Micro 252: There Is No Doctor - END

[Lastsurvivor]

Bulbazak, you are not okay with lynching someone who you are divided on. Why is TIP who you read as town a better option?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Lastsurvivor]

To answer your question, F16, I'm looking into TPR right now. I might be willing, but I'm only going to do it last minute.

I'm almost positive Bulb is scum.

But besides TPR, is there anyone else you'd be willing to vote, F16?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

prod dodging. got called in to work. i'll be back tomorrow to catch up.

tbone still needs rope btw.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

To answer your question, F16, I'm looking into TPR right now. I might be willing, but I'm only going to do it last minute.

I'm almost positive Bulb is scum.

But besides TPR, is there anyone else you'd be willing to vote, F16?

My thoughts are the that TPR is scum along with one of Bulbazak or T-Bone, not sure who yet. I was 50/50 on both, now I am leaning towards it being Bulbazak based on the sequence of 638, 673, and 698. Not feeling a TIP lynch (or Sangres, ETL, Pitoli). I'll vote for any of TPR >>>> Bulbazak >>>>> T-Bone in that order.

@ Pitoli and TIP, who else would you lynch?

[Bulbazak]

Bulbazak, you are not okay with lynching someone who you are divided on. Why is TIP who you read as town a better option?

TIP is producing nothing, and I'll admit, my meta read may be wrong. I just think it's the less objectionable lynch. Rose is someone that seems to be echoing my deepest fears, mainly that I might have let go of Pitoli too soon. I've had a lot of games recently where I've correctly identified scum on the first day, but let them go for one reason or the other. I'm afraid that sort of paranoia is going to haunt me in regards to Pitoli, no matter what my current read on her is. Whether Rose is actually earnest in this regard or is just playing off of my natural paranoia remains to be seen, but I don't want to rush into that lynch atm.

[The Purple Rose]

Paranoia could be started on other people more easily. Some of that is going on, I feel, with some of the wagons being proposed right now, but the case on pitoli is one of logic, not of gut feeling. Paranoia doesn't have to be a part of that, just vote with your mind.

Deadline is soonish (1.5 days from now). I don't like the push on bulba at all. The case being made on an abrupt switch is silly. There was no scum reason to make a big bold move at that point, and scum are concious about how their actions are percieved. Bulba has to have a reason for that move and that's worth it to him that people will think it's weird. Town shouldn't care about how weird their reads look, as long as they believe their reads are sound. In short, it's a horrible case, actually punishing town behaviour.

I don't think this is the time to lynch TIP. Everybody is aware he's not very productive, and if we are too paranoid about him, the day before lylo he can have rope. Day one, he's not the one we are looking for.

I would compromise on one player, but nobody else seems to mind them, and that's Sangres. They've been pushing very little this day, basically we've been waiting for something hard to come from them. And our waiting results in the last couple of days in huge meta posts, where they almost forget to put their conclusion on at the end. It's a big effort with very little result. Sangres is all bark and so little bite this game, just take for example how many people they've actually interacted with more then brushing them. Pushing bulba, pushing pitoli, buddying F-16. It looks like textbook eloquent scum. They know how to talk, forget that town actually step out and

do

stuff.

Otherwise, Pitoli is my choice today. With her recent lurking, if you are looking for a compromise, pick the scum that nearly flaked the moment she was pushed hard, even if you don't understand why I'm pushing her.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Bulbazak, I can see what you mean about echoing your paranoia. I still can't shake the feeling that at its core, the TIP lynch is essentially turning out to be a policy lynch which I don't like.

TPR, your read on Sangres is completely off. If you read their posts, they have mentioned their conclusions. They haven't interacted with people because their townreads haven't been "interactable." Pitoli and ETL are posting only to prod-dodge and I haven't played well at all during the first ~24 pages (but I'll save that for endgame). They have not pushed Pitoli other than that one vote at the beginning. In any case, even if they have, why does that make them "textbook eloquent scum" when you have been pushing Pitoli as well? They have also not "buddied" me at any point in the game. Where did you get this idea?

