Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[notscience]

I'm going to catch up to this later

[fferyllt]

Ok. What was the purpose of providing that list in reply to my question if it's doesn't apply to Kaze' play so far?

[Garmr]

The list was to show my thought processes
but if you want me to put Kaze in it I will be happy to.
Kaze-

Overly defensive- 280, 301,302 I believes these are very emotionally over defensive

Fluffpost- It hasn't been so much fluff it's where he put it. Post 277 in response to the smack down Sleepy laid on him. and post 299 after another of sleepys awesome smackdowns. It just like he wants to draw away attention from the reasons his in the argument.

Opportunistic -I believe his votes before me where also pretty opportunistic. Highlight the aero and Maestro wagon here please.

Reasoning doesn't look town orientated-
Going for a lurker wagon. Jumping on the Aero wagon with little reason this ties in to the opportunistic one as well. Also the chainsaw with notscience.

Hypocritical-
Going to steal plums reasoning for this post 27 and 32 clash with each other. He doesn't know what to do with miller claims yet they have to be scum orientated or town. He only changes his tone after someone else says something. Could of used it to Cause confusion.





Trying to use reasons I haven't listed before. I always keep a few held back to see if someone thinks the same as me and to encourage a little scum hunt when I bring people into the spotlight.

[LolWagons]

Hey guys, before anyone goes digging this is just Slaxx on an alt. The alts name makes me really happy and I dont feel confident enough to grace the old slaxx account with my presence yet. Expect a post later tonight.

[SleepyKrew]

omg hi Slaxx

I have nothing else to contribute at this juncture because my brain hurts too much

[Maestro]

Yeah sorry I'll say pitoli can replace me - I don't have time for this right now on top of tons of other stuff going on

[pitoli]

Whew, two replacements in 24 hours...

Empire replaces Maestro. Thanks Empire!

[Empire]

Hey guys, just checking in for now, should be fully caught up with the thread either late tonight or tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

Unvote

Hi Empire.

[SleepyKrew]

omg hi Empire

[LolWagons]

Spoiler: PbP, If you care

#12>

The miller claim is probably town mainly because of post #18. The logic there may or may not be right but the part about TvT ending with a bad result either way seems genuine.

# 36>

Is a town post. So is the follow up.

#47>

Not for sure what to make of that lol-L2-wagon, but probably lends credence to Briantown

#57>

Good post by YYR.

Aero wagon was probably a good wagon at that time, though I think I recall getting a townread later on in that slot.

#102>

Thought I was going to be voting Kaze until this post, that "oh wait a minute no he's null" looks genuine

#110 and 111>

Good points by CTD. I like how he reads FF and Kaze as town, I tend to agree that those are my biggest town reads so far. Not sure about NS.

Yeah, CTD callin it like it is. Biggest townread currently.

#118>

Valuable input from maestro

#119/120>

More townposting

#130>

Garm's patience and reiterations reads town to me here

#143>

Pretty much proving CTD's points with this post.

#158>

Ah, this is where I got my SK townread. Okay. I especially like the Spyrex-relevant items. This is SK town.

#164>

Slight town here from Plum

#183>

Spyrex is now a broken record

#200>

GG

#211>

Goodposting, I agree. Brianskies town isn't sounding very good anymore.

I don't like Kaze's responses to SleepyKrew, and I don't like Kaze much as town either.

Page 11 is giving me brain tumors and ulcers. Plum saved it. Forgot CDB existed.

#293>

Is just terrible regardless of aligment.
I honestly can't tell if Kaze is just letting his ego make his play shit or he's purposefully just putting up a wall.

#303>

Idk what to think of this yet but its noteworthy so Im leaving it here for a reminder to myself.

#335>

All I see from spyrex is a list of townreads and opinions on lurkers who haven't done anything, in addition to joining the biggest wagon. I'm not sold.

#347>

this is bad but the worst thing is there IS NO FUCKING VOTE WITH LIKE A POOL OF FOUR PEOPLE TO VOTE WTF IS THIS

#387>

Sigh I give up

the FF/ Gar exchange looks town.


I get the votes on Maestro but I think they'd be better off elsewhere.

