A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

[Benmage]

whatever

unvote vote the Alchemist

[Eddard Stark]

Day 9, Vc 3

The Alchemist (3) -

Messiah Complex, Nautilius. Benmage

Benmage (3) -

Alfred Borden, ooba, Titus

ooba (1) -

SafetyDance

Not voting (4)

: Cephrir, Magua, Shadoweh, The Alchemist

With 11 alive it takes 6 votes to lynch

• Deadline Date: 24th of December 19:30 EST
  
• Deadline Countdown: (expired on 2013-12-24 19:30:00)
  
• No one is V/la

[Nautilius]

Apologies if links in quotes lead to weird places, wrote it while site was down:

mebbe he comes off as forced cos he is newbtown worried about getting lynched.

or you mebbe right and he is scum and his scummates are trying to bus him.

there are actually a lot of reasons why he may across as "forced" but it may have nothing to do with his alignment.

he seems new. he seems like he is trying to find his way. <-----no way I am voting that, if he did something outstandingly scummy then yeah but he hasn't.that is why if he flips scum I will think it is a bus and if he flips town we know where to look.

Yeah, Peace being the 4th one who seemingly divined that Stup was scum upon reread is enough for me to go elsewhere.

Unvote
Vote: Zdenek

- Des

I find it strange when people avoid wagons because different people are on them. I find it worse when they don't vote the people who ruined the wagon for them in the first place; it's distancing at its finest. This distancing is between Messiah and Peacebringer.

@ Ceph: Are you saying that the composition of a wagon isn't a real thing? You told us that you didn't want to do a list because they're juvenile or some shit, then you did one and it magically popped out a top suspect anyway? Nautilus "resorts" to Stup after telling me he had planned on giving them some room this game, Goat rereads and acquires a scum suspect that they immediately drop the moment someone questions it, and then peace rereads and, lo and behold, he votes stup too. None of these votes made me feel like I was on the right path. Should they have?

And yet he sees all of this and decides to vote none of them; again, seems disingenuous.

If you feel confident enough in calling this a 1 to 1 situation then I have absolutely no issue making the argument that he's approaching the same situation differently with the knowledge of the previous game in mind. He got lynched after clamming up, right?

How am I not looking deeply enough Tierce? I'm looking at SD's content, or lack thereof. He has Syry as uber town and Thor as a policy lynch. He has no read on Ooba, the other main wagon. He has no read on you or Tammy, the two people who orchestrated the push on him just now. How is any of this coming from the mindset of "I'm town and about to die?"

I don't like the way that he shoots down Alfred's townread on SD here. The argument between the two is something like "here's SD's scum meta and how horribly he reacted as scum, he's probably town now" and the attack of "welp, he could have improved". Messiah as town is looking to refine a read, further it, fix it. Messiah as scum should be making an effort to sort him out instead of attack it, but this feels like too much of an extension into the attacking realm.

I don't like how vague you're being and I don't like the implication that I'm not thinking about what's going on right now.

This shit isn't town flail.

I didn't like this attack at all. Mollie was prodding him to do something, not suggesting he wasn't thinking.

He sent a rabbit to us and I don't think a scum JOAT would use the fruit vendor ability N1.

- Des

This is... weird reasoning. I guess it isn't horrible, but the reasoning is still weird.
I don't understand why this was apparently enough to cause the Desp back off; everyone found SD town for play related reasons as opposed to just this.

Really don't like how you've had us in your potential scum pool all game but have made almost 0 effort to sort us.

Why is Amrun scummy? What's changed from your lynch pool list from yesterday?

- Des

I liked this because it felt like a reachout, but the reasons why I didn't like him then: lackluster posting, no strong efforts to sort anyone really, no "gotcha" points and that strongly suggests that he's town still stands now and it's Day 9 in a much more urgent situation.

I think Walking Dead was a unique situation that isn't likely to replicate itself--if you look back our D1 townblock is almost entirely the group of people that were most active during the 4 hour D1--maybe it was just circumstances or coincidence, but the town was really, REALLY ready to start playing that game and all of the scum got left out completely (sans Thor). I don't see that sort of situation happening here, do you?