Pitoli has been inactive. I don't think it points towards her being scum though. Scum lurk when the game state is favorable to them. I think Pitoli as scum would have got online to defend against your push. More than the activity level, you aren't considering Pitoli's behaviors when she had been active. I detail them in my reads list wall. Your initial push was based on weak reasoning (the GF tell). You are not considering the fact that town don't want to be mislynched. If they can confirm themselves, that is one less possibility of a mislynch and more likelihood of lynching scum. Pitoli explained her reasoning for not

Both the players that you are pushing are strong townreads on mine which is more concerning. Both are fairly obvious town as well.

[Bulbazak]

Yeah, Rose is town.

Unvote

Vote Pitoli

Because I'm going to regret it later if I don't.

[T-Bone]

The activity level shouldn't really factor into your town read F-16. Pitoli is just inactive period. He said he's busy, are you saying he's purposely avoiding the thread so....that he'd be read as town? Or that he's worried about being read as scum if he comes in and posts? If this is happening, why should he be worried about it? Can't he really just be busy without an ulterior motive?

I'm waiting on Pitoli. I want something from him.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

TPR claimed that Pitoli's inactivity is scummy. I don't think activity level by itself says much. It depends on activity level with respect to gamestate. Even if you don't consider activity level, I still read her as town. But yes, I'd like to see something from her as well.

[T-Bone]

Ah ok. I misunderstood then.

[The Purple Rose]

That's something for tomorrow, I guess. Someone should do a count of the amount of posts f-16 has invested in explaining pitoli and defending her. Your choice if you include the posts where he calls my posts about it not very genuine, as I'm obviously biased

[BBmolla]

Votecount 1.12

Bulbazak - 2 - sangres Lastsurvivor
pitoli - 2 - The Purple Rose, Bulbazak
TheIrishPope - 1 - pitoli
T-Bone - 1 - EspeciallyTheLies,
The Purple Rose - 1 - TheIrishPope
EspeciallyTheLies - 1 - T-Bone

Not Voting: F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Deadline: (expired on 2013-11-12 09:33:00)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

VOTE: Bulbazak

Pitoli, TIP, let's do this.

[Lastsurvivor]

The case being made on an abrupt switch is silly. There was no scum reason to make a big bold move at that point, and scum are concious about how their actions are percieved. Bulba has to have a reason for that move and that's worth it to him that people will think it's weird. Town shouldn't care about how weird their reads look, as long as they believe their reads are sound. In short, it's a horrible case, actually punishing town behaviour.

Ostensibly, there's nothing "big" or "bold" about Bulba's vote switch. He was arguing with F16, then he voted F16.

It's only when you dig down a little that you see the scum play. Why did his read on Pit disappear? Why did Pit's #438, a post which Bulba only responded to with "fair enough," make Bulba think she was town?

"Town shouldn't care how weird their reads look" --- misrepping the case. It's not his read on Pit or F16 that bothers me. It's that he didn't adequately explain why he switched, and reading through his ISO, one can't get a good sense of the process of Pitscum -> Pittown. It just happens, and that's something that rings alarms to me.

[The Purple Rose]

ok, let me put it like this: why would scum bulba make a point of going from pitscum to pittown? That's the first half of my argument why I think the case isnt very good.

[Bulbazak]

LS, I had a hard time seeing Pit-scum saying "screw you" in the way that she did. That made me question my scumread, so I unvoted. I'm on her wagon right now for paranoia's sake. As for F-16, I didn't like the way he was defending Pitoli, which was why I thought he was scum. However, his analysis of my actions were way above and beyond what scum would do, and I could only see town motivation for doing so. He became extremely solid town for that action.

F-16, get off me and vote Pitoli. Trust me on this.

[sangres]

And I repeat, if I was scum, I'd want to keep the Pit-lynch option open. There's no way I would buddy her in the manner you are suggesting.

The pitoli lynch option doesn't at all seem to be closed, considering that you're pushing for her lynch right now.

#99 He wants to plant some doubt about the Innocent Child. That's good, scum want that doubt in the air.

Why? So they can push a lynch on him later?