Town: SK, CTD, Ffer
Leaning Town: Gar, Plum
Lurkers/Null: CDB, Empire, NS, YYR
Leaning Scum: Kaze, Brian
Scum: Spyrex

Vote: Spyrex

[Empire]

On page 8 but I really want to jot down a few things about Brian's miller claim and some things I'm extrapolating from it (mostly for my own sake but you guys are welcome to comment on it too):
- Scum miller fakeclaims are something that gets planned out in the QT pregame. I think the fact that there was a page 1 mini wagon on him had absolutely nothing to do with the claim (e.g., the miller claim itself was not a reaction to the wagon but something that had been thought out well in advance).
- Right now, I'm inclined towards thinking the claim is fake. I'll explain why once I'm fully caught up with the thread.
- If Brian is scum, I don't think he came up with the miller strat all on his own as he seems to be a newer player. My guess is that, if he's scum, a more experienced player suggested the claim to him and coached him on how to do it ahead of time.
- Brian / CTD are unlikely to be scum together given the strong policy-type push from the latter in the early game (wouldn't make sense for CTDscum to agree to the claim only to strongly push a lynch on him early, especially given the site's general antipathy towards miller claims - he's be committing to a hardbus too early).
- Smudger's ignorance of what a miller is supposed to be in #63 makes me think he's not scum with Brian either.

Heading to dinner now, moving surprisingly quickly through all of this so I'll be getting my big reads wall in sooner than I expected.

[Plum]

His vote was clearly influenced by my prior vote on him. He was practically inactive until I voted him. Not only did he get offended, he all of a sudden pegged me as his #1 scumread after I voted him. Convenient, no? How are you not seeing this yourself? Uh, really?

After you goaded him about his suspicions of you without a vote, did maintaining his suspicions and voting you make a difference? Do you think that was alignment indicative?

To be honest, both Chainsawing and OMGUS are things I think are terribad scumtells but they hold a grain of truth. Scum defending someone - not even necessarily a buddy - can look different than Town defending someone. Scum reacting to pressure/a vote by voting the person suspecting them can look different than reactive Town. In this case, Garmr's hypothetical Kaze/ns scumteam is not remotely something I'd bet on at this point. Don't think he felt threatened though, and the argument seems more shortsighted than bad because artificial because manipulative. Kaze's point seems to be more OMGUS is OMGUS and it's a scumtell guys, okay, it's a scumtell.

I'm so bipolar on CDB I can't even decide. I literally read it once and wanted to pull out a shiv then reread it less than an hour later and thought town. I'm HOPING it doesn't come down to that decision.

One thing from you I'm comfortable with - at least this was exactly how I felt when I first caught up. Otherwise: I hate hate hate that you get away with going all the way to SK is Town with such little scrutiny. Pretty much the only concrete scumhunting-related you'd said in the game to that point was

There Will Be Blood, Aero/SK

, and poof. I guess you gave your explanation for the read change but I'll put it this way: If it had been

you

explaining that the Maestro wagon was lazy and investigating those who were voting him and their motives, I'd have a

drastically

different opinion of you.

Garmr 3395 is super really Town. Fferylt's determined dissection of his Kaze vote is worthy of respect.

Lolwagons, you give me hope for humanity.

#335> All I see from spyrex is a list of townreads and opinions on lurkers who haven't done anything, in addition to joining the biggest wagon. I'm not sold.

G-d bless.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: SpyreX

I think this is a wagon that can and should go today.

[fferyllt]

The list was to show my thought processes
but if you want me to put Kaze in it I will be happy to.
Kaze-

Overly defensive- 280, 301,302 I believes these are very emotionally over defensive

Fluffpost- It hasn't been so much fluff it's where he put it. Post 277 in response to the smack down Sleepy laid on him. and post 299 after another of sleepys awesome smackdowns. It just like he wants to draw away attention from the reasons his in the argument.

Opportunistic -I believe his votes before me where also pretty opportunistic. Highlight the aero and Maestro wagon here please.

Reasoning doesn't look town orientated-
Going for a lurker wagon. Jumping on the Aero wagon with little reason this ties in to the opportunistic one as well. Also the chainsaw with notscience.

Hypocritical-
Going to steal plums reasoning for this post 27 and 32 clash with each other. He doesn't know what to do with miller claims yet they have to be scum orientated or town. He only changes his tone after someone else says something. Could of used it to Cause confusion.





Trying to use reasons I haven't listed before. I always keep a few held back to see if someone thinks the same as me and to encourage a little scum hunt when I bring people into the spotlight.

Thanks. I can see that there's more to your case than originally met the eye a few pages ago.

I have misgivings about this wagon.

[Kazekirimaru]

- Smudger's ignorance of what a miller is supposed to be in #63 makes me think he's not scum with Brian either.

Ignorance is easily faked. Just throwing that out there.

After you goaded him about his suspicions of you without a vote, did maintaining his suspicions and voting you make a difference? Do you think that was alignment indicative?

Not the vote, necessarily. The fact that he started in on me after I voted him was clearly reactive. His vote was escalation.

[LolWagons]

@ffer: Why.

SK, I'm glad you liked my name and I missed you much.

[fferyllt]

It's just really hard for me to imagine such chaotic play from a scum player.

His style has changed a lot since then, but his first scum game at MS was a well done, and pretty tight performance compared to what I'm seeing here.

[LolWagons]

Woah wait are we talking spyrex or Kaze here? I'm talking Spyrex.