I think we've gotten to the point where we could reboot a townblock, where strong definitive sorts are pretty needed at this point. Town momentum started in a pretty wonderful place, and is ending in a pretty horrible place; why haven't you made the attempt to sort out things like you usually have? Why does it feel like you haven't tried to sort me lately/had doubts about me lately/treated me like I was town and trying to work together lately? It's only a matter of time before I die; I probably have more in me to keep up high energy posting than anyone in the game and will probably keep reading and attempting to put things together more than anyone else in the game so even if I'm completely off track now, I'll put it together eventually. Why aren't you helping me get there?

I see a lot of posts dedicated to explaining why he found SafetyDance town and it makes me sad because it means he has less useful posts than I thought he did. Vote on displaced/SpyreX isn't nearly as impressive as it would be if he put it there for ~reasons~. He later says he's sheeping mollie's "replace out as scum" tell, but that's a particularly painful brand of hurt considering I don't see him interacting with mollie in any way, treating her as town or as scum or attempting to sort

her

at all.

Messiah Complex has the largest amount of high energy posting around the SpyreX lynch in an argument centered mostly around the quickhammer. This is normally something that's an absolutely fantastic thing to observe, but the SpyreX lynch was the only day when Messiah essentially centered on a target and drove it into the dust, which feels more like a bus because there is not an attempt to sort him out, and the conviction never wavers, never develops; it just appears out of nowhere and keeps going until its conclusion.

So this SD wagon has run its course, right? And we can all get back to finding scum?

I'm still in the process of putting together a Spyrex analysis that should be fruitful.

Looks like Ooba beat me to the punch a little bit, at least as far as Quadz was concerned, and his response was super, super weak. Yes, opinions change--why are you making Ooba chase you for the reasons why when he's already made it clear that your change of opinion was scummy?

Vote: Quadz

- Des

This is Messiah's initial push on quadz. It has all the high energy posting that was included in the SpyreX push, however, as soon as the cop claim comes out, this happens:

Unvote
Vote: Garruk

- Fish's early case
- Don't like their interactions with Spyrex--their main D3 push was on AGar for the L-1 vote, with some innocuous questions thrown at Spyrex that aren't ever followed up on...2911 was also a really awkward unvote
- Really shitty vote on SD when several people collectively lost their minds and thought he wasn't being clear about his actions with flimsy meta justifications
- And...

Messiah switches gears completely onto Garruk and tends to keep his hands out of the SD-quadz situation completely because quadz probably shouldn't have died the day that he did and he had a strong townread on SD already (still for scum JOAT reasoning as opposed to any other reason). They launch into a tirade how we

shouldn't

deal with the 1v1 today, we

shouldn't

deal with the 1v1 today, but in doing so he doesn't make any attempt to sort either of them out (despite that strong townread on SD earlier and no stance to speak of on quadz).

I really really really don't like how Tammy and I dropped a fuckton of reasoning about Borden's towniness and Desp just sort of... ignored it. He's as kneedeep in the "strong meta read" culture as I am so he should be able to see those things and trust conviction like the conviction Tammy had, but he ignored it and just kind of shelved it until later.

I also don't like how he sees the whole Benmage/Garruk thing yesterday and doesn't comment on it, just drops a vote on Alchemist. Felt bussy in the sense that it would be ignored pretty much entirely, but hey, at least he has his vote documented on Alchemist.

[Shadoweh]

Considering Alchemist's song could be mistaken for a scum claim, I don't have a problem with lynching him today. I still think Alfred is scum though. You're going to run out of people who could be scum that don't include him if you keep looking. At this point I've been robbed of my role by someone that won't even claim after his faketrack because of people like you arguing that he's still town before he answers. Consider what the last three days have been like. Then consider how pissed off and powerless any townies would be feeling right now.

[Nautilius]

You're going to run out of people who could be scum that don't include him if you keep looking.

If he's scum, sure. If he's not, then I'm not too worried about that! Why do you think he's scum? Do you think Tammy was just blatantly wrong on Empire and didn't really come close to sort of figuring him out? Why?

[Nautilius]

Ooba, could you elaborate on your reads?

-SSK

I can't elaborate on any reads - that's my post restriction!

First of all - there was a bit of me awkwardly townreading ooba at the beginning of the game due to playing a game with him as a scumpartner at the same time (this one. I felt that his opening play was crazily different from his play in that game and that gave me some serious doubts. I'm not as confident at the moment, but I still think his play has been strongly town enough to keep him as town and never lynch him.

I can't elaborate on any reads - that's my post restriction!

