Mini 1482: Castle - A Mafia Murder So Vile (GAME OVER)

[serrapaladin]

I say that people vastly overestimate how good they are at reading others. If without assigning subjective "probabilities" there's an objectively optimal course of action, that should trump reads.

I don't much care for what mantis is currently saying, to be honest. She's either caught scum or wrongly accused townie, either of which will lead to flailing.

I'm concerned about what the people not involved think.

[waynegg]

*deep breath*

Sorry wayne, that was too harsh, but this game has really been getting to me and I thought I finally had some breathing room with Wisdom no longer tunnelling on me.

<3 FG

It's ok. You can try to play with my emotions. I don't have them, but you can try.

[Bert]

As to why mantis is the optimal lynch if you're unsure which side you believe, it comes down to information and desp being a claimed PR. If we wrongly lynch desp, we've lynched a PR, whereas wrongly lynching mantis only costs us a neighbour. If mantis flips town, we know to instalynch desp, whereas if she flips scum, desp is basically conftown and nati is likely scum.

Look,

I REALLY really really really really want you to be town

I like you

BUTTTTT the counterargument, are you reading it? It's that

they DONT want to face Lylo tomorrow, and they want to get today right and they believe Desp is scum and therefore Desp is the lynch for today

I am very paranoid about all of you

[serrapaladin]

@Waynegg: please shut up and read the game.

@Mantis: Not really

Wisdom hasn't commented much, if at all , about you recently. Plus he may have talked to u before d1?

Sorry phone access only for the rest of the night :/

we talked pre game.

also
VOTE: serra

We already knew the neighbours didn't have day talk, so kindly fuck off.

This is what caught scum looks like

How about you quote me that tidbit where Mantis said they had pregame talk, cause when I read the game WORD-FOR-WORD twice I must have missed it both times. Maybe you just thought he did because it was in you scum QT or something.

>I quote where she said she talked to Wis pre game.
>You quote that post and ask me where she said that.

Whiskey it is.

[FakeGod]

@Waynegg: please shut up and read the game.

@Mantis: Not really

Wisdom hasn't commented much, if at all , about you recently. Plus he may have talked to u before d1?

Sorry phone access only for the rest of the night :/

we talked pre game.

also
VOTE: serra

We already knew the neighbours didn't have day talk, so kindly fuck off.

This is what caught scum looks like

How about you quote me that tidbit where Mantis said they had pregame talk, cause when I read the game WORD-FOR-WORD twice I must have missed it both times. Maybe you just thought he did because it was in you scum QT or something.

goddamn it Wayne, Serra just quoted it for you. Look at your post.

[Bert]

I say that people vastly overestimate how good they are at reading others. If without assigning subjective "probabilities" there's an objectively optimal course of action, that should trump reads.

I don't much care for what mantis is currently saying, to be honest. She's either caught scum or wrongly accused townie, either of which will lead to flailing.

I'm concerned about what the people not involved think.

OK. I get it.

There is no RIGHT move here, you said OPTIMAL

is that RIGHT? BEST?

[Natirasha]

Goddammit, Mara, I've been sitting here all day waiting for you to get here. I see you in chat, come on.

[serrapaladin]

If I didn't have you, FG...

[FakeGod]

Serra, pass me some of that whiskey.

Please.

[serrapaladin]

Nati, if you weren't involved, can you see where the positive judgement about lynching mantis comes from?

[serrapaladin]

That "positive" should probably read "positivistic", as in not normative.

[serrapaladin]

I say that people vastly overestimate how good they are at reading others. If without assigning subjective "probabilities" there's an objectively optimal course of action, that should trump reads.

I don't much care for what mantis is currently saying, to be honest. She's either caught scum or wrongly accused townie, either of which will lead to flailing.

I'm concerned about what the people not involved think.

OK. I get it.

There is no RIGHT move here, you said OPTIMAL

is that RIGHT? BEST?

That's likelihood. If you're in this position 100 times, lynching mantis will have better results than lynching desp. I trust stats more than reads, particularly when some of those reads come from scum.

[Bert]

Goddammit, Mara, I've been sitting here all day waiting for you to get here. I see you in chat, come on.

I know...I've spoken to her today in chat too so that's why I came friggin in hoping she'll notice I'm HERE

She's leaving me hanging seriously

Serra, pass me some of that whiskey.

Please.

If I didn't have you, FG...

See this is why I want to kill you, you are not passing me ANY whiskey or love. Forget you

Yeah, I'm lost and Wisdom's not here in my ear.

