Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[Amrun]

@LnGrr:

The cdb kill is wifom, but there are lots of potential reasons for it. Let me lay down a few:

-they aren't afraid of your "doc" assuming it's true because they are not the basilisk kill
-they were particularly threatened by cdb; he is a good player and town was listening to him (though, of note, town listening to him on marquis led to a mislynch, making this SLIGHTLY less likely but still very reasonable esp considering our strong alliance)
-cdb was onto scum; if we assume that you are town, that indicates Stubbs the most
-there is scum in the two joats and they didn't want to hand up their buddy on a silver platter
-there is scum in the joats and they wanted to lend credibility to cdb's theory that both joats could be town
-there isn't scum in the two joats and wifom
-they WERE scared of your doc because they ARE the basilisk kill and decided to go for a guaranteed kill instead (which would make more sense to kill you, and if you live much longer I hope town takes note of this)
-particularly afraid of the organically forming town bloc and/or cdb's reputation

Some of these options are mutually exclusive, and not all of them are true. Perhaps it's none of the above, but I think at least a few of them were factors.

But those are the possibilities as I see it. It indicates a few things to me as being MOST likely:

-Scum are more likely to be among the more inexperienced players in the game most easily intimidated by cdb
-many of these reasons (though not all) have Stubbs being scum as a common factor, but not in so obvious way as to be a likely frame job

That, and Stubbs' own scummy play and circumspect claim, mean that Stubbs is easily the strongest candidate for lynch today (in my mind).

Lngrr, I'd still like you to clarify your claim.

P-edit: yes - though if there really were two joats, scum would have an rb probably. In any case, Stubbs is scummy as fuck and has claimed to have squandered his only ability-with-a-result. I really don't think his claim fits into the other claims, and I feel pretty confident that it's a lot more likely that you and Jason are town rather than you and Jason being scum together and Stubbs being town. Plus Stubbs is scummy OBV.

[Amrun]

Oh, I forgot a reason!

-Scum were PR hunting and thought cdb dropped a pr tell. IF both joats & lngrr are town, this is almost definitely not true, but the kill is odd enough that this is a point in favor of at least one of these being scum.

And I did forgot to add also that Stubbs' claim is even more unlikely to be true if lngrr is town -- way too much doc power for a one-kill (apparently) mini. So in essence Stubbs is double counter claimed, IMO. But his roles were more powerful so if he WERE town, scum was more likely to go for him last night, so it was better to leave him alive. And he's not dead.


Sorry for disjointed thoughts; trying to get back into mafia in general after a health break.

[Amrun]

Oh, if both Stubbs and Jason do turn out to be town, then that's a scum point for p_a or possibly rach, because it reminds me of the the strategy scum used last HP game leaving the masons alive. This is paranoid, I know, but I can't shake it.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was actually leaning Jason as scum more than Stubbs based on his pushing LngrrrrR as having insider info which was very similar to what he did to JKLM in this game. But I am reconsidering Stubbs. I suspect Penguin even more based on her "JOATS could be scum-scum" theory which was rather absurd from a town POV and looked liked scum trying to get a mislynch even if their partner is lynched first.

[fferyllt]

@Amrun re the 2-joats, it's my impression of site meta that keeps bringing me back to thinking there could be 2 town joats. I've played several games where claimed town roles caused skepticism. In one micro game there were two millers. In the AMOL game ThAd's explicit commuter role given all the commute-lite dreamwalkers made his claim look suspect.

The nuance thing, though, I think I agree. Stubbs' claim does have a "one of these things is not like the others" feel to it.

[Amrun]

I don't think it's unilaterally out of the question that there are two joats in a game. I just don't think context supports the idea that that's the situation here.

[LnGrrrR]

@Amrun,

Not sure how much I can reword it without getting mod killed.

If Basilisk is alive, I can try to protect against the Basilisk kill. If I do so successfully, that player is tree stumped, and I lose my protect. If I don't protect successfully, I can keep trying.

If Basilisk is dead, I am a regular one-use Doctor.

That's the closest I think I can get.

[penguin_alien]

Prod dodge; catching up now.

[penguin_alien]

Penguin is playing to her scum-meta. I am going to read a few more games to verify before posting my entire case which might take a while.

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

This post comes off as not at all determined to find scum.

MSG spends a lot of time asking for other's opinions in a way that comes off as him looking for someone to sheep blame-free.

Except that it wouldn't be "blame-free." The sheep on a wagon will attract just as much scrutiny as those that provided reasoning or instigated the wagon.

He almost never gives opinions on other people's play;

Not true.
331, he says that JasonWazza is the most objectively scummy based on his evasive responses.
387, he says he doesn't like Jason's play and has his doubts about ffery and syryana.
433, he attempts to sort out the power roles, gives his opinion on each of them, and votes Stubbs.
502, he speculates that ffery not voting could be linked to the basilisk
532, he tells ffery that he wants to know why she has a townread on Syryana despite his low activity.

instead he asks them to see what they think of said people. I'd quote it from his ISO, but it's an easy read for anyone who cares to do so.

VOTE: MSG

There is no reason to believe that asking others for their reads is more likely to come from scum than town. Townies do it all the time. There is a clear town-motivation to do it: to gain a read not only on the target but on the player giving their opinion of the target when the target flips.

I'll give you that he expresses his dislike of Jason's play. After that, flavor speculation, some idea that fferyllt isn't voting because of the basilisk(?) which he doesn't explain and frankly I don't get, and asking someone else about their opinion on a player without any speculation of his own. Yes, such questions in making others commit to reads do give us something to work from if one of the involved players flip, but he's not leaving any such trail himself.