Now this is the type of thing that is kind of stupid to townread someone for, but I've found that ooba is a lot more consistent/solemn as scum than he is as town. The closest he came to making a joke in the scumgame I played with him was pretty much never; maybe he's a lot smoother his second game back, but it seems more likely that he's following his town meta.

@Nautilius: Thank you for 473. I still don't have a read on you - but that's the best "defense of ooba" post I've seen in quite a while.

I remember how much I liked this post when I first read it, and I still like it now. When ooba played as scum, people townread him a lot but he never thanked anyone for townreading him, just kept producing content, kept pushing mislynches. I also like the "I don't have a townread on you yet" - normally when scum is looking to start a mutual townread circle going, they call them town for the townread but ooba didn't give me a townread at that point because I didn't deserve it.

Note: Game started September 19th, ooba went on his vacation September 25th. In that timespan, ooba made 19 posts here. In the scumgame we were playing at the same time, ooba made 5 posts. That's just a single example of the different energies in this game compared to our other game; ooba seemed a lot more committed to this game and a lot more dedicated to figuring it out in games that were happening simultaneously; I find it unlikely ooba would be playing an absolutely amazing scumgame here and not the same looking scumgame there because his role here was absolutely amazing or something. I find it much much more likely this was the first towngame ooba got when he returned to the site and thus was more clearly figuring out this game than he was in the scumgame.

Kanye - I wish I had your charisma.

Also people have said this before - but Tierce tried too hard to justify her Thor vote.

I found this post very genuine, and a post that had some nice trajectory leading up to it. Ooba originally attempted to push a wagon on Garruk instead of Thor/SafetyDance, was shut down. He eventually compromises on SafetyDance and is very clearly annoyed, then expresses this tiny bit of joy when a speedwagon on Garruk is formed. In the scumgame happening at the same time (I'm drawing a lot from it but it means a lot to me), we were scrambling for a deadline lynch D1 and ooba was pretty much like "meh, just join the wagon". Here he was clearly more invested in getting the

right

lynch instead of just a lynch and is another instance of him playing way better than he would be playing in the scumgame happening at the same time.

This particular line in Garruk's post looked like it was worth checking out
"As well, the faces on the Amrun train engender more hope to me than the faces on ooba at the moment."

Amrun (3) - Goat on a Raft, Zdenek, PrideandJoy
ooba (2) - quadz08, AGar

And it does check out. He does say this about Quadz: "We don't really like Quadz either, but that's more gut than anything." and while he suspects P&J in one post for lack of activity - it quite clear from posting that they hold P&J's scumhunting in high regard and as town for the most part.

I really liked that ooba followed up on this. It's legwork that drives him a bit against one of his own suspects (but shows that he's following up on his own suspects, moving towards figuring out what he needs to do) and isn't something that directly benefits his scum win condition. But it does fit in nicely with his own self-described play of putting the puzzle together, figuring things out; I love it and it's a pretty good towntell for me.

I find it really hard to believe that he replied to the first part and somehow missed the second quote reply of Thor's to him - especially when it was bolded! Something in thread that makes you angry enough to replace out is an instantaneous reaction. The fact that he came back after an hour to replace out possibly points to the fact that it was faked.

I won't requote the whole thing here because manually coding this shit and too much trouble, but ooba's peacebringer case was fucking

beautiful

. I'm not sure if I noticed it at the time (considering it's me, I probably did), but the case was

beautiful

, hit all the right points, and generally nailed the living hell out of peacebringer. I remember ooba in our scumgame together opened up in the scum QT telling us that he didn't bus unless he had to, and then he didn't bus until he had to, meaning that this is an even more unlikely move for scumooba. The only person who would know that he didn't bus would be me in the scum QT, but I was already townreading him and defending the hell out of him so there was no reason for him to pull something like this.

I did not like how D2 ended abruptly. I wanted to take a more active role today in seeing who I want to get lynched lynched. That involves pushing cases on those I want lynched and dissuading people from other votes. If I had thought Agar's L-1 was scummy - I would have mentioned it.

I loved this bit too. Now, townies get frustrated when they feel they have good cases and no one is listening to them. Ooba already expressed this type of frustration earlier with his "I wish I had your charisma, kanye" comment, bonus on this case being on scum when he doesn't bus in the first place. It also goes to explaining motivation for that fake guilty, which was the biggest hoop for me to jump over wrt his towniness.