[LolWagons]

I see you were talking Kaze, my mistake. I have similiar reservations though not for meta reasons. His early tell about redoing a read seemed really genuine to me but the more his game progressed the more he just seemed completely unwilling to cooperate and play nice with others. It's annoying and its not protown but its not quite enough to vote him.

Spyrex on the other hand, I want to bathe in Spyrexblood. I hope its green.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I was talking about Kaze.

Re Spyrex. I don't see scumhunting, I don't see working with townreads. Buddying in the absence of working on that kind of stuff is unsettling.

[Kazekirimaru]

It's just really hard for me to imagine such chaotic play from a scum player.

His style has changed a lot since then, but his first scum game at MS was a well done, and pretty tight performance compared to what I'm seeing here.

So I can't be scum because my play here sucks.

Appreciate the scrutiny of my wagon but I feel a tad offended. D:

Oh well.

[fferyllt]

It's just really hard for me to imagine such chaotic play from a scum player.

His style has changed a lot since then, but his first scum game at MS was a well done, and pretty tight performance compared to what I'm seeing here.

So I can't be scum because my play here sucks.

Appreciate the scrutiny of my wagon but I feel a tad offended. D:

Oh well.

No offense intended. Town play usually does look more disorganized to me than scum play does even in quite self-contained players.

You seem to be easy to read along that dimension is all.

[fferyllt]

Vote: Spirex

[Empire]

Alright, fully caught up with the thread! Here's a compilation of all my reads with reasoning. I know this thing's rather long and unwieldy but please take the time to go through all of it. Let me know if you have any questions or if you need me to elaborate on anything. As an aside, a lot of people in this game look really town and it feels really nice but there's a lot of TvT-type arguments going on that need to stop ASAP (looking at you, Kaze / SKrew / Garmr / notscience). It's cluttering the thread with a lot of nonsense at this point and the votes could very well be served elsewhere.

TOWN

fferyllt:

Consider this read to be very largely meta based -- from what I'm aware of her meta, she hates being scum and tends to be very lurky / image conscious, which is very unlike her play here. She feels comfortable posting, is generally very engaged with the thread, and has bits of cheekiness that I don't expect her to post as scum (ex: the second line of #66). Another little thing I liked is the way she locked horns with notscience in #215 by telling him to "give it a rest" -- I think, as scum, she'd be more likely to encourage notscience's "false positives" or at least just altogether refrain from talking about it and let town self destruction happen (which was her approach in Xenologue). Her meta analysis in #349 and the level of detail she goes into breaking down Kaze's linguistic falls in line with the meta analysis she loves to do as town and I think she's not as inclined to do as scum (in Xenologue, she basically took my word on LLD's meta without doing any visible work of her own). All in all, would be really surprised if she were scum this game.

Kazekirimaru:

Really not understanding why this dude has votes on him. Pretty much all of his posts and the way he's approached arguments with various players have a "I have the higher moral ground"-type tone to them (ex: "you're being stupid" / "you're just wrong") which is far more likely to come from town than scum -- town are far more likely to have a greater attachment to arguments like the one he's having with SKrew because they want to be right / feel vindicated; scum just see these kinds of back and forths as a way to contribute but as nothing more. His progression from #62 to #100 based on the reasoning he provides in #146 is something that makes A LOT of sense from a player with his experience -- a lot of newer town players do tend to take into account interactions with their scumreads in this fashion / consider what other people have to say. His abrasive playstyle is something I consider a towntell as I'd expect him to conform to expected behavior as scum. His reaction to the wagon + his frustration that people are not listening to him in #337 reads incredibly genuine. The more and more I read this guy's posts, the more depressed I get that he was wagoned to L-2.

notscience:

He's another player who I think has a very abrasive / annoying playstyle and just get this 'ugh' feeling reading through his stuff. That said, his play here fits the skeletal model I have of his townplay (he's another play I'd expect to conform to expectation as scum). He's not afraid of throw down cursory dismissals of suspicion against him (#124) and his repeatedly calling himself obvtown is something that checks out with his townplay in Open 527. I think he'd be a lot more self conscious as scum than to fuck around with posts like #147 / #149. Overall, the abrasive, rough-around-the-edges attitude he displays here reads strongly town.

Plum:

Need to double check the meta of her (from what I remember she's another player who dislikes being scum) but she's shown strong signs of gamesolving given the level of detail behind her reads and her lines of inquiry. Mostly, though, I really like the indignant attitude undercutting all of her posts and the bits of introspection sprinkled throughout her reactions to others (ex: her reaction to Smudger's 63 in her #157 -- "This one really stupid thing is keeping me from voting you and I feel so dirty for that"). I also liked her paranoia of SpyreX in #263 and the way she goes about ruminating over his posts. There's an element of looseness to it that I wouldn't expect from her as scum.

