A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

[Nautilius]

jesus fucking christ that was draining

[Nautilius]

I can't say now. I will as soon as I can.

You never did this, Zed!

When you do, you'll realize that I am obviously town.

Why?

Eh, Goat on a Raft is still scum,

Why?

I'm really confused about why so many people are saying thinks like Spyrex is bad, but LOL we can forgive him, vote someone else.

It's making me nervous.

Who's saying that? The quickhammer didn't seem remarkable to me.
Disappointing, but not remarkable.

kkb-zed scum pair seems unlikely from his iso

[Garruk Relentless]

Oh my what a number of posts. I'm more than willing to full claim at this point if people want me too--I'd need to check with SSK, though.

Anyways, we did our weekly check in yesterday. Our town block is current {Tierce, Goats, Alfred, Tammy, Benmage}. I'm also advocating ooba-Alch-Nautilus as town, but SSK isn't sure(he had some doubts on Alch on Nautilus, although I suspect this last string of posts will reverse that on Naut, and Alch I'm liking as town mostly since I thought Syr was town and mechanic analysis suggests a similar alignment for him).
The primary points of contention are Cephrir and ooba--one day my partner keeps saying he'll release a case on ooba, so I guess expect that at some point, just know we're in disagreement there(much like Messiah is on our slot). [/endinghydrabus]
Ceph we're just leaning in opposite directions--Tierce has been having this nasty habit of stealing the words right out of my mouth during today, but SSK thinks the post that drew me in his direction(2351) was a towntell, though, so I dunno.

Vote stays on AGar for now.

[ooba]

Come on ooba, just admit your Messiah case is better and stop joining the hammer outrage, it makes you look bad in general.

The Messiah case may look better on paper but in terms of intensity of feeling, I feel much more positive about SpyreX flipping scum than Messiah currently.

It's good to see Naut back

[quadz08]

It's a nulltell but SpyreX could still totally be (and probably is) scum. I don't mind riding stupid hammer rage to kill a hard to lynch SpyreX-scum.

Wow this is awful. Can you explain HOW spyrex totally could be and probably still is scum? You haven't actually presented anything saying why you think Spy is scummy except "he wouldn't have hammered in such a boring way." (So far as I can see, if I'm missing something, please point it out.) Even your gigantic post is full of nothing but townreads, with a bit tacked at the end that says "I'd lynch these three dudes but I ain't tellin' you why."

That said, your gigantic set of posts was a decent start when taken out of the no-case-on-spyrex context, so I'm somewhat of two minds on it.

[kanyeknowsbest]

benmage, peacebringer

How are you feeling about these two reads at the moment?

do not believe either of my town reads on them were wrong. ill have to reevaluate ben at some point but we havent hit that point yet.

[kanyeknowsbest]

benmage, peacebringer

How are you feeling about these two reads at the moment?

ty 4 those posts nacho. im hpapy 2 talk about abt pbringer ne time

[kanyeknowsbest]

i didnt quote that again...

[Eddard Stark]

Day 3, Vc 7

SpyreX (7) -

Tammy, ooba, Zdenek, elleheathen, Goat on a Raft, Messiah Complex, Nautilius

AGar (5) -

Goat on a Raft, Benmage, Garruk Relentless, The Alchemist, Alfred Borden

Garruk Relentless (1) -

AGar

Nautilius (2) -

StupendousMan, quadz08

ooba (2) -

Shadoweh, PrideandJoy

Cephrir (1) -

Tierce

Zdenek (1) -

kanyeknowsbest

Not voting (3)

:Cephrir, SpyreX, SafetyDance

With 21 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

• Deadline Date: 25th of October at 16:05 EDT
  
• Deadline Countdown: (expired on 2013-10-25 04:30:01)
  
• elleheathen is V/la. Sd and AGar are V/la

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding StupendousMan

[Tierce]

It's a nulltell but SpyreX could still totally be (and probably is) scum. I don't mind riding stupid hammer rage to kill a hard to lynch SpyreX-scum.