#104 - No progression into changing his read from F-16 to TIP. It just suddenly happens, and he rages too, because a lot of players do that on this site (me included) so it seems innocent enough right? This is the post that originally set me off in my first read, and I immediately posted in the thread after finishing that page. RE: my first post. Other than trying to justify TIP earlier in the game his posts have been devoid of anyone really but F-16 to this point.

It's a vote on someone who hasn't been providing much content since the RVS stage ended. There's a progression in the degradation of her scum read on F-16 (98). What more progression were you expecting?

#180 - Don't like this, because the post he is reacting to from TPR is the most townie thing anyone has said this game.

I don't think many people agree with that statement.

#543 - Hate this too. F-16 was town when it suited his agenda. Now F-16 is scum again. That's not an evolving read, that's a read of convenience.

#552/#556 - Similar thing. Now TPR is town because again, it suits some agenda. That's not an evolving read. Calling the playerlist scum for wall posting...again, that's not reads that are fluid and evolving...it's as if ETL isn't keeping track of his own reads, and instead the reads he is posting look fake because of it.

What agendaa are either of these read switches serving?

- Based on meta, I am reading TIP as scum. Nacho, I want to discuss your meta-read in more detail.

I liked TiP earlier when he aggravated TPR pretty much on perfect. He usually latches onto something and pursues it as town, hasn't really had that same thing happen in this game. I plan on going through his meta later when I have time, from my initial townread on him went stale a long time ago.

He is a lot more worried and antsy once Bork starts scumreading him and tries to convince him to back off.

Whereas here when people start scumreading him, he goes with the "COME AT ME BRO" response as opposed to anything interesting.

Nacho, you said you know his meta well. Can you explain your meta-read for me. I'd like to hear more details than what you posted earlier. If I am off-base, hearing your critique of my read would be awesome as well.

The parts where you see him as talking about superficially a bit too much is more of TiP's personality as opposed to anything else. In Syryana's Chosen Mafia, Day 1 was Mara and I tunneling the hell out of each other (me tunneling Mara more than anything else), and that resulted in TiP calling us both scum and generally mostly avoiding our fight in general. He never came out of his shell until D2, where he pushed phok very strongly.

They are somehow always having different thoughts the then rest of the town.

Like which thoughts specifically?

I'm on her wagon right now for paranoia's sake.

So... you're still reading her as town.
But you're voting her because you don't want to be wrong?

[Bulbazak]

I'm on her wagon right now for paranoia's sake.

So... you're still reading her as town.
But you're voting her because you don't want to be wrong?

I'm actually not sure what to think of her. Part of me still likes that reaction, but the longer I think about her, the more paranoid I get that I might have been right the first time. This is because of my recent track record of correctly identifying scum d1 and letting them go, and also because of the "GF-tell". Given as I don't have any better suspects, I'd rather get this out of the way now, rather than deal with it later in the game.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, let's talk about the GF tell. I think you said you bought her explanation for asking to be investigated. What changed now?

Her comment was in response to your joke about daycopping her. You are essentially saying that you made a joke about daycopping the GF and she responded by saying that she is fine with it. I find it a stretch to say think that she said it because she is the GF.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, what about 705 is townish? And what are your reads on the rest of the players?

[Bulbazak]

Okay, let's talk about the GF tell. I think you said you bought her explanation for asking to be investigated. What changed now?

I can actually see it both ways, which is where the paranoia is coming from.

I find it a stretch to say think that she said it because she is the GF.

Why do you think it's a stretch? Wouldn't you try to get investigated if you were the GF?

Also, what about 705 is townish?

It read as extremely genuine. I have a hard time seeing scum posting that. I also thought it was very well reasoned.

And what are your reads on the rest of the players?

LS is conf. town. Strong townreads on you and ETL. TIP is leaning town, but is absolutely worthless. Also leaning town on Rose. Unsure on T-Bone and Pitoli, although I'm more paranoid about Pitoli at the current moment. As for Sangres, I'm planning on reading back through and sorting them during the night.

[T-Bone]

#99 He wants to plant some doubt about the Innocent Child. That's good, scum want that doubt in the air.

Why? So they can push a lynch on him later?