So, in short,
- Quadz thought I was scum for most of the game (D1,D2,D3)
- But voted SpreX because he thought SpyreX's hammer was that bad (He even ignored a starting wagon on me)
- Quadz procceds to vote Nacho because he didnt give reasons for those he called scum (flimsy jump off from the SpyreX wagon when it was at 8 votes)
- Quadz proceeds to vote the Alchemist
- Quadz is vehement that Alchemist is scum and never moves back to the SpyreX wagon
- D4 starts, there's ZERO mention of the Alchemist
- Quadz votes SafetyDance

Bunch of opportunistic votes and both his SpyreX=scum conviction and Alchemist=scum conviction appear faked.

Vote: Quadz

Yet another strong vote. For scumooba, this would have had to be after he just got done bussing the living hell out of SpyreX. And as I keep saying, hard busses aren't part of ooba's meta, and yet, look! After quadz wagon explodes and quadz claims cop, ooba decides that he wants to lynch SafetyDance because he doesn't think he'll be able to get quadz lynched over him after the 1v1 and is afraid of risk, calls the lynch too risky while it's going through. This strikes me as an unlikely bus not only because of timing, but because he 1) calls him scum the whole way through, even while voting for the counterwagon (doesn't take the easy way out and call him town because claim), and 2) doesn't capitalize on buscred while calling him scum when he's on the way down (aka calls the lynch bad while he's on it).

Tierce, your Garruk logic does not hold for two scum teams. I know there's no evidence for two scum teams right now but it feels right because it explains a lot of stuff:
- SpyreX pushing Zednek-me even when it was obvious he was going to be lynched
- SpyreX saying 'You know who you are'

Now before I talk about ooba's multiball theory, I'm going to remind everyone that it isn't multiball and ooba's theory is wrong. But despite that, the fact he holds a theory with such conviction reads pretty fucking townish to me; there's pretty much absolutely no reason to hold the theory as scum (and it requires him to do crazy shit like develop a theory of associations between two separate scumteams and keep adding to the theory, keep believing it even though he knows no evidence will ever turn up that supports it), that reads like a town that is deep down his rabbit hole. It also

makes sense based on his scumhunting methods

, which would be something that would be absolutely mindfuckingly awesome if he was scum. It would require him to build his entire playstyle around a single gambit even though the majority of people are likely to go "oh ooba" and dismiss him. He's also past the point of no return as far as towncred goes; there's actually no reason for him to come up and keep pushing this facade as scum.

aaand still town.

[Nautilius]

Current thoughts:

TOWN (S--->W)
ooba
SafetyDance
Cephrir
Alfred Borden (Empire/Llamarble)
Benmage
Shadoweh

SCUM (S---->W)
The Alchemist
Messiah Complex (Desperado/Formerfish)
elleheathen Magua
Zdenek Titus

[Nautilius]

And, thinking about it, I would actually love another case on why Alfred is scum:

Because he hammered? The first time it was scummy because AGar was shot and didn't get a chance to check in? Yeah, I see how that sucks but I can also see Llamarble forgetting it was necessary. Were any of you like "AGAR AGAR who did you block last night?" because I sure as hell wasn't. All I thought about was blood for the blood gods (GOAT LYNCH) and not at all about AGAR AGAR.

Because he's been inactive? Alfred actually had good content until sometime like Day 5, which was the day where no one did anything and PnJ got apathy lynched. Day 6 was gladiator on Goat, makes sense that he didn't do anything then. Day 7 was kanye fake guilty, Day 8 was Garruk fake guilty... when are you all expecting him to do anything again? I think Desp point on Empire being 75% of the hydra is 100% bullshit because Empire hates it and Llamarble is competent at it.

The best reasoning people get paranoid is because CHAOS LADDER, and that's a dumb theory that also has no basis in reality at all. If there were, I'm sure it would be the weakshit players on the scumteam and not Llamarblempire pulling all the stealth hammers.

[Nautilius]

None of the reasoning I've heard is enough to ignore Tammy + Empire's day 1 play. None of it.

[Nautilius]

Also, people were jumping to claim it being a scum slip that the scum team were made up of wights, which is impossible. Faraday picks roles first in upicks. Then he picks alignments. A wight could be town, while Rob Stark could be scum.

What do you think of what Tierce and Shadoweh said about this?

Anyway, I don't buy that the mods would have informed the miller about the presence of non-standard cops, so Thor's miller claim looks bogus,
- I'm a miller, but you could still investigate me as town.

