Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[sangres]

I don't know why I hate the above post so very much.

Sangres, do you guys think this post likely is made to a scum buddy?

As long as there isn't another fucking quicklynch Nacho and I will have a chance to talk through some stuff and get on the same page about our neighborhood. Probably tomorrow night.

[zMuffinMan]

btw whoever said aegor was pushing ssk yesterday and it looked town

hold on was reading cephrir's posts from yesterday and had something to bring up about that

[Angry Frat BROs]

On the one hand, he's not going to claim a result he couldn't back. On the other hand, him being scum going down, why would he truthfully claim a result on Skull that would clear Skull of being scum? Basically, it's fully possible for Skull to be scum, who SSK knew the result of and thus, could safely claim, in order to make Skull look better upon SSK's scumflip

[sangres]

FUCK WHAT THE RESULTS SAY. FUCK IT BEING INCRIMINATING.

Do you think Mastin-scum would stick his neck out that far for a scumbuddy? This goes a few steps beyond not bussing.

From the player who told me Mastin's love of bussing meant that wasn't a towntell.

Was that your other head last night or did I convince you?

I think it was actually something that mollie said that got me out of mastin-scum mode.

[Aegor]

Please help me understand how any of this discussion makes any sense at all. In my 'hood, I think gooner and sangres are town. Skull is leaning town at this point, unless there is distancing that does not feel like distancing. mollie is by far the best scum candidate.

If we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players? Unless there are independently strong scumreads within it, which does not appear to be the case.

Aegor has said somethings that look really explicitly scummy and I have a hard time seeing some of his thought process from town.

You can keep saying that, but that does not make it true.

Both mastin and muffin get added to my desired-vig list. I think mastin is scummier than zmuffin, which surprised me when I re-read. The attitude present in his earlier posts (before he started making unfounded assertions about alignment) in particular gave me good vibes. None of mastin's posts have been helpful in any way, nor is there any clear scumhunting intent behind them.

That MafiaSSK has managed to lurk this much is distressing. I am awaiting a kick-ass post after the prod.

This in particular seemed sketchy to me. There are other things.

Calling mafiaSSK out on being sketch, supporting an FS lynch around this time (but not SSK?) and not wanting either of them vigged.

1) Lynch scummy people. Vig useless people that could be scum. Hence the split. Plus the vig thing is facetious; cf. my similar posts in other games.
2) I called out MafiaSSK on being lurky. FS attracted my attention more, as did Kaze. I am sorry that I am not able to balance all 15+ players as well as other people.
3) Assume I am scum. Now tell me what my strategy is and how my posts are reconcilable with that strategy.



We should be looking at mollie, Kaze or within the 3-person neighborhood today.

[Angry Frat BROs]

If we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players? Unless there are independently strong scumreads within it, which does not appear to be the case.

Well there is likely 1 mafia and 1 SK left, so you tell me where you think those are divided up among the 3:5:5 still alive.

See the above img I posted to mastin.

We are lynching people we think are scummy.

I'm confirmed town. MS seems pretty town. Venny could be an SK maybe but Im having a hard time buying him as maf.

[Aegor]

Take a look at mollie's voting record. Last vote on FS. Earlier vote on Kagami. No vote on MafiaSSK.

Now consider the interaction between mollie and the known scum in her ISO. And mollie's general contribution to this game. Someone please explain the town mindset here.


My Kaze on case is long and well-established.

[zMuffinMan]

@whoever mentioned aegor's push on ssk pointing towards aegor being town

aegor didn't push ssk all that hard

these were his initial posts D2

Spoiler:

VOTE: MafiaSSK

Supports FS wagon but never votes and questions a vote on it.

In all seriousness, I'm down for this Flandre wagon. So yeah.

Pieguyn, what's your reasoning for the Flandre vote?

Kaze remains a great lynch.

o wait

Unvote
Vote: Metal Sonic

you win this time, nacho

Are you serious? MafiaSSK is very obviously scum.

hey mafiassk

are you just a full tracker?

If I'm correctly reading some of the hints that people have dropped, it sounds like there might be at least three separate Neighborhoods in this game. I originally thought that there had to be one Scum somewhere between you, AFB, and Metal Sonic, but if there are multiple Neighborhoods, then that theory might not be accurate. If there are three Neighborhoods, I wouldn't be at all surprised if at least one of them was all-Town. What do you think about the abundance of Neighborhoods and do you agree or disagree with my observations in this paragraph?

What hints were these that led you to think 3 neighborhoods?

UNVOTE

hey mafiassk

are you just a full tracker?

Yup.