Wow this is awful. Can you explain HOW spyrex totally could be and probably still is scum? You haven't actually presented anything saying why you think Spy is scummy except "he wouldn't have hammered in such a boring way." (So far as I can see, if I'm missing something, please point it out.) Even your gigantic post is full of nothing but townreads, with a bit tacked at the end that says "I'd lynch these three dudes but I ain't tellin' you why."

That said, your gigantic set of posts was a decent start when taken out of the no-case-on-spyrex context, so I'm somewhat of two minds on it.

This is appalling. What's the problem with Townhunting? And what's your problem with Nautilius's handling of SpyreX when YOU were pushing SpyreX as well?

Done with Cephrir. His reaction to me was unpleasantly Town.

UNVOTE: Cephrir

More sleep, then thinking on this.

[Tierce]

What case on SD, AGar was voting ooba and said SD's list was a null-tell

Looked back and you are correct. If so, then why did Spyrex present it like AGar was using that as a case? Or did Spyrex mean that AGar presenting it as null was, in fact, scummy?

Spyrex also just claimed his role interacts with hammers. He probably saw L-1, saw 'IF HAMMER = USE POWER' and thought 'I'M GOING TO VEGAS'.

This reasoning can go jump off a goddamned bridge. Unless his power is "hammer a dude or two and WIN GAME," it's not worth hammering

someone you cannot possibly have a read on

.

I'm really confused about why so many people are saying thinks like Spyrex is bad, but LOL we can forgive him, vote someone else.

It's making me nervous.

this post is so awful. I agree with the first sentence in theory, but I don't think there are actually many people saying that in practice, so it's basically "this sounds good I'll say it." The second sentence is just fucking terrible. Are the "so many people" saying that all scum? Bad bad bad. (Benmage puts it nicely when he says it's disingenuous.)

Kanye continues to be holy-shit levels of town, and his 2329 point is quite good.

AH AH AH NAUTILIUS WHAT THE FUCK IS YOUR POSTING GOD AGH GET IT OFF GET IT OFF. (Seriously, you come into the thread with "x and y are town, oh and z wants to be town? sure she's town too" and

nothing else

? no fuck that
VOTE: Naut

In what universe is that case on SD 'perfectly valid'? There are some who were on him that were more legit than others, but parroting the volume of scum reads as some kind of magic tell sarcasm font isn't it. I didn't even blink an eye at it catching up.

I'm not 'justifying' it. I had reasons but even if I didn't I probably would have taken it - I'm just sayin after the fact I dont feel bad about it. If it was some kind of really bad wagon I shot through I'd have felt bad, at least. It is what it is. Replace into a hammer early? I'm takin it almost every time. This time it was just even more perfect.

Clarify for me if you thought AGar was calling SD scum or null with what you quoted, please.
Also, show me examples of you taking that opportunity in the past, or expressing willingness to do so. Forgive me if I don't just take your word for it.

oh christ Cephrir's 2348 is just fucking awful. I will be watching that one with interest.

It's a nulltell but SpyreX could still totally be (and probably is) scum. I don't mind riding stupid hammer rage to kill a hard to lynch SpyreX-scum.

Wow this is awful. Can you explain HOW spyrex totally could be and probably still is scum? You haven't actually presented anything saying why you think Spy is scummy except "he wouldn't have hammered in such a boring way." (So far as I can see, if I'm missing something, please point it out.) Even your gigantic post is full of nothing but townreads, with a bit tacked at the end that says "I'd lynch these three dudes but I ain't tellin' you why."

That said, your gigantic set of posts was a decent start when taken out of the no-case-on-spyrex context, so I'm somewhat of two minds on it.

...huh-huh. Yeah, this is terrible.

VOTE: quadz08

[Shadoweh]

To whit: Spy isn't scum

because

he hammered, he's scum because his hammer deprived the town of: setup information via Amrun's claim, Amrun's now-confirmed-town final reads, and most importantly, the potential for us to have

not lynched town yesterday because Arya was probably a power role and few (if any) were actually interested in lynching Amrun to begin with.

Sticking your head in the sand and screaming "NULL!!!!!!!!!!!" is seriously missing the point.

- Des

Everyone is a power role, that's a stupid distinction to make. Running people up until their claimed power isn't cool enough doesn't work in role madness. >_> You're saying we should have waited for the claim, obviously yes. All those reasons the hammer was awful still don't matter because they wouldn't stop someone trolling for hammers. It's still impossible for a town-Spy to have known he was hammering town, so it's not a fair point to hold against someone.

