Open 538: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[EspeciallyTheLies]

But if you wanna talk reactions... yours is about as bad as it gets.

[Kalimar]

VOTE: Kalimar

Someone just slid through the cracks of the cheery wagon while not having content yesterday

our content is about equal.

vote: DP

[Kalimar]

N1 cop. Zebe is innocent.

Will be back shortly as I want to look at yesterdays wagons again.

Why did you choose zebe?

Because he was under suspicion and

I thought there was a good chance of there being multiple N1 cops

. I'd originally sent in DocP for my own suspicions and then considered changing it to Bo because he was the top suspicion from yesterday but if there was another N1 cop I thought it would be better to target the second top for the possibility of double results.

what is this based on, ETL?

[Kalimar]

Thats pretty interesting lucky. Now then. What will happen when I flip town? Oh thats right, you will hang.

I got my result and lived to share it. My job is done. So go on, Lucky. Tell me how scummy I am.

what makes lucky scummy as opposed to misguided townie if you are town?

and your job isn't technically done until the scum die.

[Lucky2u]

Kalimar, my vote was BS, don't try to defend me as a misguided town. I wanted to reaction test ETL. She gets all annoyed and pissy as town when voted for. I'm not as happy as I could be with her reaction though because she was a slight bit sarcastic and arrogant with the "oh that's right you will hang" comment.

UNVOTE:

[Lucky2u]

VOTE: Kalimar

Someone just slid through the cracks of the cheery wagon while not having content yesterday

our content is about equal.

vote: DP

Are you guys talking post amounts or what? How are you guys arguing a concept that is hard to measure.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Thats a really nice backpedal Lucky.

I thought there was a good chance of another cop based on the description of the setup in the wiki. Lucky is suspicious because he is doing exactly what I expected from scum. I called him out for having suspicious votes on the wagons yesterday and in response, he tries to discredit me and my results, and follows it up with an OMGUS vote. Now, I'm fine with natural town suspicion. But Lucky didnt probe me about my reasoning (like Tammy did). He didnt ask me why I thought there could be another cop. He straight away tried to neutralize me. That's scummy as fuck.

VOTE: lucky2u

[EspeciallyTheLies]

And kalimar I'm talking about my PR. I'm a VT now with nothing to lose. So if Lucky really feels up to a 1v1 with me, I'm happy to oblige.

[Smudger]

VOTE: Boro

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Kalimar

BB I dont get this change in vote? what was your reason for the initial vote and what swayed you to change it?

[Lucky2u]

Thats a really nice backpedal Lucky.

Thanks, I try.

How many players have yet to show up today?

[anorway]

Deadline: (expired on 2014-01-18 19:00:00)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Vote Count 2.2

[L-6] Mr_Blonde
[L-6] Zebe
[L-6] Tammy
[L-6] BBmolla
[L-6] Smudger
[L-6] BoroPhil
[L-6] EspeciallyTheLies
[L-6] aptil
[L-5]

Lucky2u

: EspeciallyTheLies
[L-5]

DoctorPepper:

Kalimar

[L-4]

Kalimar:

DoctorPepper, BBmolla

Not voting (7): Lucky2u, Mr_Blonde, Zebe, Tammy, Smudger, BoroPhil, aptil

Mod note: Going to be V/LA until Wednesday, so don't expect any votecounts.

[BoroPhil]

ETL, I'm happy to sheep you here to an extent, but what are the motivations for Lucky doing what he did if he was scum? I suppose you could throw my BBscum gambit argument at me, but it seems a lot less likely here.

How convinced are we that ETL is town? Presumably this game could be littered with cop claims. Why would you clear someone if you were scum? To try and seem town? Maybe. That person would certainly be happy. To defend a team-mate? possibly.

We all now are pretty convinced that ETL and Zebe are town. What would it take to lynch either of them? Quite a lot, I'd suspect. and considering Zebe might well have been no.1 target today it could be quite a clever play. But obviously if we got one, we'd have 2 down.

If we believe ETL and Zebe are town, that's quite a result.

Who then is the most likely scumspect?

If Zebe is town, then the 3 leading wagons yesterday were all townies:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p5570660

[L-4] Zebe: BBmolla, Does Bo Know, BoroPhil
[L-3] Does Bo Know: Zebe, DoctorPepper, Smudger, Cheery Dog
[L-3] Cheery Dog: EspeciallyTheLies, Mr_Blonde, Lucky2u, Kalimar

Aptil was the only one not on a wagon. So I'd say scum in this position would be more happy to leave their vote on one of these wagons rather than flip-flop around and have to give new reasoning each time.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of Aptil not being on a wagon, you could argue it was disinterested town or scum trying to stay out of it. I'd probably lean towards the former at this stage, as it would have been pretty easy to get on one of those.