Unvote
Vote Thor

The case the Zdenek pushed so hard on Thor for is pretty fucking weird. He pushes Thor for miller claim because he said any non-standard cops would investigate him as town: this is in a game where roles have nothing to do with alignments (Zdenek knew this), and he pushed on this being a scumclaim even though he would later admit that he had no idea what the fuck "non-standard cops" even meant. :/

I can't say now. I will as soon as I can.

I thought this SECRET SECRET SECRET bit was pretty townish. I'm sad he was never around to explain what the hell it meant, though.

elle's dicetags post seems super town to me

Is this because of rule breaking or is there something else?

I found this pretty fucking creepy, tbh. I'm not sure how anyone noticed so quickly that elle's dictags were rule-breaking, but maybe Zdenek just has a sharper eye than I do.

Zdenek doesn't get giant sets of quotes. His whole interaction around Thor early isn't natural. 400 and 401 are baad news.

The thor lynch hurts my head, but I will say this: its the right brand of hurt that I bet that is a way heavy town wagon. When VCA time comes, remember that.

LOL.

You should probably just self-vote.

There's a strange sort of confidence that lacks conviction here that looks scummy as hell. See: difference between Zdenek push on Thor and Zdenek push on SpyreX; on SpyreX, Zdenek is not that aggressive, lacks reasoning, but seems pretty fucking convinced that SpyreX will flip scum. On Thor, Zdenek is aggressive, latches onto reasoning, and yet doesn't seem *this* confident he will flip scum.

Fuck off.

This was strong, subtle... felt town. However, if we ignore my feelings, we can also look at a game where we tunneled the living hell out of Zdenek and lynched him after he claimed cop, and we'll find he wasn't as aggressive about his anger at getting pushed there.

Zdenek play would have to be pretty heavily bussy in order for him to be scum, though. I will also point out how strange it is that Zdenek never implied he had a global roleblock and never used it; it was similar to SpyreX's claim in the effect that the predecessors pretended it completely didn't exist even though it's the type of role that is pretty fucking important. Why wouldn't Zdenek use his power N1? Why wouldn't he use it N2?

I also have a card in my back pocket I am hoping not to use until lylo/mylo.

I like the softclaim.

VOTE: quadz

No defense, no questions. Clearly caught scum here.

Swaps immediately from a hardline "SD is scum" stance to a "quadz is scum" stance as soon as both quadz and her begin to take heat. Why?

Well y'all are just an impatient bunch are you. This was over one hundred pages and I had to fucking respond otherwise it would just be oh no herpalurk. The one thing I don't do is lurk. So I at least try to be helpful until I have the opportunity to be read. It wouldn't be a god damn problem if people weren't pushing my mislynch so damn hard. So yeah, I haven't read everything, but don't act like it's because I don't give a damn. That pisses me off.

For Pete's sake I'll just claim now that way when I seemingly ignore all the damn questions y'all have it will be because I am reading and then I'll have to catch up on that. You cannot have it both ways, either I can try to contribute, or I go dark for 48 hours. Period.

I am a one shot night stop. I stop all night actions on the night I bold a particular phrase. All investigative roles can verify because they get a result with my flavor name. It starts with a V. My ability is perfect to use at mylo because that then gives the group two lynches. Of course, that requires me to actually have the ability to live and read for two fucking seconds. I'm probably dead now so fuck off. Thanks a lot.

This seemed fairly genuine.

I think SD is scummy in his own right, but I still don't see how 1 v 1 occurs between quadz and SD given how much of an unreliable hesitant narrator SD is. I just find SD scummy in his own right, that's why I am voting him.

I don't understand where your quadz suspicion went; you found him scummy earlier, didn't you?
This feels like Titus was trying not to bus him into the ground.

The bolded suggests all your votes should be threats. Your vote pattern is not matching thus fueling my scumread on your slot.

This is... a weird reason to find someone scummy.
I kind of like it.

Naut could be third party with a defense mechanism that he had to get to L minus something before triggering the duel provisio (defense mechanism). I really can't see multiball on Day 6 with this few bodies.

I need to see more to vote Naut over GnR as I'm near certain GnR is scum. I wouldn't rule out Naut as third party though.

I thought the paranoia on me was pretty good.

I want either Alfred Borden (due to his fast hammers), Naut or the Alchemist dead. That's my lynch pool.

I don't understand where I came up on the scummy pool considering just a few moments ago Titus thought that I was third party at worst, misguided town at best.