Nautcho, if I was third party you would know, I'd have already gotten myself lynched in a blaze of paranoid glory. You made all those sexy paragraphs around everyone else but all I get is a discount scum rating :<

[quadz08]

This is appalling. What's the problem with Townhunting? And what's your problem with Nautilius's handling of SpyreX when YOU were pushing SpyreX as well?

There is no problem with Townhunting; the problem is with the complete lack of scumhunting (and the scumreads were not presented as PoE either). And what, because he's voting for Spyrex, he's automatically immune from suspicion from me? That's ridiculous, but it's the only way I can parse your second sentence, so if you meant something else, please clarify.

[Cephrir]

It's a nulltell but SpyreX could still totally be (and probably is) scum. I don't mind riding stupid hammer rage to kill a hard to lynch SpyreX-scum.

Wow this is awful. Can you explain HOW spyrex totally could be and probably still is scum? You haven't actually presented anything saying why you think Spy is scummy except "he wouldn't have hammered in such a boring way." (So far as I can see, if I'm missing something, please point it out.) Even your gigantic post is full of nothing but townreads, with a bit tacked at the end that says "I'd lynch these three dudes but I ain't tellin' you why."

That said, your gigantic set of posts was a decent start when taken out of the no-case-on-spyrex context, so I'm somewhat of two minds on it.

Early game townhunting only is very much a thing, and if you don't see scumhunting in there you may need your head examined. Not having a clear opinion on that spate of Naut posts is strange.

Nautcho, if I was third party you would know, I'd have already gotten myself lynched in a blaze of paranoid glory. You made all those sexy paragraphs around everyone else but all I get is a discount scum rating :<

I don't know why Naut thinks you're third party but this argument only makes me suspect he's correct. Tossing "paranoid" in here is a particularly strange thing to do seeing as paranoia is a thing that townies do. Are you really saying you're more paranoid in third party roles than town roles? If so, why?

This is appalling. What's the problem with Townhunting? And what's your problem with Nautilius's handling of SpyreX when YOU were pushing SpyreX as well?

There is no problem with Townhunting; the problem is with the complete lack of scumhunting (and the scumreads were not presented as PoE either). And what, because he's voting for Spyrex, he's automatically immune from suspicion from me? That's ridiculous, but it's the only way I can parse your second sentence, so if you meant something else, please clarify.

"complete lack of scum hunting" + "gave scumreads" = does not compute. If you want expanded reasoning, you could try asking for it instead of whatever the hell this is.

Those Naut posts are a huge relief to me. And not just because the posturing re: me was revoked (he'd probably do that as scum too, though the emphatic-ness with which it was done I do like, since Nacho is fully aware I'm generally not a hard mislynch), the body of work is nice and possibly more effort/towniness than I've seen him put in at once like ever. Will probably discuss said posts in another post, unless I don't feel like it.

[quadz08]

Giving reads is miles different than posting a case, which is really what I meant when I said "scumhunting" (poor word choice on my part).

Why is not having a singular opinion on the Naut posts strange?

[Cephrir]

Because they are so awesomely town. I guess I could understand if you were paranoiaing and thought the whole thing was a really well thought out facade, though I would think you were wrong. I just don't see how anyone's initial reaction to what just happened could possibly be "meh, those sure are some posts".

ooba - I feel in my heart that ooba is town and I'm going to have a hell of a time letting go with it even if I go down this list and I find three more townreads.

Agar's post makes some valid sounding points.

I think scum is less likely to acknowledge the case on them as "valid", especially when they have a perfectly good rebuttal.
I thought his peacebringer case was fucking great.
His idea of why SpyreX hammered is good.

