Xenogears Mafia (Game Over)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4350 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:24 am

ftl wrote:What do you think about how the kills and claims have been going?

also i think the kills were more likely to be for reasons other than targeting PRs. for the most part. mastin might have been aiming at a PR.

SoS was pretty much universally being read as town. and given mala was in their scum reads, if BRO is also scum, that could be a reason they were killed. BnB was influential. i dunno, i personally would have let them live if i were scum, because majiffy seems more like a hindrance to town than a help, but whatever.

mastin kill could have been partially a shot at a potential PR and partially because he'd narrowed down the scum team a lot. i dunno.

playing the NK wifom game seems kinda fucking dumb.

about as dumb as playing the "guess which PR is lying" game

Faster Than Light · Post Post #4351 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:26 am

In post 4347, Antihero wrote:
In post 4344, Faster Than Light wrote:@Antihero: I think that scum have ignored the Innocent Child because he's
not a threat to them
. It's the only reason I can see for Notscience to not be killed right away.
I think that answers your question about why the soft-claimers have been ignored...

But by looking at the claims, there's Vig, Supersaint, Neighborizer, Cop, PGO, VanillaCop, BP, and whether or not they are one-shot is completely called into question given that's already been lied about so far.

At the very least, I'd think scum would kill me, or the Cop, or the Neighborizer. I could see some reasoning to keeping the Vig, Supersaint, PGO, BP, and IC around.

In post 4345, Antihero wrote:
In post 4341, Faster Than Light wrote:There's plenty of things that could still make Mac's cop-clear not truthful. For instance, if the cop isn't a cop, or if the copping was redirected, or if Mac is a PR that investigates as town, or...
I'm telling the truth.
We're not lynching Mac on the ~1/1000000* chance that venmar was redirected.
"Neighborizing Godfather?", you suggest lynching mac on the chance that this role exists?

We're not lynching Mac, Varsoon. Deal with it.

*note: I pulled this number out of my ass, but I do know that the chances of it are really low

Or he's just Scum with you.
Or he's just Godfather and someone made you neighbors with him (I am right in thinking you're neighbors together, right?) (That's some wave-existence contact with Zohar shit right there)
Or you're right and I should back off.

However, his play is suspicious to me, and I'm not going to cross my arms and deal with it because a CLAIMED cop CLAIMED to have gotten an innocent read on a CLAIMED neighborizer.

@Zmuffin: Hm.
So, what line of inquiry do we take?
I agree, I don't like fumbling with -why- scum killed who they did, but I'm really curious about the density of claimed PRs. It's unsettling.
Your breakdown of the day-by-day makes sense, but, again, I don't know why some of us have lived this long.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4352 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:29 am

i'll tell you what...

if we start hitting more than one town player in {nacho, desp, AJ, BRO} then i'll start working with you and trying to figure out who among the rest of the players we should be wary of.

as of right now, i don't have a reason to suspect the players outside this pool.

trying to guess why scum killed who they killed seems fruitless right now.

Faster Than Light · Post Post #4353 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:35 am

Furthermore, how sure are we that there's a traitor in this game?

Because if there's a traitor, then I'm -really- suspicious of the Cop claim, the PGO claim, and all of AJ's play so far.

AJ's is most suspect, because he brought it up (right?) and spent a lot of time talking about it. To me, that seems like him waving a big flag saying, "I KNOW THERE IS A TRAITOR BECAUSE I AM IT, SCUM TEAM, PLEASE RECOGNIZE", but I've also read on the wiki that the traitor is someone who, when killed, joins the scum team. Venmar's play, especially lines like "IF YOU'RE SCUM PLEASE TARGET ME KTHX" really make me think he was begging to be shot (recruited in this case) but not lynched. A Cop claim fulfills the same sort of thing.

Agh, maybe I should just ignore it completely. It's just making me more confused and paranoid about players and their claim/plays.

