Xenoblade Mafia (Game Over)

[Andrius]

I don't know what color he is but since TD makes way more sense as Blue he could be red.

[BROseidon]

Why does TD make more sense as blue?

[Andrius]

Look at his play yesterday compared to GiF.

tl;dr: His play spiked to a previously unseen mode of aggression, which tells me he was more geared for survival/actually finding scum. Red, like GiF, had no great reason to and were not nearly in as dire of circumstances to push hard. So GiF's passivity makes sense.

[BROseidon]

That is a valid point. What do you think of the case I built with the associative tells with GiF?

[Andrius]

I think it was easy for GiF to establish a 'id be fine lynching either' since he had reasons and whatnot to come back to.
I see a couple things that you point towards TD/GiF, but I see it just as lining TD and MS up.

OH HEY
REMEMBER THAT TABLE
brb

[Metal Sonic]

Look at his play yesterday compared to GiF.

tl;dr: His play spiked to a previously unseen mode of aggression, which tells me he was more geared for survival/actually finding scum. Red, like GiF, had no great reason to and were not nearly in as dire of circumstances to push hard. So GiF's passivity makes sense.

holy shit this is gold

TD is scummers yep, but the SAD mislynch might make me doubt my previous reads :/

[Andrius]

Neeeeeevermind- was a reads list for someone else who wasn't GiF.

So that whole deal makes me think MS isn't red.
Aka, the first five of this:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=200

[Andrius]

EBWOP: Link broken here you go:

nacho	town	none	none	s.twn	s.twn
GIF	town	none	v.twn	none	s.twn
orc	town	none	none	none	town
varsoon	town	town	none	s.twn	s.twn
BnB	town	none	l.twn	none	town
Mac	town	none	twn	none	town
TD	scum	none	none	none	none
Sven(Rev)	troll?	none	scum	none	none
cabd	none	town	v.twn	none	s.twn
ghostlin	none	l.twn	town	l.twn	town
rach	none	town	none	none	none
sajin	none	l.twn	none	none	none
AJ	none	l.scm	l.twn	l.twn	none
bro	none	l.scm	none	none	none
2	none	none	scmr	s.twn	town
andrius	none	none	town	town	town
Venmar	none	none	none	none	none
SAD	none	none	none	none	none
TMT	none	none	none	none	none

P-Edit: Thnx.

Anyway
Those are his reads on D1. He hasn't post reads after this.

Now his voting records

ok i just iso'd tiphaine

except for #901
the rest of his posts are shit

yep scum

VOTE: TiphaineDeath

The problem vote.

MS continues to post like shit, can we kill him now please?

vote MS

Fuck off

VOTE: TD

Nacho we can discuss this vote.

also

Vote: sajin

i have some reasons which i may double check later

He never picked up on this, now did he?

yes ok

vote:varsoon

nobody in their right mind would claim like that

Out of nowhere, considering his reads.

[Metal Sonic]

bro, i dont remember the 2 read super duper clearly since its been like a month or something, but imo i think I read him town because he posted the most and was "helping the town"

but his quality flaked after a while so his towniness dropped

when he flipped scum i was mildly surprised though

same for GiF^(the mildly surprised part)


thank goodness we got a xfire else we all screwed

[Metal Sonic]

either way GiF in the game is pleasant... so


;3

[BROseidon]

Andy makes a good point for blue TD, but Nacho doesn't make sense for red and MS makes less sense than TD.

MS why does SAD townflip make you doubt your reads? What about them are you doubting?

[Metal Sonic]

If I am wrong with one of them I may be wrong with another one of them

thats all

[BROseidon]

Got it.

Yeah I'm doubting reads constantly at this point because I've been wrong about everything after the 2 flip.

[Andrius]

Andy makes a good point for blue TD, but Nacho doesn't make sense for red and MS makes less sense than TD.

MS why does SAD townflip make you doubt your reads? What about them are you doubting?

The good news is all we need is one today.

Though as a counterpoint, I thought spinach could be blue for the exact same reasons, out of NOWHERE waynegg comes in and starts accusing literally everyone of being scum, makes cases etc. It was odd and I couldn't see it coming from Redscum then.

When we were in dire straits I expected Blue to step up as they needed to level the playing field- which they did.

[BROseidon]

Waynegg stepped it up in a huge way. I was super sad when SAD flipped town.

And yeah bluescum stepping it up would make a lot of sense, although pretty much everyone except Nacho stepped it up yesterday to some degree. I would say it's valid to say TD and wayne stepped it up the most, though.

Yeah I'm starting to think TD is the way to go today. I want to run the last ISOs to be sure, but I think TD is our best bet. Unless something in Orc/Rach's ISO makes me think he's definitely not blue, he has high chance of flipping scum for either alignment that would make me want to lynch there.

[Andrius]

although pretty much everyone except Nacho stepped it up yesterday to some degree.

Yeah um this is why I think he's red. >_>

[BROseidon]

Except the n1 nobody targeting him still doesn't make sense if he's red scum. I just can't get over that.

[Metal Sonic]

although pretty much everyone except Nacho stepped it up yesterday to some degree.

Yeah um this is why I think he's red. >_>

golden x2

nacho/TD

due to SAD mislynch i may be afraid

but lets get it anyway

[Andrius]

Except the n1 nobody targeting him still doesn't make sense if he's red scum. I just can't get over that.

Blue simply had better people to target?

[BROseidon]

But GiF was doc.

That is the thing I cannot get past.

The only reason I could possibly think of is if Nacho is an n-shot ninja which would tip the red scumteam off to there possibly being a watcher role in play (n-shot or not) so they decided NOT to protect one of the most pro-town people on the day on the off chance Nacho got watched over BnB/Orc/Mac who were all also tasty targets WHILE HOPING he didn't get targeted by bluescum. I guess even if the last red isn't an n-shot ninja a watcher action being in play would still be a plausible assumption to make, but like, cmon.

That seems fairly unlikely to me.

[Andrius]

True.
You make a damn good point.
But I still can't shake scumcho.

I'm assuming that they had GiF protect someone town, acting as town would but not protecting nacho for whatever reason.

[BROseidon]

"for whatever reason."

Maybe GiF was afraid of getting tracked? Okay, this is getting really WIFOM-y and I'm just going to Occam's razor it off and say that GiF was most likely on his scumpartner.

[Metal Sonic]

I love how TDscum and scumcho aint here

makes for important private discussion

[TiphaineDeath]

I'm almost here... wait for it.

[Nachomamma8]

Idk man. I think Scumcho is likely for the reasons GiF was scum, and I think TD wasn't red for the same reasons.

andy.