#104 - No progression into changing his read from F-16 to TIP. It just suddenly happens, and he rages too, because a lot of players do that on this site (me included) so it seems innocent enough right? This is the post that originally set me off in my first read, and I immediately posted in the thread after finishing that page. RE: my first post. Other than trying to justify TIP earlier in the game his posts have been devoid of anyone really but F-16 to this point.

It's a vote on someone who hasn't been providing much content since the RVS stage ended. There's a progression in the degradation of her scum read on F-16 (98). What more progression were you expecting?

#180 - Don't like this, because the post he is reacting to from TPR is the most townie thing anyone has said this game.

I don't think many people agree with that statement.

#543 - Hate this too. F-16 was town when it suited his agenda. Now F-16 is scum again. That's not an evolving read, that's a read of convenience.

#552/#556 - Similar thing. Now TPR is town because again, it suits some agenda. That's not an evolving read. Calling the playerlist scum for wall posting...again, that's not reads that are fluid and evolving...it's as if ETL isn't keeping track of his own reads, and instead the reads he is posting look fake because of it.

What agendaa are either of these read switches serving?

#1 Possibly.

#2 I am expecting more than it just coming out of nowhere. As you've quoted and I stated, I find that ETL is changing his reads because it's convenient, rather than coming from a protown mindset.

#3 Fair enough. I agreed with the statement.

#4 The agenda is simple. Find something, anything that will stick and provide a lynch. His reads aren't coming from a protown mindset in my opinion. They are erratic, crass, and just plain opportunistic. F-16 was town because other people were calling him town. Then ETL had an opportunity to call him scum because others started to. This read isn't evolving. His read on TPR is the same. He is changing his reads in hope of pushing a lynch through. That's not coming from a town mindset. That's a scum mindset to get a lynch through with very little cause. These are my problems with ETL in this game. While I hesitate to call anyone else scum because I can see somethings that come from a protown mindset there is NOTHING from ETL's play that reads to me as coming from a protown mindset.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Bulbazak, if I were GF, sure I would try to get investigated. But because I try to get investigated doesn't mean that I am necessarily a GF. Since you are a logical player, I'll just point you to this link. In this case, P would be being the godfather. Q would be a desire to get investigated. I am really trying to understand where this whole "GF theory" is coming from so please tell me what I am missing.

So, I'll quote it from there:

Affirming the consequent, sometimes called converse error or fallacy of the converse, is a formal fallacy of inferring the converse from the original statement. The corresponding argument has the general form:

If Godfather, then try to get investigated.
Tried to get investigated.
Therefore, Godfather.

An argument of this form is invalid, i.e., the conclusion can be false even when statements 1 and 2 are true. Since Godfather was never asserted as the only sufficient condition for trying to get investigated, other factors could account for trying to get investigated (while Godfather was false).

In this case, my point is that I buy Pitoli's explanation that "what townie minds being investigated?" Surely that is a nice thing. Some people say that townies shouldn't focus on confirming themselves, only on finding scum. I disagree with that school of thought. I think trying to confirm self to narrow that mislynch pool for scum is just as important. Cutting off possible mislynch opportunities suffocates the scum.

[Bulbazak]

You are making the argument seem more simple than it really is. For example, while town wouldn't mind being confirmed, their main focus is on finding scum. By asking to be investigated, they will thus eliminate the chance the cop could investigate scum and get a guilty, instead focusing on a selfish desire to be confirmed. This is anti-town. On the flip side, scum will want to say "Investigate me.". Why? Because if they're a GF, they can coast on that conf. town status, or, if they're regular scum, they can use the WIFOM to survive. How? Simple. There is no way a cop will investigate someone who has said "I welcome an investigation.", simply because the idea of GF is in the back of their mind, and they know that such an investigation would end up being a waste. Therefore, it comes down to motivation. There is very little town motivation to stating a willingness to be investigated, simply because town would know that action would prevent the cop from finding scum that night (keep in mind conf. town will probably not be announced right away and would die soon after being announced via NK). There is, however, a lot of scum motivation for requesting an investigation, whether it is because said scum is a GF, or because they hope the WIFOM will keep them alive.

To put it simply, by requesting an investigation, Pitoli has guaranteed that a cop would probably never scan her, and if he did, an innocent result on her would never be trusted, thus resulting in a wasted investigation.