Unvote

does bork ever include investigative roles that aren't gated in some way

VOTE: Kaze

what i don't like about this is the unnatural progression. his reasoning for voting ssk was meh but he seemed convinced that mafiassk was "very obviously scum" (the second quote there is the most unnatural part of this i think) - but then dropped it and voted kaze before:

Spoiler:

also i believe mafiassk is a tracker, and i believe he tracked ffery n1 (and probably also skull n2) - i just think these actions are more likely to come from a scum tracker than a town tracker

oh thank god
sorry, I skimmed like a motherfucker after SSK became obviously scum

Vote: MafiaSSK

I disagree with ffery's Metal Sonic scumread now.

Vote: mafiassk

so this was when the mafiassk picked up actual steam

and afterwards is when this happened

VOTE: SSK

Fine. You guys are boring.

VOTE: MafiaSSK

L-1

it looked like bussing a sinking ship

[Aegor]

If we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players? Unless there are independently strong scumreads within it, which does not appear to be the case.

Well there is likely 1 mafia and 1 SK left, so you tell me where you think those are divided up among the 3:5:5 still alive.

I think there is one maf in my neighborhood and I think it is mollie. I have not actually played with an SK before so that will be more difficult until I do some more research on theory and other games with competent SKs.

[mastin2]

You can trust us on that read and get voting Skull.

I do want to trust you, though. Soyeah, there's that, too.

SSK tracked us on N1, so therefore we weren't the scum NK target. That means that improbable as it sounds Varsoon was the NK target.

And that points to Skull.

Not that I disagree with Skull being scum, but you're ignoring the possibility of scum killing pie and the serial killer taking out Varsoon.

(Also, AP, pronoun trouble. She. SHE. Not he. Habits die hard, I know.)

I think the scum in our neighborhood are either Skull or Aegor.

I guess I do, and I also lean towards Skull.

her interactions with the Flandre wagon AND MafiaSSK in general would be going for broke if she IS scum.

(AP, you, uh...kinda should know better than this. Yes, I DO go for broke as scum. I'm not groupscum because of the Cephrir read, but if Cephrir had been town, you darn-well know I would do this as scum for Flandre and SSK.)

Is matin claiming scum? I cant even tell anymore.

Quite frankly, it'd take a cop innocent on me for me

not

to be scum. >_<

No joke. So dont even worry about this.

Alright.


At this point, I guess that my top candidates for scum would be Skull or Aegor,
And that my top candidates for serial killer would be (approximately most-least) Kaze, (the other of the two above), Metal Sonic, or Venmar.

But I don't know.

[zMuffinMan]

I thought that his insight looked too good to come from town

is this because i said mafiassk is a scum tracker? coz that just seemed like a rather obvious conclusion to me

i dunno - claim reminded me of mala's claim in xenogears (incidentally, this game is playing out very similar to xenogears so far)

[Angry Frat BROs]

Now consider the interaction between mollie and the known scum in her ISO. And mollie's general contribution to this game. Someone please explain the town mindset here.

IDK, I think mollie's poor voting record most likely comes from town who doesn't know what its doing than scum intentionally avoiding bussing.

I find it funny that you are trying to point to a lack of town motivation here (when its just derp-motivated) instead of arguing that is just likely scum-motivated.

[mastin2]

(incidentally, this game is playing out very similar to xenogears so far)

Except that this time, I'm the girl in the dark rather than the one connecting all the dots. :/

[Aegor]

IDK, I think mollie's poor voting record most likely comes from town who doesn't know what its doing than scum intentionally avoiding bussing.

I find it funny that you are trying to point to a lack of town motivation here (when its just derp-motivated) instead of arguing that is just likely scum-motivated.

Something cannot be derp-motivated. It is either town or anti-town in motivation; whether it is stupid is a different question.

Explain why I should think mollie is an unlucky idiot, because that is what you are asking.

And then explain why I am more likely scum.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Explain why I should think mollie is an unlucky idiot, because that is what you are asking.

No, I'm saying that there is a very reasonable explanation for mollie's voting record being not-great: it happens. Sometimes townies are wrong or not involved in the game as they should be (LIKE MOLLIE HERE) and their play is lagging or reads not great because of that.

If you tried to argue that Mollie was being BLATANTLY SCUM MOTIVATED, I'd have bought your post more. You trying to argue that her voting record + cryptic "interactions with flipped scum" is not town-motivated is....dubious? I mean her voting record could definitely be from town and I didn't see anything in her ISO that looked particularly bad wrt flipped scum other than her townreading SSK and Cephrir early on and calling Flandre a null-scum. Even still I wouldn't call that "interactions" since that really just boils down to the same thing as your first point that her reads were subpar.

