Xenoblade Mafia (Game Over)

[borkjerfkin]

BROSeidon was prodded.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 6.2

[1] Metal Sonic (TiphaineDeath)
[1] TiphaineDeath (Metal Sonic)

[3] Not Voting (Andrius, BROseidon, Nachomamma8)

With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-07-11 23:00:00)

TiphaineDeath is V/LA through 7/8

[BROseidon]

So. Much. To. Read.

Fuck it I'll post something this afternoon but it won't be as exhaustive as I would have liked.

[Metal Sonic]

i took 1.5 hours to write a A-level quality essay against a player in andy's game

i'm going to to this one only when i feel very.... very.... free

[BROseidon]

Trying to get a post out and MS keeps logging me out for no reason.

[BROseidon]

God dammit can it stop doing that when I try to pull like 30 quotes for a massive wall.

[BROseidon]

Joint iso of GiF/TD/MS because fuck it I’m not going through 2’s 550 posts again.

GiF’s 93 and 97 are interesting. GiF doesn’t want to give a read on MS because he’s following a game. Not sure what to make of that.

@orc's 158 - not yet but there's a high chance my vote will end up there, especially after stuff like 168.

Weakish early stance on TD. Note that GiF’s vote never actually goes on TD.

Scum (not in strength order)
TD/sven/2

Still hasn’t said much about TD nor placed a vote here, but early scumreads with 2. GiF has also been weakly pushing 2 in a similar way up until this point. Also strange to joint scumread sven/TD when TD was pushing Sven at this point.

I skimmed the whole 700 page of wall


nacho town

freezerguy town

orc town

vassoon town

beautybeast town

mac town

tiphaine scum

sven troll

MS’s 15 minute skim. No comment on 2, but does townread GiF. Not an indicting entrance, imo.

2 also town, forgot to add u

P-edit no i am not going to vote someone, yet

Nevermind this entrance is actually now bad, with early townreads on both red scum. However, GiF was fairly consensus townread at this point and 2 hadn’t collapsed completely yet, so it’s not completely horrible.

AJ/Varsoon/Molljiffy.

I see what you mean by there.

But imo the TD wagon is not growing as fast as I would expect.

Perhaps the TD wagon didn’t build as quickly as “GiF would expect” because TD was scum and scum wouldn’t want to have one of their own lynched early in multiball? This point will also be relevant when I look at TD for bluescum.

Fact the third: When Nacho presented me evidence that this kind of thing does in fact occur, occurred in a game he was in, and is not a myth perpetuated to gain mislynches I FOUND THIS "INTERESTING" AND REMOVED MY VOTE.
Fact the fourth: The way sven is playing out this miller claim is not town. His multiple if I was scum if I was town posts really ping the scumdar for me, thus I voted him. I completely disagree with the stated fact that any miller claim creates wifom, that's bullshit.

Justifying fence-sitting logic in a weak way. I do not recall Sven’s claim being bad.

Town rage by 2.

No.

Varsoon makes eggo look like the inferior waffle brand.

That's not enough.

Defends Varsoon vs. Cabd but not TD. Doesn’t even comment on Cabd’s logic against TD. Looks like he doesn’t want to implicate himself later.

hey orc do u wanna MS wagon?

This looks good for MS, imo.

2 getting scummier

aj leaning town now

ghostlin town

mac stil town

reverend a+ slip contradiction strong

beast leaning town

andrius town

also good luck with reading john or whoever had to read 50 pages

cabd and guy in freezer very town right now

However, here there is no trajectory on the 2 read. Granted, MS hadn’t provided anything in terms of transparency with anything, so his trajectory with all his reads sucks >.>

Lol 1 minute iso. Just got to that and had forgotten how hilarious that was.

Ugh here starts the MS/TD mutual death-tunnels.

2 is still town

…still no.

2, nacho varsoon cabd strong town

Holy fuck the flopping 2 read. I don’t even…

My read changes:
2: scum to town
Rev: scum to town
MS: null to town

Now GiF pairs 2 with MS+a townie. Now he’s done it with both of them.