So 1.10

[L-6] DoctorPepper: Cheery Dog
[L-6] Wake88: Kalimar
[L-6] BBmolla aptil
[L-5] Zebe: BBmolla, Does Bo Know
[L-4] Does Bo Know: Zebe, DoctorPepper, Smudger
[L-3] Cheery Dog: EspeciallyTheLies, Mr_Blonde, Wake88, Lucky2u

1.11

[L-6] DoctorPepper: Cheery Dog
[L-6] BBmolla aptil
[L-4] Zebe: BBmolla, Does Bo Know, BoroPhil
[L-4] Does Bo Know: Zebe, DoctorPepper, Smudger
[L-3] Cheery Dog: EspeciallyTheLies, Mr_Blonde, Lucky2u, Kalimar

1.12

[L-6] BBmolla aptil
[L-4] Zebe: BBmolla, Does Bo Know, BoroPhil
[L-3] Does Bo Know: Zebe, DoctorPepper, Smudger, Cheery Dog
[L-3] Cheery Dog: EspeciallyTheLies, Mr_Blonde, Lucky2u, Kalimar

1.13

[L-6] BBmolla aptil
[L-6] Zebe: Smudger
[L-4] Does Bo Know: Zebe, DoctorPepper, Cheery Dog
[L-0] Cheery Dog: EspeciallyTheLies, Mr_Blonde, Lucky2u, Kalimar, BoroPhil, Does Bo Know, BBmolla

Zebe and Dr Pepper stayed resolutely on DBK.
ETL, Mr Blonde and Lucky stayed resolutely on Cheery.

Not sure if this essentially proves my case wrong with Zebe/ETL being there, but worth a discussion at least. and again means that we have to discuss the possibility of ETL/Zebe being scum together.

Vote for now is based on the above, his lack of anything else yesterday and a horrible vote on Kalimar today who looks town to me based on yesterday.

VOTE: DoctorPepper

[EspeciallyTheLies]

The scum motivation is the last line of my 756.

[BoroPhil]

if you are a cop though, and if lucky is scum, he knows you are a cop - why risk sticking his neck on the line? why not just go along with you? town's natural position will be to believe you.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

No boro. Conftowns are a threat to scum. Its much better to discredit the person and get off a mislynch.

[BoroPhil]

pretty sure you aren't conftown yet

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Ok. Are you scum with lucky? Because I dont see townie skepticism here. I see you defending lucky and trying to push an unfounded theory about a horrible scum gambit with zebe. Did you bother to think about the benefit to scum doing that? Its nothing. 1 for 1 is not good for scum; it's good for town. So lynch me if you like. But when I die, lucky will go next. And then you.

[BoroPhil]

overreaction slightly?

I'm not even pushing a lynch on you. I don't see why you wouldn't be happy to consider all possibilities if you are town. You aren't conftown, that is a fact. I'd say there is a strong possibility you are, and yes it probably would be an awful gambit. But it is a possibility.

Why would it be 1 for 1? You and Zebe are pretty much untouchable now.

[Zebe]

Ok, Day 2. Interesting stuff.

Both Bo and Cheery dead, wut? DBK NK, I don't really get it. Maybe to make me look suspicious, but that'd be a really simplistic scum tactic. Overly simplistic in my opinion. There was also a major wagon on Bo.

Oh, and apparently I'm conftown now (For some people). Surprising. There was talk about my lynch, I don't think this is a wretched scum plan. Except if it's exeptionally delicate scum plan.
I find ETL's reason for picking me instead of DBK is weird now when Bo is dead. Funny coincidence. Almost too funny. Although it gives me a strong townread of her, because it wouldn't make any sense if she'd be scum.

DP, I asked some questions back in 664. They're still valid questions.
VOTE: DoctorPepper
And the wagon moves!

Kalimar, y u so lurky?

FoS~

Come back plz and tell us your opinion about DBK nightkill.

And after everything else, 748...


...not exactly town.

[BBmolla]

VOTE: Boro

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Kalimar

BB I dont get this change in vote? what was your reason for the initial vote and what swayed you to change it?

Was lost on who is scum, so I voted Boro. Then I realized Kalimar was a better vote after seeing whomever voted them.

[BoroPhil]

basically two dreadful votes.

here is a question. if your day one gambit was so obviously town, why are you still alive?

[BBmolla]

Where have I ever said it was, I think the townreads on me because of that are silly, but I'm not going to argue against them if they're right for the wrong reasons.

[BBmolla]

I don't think DP is such a terrible vote fwiw. I just like a Kalimar vote better. And your contributions today have been decent.

[BoroPhil]

well fwiw that was a decent response. I have limited mafia experience but scum tend to get pretty entrenched in their views. I'm always (as town obv) more favourable to people who are prepared to change their views or at least question stuff. It would be easy for you as scum to say that people think you are town.

Which is why I think ETL's reaction above is way off.

He calls himself conftown. and Zebe doesn't even have to be his buddy, if he is scum it's a cracking play if Zebe is town.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Then lynch me. I'm in too many games anyway.