--

Now, why are you calling Mollie out specifically here when you ALSO in your SAME POST said you'd rather look for scum in the smaller neighborhood? Was there anyone in particular neighborhood hunting or are you just having your cake and eating it too by dissuading people from looking at your group and simultaneously casing on mollie?

--

Mollie is certainly not the only person to misread people this game. I -started- the Kag wagon, was not voting SSK (despite telling mastin the evidence looked incriminating) and only sheeped the FS wagon once other things didn't go through. Why are you not looking at me for the same reason you are looking at mollie? I also tunneled Ceph D1 just to mostly give it up D2. I even voted people other than SSK on D2 pretty exclusively.

Same for mastin. Hopped off the FS wagon blatantly when CWs were happening, adamant about SSK town, early vote on Kagami. THAT voting record is worse than mollies yet you are voting mollie.

[Angry Frat BROs]

(Also, AP, pronoun trouble. She. SHE. Not he. Habits die hard, I know.)

I know, I felt bad. Getting way too into this game, not error checking myself

[Angry Frat BROs]

At this point, I guess that my top candidates for scum would be Skull or Aegor,
And that my top candidates for serial killer would be (approximately most-least) Kaze, (the other of the two above), Metal Sonic, or Venmar.

I can get behind this.

[Aegor]

AFB, bad voting records frequently happen. But voting records are often revealing when the actual votes are considered in more detail.

Spoiler:

mollie had occasional reads throughout Day 1. A naked vote for me in post 440 is followed by a justification much later:

awful entrance from aegor. added to the scumpile 4 sure. reasons being he didn't explain the vote probably because he didn't want to claim scum sheeping cephrir. CAUGHT.

We have a strong scumread on Kaze in post 1167 with no vote. Mollie states intent to hammer FS in post 1282 without commenting on the wagon. Her play for the entire day thus far has IMO been reactionary and half-hearted. Moreover, despite having apparently strong eads, she never actually pushes for me or Kaze. She is more than willing to go with the flow, but only actually hammers FS in post 1542, with hella posts in between. This is anticipated by her ambivalence as expressed in post 1283. Post 1400 includes a read list that has Cephrir as town and mafiaSSK as emphatic town!. Explicitly sheeps AFB in post 1670 and votes Kagami, which she later says is a result of a perceived crumb by AFB. No scumhunting at all. Then comes her incredibly bizarre case on mastin because of his position on leashing the SK, which coincidentally occurred at the height of MafiaSSK wagon. She does not actually comment on the SSK wagon at all, and of course is not on it by the end of the day.

It is not just the reads, which have been proven terrible. It is the utter lack of commitment to any case and chronically nonexistent scumhunting. It is the lack of comment on the first wagon until asked and on the second at all. It is the attempt to direct interest away from SSK and onto mastin.

So when you say things like this:

Even still I wouldn't call that "interactions" since that really just boils down to the same thing as your first point that her reads were subpar.

I am trying to suppress my anger, given that I more than any other player in this game has presented transparent and reasoned cases against those players I find especially lynch-worthy and you have done jack shit to justify your suspicion of me while blasting me for being "cryptic" and "dubious." I am actually kind of offended.

Now, why are you calling Mollie out specifically here when you ALSO in your SAME POST said you'd rather look for scum in the smaller neighborhood?

I never said I would rather look for scum in the smaller neighborhood.

Was there anyone in particular neighborhood hunting or are you just having your cake and eating it too by dissuading people from looking at your group and simultaneously casing on mollie?

Neither, since I have no problem with someone in my neighborhood being lynched.

Same for mastin. Hopped off the FS wagon blatantly when CWs were happening, adamant about SSK town, early vote on Kagami. THAT voting record is worse than mollies yet you are voting mollie.

I would also be fine lynching mastin, as anyone in my 'hood can confirm. I would actually rather lynch mastin than anyone in the three-person neighborhood, but if people are insistent on the neighborhoods, which I actually oppose, mastin is out of reach. And mollie's post 2375, clearly an attempt to direct attention, felt off. Especially given that there is no trajectory beyond a one-line assertion that Gooner is scum in our 'hood QT last night.

[Aegor]

@whoever mentioned aegor's push on ssk pointing towards aegor being town

aegor didn't push ssk all that hard...
what i don't like about this is the unnatural progression. his reasoning for voting ssk was meh but he seemed convinced that mafiassk was "very obviously scum" (the second quote there is the most unnatural part of this i think)

How is that suspicious? MafiaSSK was very obviously scum. And guess what? He flipped scum. My reasoning for voting SSK -- his position on the FS wagon in addition to the N1 shenanigans -- was more solid than ANYTHING ANYONE had presented on anyone else that day.