I did not like how D2 ended abruptly. I wanted to take a more active role today in seeing who I want to get lynched lynched. That involves pushing cases on those I want lynched and dissuading people from other votes. If I had thought Agar's L-1 was scummy - I would have mentioned it.

this seemed awesomely genuine

I'm sorry but that's not how the game works - I will use game events and quotes as I see fit. As someone who does not have great rhetoric, if Nautilus has eloquently put why Andruis's early play was a town tell - I will use it.

this reminds me of a cephrir town tell
i'm not sure if it applies to ooba ofc but if he was cephrir i would call this shit town

- A lot of people called Benmage town because of meta reasons. And his play neither had town nor scum vibes for me. And there were times when I thought "Those many people can't be wrong. Weak town pile?". Every single time I came close to doing that, it didn't feel right so kept him in neutral.

also genuine and town as fuck

Ooba has been generally passive, reactive and mostly concerned with his image rather than finding scum. In his first real post, he has two scum reads - quadz and kanye. He votes for one, but he makes no effort to gain traction on either wagon. A pro-town mindset would have him trying to lobby for more votes on those wagons to garner reactions, generate pressure and help divulge more from which he can gather reads from. He has repeatedly made posts which appear to deflect any attempts to garner insight into his reads, which from a town perspective makes no sense, because again - it does nothing to help gather people to your case, and thus, he once again appears to not actually care whether his wagons gain any ground, just that he has a vote cast somewhere. He's trying to make it appear as if he's involved in this game without actually being involved. He's since moved his vote to Shadoweh, who is his new main suspect, but once again done nothing to actually see if that's a viable wagon.

^this case sucks because it completely disregards the subtle ooba hints where he believes his rhetoric isn't entirely up to par^
it also sucks because ooba has made an effort to push wagons and constantly tries to sell them even if he doesn't exaggerate with how awesome they are.

quadz's case is similar and around it there is mostly cheerleading and a horrible lack of good points.
i've come close to being tempted to take ooba out of my townreads, but after that mtgs fiasco and ooba still being town as shit i'm going double down because ooba is still quite town

This is a particularly good example of a post that is town as all hell. I cannot imagine wanting to lynch this post, from any player, ever.

Goat on a Raft:
Goat drove me crazy until something like #753 when my blind rage against him started to see the possibility of him being town. I usually can't read CDB worth a shit unless people are pushing him decently as scum, and I feel his reactions here are confident and something that's pretty unlikely from his scumgame (although on the outside edges of possibility). His claim is a hard thing to lie about (especially with Shadoweh/Syryana/Alchemist possible third party) and can lead to him getting powerlynched to shit in a lot of scenarios. I think his early reads to form strong trust townreads (nacho, what's your read on mollie? sheeping your read on Tierce.) was a good move in a subtle way, his push towards deathrage is genuine as hell, etc. Probably definitely town.

I would appreciate some expansion here, I think. What's so great about 753? I'm biased on this one, but whoever said scum couldn't be confident? Especially given you just said you aren't great at reading them. I'm sure the claim is true, but I don't see why I should care- scum would want town to know a third party exists in all probability. I don't know what "deathrage" you're referring to. And what's left after that doesn't seem like enough for a townread to me.

I won't bother arguing Messiah right now, I'm willing to table them. Most of the possibly scum list is acceptable. Though it seems like a couple players didn't get mentioned at all?

[Cephrir]

VOTE: The Alchemist

Start playing, please.

[AGar]

2299 makes me grumble, but considering I have a strong enough town read on Tierce...

UNVOTE:

Zed's posts lately have made me realize his entire body of work this game is coming in, taking random cheap potshots at players and then disappearing again. Kinda like Ooba, only a bit more snarky.

We could kill that too.

@Ceph

Re: 2332 - No, no it's not.

AGar--when you get back, less anger, less frustration, less pointless aggression, please. Need you to be as objective as possible. Hope everything is well.

Thanks. Nothing was actually *wrong*, work just overwhelmed me (36 hours in 3 days turned into 45) due to other managers having life issues.