Naut, the use of your duel power makes sense as scum. Goat was a universal scumread. Anyone who townread Goat had a read weaker than yours. Assuming arguendo that you're scum, that's the closest thing to a guaranteed mislynch and it draws head away from AB and Alchemst.

Oh. She called me scum because I used my powers.
Not at all surprising.

Quit tunnelling me and focus on what is happening.

So. I can see Syryana bussing Titus as soon as she replaces in because Titus, and Titus bussing back because she's bothered with Syryana's tunneling on her. It makes sense for both personalities.

Naut, how do you feel about a you me, Magua, SD townblock and rebuild from there?

And now I am in the townblock despite her suspecting me a bit earlier? Since when does Titus do townblocks?
This feels like she's trying to appeal to my general style of play and doesn't want to push me anymore because I put her in an earlier townblock.

So, I feel a bit stronger that she's scum. Don't think she beats elle/Magua, but I feel a bit stronger that she's scum. The strongest point to her being town is still the global roleblock, but I feel the towniness of that is outweighted by Zdenek not acknowledging it or even considering it at all despite the fact that it's a global roleblock and is awesome for town.

[Nautilius]

outweighed*
starting to pretty much die, going to do a ISO on elle/magua and maaaaybe shadoweh if I'm feeling up to it

[Shadoweh]

You're going to run out of people who could be scum that don't include him if you keep looking.

If he's scum, sure. If he's not, then I'm not too worried about that! Why do you think he's scum? Do you think Tammy was just blatantly wrong on Empire and didn't really come close to sort of figuring him out? Why?

Yeeees? Empire's not here dood. I think a good Day 1 can only go so far. I don't really have a case though. He just feels like scum. Do I think Tammy can be fooled, possibly, reading hydras is different from reading the plain person. Do you think it's weird that the T's got dotted out before the E's and you? I don't think you're alive because you're finding the right targets.

[Nautilius]

@Ooba - If I'm your town read, why did you phrase the quotes to paint me as scummy

This post is sort of gross, but I wonder if I'm biased because I have no idea what it means. At this point, ooba said nothing about his townread on elleheathen with the sole exception of a bunch of quotes, so it's not like oobascum would be going against previous positions even if he did call her scummy... this question just feels like she's weaponizing a former townread ooba had on her, which is a pretty neat scumtactic.

I expected coming into this that if she were scum, she'd have used her paranoia of me from the scum game she modded me in to give weight to an easy vote on me. She didn't.

And a similar bit here! "Didn't attack me, thus town". Plus I don't understand how not voting someone in pseudo-RVS is a big deal anyways, but it was for dear elle!

The quadz wagon is meh. He got town points for stopping the attempted tunnel on the hydra issue that was taking the thread way off course. I didn't like that he didn't answer my question posed to him on the vote but the unvote didn't strike me as suspicious as it's made out to be. But then, I could be slightly biased, lol. Null atm.

And here's a subtle defense of the quadz wagon that doesn't include her calling him town, which is one of those nasty half defense half distancing things, especially since it seems like she feels like he's mostly town (townpoints for stopping the tunnel on the hydra issue, unvote wasn't scummy vs didn't answer one of my questions) but still calls him a clean null, and also feels the need to weigh in on a wagon that was a clean null.

I think he's scum but at this point, even if he's not at least we have

1)His claim
2)His final reads
3)And the best vca analysis we're going to get

The worst case scenario is we lose a miller that would have to be lynched at some point anyway.

I don't like this lack of conviction on the eleventh hour when it finally looks like Thor is going to be lynched. Normally when you're about to lynch your top scum suspect, you reaffirm your beliefs and pray for a scumflip as opposed to reassuring everyone that it's going to be completely okay if your top scum suspect flips town.

@Alfred - In your 2160 reads, you have Zdenek up there in what looks like a varying degree of towny pile. Help me out and give me some insight into that one. My list looks fairly similar (at least name wise) with Z as the one exception.

My lynch pile looks something like: zdenek/amrun/ooba/kanye - though it's also a 'would like more from' pile.

And since almost everyone on the lynch is one of my townreads, with I think the one exception already named:

VOTE: Amrun

I believe this is

L-2

?

I'm conflicted on the slot - I think there was a point where I was leaning town due to some of their responses but it's been covered up under all the excuses ever. Content or claim, imo.