P-Edit:
@Zmuffin: Then I'm working with you, since I want to get to the bottom of this. I am really suspicious of Nacho, Desp, and AJ right now. Less so of BRO, to be honest.

Do you think that Nacho is a Goon or VT? Furthermore, what do you make of his post where he didn't claim his role when I asked him to? (for context, look around post 3622)

UNVOTE:

notscience · Post Post #4354 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:48 am

In post 2464, borkjerfkin wrote:
Votecount 1.24 (Final)

[11]
RachMarie
(zMuffinMan, Desperado, Nachomamma8, Ghostlin,
BeautyAndTheBeast
, Aj The Epic,
Sound of Silence
, Andrius, Trust Fund, Saki, BROseidon)

[4] Andrius (
Malakittens
,
RachMarie
, Faster Than Light, TiphaineDeath)
[3]
nickthename
(
mastin2
, Mutleyddmc,
notscience
)
[1] BROseidon (Mac)
[1]
mastin2
(
nickthename
)
[1] TiphaineDeath (Venmar)

With 21 alive, it is 11 to lynch.

A Lynch has been reached. Scene incoming.

In post 3689, borkjerfkin wrote:
Votecount 2.9 (Final)

[10]
nickthename
(Nachomamma8, BROseidon, Aj The Epic, Trust Fund,
notscience
,
BeautyAndTheBeast
, Mutleyddmc, Mac, Desperado, Faster Than Light)

[4]
Malakittens
(Ghostlin, nickthename,
mastin2
, zMuffinMan)
[2] BROseidon (
Malakittens
, Venmar)
[1] Mac (TiphaineDeath)
[1] Andrius (Andrius)

With 18 alive, it is 10 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

A lynch has been reached. Scene Incoming.

In post 4254, borkjerfkin wrote:
Votecount 3.7 (Final)

[9]
Malakittens
(BROseidon, zMuffinMan,
mastin2
, Ghostlin, Aj The Epic, TiphaineDeath, Nachomamma8, Desperado, Mac)

[1] Aj The Epic (waynegg)
[1] BROseidon (dopog)

[5] Not Voting (
Malakittens
,
notscience
, Trust Fund, Andrius, Faster Than Light)

With 16 alive, it is 9 to lynch.

A lynch has been reached. Scene in a bit.

VOTE: Dopog

(I might be mixing up replacements)

his slot has been off the leading wagons ALL GAME. But, he wasn't on the wagon of 4/5 with two other scum.

I'm confident Andy is town now purely based on D1 (unless it's some bizarre doublebus thing.)

I'm rethinking my TF townread based on their location on every wagon thus far. They're always towards the end of the wagon (except mala's wagon where they were voteless)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4355 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:49 am

@ftl,

there's no reason to think there's a traitor in this game. that was something aj brought up because he apparently thinks that a 1-shot town BP means there's a traitor in the game. which, as many players have already pointed out, is faulty logic.

venmar(antihero) is not a traitor. that i am certain of. the only possible way that could make sense is if went through venmar's ISO and paid special attention to venmar's crumbs, and figured out a lot of shit that would be pretty fucking amazing to figure out after replacing in over night as a traitor. he could be factional scum and they planned it, but i doubt this. his play looked town, and his crumbing and the PGO claim were consistent with cop play.

and yeah, i think nacho could be a goon (otherwise, i wouldn't still be voting him and i wouldn't have suggested that i seriously doubt all the scum have PRs). i don't think anything of him refusing to claim. that's fairly a fucking standard thing to do, regardless of alignment.

@ns,

you're doing vca wrong.

notscience · Post Post #4356 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:50 am

Then explain how to do it.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4357 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:52 am

fuck it, i didn't want to put effort into today, but i might do my own VCA later.

you should be looking at other major votecounts, not just the lynch votecounts, and you're missing a lot of context.

