A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

[quadz08]

Messiah, if you "see it now," why didn't you switch your vote?

[ooba]

*Speculative post - Refer later if Safety flips scum - Ignore otherwise*

I've wanted to avoid setup speculation of any sort because I believe it detracts from my reads\game and I tend to get increasingly wrapped up in my own *paranoid* theories. However, I like the current theory that I have and would like to share my thoughts in case I die.

---

What's up with Safety Dance?

The question that's been running in my mind (and the genesis for the speculation) is "If SD was scum, why would SD even lie about his ability order i.e. track and roleblock on those night? What's the scum motivation?"

Alignment were randomised, so whether your character is The Great Other, or Ned Stark you have the same chance of drawing any anti town role. A large part of the design process was done before alignments were even considered (So roles came first, then the alignments), so bear that in mind, too. That is not to say certain changes may not have been made afterwards.

So here's what I think happened:
- Faraday created the initial role versions for all the roles in the game
- He then rolled for alignment
- He then balanced the game by altering abilities so that all sides were balanced*
- Now scum do not need really need fake roles in this game. But maybe they were given the initial version of their role PMs.

Now SafetyDance was run up on D1. If you look at his posting, you can see that he's thinking of whether a claim will run him up or not "Lol, if you wont lynch a miller claim then you wont run up me.". Here's what I think:
a) SafetyDance is

Meera Reed, Scum Roleblocker

b) And he claimed his initial version of Meera Reed, Town JoAT (1-shot of Fruit Vendor, Tracker and RB)

And I think that's why he made a mistake on the claim today - cause he kept thinking 'I'm claimed JoAT and not roleblocker'. And the massive over-reaction was because he didn't want the lies of the claim unraveled.

---

Two scum teams

*Yeah - I also think there's a decent chance that this game is a two scum team setup.

There was SpyreX's exit post which seemed to hint at it.

So, good luck and may the Others take every one of you that deserve it.

YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE

And even though flavor-wise, "Chaos" is a decent name for a generic scum team opposing the realm, my first thought when I saw "Chaos" was that there's another "Evil" scum team. [Lawful-Chaotic, Good-Evil]

Now, obviously - the number of kills contradicts this theory. But looking at Goat's setup info (6 scum) and the fact that Faraday's Clash of Kings had 26 players and a 17-4-4-1SK setup - I think a 19-3-3 makes more sense with a

no scum cross kill

clause - i.e. a kill on another scum team member fails. (or we've been *extremely* lucky with roleblocks+protection).

---

Probables

So if Safety flips scum, obviously Messiah is scum with Safety:
- For the early D2 "Safety is town because he sent a fruit to me"
- And the more current (a) voting Garruk when a Safety-Quadz 1:1 seemed obvious (b) And if he missed it, he still didn't vote after it was explained to him?

Also, I believe my read earlier that Messiah is not scum with SpyreX (which again reinforced two scum theory). Quadz still is the best bet for SpyreX scum buddy. Quadz switch from a fair town read on Nacho D1 to a scum one on D2 + Safety's N2 claim of track\block on Nacho makes me think Nacho is the third in the Safety\Messiah team.

Both Messiah and SD mention Garruk in their first post of D2 (and) Messiah's recent push on Garruk makes me think Garruk is a possible for third in the SpyreX-Quadz team - but the fact that Garruk said "Quadz is not lying about his role but is probably scum" is not what I would see a scumbuddy telling his last partner. So not sure there.

Evil: SafetyDance-Messiah-Nacho
Chaos: SpyreX-Quadz-?

---

Now there's a good chance that all this is nonsense and Safety flips town so take it with a pinch of salt.

[quadz08]

If you believe all that, which you seem to, why are you voting SD and not me? You seem a lot more confident in my scumflip than his.

[ooba]

If you believe all that, which you seem to, why are you voting SD and not me? You seem a lot more confident in my scumflip than his.

Because it's a theory, and like I said - my theories have been wrong in the past.
- If I'm wrong, I lose a lot more if I lynch town-Macho cop you than town-SD right now.
- Also easiest way to prove parts of my theory is to lynch a non-SpyreX scumbuddy scum anyway

[Tierce]

Because ooba has made a point of saying this is all moot if SafetyDance flips Town and thus it makes sense for him to hinge Today on SafetyDance's flip...?

PEdit: Stop answering for yourself, dammit!

[quadz08]

That makes sense.

[Benmage]

No way this game is multiball.

Past conversations with Faraday look like this:

Me: Yo son, multiball makes it hard to scumhunt.
Faraday: Thats true kid.

/end

See..... No way its multiball.

[Tierce]

I'd say it isn't multiball from the number of kills, but frankly the number of players points toward high multiball odds, Benmage. Hard to scumhunt or not, multiball is Faraday mod meta.

[Benmage]

--Every Faraday asoif is scum sided 100%.