Trying to keep emotion in check. Realistically speaking, objectivity is going to be nearly impossible (bit of a theory/perspective rant incoming here). Players who have played multiple times with me are calling out a vote I made with reasoning to back it up because I "should have known better" or "shouldn't have had a scumread" on Amrun. Reality of the fact is that a) I was putting stock into Thor's end-of-D1 read on Amrun in addition to my frustration with her constant avoidance of actually providing even something (I alluded to my consideration of Thor's reads at one point maybe a day and a half beforehand) and b) regardless of alignment, I don't go with the "ebb-and-flow" of the general groupthink. I bus consistently as scum. I don't believe that as many people can actually meta people as they think they can. I think it takes a lot more interaction with a player than even reading all of their games thoroughly to effectively meta someone. I feel I have a good enough grasp on this site of exactly two players to meta them, over the course of 4 years playing, many times with similar groups of players. One of them was Thor. The other is Zito, and half of that comes from us hydraing in multiple games. I think too many people rely on "gathering townreads" as opposed to "finding scumreads" as an efficient way of playing as town, and I don't feel it's an efficient way of playing. I think - and always will think - that regardless of what people believe about it being a null tell, lurking is an efficient way of playing as scum if you aren't willing to fully commit to a balls-to-the-wall onslaught of posting, and that more people actually use lurking tactically than people would actually like to realize. When I see someone consistently and repeatedly putting off providing content in favor of garbage posting, I see play that detriments the town and helps the scum. Anti-town and pro-scum play are only so far apart. So frankly, I think the line of thought of "You should have known better. You should have known she wasn't scum!" is shit.[/rant]

Naut literally spent half of that span of posts explaining why 3 of his scumreads are town. My head hurts from even trying to comprehend what the fuck is going on there.

Ooba has actually been a bit better lately, although I'm still unsure there.

Tierce, can you expound on that quadz vote, please? Is there more than meets the eye? (Not a dig, just your votes today have felt off-the-hip so I want to know if this one matches that profile or if you have deeper reasoning there)

Not ready to place a vote yet.

[Tierce]

Tierce, can you expound on that quadz vote, please? Is there more than meets the eye? (Not a dig, just your votes today have felt off-the-hip so I want to know if this one matches that profile or if you have deeper reasoning there)

They haven't really been off-the-hip--I've been trying to think things through, and occasionally it's only after I place a vote that I realize something and/or something happens that makes me change that read.


Anyway, on quadz--yes, he's perfectly allowed to have scumreads both on Nautilius and on SpyreX, but the form of the attack on Nacho for Nacho's stance on SpyreX was off. And his whole attack on Nacho over his latest posts is superficial; the things he has issue with make no sense from a Town PoV. Look at this:

AH AH AH NAUTILIUS WHAT THE FUCK IS YOUR POSTING GOD AGH GET IT OFF GET IT OFF. (Seriously, you come into the thread with "x and y are town, oh and z wants to be town? sure she's town too" and

nothing else

? no fuck that
VOTE: Naut

First point: Nacho was replying to SpyreX's list of reads:

Benmage
Cephrir
Garruk Relentless
Messiah Complex
quadz08
Shadoweh
Tammy
Tierce

Tierce is town.
Shadoweh is town.
Messiah

feels

very, very town but I need to finish a reread to be sure.

...so Nacho doing "nothing else" doesn't really apply, as that kind of thing can be brief enough. And this very post states Nacho was rereading. quadz ignores this and attacks Nacho for the absence of more. See below, because this point has developments.

Second point: the Tammy/Nacho interaction...

AHEM.

and tammy's town too.

...was

clearly

a joke and it was obvious that Nacho already had a Townread on Tammy, so acting like that was what Nacho was

really

posting is a disingenuous misinterpretation of his post. (See my "pushover" joke after Nacho's post, etc.)

Note that quadz is complaining about one of two things: either Nacho is not explaining enough, or he is not scumhunting (what?). Then Nacho goes and performs a dissection of several ISOs and explains how several people are Town. quadz's complaint becomes that Nacho isn't posting cases, and that reads != cases. I... what? Not even going into theory nonsense here, Nacho

is

posting cases[/i]. Look at Nacho's ooba read. That is a "this person is Town and this is why" case if I ever saw one. He's also making "these things are scummy and this is why" statements. He has reads in flux and shows his work. And what is with this moving the goalposts nonsense? Nacho makes several beautifully detailed posts, but it's still not enough because he ought to do something else in quadz's perception? What of what Nacho

is

doing? Why doesn't quadz care about that? I believe that's what Cephrir is saying when he complains that quadz has no real opinion on Nacho's posts; he doesn't seem to care about the

content

of the posts, just that they are not tailored to some measure quadz keeps changing.