Mac · Post Post #4358 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:52 am

voting cop-confirmed town is silly at the best of times but I'm going to out my claim now.

the reason i asked is I tracked you to trust fund last night and I was hoping the story matched the result. it does, but we have two cops claimed? not gonna lie, this sounds like a fake claim especally given that you visited someone who had already claimed they were not vanilla.

Trust Fund · Post Post #4359 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:57 am

Hmmm.... I smell a mass claim today given that all the town reads have claimed and most scum suspects have yet to.....

Mac · Post Post #4360 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:58 am

vote FTL

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4361 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:03 am

Spoiler:

i need to colour shit in and talk about this but a couple things you're ignoring, ns:

- there were two wagons main wagons that popped up to counter the RM wagon (andrius and nick). we know andrius had two confscum on it and a lot of conftown on it. we also know that nick had a lot of conftown on it and no confscum on it. so where were the scum here? my guess for a while has been that scum were bussing RM (i tried to get people to talk about this D2, and D3, but nobody wanted to)
- where were the scum on/off the nick wagon D2? it stalled for a long time, suggesting there were already a lot of scum on it, and we've already had one scum flip in the players off the wagon. at the very most there's 1 more off the nick wagon, but i'd be willing to bet all of the remaining scum were on it.

there are some other things i want to look at, too (like the mastin and TD wagons D1, although my current theory is that there may not have been any scum on the TD wagon... food for thought, though)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4362 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:06 am

i don't see why there can't be two "cops" in the game, given how limited both roles actually are.

Faster Than Light · Post Post #4363 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:30 am

In post 4358, Mac wrote:voting cop-confirmed town is silly at the best of times but I'm going to out my claim now.

the reason i asked is I tracked you to trust fund last night and I was hoping the story matched the result. it does, but we have two cops claimed? not gonna lie, this sounds like a fake claim especally given that you visited someone who had already claimed they were not vanilla.

This is the most awkward shift to voting me, especially since

I've got crumbs and soft-claims since D1.
My play matches up. Why would I be so belligerent about having Nacho be a part of my gambit otherwise? At that point, I knew he wasn't a PR. I was originally going to VanillaCop Nick as well, then realized my ability was non-consecutive and that it didn't much matter since no one wanted to go with my gambit. I originally investigated Nacho because I was paranoid about his play and I would be especially worried if he was an unclaimed PR that everyone was town-reading. Instead, it's the opposite--he's a claimed non-PR that a lot of people have as scum.

I investigated Trust Fund on N3 because I'm really suspicious of the slot. After his earlier claim, I started to wonder if that claim was a lie in order to seem town. I wanted to verify that TF was actually a PR, and if he wasn't, I was going to drill them today. I've been suspicious of the slot for awhile, and I still am, but I don't really have PR-based evidence to make a case so much as I have interaction and speculation based on play so far.

I'm non-consecutive, so I can't really confirm my role further than this until D6.

Antihero, can you cop every night? Are you an alignment cop as I assume or is there anything different/unique about your cop-powers?

-V

TiphaineDeath · Post Post #4364 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:30 am

VOTE: nacho

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4365 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:36 am

@ftl,

your reasoning for investigating TF doesn't really make a lot of sense, given the fact you think scum is full of PRs. either TF is town and told the truth about his PR, or TF is scum (which would mean you think he has a PR?)

seems like a waste when you could have used it on someone like desperado.

also, you should really read the game. antihero claimed that he no longer has the ability to investigate. read the start of this day phase properly.

Faster Than Light · Post Post #4366 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:42 am

Mac, can you see why I'm skeptical of Antihero's cop-claim, especially since it's limited and could only cop until it caught two innocents? It's awfully convenient that Antihero is a cop that we have no way of confirming as a cop.

I could fully see a scum player (even traitor) 'confirming' two town (or even scum-buddies) while claiming in the same way Antihero did.

More than that, though, I could see there being two limited cops (me as non-consecutive VanillaCop & Antihero as 2-Town-then-useless Cop) in a setup with a small handful of PR-based scum.