Garmr:

He's another player who feels more invested in the arguments he has against certain players than I'd expect scum with his experience to be. I like the way he stands up to notscience in #125 and his being indignant over notscience calling himself obvtown when he thinks he hasn't done anything worthy of the title reads as genuine. I liked his reaction to Kaze's vote in #303 as it almost feels like he's taking the vote against him to heart which is something I see far more from town. The level of detail he provides for his scumreads on notscience and Kaze reads like legitimate / genuine scumhunting.

SKrew:

He's someone that I don't fully trust myself to read for some reason but I do like a lot of what he's posted. His reaction to the whole argument / line of questioning with Kaze reads very town, particularly with his frustration that Kaze is doing "nothing" with his votes in posts like #207, #209, and #220. I also like the way he calls out SpyreX for the shift of read on his slot, I think he'd have just taken that and ran with it as scum rather than probe into turnaround. I like what I see here but will probably do a meta check whenever I get free time just to be sure.

CTD:

Reading him as town mostly because I think he's playing differently than from what I saw of his scum play in /in-vitational 12. In that game, his votes lacked conviction as he placed them on all of the major wagons of the time with weak / lazy reasoning and he seemed more concerned with following the crowd. The votes he's placed this game have a lot more meat to them and him being shocked early on that people are believing Brian's miller claim wholesale is something I don't really expect from his scum game -- I'd have expected him to drop the issue entirely and move onto something else, not continue to pressure Brian. Need to do a full-on meta check here too, though, as I know he plays a very strong game as scum and I don't remember having read his town games too deeply.

NULL

LolWagons / Smudger:

I had to go over Smudger's ISO a few times to try and get a more firm read and I still feel really conflicted over the slot. I don't like #114 where he questions how people are forming townreads too early as it doesn't read genuine to me and it just feels like he's trying to discredit those reads at the risk of getting boxed in by them later on down the road. His votes on Aeronaut and Maestro do fit the scum-on-the-wagon / "hey we can make this mislynch happen" role given that there's not a whole lot of meat of them. There are also some places where it feels like he's deflecting certain questions by responding with something to the effect of "other people are doing it too" that just rubs me the wrong way. At the same time, some of the things he says do read genuine to me at a gut level -- for example, I really liked his response to SKrew in #178 where he basically says "it's my vote and I do what I want with it". And I do remember his playstyle being hard to read, as some others have mentioned. Hopefully, Slaxx's replace-in will help out here.

CDB:

Liked his entry into the game as that seems consistent with what I remember of his early game play as town, but the fade out really worries me as I know he has a tendency to get lurky / inactive as scum. Expecting more content to hopefully make the slot more readable.

SCUM

SpyreX:

I really disliked his treatment of the miller claim early on in #88 -- his argument that "he's not throwing it up as a shield" makes no sense given that 1) miller claims are mechanically "shields" as it is basically claiming immunity to cop investigations, and 2) Brian

did

initially treat his claim as a shield by telling people to "look elsewhere". He also claims the miller claim is town and wants to win without having to lynch it but then mentions in #335 that it will have to die at some point. The two positions seem mutually exclusive to me. It feels like he's keeping his options open to lynch Brian down the road. I also don't like his progression from AeroSK to Kaze either -- it doesn't make sense for him to feel so confident that Aero is scum to the point where he's willing to hammer that lynch without deliberation (and want that slot's blood all over his face) but then move onto Kaze. In that light, the vote on Kaze feels oppportunistic.

Brian:

I don't like the presentation of the miller claim in #12 with the "look elsewhere" bit on a gut level mostly because it does feel like he's coming into the thread hoping that the ensuing attention on his claim goes away. The main thing that bothers me, though, is that it feels like he's laying the martyr act way to thick -- all throughout his ISO, there's plenty of mentions about how he's ok with being lynched / killed (notable examples include: #18, #43, end of #347). It almost feels like a WIFOMy dare to get him lynched. As far as his scumhunting goes, it's all very surface-level / cursory and I just don't get a sense that he's strongly engaging with the thread.

YYR:

Very weak read here, but I didn't like his cursory mention of the miller claim when he entered the thread in #57. Aside from that, the attacks he's given on Kaze just feels like he's hitting things that look bad on the surface but not aren't actually scummy. Still waiting on more content from him though.

Vote: SpyreX

[Empire]

- Smudger's ignorance of what a miller is supposed to be in #63 makes me think he's not scum with Brian either.

Ignorance is easily faked. Just throwing that out there.

As a general matter, I'd agree, but take a closer look at Smudger's post there -- the fact that he offers a fairly detailed and frankly weird hypothetical of what he expects a miller to be would be fairly hard to fake from someone with his (in)experience who knows hypothetical scumBrian's alignment and that his claim is fake.