Pressure vote here doesn't look awesome.
The "my lynch pile is also my post more pile" actually looks horrible; no solid scumreads, really?

But do you actually think my 'pussy footing around with Thor D1' did 'jack shit for anyone' either, when a good portion of the group here admitted to not only ignoring what was in it but not even reading it? A theme that seemed to be carried into Day 2 since most of my questions went unanswered and my arguments about Zdenek and kanye ignored.

"Some people didn't read my D1 argument in Thor, I'm never going to do anything ever "
I don't like it when people shuffle off responsibility of their lessened activity to other town players, usually people aren't this deeply effected by criticisms of their play to the point where it completely completely damages it, especially when these criticisms are not the type of things that are remembered.

Yes, because:

I'm Ygritte. Aligned with the realm.

Most important of my abilities: I'm a fixed and permanent roleblocker.

You know nothing.

Guess who I targetted?

Tierce.

Which was part of my disengaging - because it was in the last day that I saw Tierce as town.

You need to kill me.

This was pretty town when it happened. The target? Not so town. Everything else? Hell yes.

I was about as convinced as Tierce scum on D1 as I could get - it didn't really change until mid D3. Yeah, I debated waiting until I was positive - but I also figured that if there was a reason that I was that positive on someone as scum, other people would be too and they'd just be lynched.

This, however, doesn't make sense if we keep previous play in mind. Elleheathen never ever ever called Tierce scum before outing, ever. She showed no signs whatsoever of suspicion, of trying to figure her out, none of that. She brings up "oh they'd just be lynched", but that doesn't explain why Tierce and why she never called Tierce scum in the first place. You'd also expect her to worry about Tierce alignment earlier as opposed to just when she finally ended up caring if Tierce being town was such a dramatic event where it required her to die. Like, Tierce not even being in her lynch pool even though she just perma roleblocked her the last day? No, that's weird as fucking shit.

One, because I wasn't very convinced on anything until after Thor's flip. A lot of my decision to target Tierce was based on Thor's final reads and him wanting to see either her or Zdenek's flip, in combination with the weird final vote switch/Faraday doesn't do millers reasoning. I meta'd some of her games at night at it wasn't adding up - that, and because I saw her as the biggest threat if she was scum.

"I basically sheeped someone who I found incredibly scum a day before and meta'd her a bunch" - this reasoning is vague as hell and doesn't get into any specifics whatsoever - still doesn't seem genuine.

Magua's play so far is decent, but nothing special.

[Nautilius]

You're going to run out of people who could be scum that don't include him if you keep looking.

If he's scum, sure. If he's not, then I'm not too worried about that! Why do you think he's scum? Do you think Tammy was just blatantly wrong on Empire and didn't really come close to sort of figuring him out? Why?

Yeeees? Empire's not here dood. I think a good Day 1 can only go so far. I don't really have a case though. He just feels like scum. Do I think Tammy can be fooled, possibly, reading hydras is different from reading the plain person. Do you think it's weird that the T's got dotted out before the E's and you? I don't think you're alive because you're finding the right targets.

A good Day 1, and a good Day 2, and a good Day 3... And hey, considering that's a huge fucking chunk of the content portion of the game, maybe not so crazy!
Empire's not here anymore, but he was. I don't think it's that difficult to read separate heads of the hydra when the head you're trying to read is obviously posting and posting a lot. I agree I'm alive because I'm not finding the right targets, hence Alchemist/Messiah/Titus reads.

Tierce and Tammy both died when Alfred was started to get suspicion (why didn't they die before?). I don't expect Alfred to die when he's garnering suspicion. I will also point out Tammy died with a pretty fucking strong townread on the E, sooooo.

[Nautilius]

Sorry, Tierce AND Tammy called him town.
So your theory is Llamarble killed the two players calling him town and not me because... I was wrong on him?

[Nautilius]

Anyways, before I go, quicknotes:

-If anything, Benmage's scumgame is consistent. Occasionally he drops meta hints from his old game that makes him look town (self-vote in the Wire), but for the most part he's aggressive and loud and posts a lot of cases. He usually doesn't stick his neck out far for shit as scum because he doesn't have to (because as scum, you really don't have to). This game, he's been playing crackheadedly as scum, it looks nothing like any of his other scumgames ever, and from the sheer amount of SHENANIGANS cruising around, I'm guessing he's probably town. Ooba, you asked why Benmage would do something stupid like fake a guilty after he already saw a fake guilty go awry. The answer? He wanted to show you how a fake guilty was done, and just fucked up. Llamarble, yes Benmage-scum could get away with faking things like this thanks to his town meta, but I don't think he'd sacrifice an element of his town meta for the sake of fake-guiltying as scum, especially when he could easily win the game (if scum would just shoot me already) by being consistent and by keeping his head down. Benmage breaks out the town meta bits when he's scum backed into a corner. He was not scum backed into a corner yesterday.