That's why I'm suspicious of you and Antihero.

Not enough to damn you to the hells, but enough to seriously consider spending time in your ISO's.

P-EDIT:

@zMuffin: I'm reading right, just skeptical.
I wanted evidence to pin on TF. If TF was lying about having a PR, it'd be damning. As it stands, I think the scum team has plenty of PRs, but I doubt they are -all- power roles (hence why I am suspicious of Nacho). I was trying to use my power more like a lie-detector than anything else. How is Vanilla Cop traditionally used? I don't think it'd do us much good to just VC unclaimed people, but, at this stage, maybe it is.

Faster Than Light · Post Post #4367 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:43 am

In post 4364, TiphaineDeath wrote:VOTE: nacho

Why?

Just because you've been 'cleared' by a claimed cop doesn't mean you can vote sans articulation.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4368 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:48 am

it should be used like a lie detector, but i would be VCing unclaimed players. with a massclaim looming, i'd be on the looking to catch scum PRs fake-claiming VT or possibly goons fake-claiming PRs. you're more likely to catch a fake-claim in an unclaimed player than in someone who has already claimed (especially if they claimed unnecessarily, like all of the claims so far have). but this is theory talk, and not really important.

also, if you want, i can go back over venmar's posts and point out all of the places he crumbed his role. i have most of them already because i pmed bork about it N2 when i ranted to him about my thoughts on the game. i am very sure that he was either what he claims to be, or he's factional scum (i.e. not a traitor) who planned it with his partners. and i'm leaning towards the former based on his play making sense as town and also based on how fucking elaborate it would have to be for venmar to have co-ordinated that as factional scum.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #4369 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:13 am

In post 4300, Andrius wrote:get this
my name is HAMMER
and im a supersaint

come at me

Then if someone who hammers doesn't die, they are confirmed scum, no?
Does the last townie on the wagon die, or no?

In post 4315, Ghostlin wrote:I would prefer Nacho, since if he's on the scum team, he's their fucking strongest player and we need to kick that out from under them.

There's also not an actual reason to lynch me. There will be cases on Desperado, AJ, and BRO by tomorrow.

In post 4317, Ghostlin wrote:Seriously, we need to make today the shortest day on record before scum find their bearings.

When the game is PoE'd, you need one day to solidify townreads and make sure what you're doing is right. Not quicklynch.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #4370 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:15 am

And maybe Andrius. I'm not sure that a supersaint who only kills town would be called a supersaint, considering every other role with modifications has a new name.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4371 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:31 am

nacho wrote:There's also not an actual reason to lynch me.

actually, apart from PoE from town reads, there's some stuff i don't like about your play. for example, the pushes from you have felt rather weak and the few times i talked to you about the nick wagon, it seemed like you knew it was shit but you didn't care.

maybe after sleep i'll pull up the quotes that specifically made me think this.

nacho wrote:I'm not sure that a supersaint who only kills town would be called a supersaint, considering every other role with modifications has a new name.

when did you stop thinking andy was obvtown and why?

also, you believe he's been faking the softclaiming stuff he's done since..... basically the end of D1 all through to today?

Antihero · Post Post #4372 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:34 am

In post 4363, Faster Than Light wrote:Antihero, can you cop every night? Are you an alignment cop as I assume or is there anything different/unique about your cop-powers?

Yes, it was an alignment cop. And now i can't cop at all, i'm pretty much a VT; the ability to keep my power was contingent on getting guilty's. No, my power was not compulsive.

If I got 2 innocent results, I lost the ability (which venmar did).

zMuffinMan · Post Post #4373 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:37 am

oh, and in addition to the times i talked to you about nick, i remember there was also stuff about your read on venmar, and there was that spiel to bnb about how he'd had enough time to push the nick wagon and now you were gonna get serious, etc etc

ISO · Post Post #4374 (ISO) » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:41 am

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