Since then he posted a reads list--great, but 7 of 10 are uncertain and blatantly uncommitted. One is town on you, his now-defender, one on a doc claim that revealed the basilisk earlier than scum would want to, and one is the same scum read as at the start of the game. Looks scummy to me.

I don't think scum-Amrun would go on at such length about scum motivations for the NK for fear of letting something slip--town read.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Since then he posted a reads list--great, but 7 of 10 are uncertain and blatantly uncommitted.

One is town on you, his now-defender

, one on a doc claim that revealed the basilisk earlier than scum would want to, and one is the same scum read as at the start of the game. Looks scummy to me.

Why does this make him scummy in the slightest? He posted his reads-list

before

I defended him which makes my defense irrelevant to his reads list.

[StubbsKVM]

Catch up will have to wait until tomorrow at best.

[RachMarie]

I was already suspicious of both JOATs being town and of the two, Stubbs claim seemed more out there. On top of that he states he was role blocked? And he did not say who he targeted either.

I am not buying it.


VOTE: Stubbs

[RachMarie]

I also find the level of claims and partial claims a bit unbelievable in a game that is not role madness.

[Toomai]

I also find the level of claims and partial claims a bit unbelievable in a game that is not role madness.

Theme games are often a bit more power-heavy than normal games.

I know I said I was going to vote JW, but the Stubbs claim seems wronger and wronger the more I think about it. It just doesn't fit, not in flavour nor with LnGrrrR's claim (which is much more believable). Besides, even though JW is being unhelpful, his claim is still reasonably believable.

Vote: StubbsKVM

[RachMarie]

I do understand that, however they still have to be balanced. 2 JOATs, plus the other claims and so on seems awfully town sided.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am just going to reveal since some of the setup spec seems to be based on assuming that my role is actually useful. I am Professor Lockhart, Hogwarts aligned fruit vendor. I am fairly useless. Each night, I pass a piece of fruit to a player. It doesn't do anything but I am required to do this each night. I assume that the player will know that they received a fruit but I am not sure. I asked Nexus to verify and I'll get back on this.

I figured I'd try to draw the nightkill by pretending it was something important but I'd rather not have misinterpreted setup info leading to potential mislynches.

[LnGrrrR]

@F-16, it might not be useless. Hard to say right now.

@Rach, you are our flavor guru, anything about fruit?

[JasonWazza]

Lockhart and being useless, sounds about right.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Some things about Stubbs strike me as very genuine while others don't align.

For instance, the way he said he tried to investigate Amrun because he couldn't get a read on her. It matches perfectly with his null read on Amrun which culminated in a slight scumread towards the end of the day while many others still townread Amrun. Since he claims to be roleblocked and isn't actually going to clear anyone, what is the scum motivation to not just say he investigated someone suspicious or one of his scumreads instead of taking potential flack for investigating a near-universal townread? But from a town POV, he could be trying to investigate someone he was paranoid about.

On the other hand, his behavior is scummy, the lack of contributions is scummy, and his claim really doesn't fit.

Filch fits with JOAT since he does a lot of miscellaneous work in the castle. Nick fits as the special kind of doc as Justin sees the basilisk through him. Lockhart is definitely useless. But Colin acting to protect Harry from "accusations" is definitely factually wrong. There is no point in the book where he protects Harry from any sort of accusations - if anything he gossips about Harry being the heir of Slytherin to fellow first years. Also, if the justification is for a protective role, why roleblock, doc, and cop? The justification would make sense for just a doc.

Another thing to consider is that if Nexus is providing fake-claims, scum would have some good ones.

In the scenario where Stubbs is scum, he would be run up to L-1, ask the mod for a JOAT claim for his Colin Creevey character, and claim it hoping to buy himself one more day. He'd then claim roleblocked so as to not confirm anyone. But why would his scumteam let him ask for JOAT as a fake-claim? I can't think of anything that would fit Colin exactly.

Amrun is right though that we are essentially looking at two doc-type roles with LngrrrR and Stubbs and that is quite unlikely in a game where there is only one factional kill.

[MSG]

...
Since then he posted a reads list--great, but 7 of 10 are uncertain and blatantly uncommitted. One is town on you, his now-defender, one on

a doc claim that revealed the basilisk earlier than scum would want to

, and one is the same scum read as at the start of the game. Looks scummy to me...

how would you know what scum wants?

[Amrun]

And he did not say who he targeted either.

He did claim to target me, but later and not initially.

[MSG]

Whenever I look back at the d1 posts I'm inclined to go back to my original read on the 2 JOATs. Although I don't like the way he plays, JasonWazza was a lot more forthcoming about his JOAT powers and abilities (post 310.) StubbsKVM has ignored all questions to expand on the "1-shot roleblock, 1-shot doc and 1-shot cop" claim (post 257.) No detail about the claimed roleblock (post 472,) but it does provide a convenient excuse for having no result.

Am I flip-flopping? Yeah, I suppose, but it seems to me most likely that 1 of the 2 JOATs is not town. (More likely than both being town, which is more likely than both are lying scum.) I just can't see how we could have the 3 town power roles in a 13-player game. Scum would have to have some serious firepower to balance it out.

I think I just reached the same conclusion as Toomai and RachMarie. VOTE: StubbsKVM

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can't get around the fact that Stubbs claim is factually wrong. I'll go with a Stubbs lynch. I think he is at L-2 right now.

[fferyllt]

I want to hear from Syr before we end this game day.

[Amrun]

I can't get around the fact that Stubbs claim is factually wrong. I'll go with a Stubbs lynch. I think he is at L-2 right now.

What do you mean by "factually wrong?"