A Feast for Crows was definitely town sided if you go back and check the setup.

Multi ball (Clash of Kings, Dance with Dragons) is definitely harder to balance

but I think clash was very swingy but balanced, too. (Although ew sk + mafia + mafia isn't something I'd do again.

[Benmage]

Yolo, 1 team. Wire, 1 team.... Two of his more balanced games. Everyone can evolve... Even Faraday.

[The Alchemist]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: SafetyDance

[quadz08]

*shrug* no point in assuming it's multiball until we get multiple kills or multiple faction flips. Could go either way at the moment, but Occam's Razor on number of kills suggests 1 scumteam.

[Messiah Complex]

Messiah, if you "see it now," why didn't you switch your vote?

We have 5 days left and there is nothing more to be gained from voting SD.

- des

[quadz08]

.....

do you think he's scum or not? Or do you just think Garruk is scummier?

[Titus]

UNVOTE:

Realized I was still voting the cop claimer.

Can I get a vc?

[Titus]

UNVOTE:

[Tammy]

Yolo, 1 team. Wire, 1 team.... Two of his more balanced games. Everyone can evolve... Even Faraday.

...I played in a upick designed by Faraday at another site AFTER both of these games. It was multiball. And both teams had a certain amount of crosskill protection. (And it had 24 players.)

I think the lack of multiple kills points away from multiball, but let's stop talking about what Faraday will and won't do.

--------------

Of the two, I'd lean to voting SD (duh). Even if SD tracked Quadz last night, he should have tracked him to himself not to nowhere. I'm having trouble seeing what a scum quadz gains by lying to get SD lynched when it will only put his lynch off for a day.

[Benmage]

by Faraday at another site

FARADAY IS CHEATING ON ME!!!!!!!!!

[Eddard Stark]

Day 4, Vc 19

The Alchemist (1) -

Benmage

Titus (4) -

kanyeknowsbest, SafetyDance, Goat on a Raft, elleheathen

SafetyDance (5) -

quadz08, Nautilius, AGar, ooba, The Alchemist

quadz08 (5) -

Shadoweh, Cephrir, Goat on a Raft, Garruk Relentless, PrideandJoy

Tierce (1) -

Katsuki

Garruk Relentless (1) -

Messiah Complex

Not voting (4)

- Alfred Borden, Tammy, Tierce, Titus

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

• Deadline Date: 10th of November at 17:00 EDT
  
• Deadline Countdown: (expired on 2013-11-10 17:00:00)
  
• Tierce is V/la. Your mod is V/la again. Sorry!

[kanyeknowsbest]

Q: if you think there is any chance in hell this is multiball, why are you not voting the raftgoat ?

[kanyeknowsbest]

cus uh, seriously, 18:3:3? youd have to be hiiiiiiigh as fuck

[Cephrir]

That's cool, but I don't think your opinion in this case is authoritative at all.

Thoughts on my Garruk vote?

- Des

It's a good vote, but now is not the time. Pay attention, we're lynching SD/quadz today.

This claim implies pretty strongly that SD is scum if it's true, so I will probably oppose lynching anyone other than the two of them. Unless some really attractive wagon that I desperately want anyway pops up.

Also, I don't know shit about balance so why is this the case?

Because it has nothing to do with balance! Pay attention!

WI am not much further but if anyone wants a screen grab of the pages as proof I am not bullshitting, please don't hesitate. I will update at the end of the night with my progress.

*twitch twitch twitch*

Why the hell did you modify my quote?

Anyway

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v12/T ... 153231.jpg

That's one of the pages. It would take too long to post them all and I have reading to do.

Putting all the pages up would be too much. Finally have some time to get cracking on this thing for awhile before work tomorrow. I'm expecting to get to page 20 or so tonight.

Right now, GR and PnJ are scumreads. Tierce is a solid town read. Shadoweh is conftown for the most part unless he does something really scummy. His wavelength has practically mirrored mine thus far. Kanye is a what the fuck read. Everyone talks about him but I can't read the guy either way.

I'm gonna want to see all of these. I will read your handwriting if I have to.

wall

For those of you keeping score at home, ooba's current towniness quotient is 8,247 (approaching the all-time record!)

cus uh, seriously, 18:3:3? youd have to be hiiiiiiigh as fuck

Pretty much this.

VOTE: SafetyDance

[Cephrir]

Also, re: claiming Macho to save town PRs the time- protective roles really aren't so important that their time would actually be better spent elsewhere. Letting mafia assume he's protected would be a way better play. I maintain that this was stupid.

[Titus]

Ok. Cephir, give me time as I am driving over 400 miles today. When I get back home and finish my office work, I will try to get that scanned. If my scanner is broke, I will proceed with reads til then.

Anything in {} is my own thoughts. Anything else is events.

[Cephrir]

I mean, it's not a "do this now", it's a "do this eventually".