[Messiah Complex]

Before I read on this I just want to talk about how this bothers me. He thinks mollie was killed because she was starting to coordinate the townblock and yet makes no effort to coordinate one himself?

I don't want to die

The only people I would reject outright from your list are Goat and Ceph--Goat people didn't do anything, claimed that six anti-town players are in the game, and then continued to do nothing, and Ceph and I clearly aren't seeing eye to eye here. SD and Ben are the two I feel best about, and I would add Kanye and Stupendous.

All those reasons the hammer was awful still don't matter because they wouldn't stop someone trolling for hammers. It's still impossible for a town-Spy to have known he was hammering town, so it's not a fair point to hold against someone.

You have got to be fucking kidding me.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=29483

Reckoner quickhammers TWICE, gets away with it, endgames town in LYLO (A+ fakeclaim) for the W

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=30429

I quickhammer the unclaimed town BG, teammates endgame town in LYLO for the W

The bottom line is that Spyrex's hammer is

teeming

with scum motivation, and the fact that your counterargument is literally "Town still trollhammer so it's null, try harder!" is totally and completely asinine. We're lynching Spyrex today, end of story.

- Des

[Cephrir]

Before I read on this I just want to talk about how this bothers me. He thinks mollie was killed because she was starting to coordinate the townblock and yet makes no effort to coordinate one himself?

I don't want to die

Bullshit.

Also, you don't want me in your townblock because you and I are disagreeing, but you do want Stupendous, who couldn't scumhunt his way out of a paper bag? For real?

All those reasons the hammer was awful still don't matter because they wouldn't stop someone trolling for hammers. It's still impossible for a town-Spy to have known he was hammering town, so it's not a fair point to hold against someone.

You have got to be fucking kidding me.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=29483

Reckoner quickhammers TWICE, gets away with it, endgames town in LYLO (A+ fakeclaim) for the W

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=30429

I quickhammer the unclaimed town BG, teammates endgame town in LYLO for the W

The bottom line is that Spyrex's hammer is

teeming

with scum motivation, and the fact that your counterargument is literally "Town still trollhammer so it's null, try harder!" is totally and completely asinine. We're lynching Spyrex today, end of story.

- Des

Yes, there is scum motivation. Town do still do it, though. I'm sure I could easily produce examples of this too if I felt like it. It's not enough to lynch on. I understand there are unrelated suspicions on the slot, and that's legitimate. It's ironic that you won't brook any counterargument for lynching SpyreX when, you know, you're lynching him for lynching someone without waiting for a counterargument. And frankly I find the "here's two examples of deliberate scum quickhammers so that must be what's happeneing here" logic disingenuous.

[Messiah Complex]

Also, you don't want me in your townblock because you and I are disagreeing, but you do want Stupendous, who couldn't scumhunt his way out of a paper bag? For real?

I don't understand what this is. What do you think a townblock is and what was going through your head when you asked me these questions?

Also it sounds like you're saying Stup can't be town because he can't scumhunt, but that would be ridiculous. So what were you actually trying to say?

Yes, there is scum motivation. Town do still do it, though. I'm sure I could easily produce examples of this too if I felt like it. It's not enough to lynch on. I understand there are unrelated suspicions on the slot, and that's legitimate.

It's ironic that you won't brook any counterargument for lynching SpyreX when, you know, you're lynching him for lynching someone without waiting for a counterargument.

And frankly I find the "here's two examples of deliberate scum quickhammers so that must be what's happeneing here" logic disingenuous.

That isn't what irony is and the two situations aren't even remotely comparable.

And what I presented isn't "logic," it's evidence--that scum can and will take opportunities to quickhammer if it benefits them, especially if they think they can talk their way out of it on the other side (which Spyrex clearly does). And given the limited information Spy has provided, the quickhammer

only

benefitted him as scum.

I'm going to reiterate that:

the quickhammer

only

benefitted him if he got a scum role PM.

If he really was town whose power hinges on his having the (or multiple) hammer(s), he could have just...waited. And hammered later. But he didn't. Because he's scum.