2420 and 2429 look like a late bus attempt to save face. However, TD tries to push a counterwagon, unlike GiF who jumps on the wagon.

2 was degraded from town to leaning town, just before the lynch

MS’s admitting to being wrong and not bussing actually is favorable to him, imo.

idc what everyone says Varsoon is town.
MS is also town.
AJ can be scum even though i would like to find my own reason on him.
My townreads so far haven't changed yet.
spinach slot looks better imo.
I still think Sajin is town even with his awkward convo with Venmar.
I still think TD is scum, but it's just a gut now.

Still never actually pushes TD.

As of now, TD (I'm still not convinced), SAD.

Dat trajectory.

3345 is TD already pushing this “lynch blue scum” stuff, despite not having done the same for redscum with 2.

Option one: It was a protective role, and they didn't protect ghostlin. The only other person I can see being reasonably protected last night is our claimed joat. One of the shots could have been on andi and thus prevented, this is a credible option.
Option two: It was a role block based role. If this happened, role blocker come forward now with your target, we have likely caught scum unless roleblocker missed and one of the other options is true.
Option three: We have a BP in the game who someone tried to shoot. Relatively straightforward.
Option four: Scum Crossshot, I can see this as a possibility because the kill was a conf town.
Option five: The blue scum team is dead. I haven't done the math on this but in a twenty person game if there were only four scum total wouldn't they likely all be on the same team? I know this is setup spec, and that is dangerous, but 3 and 3 feels more likely, Simply because I've never seen a multiball game with 3-2, and 4-4 would be mega-imba.
Option six: Scum held their kill. Honestly this one seems like the least likely, just because like, why would you do it? Spinach suggesting this sets off alarm bells for me, may need to go re-read tmt.

This post sits wrong with me for a few reasons. 1) The PR-hunting with the roleblocker when a roleblocker having a successful block would NOT have guaranteed that the blocked person would be scum (because of #4). Also, I feel like #4 should have been higher up on the list. It was certainly the first thing I thought when I saw the kill. Also, positing that one scum team is dead when 3/3/14 is fairly standard doesn’t sit well. Feels like scum trying to play dumb about the setup.

TD and GiF both want to hold off on massclaim. Interesting.

3503 looks like weak distancing while potentially setting up a SA mislynch

GiF’s conversation with Nacho about MS seems honest.

MS’s attack on SAD sits poorly.

MS’s push onto Nacho is solid, imo.

TD pushing nacho/me as redscum pings super hard especially now that Nacho is pretty much conf not-red, and I am not scum.

3766 MS reads GiF as “strong town.” He’s held a townread on GiF all game at this point, but I feel like scum would have wanted to start bussing, especially knowing that a crossfire was getting more and more likely with each round.

GiF scumreads SAD/TD/MS at this point. He’s bussing here. Implicates both equally.

MS’s 3814 feels really honest, imo.

Really don’t like TD’s push onto Nacho as red scum now. The “I want blue scum dead” seems really bad. Then he flips on Nacho on weak.

And we’re back to TD/MS tunneling.

I’ll ISO nacho later but TD looks super bad, MS looks fairly bad. Both could honestly be redscum and make sense but I would bias towards TD like 65-35.

Fuck Nacho has like 500 posts and Orc also has a fuckton.

[Metal Sonic]

what is trajectory?

also why is nacho conf not red?

[BROseidon]

Nacho is conf not red because he was untargetted night one.

Why would a scumdoctor not protect his scum mate?

[Andrius]

Nacho is conf not red because he was untargetted night one.

Why would a scumdoctor not protect his scum mate?

I think this is badlogic.
They control one kill- they know town won't shoot obvtown Nacho.
They only have to worry about blue.
So, it depends.
Also, maybe he's bulletproof or something. Who knows?

tl;dr: You assume a lot about scummotivation.

[Andrius]

Persons I'm not lynching until tomorrow: BRO, MS.
Persons I'm willing to lynch: Nacho, TD.

FIRST AND FOREMOST:

RiskAnalysisAssessment

LYNCH TOWN:
- Scum HAVE to shoot for each other, and if they don't crosskill and don't both kill town the team that isn't shot wins.
- Scum crosskill at night. LOL townwin.
- Scum both kill town, scorched earth for scum.

LYNCH EITHER SCUM:
- Otherscum goes into night and shoots me, because it'd be silly to drag me into LyLo.
- Otherscum goes into night and shoots someone else for reasons that are not role-related and somehow are okay with dragging me into LyLo.

LYNCH NO ONE:
- Scum kill two townies. Leads to scorched earth as the last townie should probably never vote. If he does, he basically gives the game to whichever team he wants.
- One scum dies, the other kills town. Go into LyLo 2:1.
- Scum crosskill. GG townwin.

Here's what I

want

to happen: We lynch TD, who is more likely bluescum.
Here's what I

think

should happen: We lynch Nacho, whose color is highly unascertainable.

And yes, this goes against everything I said regarding ONLY DAY ONE PLAY because BlueTD (in my mind) is heavily dependent on yesterday's play and Scumcho relies heavily on... pretty much everything that happened from D2 on.


Let me know if I'm not making sense.

Currently grinding Despotic Arsene into the ground because holy crap its easy if you don't use physical damage and apparently Glory Armor is pretty darn good. Also because Ancient Daedala literally kills anyone who walks near him in FIRIN MAH LAZER style.

[Andrius]

...I think its supposed to be Risk Assessment Analysis. Whatever.

Idk man. I think Scumcho is likely for the reasons GiF was scum, and I think TD wasn't red for the same reasons.
TD is more likely blue for the same reason spinach could have been construed as blue yesterday.

I don't really want to relook at BRO again as he's held solid to me since D1 and I don't yet feel the PARANOIA creeping in.

Ugh.

In other news I'll be here all night drinking, conducting "flavor research", and maybe beating that damn Daedalus.

[Andrius]

someone hold me
I decided to beat the game
so I did
and now it is over

there is now a massive hole in my heart
and i have no mashed potatoes to fill it with
wat do

;___;

[Metal Sonic]

play sonic

listne to sonic music

here's a recommendation for our knight andy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=SG&hl=e ... thRyUHPckI

[Andrius]

As far as Sonic music goes that can't be beat- probably because its one of the few song Nikanor and I will sing drunk.

In other news, NEW GAME+ OP.

[Metal Sonic]

yes definitely i'd sing it with you right now but that will clutter the thread

[Metal Sonic]

have you heard the remixes from generations theres 2

[Andrius]

<3

in other news
i take it you want to lynch TD today
if you had to pick a second
who would it be


predit: um no? not a great sonic fan, i just know that one game

[Metal Sonic]

td/nacho

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y29qU2edNI - City Escape Remix 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Toq36g7uqg - City Escape remix 2


these are official remixes see how you like them

[Andrius]

Definitely the former over the latter.

[Metal Sonic]

you can use this remix next time if you want to sing it )

[BROseidon]

Also, maybe he's bulletproof or something. Who knows?

Because a scumteam would get both a doc and a BP. That's excellent setup spec right there >.>

Given the flips for each scumteam that we've seen, I doubt the last scum PR is strong enough to justify not using a doctor's ability.

Gonna be busy the rest of this weekend at a gamejam (making a game woohoo), so I'm not sure when I'll get to look at the blue-side stuff with everybody. Nacho/MS/TD/Orc/Rach is a loooooooooooooooooooooooooooot of posts. May have to work on the post over multiple days.

[BROseidon]

last red scum PR*

Blue is probably fairly strong.

[Andrius]

Because a scumteam would get both a doc and a BP. That's excellent setup spec right there >.>

Thinking clearing and drinking don't mix.
>_____>

[BROseidon]

Ugh TD is V/LA and Nacho is at a meet.

MS, trajectory (assuming I'm using it right from how BnB/Nacho have been using it) is the thought process of a read. Does the change or strengthening of a read make sense, like there's a natural though process behind it, or does it look forced because scum know who their scummates are. Because you don't provide a lot of reasoning behind your reads, it makes it hard to gauge why you have your reads.

MS why did your read on 2 flip flop so much day 1?

Andy do you still think Nacho could be redscum or are you on the same page with me being almost certainly blue or town?