching either a Mafia or a Wolf, I still think that it's advantageous to lynch the Wolf. The only reason to try not to lynch him is if we assume he's going to kill Mafia at night, which currently has a 1/3 chance of happening, and will either be 3/8 or 1/4 (or 0 if he's dead) come night. Otherwise, we're hurting ourselves leaving him alive.

However, I think Wolf-hunting itself is about as useful as SK-hunting here. It's unlikely to happen.

Autti's still likely scum, along with GM, DBK, and TNE.

[zabriel]

VC 2.02

Autti (Goodmorning, DBK, Klick, Syryana) - L-2
Egg (Bulba)
Klick (Egg, Bacde, TNE) - L-3

[goodmorning]

What are your thoughts on the exchange?

For a start you both seem to be somewhat ignoring each other's points, rendering it at least vaguely a repetition case. (because it actually starts before 945 somewhere and then the semantic argument begins) ("klick was influenced by a slip, that makes him scum" "he does that as Town" "no, Scum")
Add to that the fact that the most recent bit is largely a semantic argument (particular bit I am referencing here starts at 945) ("that wasn't a slip" "yes it was" "no, a slip comes from scum" "well it looked like a slip"), and it looks pretty likely. Town wouldn't typically get into semantic arguments amongst themselves, usually Scum is involved somewhere. So at least one of {you, Bacde, Klick} is probably Scum.
As a caveat, it's not particularly likely that you and Bacde are both Scum (at least, not of the same team) because of the breadth and depth of discussion on page 38 in particular.


@Syr: lololololololol

THE POINT

YOUR HEAD

[Bacde]

Well, I can explain it first

when I replaced into the game, everyone was hounding on icebox, thinking icebox was scum

there was also a clamor on fuzzy

Now I sorta make an assumption when I join games, I assume that the entire town is wrong and that the biggest bandwagon is on town. I know this isn't always true, but its what I do because it causes everyone to have a big reaction to me which helps me get reads.

so I assumed both fuzzy and icebox were town

But I wanted to reaction test, and icebox posted something that was a little awkward that someone called him out for being a slip, so I acted like it was a big deal and was a slip (and even posted a large image of stick figures playing football that said "FUMBLE!!"). Whats interesting is that I was TOTALLY supportive of wagoning icebox vocally, but I never voted icebox, because I was just trying to see how people would react. I never actually thought icebox made a slip, it was just awkward phrasing.

While I was doing that, not only did Klick vote for, push on, and be confident about icebox being scum for his slip, he ALSO lauded me for joining the game saying that I make the game more entertaining. That set off my scum-dar as I once played in a klick-modded game before as town and pretty much guaranteed a scum-victory with my poor play (I've gotten better since then )

This doesn't add up because I voted Icebox before there was any other support for his slip. You hadn't posted about it yet.

Also, here's a prime example of me strongly believing in slips.

On a different note, @Bulba: Can you tell me why Egg is suspicious? I have him as a strong townread from early play.

Can you tell me why this link shows you being interested in slips? I ISOed you and searched for the term "slip" and am not really finding anything

Also, can you link me to some games where you incorrectly identified something as a slip that actually wasn't, yet you were still convinced of it being a slip? (town games plz)

[Does Bo Know]

@Syr: You think Bulb is scum because
- he pointed out something about 3 scum instead of 5. Which is suspicious, but I highly doubt it warrants a lynch anytime soon. Could be Mafia (only thinking Mafia has three members) or Werewolf (Only looking for three scum members).
- he avoided the topic after Icebox's claim. I saw his response and it looked solid, IMO. Bulbazak isn't a rapid-poster, and he seems like the type to drop everything when a PR claims.

Reason he's Mafia and not Wolf: he's avidly hunting for the wolf. Well, firstly, it's not unlike Bulb to try to abolish a NK before focusing on Mafia (ANY Nightless is better than something with a NK), because I know that Bulb is the type of player willing to do anything to make his wincon easier. Getting rid of the NK does also help Mafia, but also Town. (And Mafia may like leaving the NK there if they believe the Wolf will hit town that night.)

[Bacde]

@Syr If bulba is a strong scumread for you, why do his posts affect your opinion on Egg in any way?

[Bulbazak]

I don't see how being in a 6:3 nightless today (assuming we find and catch the wolf) is better than being in a possible 5:1 nightless tomorrow (if mafia are caught/NK'd and we then lynch the wolf) or some other combination. There's one scenario in which we

won't

be in a situation that's better than today, and that's if the wolf and the town both kill townies. A scenario I find frankly unlikely given the pool of suspects atm.

You're assuming that a NK will hit mafia and not town. The chance that the NK might hit town makes leaving the wolf alive too big of a risk. If we have a good idea who the wolf is, that should be our lynch. Otherwise, lynching any flavor of scum will do.

[Bacde]

Bulb here's the thing:

I'd rather lynch scumreads than lynch people who might possibly be the wolf but might possibly be town

there's a big difference, and thats that scumreads are more likely to be scum

[Bulbazak]

Egg is a scumread who I happen to think is a wolf, AKA Fuzzy's partner. If I didn't have a lead otherwise, I'd just vote one of my other scumreads.

[Bacde]

right, well, good luck with that

more votes on klick please

[Syryana]

@Syr: You think Bulb is scum because
- he pointed out something about 3 scum instead of 5. Which is suspicious, but I highly doubt it warrants a lynch anytime soon. Could be Mafia (only thinking Mafia has three members) or Werewolf (Only looking for three scum members).
- he avoided the topic after Icebox's claim. I saw his response and it looked solid, IMO. Bulbazak isn't a rapid-poster, and he seems like the type to drop everything when a PR claims.

Reason he's Mafia and not Wolf: he's avidly hunting for the wolf. Well, firstly, it's not unlike Bulb to try to abolish a NK before focusing on Mafia (ANY Nightless is better than something with a NK), because I know that Bulb is the type of player willing to do anything to make his wincon easier. Getting rid of the NK does also help Mafia, but also Town. (And Mafia may like leaving the NK there if they believe the Wolf will hit town that night.)

While what you say makes sense (though I need to meta Bulbatown to verify that last paragraph at some point) I'm still not willing to give up on my read on him just yet. I just have this really strong feeling he's scum.

@Syr If bulba is a strong scumread for you, why do his posts affect your opinion on Egg in any way?

I think it's highly unlikely Bulba is the wolf for reasons I stated previously. Even though he's scum he can still help town find the wolf. His reason he thinks Egg might be fuzzy's partner resonates with me enough to make me doubt myself on Egg. If Bulba (or anyone else) died right now and flipped wolf, Egg would go right back in the conftown pile.

You're assuming that a NK will hit mafia and not town. The chance that the NK might hit town makes leaving the wolf alive too big of a risk. If we have a good idea who the wolf is, that should be our lynch. Otherwise, lynching any flavor of scum will do.

Considering the suspect pool we've got, yes I'm assuming the NK will hit scum. Statistically that's not true (6:3) but I don't see the wolf killing randomly. I'm still not interested in lynching a townread who

might

be a wolf over Klick/Autti/GM.

Egg is a scumread who I happen to think is a wolf, AKA Fuzzy's partner. If I didn't have a lead otherwise, I'd just vote one of my other scumreads.

Who ARE your other scumreads?

[Bulbazak]

Who ARE your other scumreads?

Autti and Mac. Still trying to figure out what I think about TNE and Bo, as they are both nulls.