-My best towntells for Shadoweh are: Strongman vig. Was not neighborized early Day 1. Did not strongman vig any meta threats to her when she easily could have. Waited a long fucking time to vig Katsuki, and had last minute doubts when could have strongman vigged AGar. Generally been weird as fuck this entire game (like really really weird) and has gone her own way but I'm pretty sure she's voted scum after D1 constantly with the sole exception of Alfred. Have I at points in the game wanted her to die by fire? Yes. Lots of times in the game. Do I actually have any conviction whatsoever that she's scum? No. Hell no.

[The Alchemist]

Well, that was fascinating.

Can I die now? Please?

[ooba]

Nacho - that's a lot of analysis - I liked post 1 and still need to go into the links in post 3, but post 2 overall is weak.

Second piece of the case on him is this. Quadz, on N3, hadn't killed anyone. Now quadz on N3 hadn't under an approximate fuckton of pressure, but he wasn't at all in a better position than any of his other scumteam members. Zdenek? Ooba? Benmage? Cephrir? No, no, no. What would make sense is Alchemist submitting the kills because he's a ninja, and quadz not doing so as a result. This theory would make kkb's results useless, but I think it makes sense given the quadz result on N3 especially (and maybe even the alfred result for some of you for still suspect the hell out of him).

There is a hoop to jump through in order to believe Alchemist-scum that comes in the form of Tammy and "why give coin to town?", but let's talk about both of those things now. For one, immediately jumping out of the neighborhood with Tammy in order to be a useless shit and pretend to be not-Syryana is scummy. Why not use his free vig kill as an additional scumkill? Well, there is the matter of being neighborized by Tammy before he could even give it away, needing something to claim, and then not being able to make a magical kill appear without Tammy being dead. Scumteam might have had different priorities Night 1, didn't want to kill Tammy like that, so Syryana went for the towncred route. It's also a bit... strange? He waited so long to give his coin away/didn't look for someone to give his coin to? If town, he would be wanting to pass his coin off early and get a kill early, but talk of passing it off only came after he claimed, which again is strange.

- Point is that you expect Quadz to perform the kill and he didn't - and hence it's the ninja? Kinda weak. Good point on Alfred.
- The first part - "Tammy contacting him early made him full-claim" is a stretch - maybe worth seeing how much he\his scum teams talk fake claims in his earlier games. The fact that he waited is a decent point but I can see me having the same role and waiting out D1 for flips. D2 was a non-day because Amrun speedmislynch.

---

I *can* see Alchemist being ultra lazy town. (RL circumstances can really bog someone's game down; granted I need to read meta and other ongoing too to get a baseline). Can I suggest a compromise? You think Messiah has good chances to be scum. I think Messiah has good chances to be scum in both the 6-Chaos (since the conviction on SpyreX = a likely bus is good) and a bonus for the 3-evil theory as well.

At least Alchemist has the coin that needs explaining away - Messiah has really done nothing protown (leading a lynch, suspicion, role based) that comes to mind. Give TA a day - lynch Messiah today.

Unvote. Vote: Messiah

[ooba]

Give TA a day - lynch Messiah today.

This deserves it's own campaign button.

[Benmage]

Naut

riddle me this. In what game could a town llamarable/empire hydra be alive Day 9?

Riddle?

Tierce a threat? Doing nothing? Tammy a threat? Doing nothing... Oh right.. cause llamarable empire is scum. Period. Riddle riddle.

[Cephrir]

I kinda think TA might be claiming scum.

[ooba]

I kinda think TA might be claiming scum.

You're saying this and not voting him?

[Cephrir]

I still really want to review things before the day ends.

[SafetyDance]

Nacho, I'm still trying to scale all those fucking walls but at least you're semi-scum hunting as opposed to town-wanking as days before.

The big question for now is, how can you have Ooba AND Benmage in your townpile considering their play and how does that attest to Syry?

[SafetyDance]

Ninja'd - most sense today award goes to Ceph