- but then dropped it and voted kaze before:...
it looked like bussing a sinking ship

You are being so shitty right now. I had been suspicious of Kaze since Day 1. I was perfectly willing to lynch either of Kaze or MafiaSSK, as I stated in post 2028:

VOTE: MafiaSSK...
Kaze remains a great lynch.

I had voted Kaze earlier in post 2019. The Kaze vote is explained in post 2132. In post 2144 I repeat my desire either for a Kaze or MafiaSSK lynch:

My take is that either you or MafiaSSK dies today.

And honestly, mastin's reluctance to lynch SSK makes me want to lynch SSK more. I will probably move my vote soon

.

My vote switch is completely anticipated, yet you ignore the trajectory completely to make your case. In that same post, I resist mastin's attempt to clear SSK.

Could you please explain how the hell it makes sense for me to push a bus through on my buddy after another player has presented me with a big-ass opening?

You also conveniently ignore my order that someone hammer in post 2211, repeated again in post 2311, not to mention my insistence that SSK could be a Maf Tracker in post 2328.

[ActionDan]

Update your game ap

[Angry Frat BROs]

Update your game ap

I haven't forgotten about it.

Aegor....I'm a little torn I guess? His defense pings me for a few reasons and his OMGUS at zMuffin felt a bit forced.

Buuut I could kind of see his narrative coming from town.

[Skullduggery]

Gooner, why did you give Aegor a free pass to Townsville so readily in your wagon analysis in 2365, 2366, and 2368?

SSK tracked us on N1, so therefore we weren't the scum NK target. That means that improbable as it sounds Varsoon was the NK target.

And that points to Skull.

I'll ask you one more time: Why does Varsoon's death incriminate me? Maybe if I ask this same question enough times, you'll actually answer me.

Ascetic reflexively RB's actions targeting them, yeah?

Anyone have their ability inexplicably fail lately?

What purpose does this question serve? We already know that Cephrir was an Ascetic.

Nacho strongly thinks Skull, and also sees a Skull/Varsoon connection.

Since Nacho doesn't seem to want to explain this nonsensical connection between Varsoon and I, can

you

try to explain the reasoning behind it? This is starting to piss me off.

I dont think mastin would have shot Cephrir last night, I think he would have shot me if he were SK.

Is SK-Mastin shooting Cephrir unlikely simply because you think you were a bigger priority or do you have other reasons for suspecting that SK-Mastin would not have shot Cephrir?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5695358

I can't get over how much vomit this post brings to my mouth though ^

Yeah, my Rolecop-SSK theory was wrong. Shockingly, I have been known to be wrong from time to time while playing Mafia. Are you expecting a formal apology from me or something?

[Skullduggery]

at the very least, i'm not interested in guessing what is or isn't the case here since it seems irrelevant except for people who are assuming one of {AD, mafiassk} must be scum who performed a kill on sangres - and they're dumb

People who deduce that either ActionDan or SSK must be Scum because of Cabd's Watcher results are dumb...even though you ultimately agree with the conclusions that those players reached and supported the SSK lynch.

What happened between 2228 and this post?

. . . . . ?

uh

nothing?

So SSK went from being "Yeah, he's totally a Town Tracker who is tracking people he suspects" to "Yeah, he's totally Scum and we should definitely lynch him" in the span of a few pages, but nothing changed between those few pages to cause such a jarring shift in your opinion of SSK. Sounds legit.

i think mafiassk is scum and i don't think he was trying to kill sangres

so tell me why mafiassk goes on and on about me being scum D1, questions pieguy about voting flandre, doesn't mention sangres at all (or skull) and then tracks sangres N1 and skull N2?

fuck, tell me why mafiassk completely dropped the

only

scum read he was really confident about D1 in order to track... what? sangres? then skull? seriously? because he found skull scummy?

yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah mafiassk is totally a town tracker tracking his suspects

Unvote

because i have to :<

"Maybe if I point out how Towny SSK's night actions seem, we can dispel this wagon on him."

also, none of those explain where your read on me went, mafiassk, coz you were really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really fucking confident about it D1 and i don't think a single night phase after a scum lynch that i wasn't on and even spoke out against was going to change your mind about me

mastin i dare you to fucking read what mafiassk wrote about me D1 and tell me you think what he's saying is genuine or makes sense here

"Wait, no, it's not working. Oh well, I tried."

VOTE: MAFIASSK

will my vote remain this time? who knows?

VOTE: zMuffinMan

ISO MafiaSSK and look at his interactions with Muffin. Lurky, noncommittal SSK spends an inordinate amount of time addressing Muffin, and all of those interactions carry the pungent aroma of Scum buddies distancing. I'm not the only one who smells it, am I?

[Aegor]

I am liking Skull's posts more and more. Will review claims made therein.

[borkjerfkin]

wefw