- Des

[The Alchemist]

Glass Towers, I don't have much meaningful to add to Nautilus' analysis of Andrius. Though for the sake of concision: Andrius' play was null. I see nothing in his ISO that's beyond his faking abilities as scum.

[Zdenek]

PeaceBringer got called scum and replaced out. My experience is that do this disproportionately more often than town.

Wrong.

I'm pretty sure that it's not.

And I'm pretty sure that it is. Not only do you have to take into account PeaceBringer's recent history on the site, but also that Town will often not react to being called scum as you think they should. Everyone is different. And with Town:scum proportions and the fact that replacement ratios are frankly as null as can be as seen on several attempts at analyzing replacement ratios in the post, the burden is on you to prove how are scum more likely to replace out when being called scum than Town. Everyone is always being called scum all the time, you can't pick and choose and say that your experience shows that it is scum who primarily replace out under those circumstances.

Of course I can. You were in Rapture - two scum in that game replaced out under pressure. You can say that everyone plays differently, but scum follow patterns. One of them, is replacing out when they are pressured. Frankly, it's a tell that I've gotten pretty milage out of recently. Plus, there's the clear scum motivation of survival behind it, since there's always the chance that someone else will replace in and improve people's read on the slot, and town general reluctance to lynch a slot that's going to be replaced, especially early in the game when there's the hope that a new player will "clarify" the slot. It' like the out of game/IRL excuses tell - both town and scum do it, scum do it disproportionately more. In this game, we've had displaced and Spyrex in that slot, neither has done anything to make me think that it's not scum.

In other news kkb is nostradamus per 2329 vs 2331

I am utterly shocked that you don't like the points that I've raised against you.

Zdenek and Cephrir are the next two stale townreads to revisit.

You should probably just vote for Spyrex.

I can't say now. I will as soon as I can.

You never did this, Zed!

When you do, you'll realize that I am obviously town.

Why?

Eh, Goat on a Raft is still scum,

Why?

I'm really confused about why so many people are saying thinks like Spyrex is bad, but LOL we can forgive him, vote someone else.

It's making me nervous.

Who's saying that? The quickhammer didn't seem remarkable to me.
Disappointing, but not remarkable.

kkb-zed scum pair seems unlikely from his iso

1. I can't yet.

2. I think that I have rather obvious scum meta and that quads and I have played together enough that should have been town reading me.

3. The refusal to "reach out" after Mollie's comment, and then using posting out of hydra an excuse to drop offline.

4. See posts 2220, 2228, 2237 (but ok they busted out the spyrex double vote), 2249

Current reads

Town
Alfred Borden - proactive, playing like town-Empire.

Cephrir - open posting style makes me think town.

SafetyDance - reaction to pressure

Goat on a Raft - I doubt they are faking their ability to gain information about the setup.

Tierce - Tierce has responded to my prodding in a way that makes me think that she's town. If she was scum, I'd expect her to overreact, and really blow it out of proportion.

Null, do not want to lynch
Benmage - meta says maybe town since scum-Benmage from the wire was more forgiving of new players than this benmage. I've also liked most of his votes.

elleheathen - some of her posting seems really genuine, and I'm not sure that she could fake it.

Nautilius - I don't have a strong read here, but they are a slot that I feel comfortable waiting on.

ooba - proactive play.

Prideandjoy - this slot is a huge question mark for me. How they have a town read on Alchemist is beyond me, but their list contains all my scum reads, so I'm okay with them.

Syryana - willing to wait on this slot.

Garruk Relentless - gut

Shadoweh - ditto

Tammy - ditto

Null, willing to lynch
AGar - I don't have a strong read here, but him putting Amrun at L-1 was bad.

StupendousMan - the only reason I don't think that he's scum is his push on Nautilus today, which I'm not sure he'd do as scum.

The Alchemist - ??

Scum

kanyeknowsbest - I think he's being cagey, and I think it's an act. His vote on me is bullshit considering the things that he could be pushing.

Messiah Complex - I haven't really liked any of his pushes so far (well except for the current one on Spyrex), and a lot of their arguments have been really contrived. Their reasoning for Amrun town made no sense.

quadz08 - very unnatural shift on Elleheathen and cognitive dissonance.

SpyreX