[Bert]

That's likelihood. If you're in this position 100 times, lynching mantis will have better results than lynching desp. I trust stats more than reads, particularly when some of those reads come from scum.

So optimal play here is to disregard what I'm feeling gut-wise and go for what yields better results percentage-wise?

[waynegg]

If you think blah blah blah, I think you may need to reconsider how you play this game.

I love when scum say this to me every game

Clarification since you skimmed over it: you talking to Mantis about their QT was fine. You not following up on it when FG asked and Wisdom confirmed they didn't have day talk wasn't so fine.

Question: why do you only get envolved with the game and make longpost 1) when you're facing heat and 2) with the sole intention of saving yourself?

[Mantisdreamz]

Wayne, can you explain again what exactly you're saying in 2723?

I have literally no idea what you're talking about. Like in any of your posts.

Sure

On Mantis

Mantis slipped that he and Wisdom talked in their QT. keep in mind this was D1.

The game was a day start game

FakeGod asked if they had day talk

Wisdom said they didn't

Since it was a day start game, and the neighbors don't have day talk, they couldn't have talked privately to each other at that point.

On Serra

Serra is the one who asked about the neighbors' QT that spurred the comments from Mantis

When FG asked Wisdom if the duo had day talk and Wisdom said they didn't, Serra should have been all over Mantis's previous comment and didn't

we had pre-game chat you dork

[serrapaladin]

If desp is scum, he is of course the best lynch, but I'm wrong about my reads a lot and I'm sure you are too. You need to be more than 50% certain of Desp being scum for his lynch to be the better option, and I think that's a vast overestimate of town's ability to read people.

[Bert]

Question: why do you only get envolved with the game and make longpost 1) when you're facing heat and 2) with the sole intention of saving yourself?

This is a great point. He only posts when he's in jeopardy. I've been trying to reach out to him ALL GAME LONG since D1 ended.

It has been MY GAME IS BUSY, all that

and he tells me to knock it off

THANK YOU for bringing this up

If desp is scum, he is of course the best lynch, but I'm wrong about my reads a lot and I'm sure you are too. You need to be more than 50% certain of Desp being scum for his lynch to be the better option, and I think that's a vast overestimate of town's ability to read people.

Is 50% arbitrary? :/

[Mantisdreamz]

Why is everyone saying that I'm in a tunnel?

cause you are. your pet theory, when you came into the thread, was that Nat was scum.

[waynegg]

@Waynegg: please shut up and read the game.

@Mantis: Not really

Wisdom hasn't commented much, if at all , about you recently. Plus he may have talked to u before d1?

Sorry phone access only for the rest of the night :/

we talked pre game.

also
VOTE: serra

We already knew the neighbours didn't have day talk, so kindly fuck off.

This is what caught scum looks like

How about you quote me that tidbit where Mantis said they had pregame talk, cause when I read the game WORD-FOR-WORD twice I must have missed it both times. Maybe you just thought he did because it was in you scum QT or something.

>I quote where she said she talked to Wis pre game.
>You quote that post and ask me where she said that.

Whiskey it is.

So you did. Talking pregame would suggest night start. This isn't night start. Thanks for pointing that out for me. Now I need to rethink you.

P_A, momara... Where are you?

[serrapaladin]

Question: why do you only get envolved with the game and make longpost 1) when you're facing heat and 2) with the sole intention of saving yourself?

I get involved with this game when it's interesting. How am I currently facing heat or saving myself? I'm not getting lynched today. If this were true, I should be less active now than ever. I was bored yesterday because the first half was Wisdom repeating the same point over and over, and overall reads just weren't very well thought out. At the end of D1 there was a concrete reason for me to engage which was agreeing on a DL lynch.

Pregame talk in no way suggests a night start...

[serrapaladin]

Is 50% arbitrary? :/

Well, we're choosing to lynch between two people, aren't we?

[Bert]

So you're like Nat in that you just lurk/coast when you're disinterested with what's going on...

Is that always true of you

No, Serra, more people than yesterday on D2 are calling you scum. Even though you're not a target today, if you don't defend yourself now, you will be in the coming days...

So no, NOT ok

[waynegg]

That "positive" should probably read "positivistic", as in not normative.

So basically go with gut because everything else is rubbish?

[serrapaladin]

That "positive" should probably read "positivistic", as in not normative.

So basically go with gut because everything else is rubbish?

Quite the opposite, actually.

Spoiler: