Mini 1543--Natirasha's On Parole!(Game Over)

[Guyett]

cabd you're pretty obv town already.

recent posting stats aligned with votes means one of if not two of myself, ns and nacho must be scum.
tbh it all depends who you scum read most at this stage

[Cabd]

well, muffin checks in then we move on.

[Cabd]

recent posting stats aligned with votes means one of if not two of myself, ns and nacho must be scum

Is there a reason you left selkies out of this?

[zMuffinMan]

will quick hammer for win when not on phone so i can hammer with a funny gif when i declare the win

[Cabd]

Lol k.

[zMuffinMan]

heh you think im joking

[Cabd]

Even if I didn't, I can't stop you~

[Cabd]

Well technically I could hammer first but eh.

[zMuffinMan]

i know you can't stop it, that's why im not in any rush. troll lyfe

[zMuffinMan]

Tomorrow will be more interesting, but I'm voting you out of the gate and I'm not moving: I'm also pretty confident I will win that 1v1 regardless of who you choose to kill (ffery will see my towniness the quickest, probably, but I doubt Cabd would fuck up that horribly and I have faith in Guyett staying the townblock 2.0 path), so it seems like we're at the end of the road now.

btw, since it's basically confirmed that the only possible player i can be scum with is notscience, i'm going to make myself innocent child status now and show that you clearly have no idea what you're talking about (which is going to be a kick in the balls for you if you think you can "win" a 1v1 with me

and i'm going to do this in two ways, and i'm sure you're going to call both wifom or inconclusive or whatever, but whatever way you spin the tinfoil here, i am very obvtown. the first way will be assessing my own play in regards to notscience (this is, i suppose, less reliable, since i am... somewhat notorious for trying to play against what's expected when i'm scum, but whatever, i'll put it all on the table) and the first way will be an analysis of what happened N2 and why that makes me the most obvtown motherfucker that ever obvtowned (and this *should* be very reliable to anyone who knows anything about my scum game, because even if i _do_ mix things up occasionally to manipulate people, what happened N2 would basically require me playing extremely sub-optimally for no purpose or gain JUST so i could bring it up in a situation like this, but more on this in a bit)

so first, let's look at my notscience interactions. i *think* it's rather obvious that the way i've treated notscience in this day phase alone is significantly different to how i'd ever treat a scum buddy when i know they're under pretty heavy suspicion given the remaining player list (and reading flow is... probably one of my biggest strengths as scum, so if you think i wouldn't have seen the notscience suspicion coming today then you're kidding yourself. i'm town and i saw it coming, there was no way i wouldn't have seen it coming as scum. so basically in order to think i'm scum with notscience, you'd have to think i'm playing completely contrary to how i would normally play as scum for... no gain other than using this argument, i guess? it's not even a strong argument, though, because the player list in this game knows i mix things up a bit as scum, sooooooooooooooo basically you would have to assume i'm scum doing something completely off the wall for... the sake of confusion and nothing else? i dunno. like the far more obvious answer is that i'm town, but whatever, this isn't a very strong point.

i think the biggest thing i've done re: notscience this game is point out what i thought was a town slip (and i still think it possibly is a town slip but i'm not as convinced as i was before). this, i think, is the strongest piece of evidence i'm not scum with notscience. like even if you think i mix things up a bit as scum, this is still pretty fucking strong evidence i'm not scum with him. i simply don't do that as scum (though i might in future just for shits and giggles, but whatever). in order to think this is a scum-scum interaction, you would have to assume that i was paying very, very close attention to everything my scum buddy was writing (or just coincidentally was paying attention to what was otherwise a rather ordinary post), was in a frame of mind where i was able to recognise and spin that as a town slip, and then thought it would be convincing enough that other people would agree with me or something (which didn't happen).

i mean, you can look at virtually everything else i've written about notscience in this game and *try* to spin some sort of scum motivation from it, but you're not going to find it, because it's not there. same with goodfather (and again, i could easily find similar interactions with goodfather that basically make no sense from the perspective i'm goodfather's scum buddy - like the way i treated his crumbing up to his claim, for instance).

what's more is that i'd expect you to recognise how dumb it is to think i'm scum here, but you don't, so you're either pretending to be oblivious here or you're scum. and all i'm trying to figure out now is whether you're bussing here or whether you're hoping someone hammers notscience for the win.

i'll go over why the N2 stuff basically makes me conftown in a bit coz this, i think, actually is pretty conclusive evidence i'm not scum. key here being why cabd was blocked, why no kill occurred, etc

[zMuffinMan]

ok

so

no kill happened N2, and night ended early that night, which means no kill happening was not because of a failed action submission

scum roleblocked cabd, scum also either intentionally no-killed or targeted cabd

these are the premises by which i'm going to essentially prove i'm town here

firstly, why would scum roleblock cabd? the only legitimate reason to roleblock cabd is if you think one of your own is going to be shot at. cabd floatde the idea of making the lynched player D2 (IK) a vengeful, and his list was bert, aronis, mafiassk - all of them were town, so that wasn't the reason cabd was blocked. so let's look at what else cabd was saying before the day ended, and oh, hey, look at what we have here. cabd floating the idea of vigging nacho. absolutely no mention of vigging notscience, absolutely no mention of vigging me, and at that point he was thinking that of {mafiassk, goodfather} mafiassk was the scum in that duo so he wasn't going to vig goodfather either. so why the fuck would a scum team consisting of {muffin, notscience, goodfather} ever fucking block cabd? the answer is they wouldn't. because that would be utterly stupid. the smarter approach that night would have been roleblocking mafiassk and killing cabd and letting cabd shoot freely at a list of players that (in a theoretical world where ns, goodfather and i are the scum team) would be an entirely town list - this woulda meant mylo D3 AND suspicion of mafiassk because of cabd dying for the people not following why this is the optimal play

now, like, anyone who knows anything about my scum play knows that, regardless of my day play sometimes being changed up for manipulation purposes, my night play is very organised, thorough, and planned with efficiency in mind. there is like no way i'd ever pass up an opportunity to get a D3 mylo in this game, especially when a theoretical team of goodfather, ns and me would have been in a fucking amazing position with D3 mylo given the game state at the time. so basically this alone should make me IC-level conftown, but let's look at what else happened that night.

no kill occurred, which means either scum shot at cabd and were blocked by mafiassk or they intentionally no-killed here. i'm just going to posit that i'm not stupid enough to shoot at cabd without shooting a claimed doc who was clearly going to protected the claimed vig. so the only real explanation for the lack of kill here, assuming me-scum, is a no kill gambit for some reason.

now, the only reason for a no kill gambit at that point, really, was to spread paranoia about mafiassk not being dead or something. or... i'm missing something entirely here and there's another possible explanation for it, i dunno. i'm just going to assume it was for paranoia-about-mafiassk purposes

if this were my goal with a no kill gambit, the dumbest thing i could do would be to, you know, shut down all avenues that would make this gambit work - which is exactly what i did D3, when i talked about why no kill occurred and speculated it was because scum wanted to spread paranoia about mafiassk. durr. i mean, not only is this suboptimal play in comparison to, say, shooting. the fucking doc or blocking the doc and shooting the vig, but like, there's no sensible explanation for my play here if the no kill gambit had any purpose. you could argue WIFOM here, but given the block on cabd and this, you'd have to be treading pretttttttttttttty fucking deep into tinfoil theory to think there's any merit to the argument

fact of the matter is that N2 makes absolutely no sense if i were scum with notscience

it does, on the other hand, make sense if, say, nacho is scum

go figure

[zMuffinMan]

like, even with my sparkly banner and shit, if you legitimately think there's even a remote possibility i'm scum here, you're either off your face high on something, in which case give me some of it, or you're really, really bad at mafia and cannot see the very, very obvious

or you're scum

whatever

tl;dr i'm about as obvtown as obvtown can be

[zMuffinMan]

though i am actually interested in seeing what nacho says about 3535

or anyone still doubting i'm town

coz

N2 makes me pretty fucking obvtown

WIFOM is literally the only possible thing you could say about it if you still think it's possible i'm scum but then you'd have to argue WHY i would do that over the optimal play

so

yeah

[zMuffinMan]

btw nachoooooooooooooo

if you were hoping to make people paranoid about me

this was probably the worst fucking game you could have chosen .to do it in

lol

[Guyett]

Muffin and Cabd are town

NS is scum

At the minute I'm leaning more towards Nacho being the scum partner than Selkies

[Nachomamma8]

Guyett, can you explain why Muffin is town?

[zMuffinMan]

oh nacho

[zMuffinMan]

if you think i'm scum, can you read and respond to 3535 in particular. don't care if you call 3534 wifom (even though it's really not), i just want to see what you have to say about 3535

preferably in the next 8 hours so i have something fun to read when i wake up

night

[Guyett]

Cabd
Selkies
zMuffinMan
notscience
Nachomamma8
Guyett

Only possible scum teams are:

notscience Cabd
notscience Selkies
notscience Muffin
notscience Nacho
notscience Guyett
Cabd Selkies
Cabd Muffin
Cabd Nacho
Cabd Guyett
Selkies Muffin
Selkies Nacho
Selkies Guyett
Muffin Nacho
Muffin Guyett
Nacho Guyett

if cabd was scum with anyone other than notscience he'd have hammered by now, likewise with muffin

notscience Cabd
notscience Selkies
notscience Muffin
notscience Nacho
notscience Guyett
Selkies Nacho
Selkies Guyett
Nacho Guyett

Cabd and muffin are very likely town so lets remove them


notscience Selkies
notscience Nacho
notscience Guyett
Selkies Nacho
Selkies Guyett
Nacho Guyett

from my POV the only viable scum teams are

notscience Selkies
notscience Nacho
Selkies Nacho

and I seriously doubt selkies and nacho is a scum team.

[Guyett]

Guyett, can you explain why Muffin is town?

because he can only be scum with notscience
also 3 town neighbours is more likely than 2 town one scum imo at this stage.
and his recent posting has been quite townie

[Nachomamma8]

"Look at my Notscience interactions: I would have seen it coming and I would have had better interactions with him if I were scum". Notscience suspicions coming from Nacho and Guyett, unexplained votes at the beginning of the day are probably not what he predicted. Those votes staying there, also probably not what he predicted. So, what does scum Muffin do when he finds himself in an odd position? He turns it around, uses it to make him look town: unfortunately, it doesn't make him look town. Being able to predict flow means that you dictate interactions, and when you're dictating your own interactions, there's no path that makes you town, especially when the path taken is the most scumvenient. It's also strange he saw Notscience suspicion coming and didn't attempt to defend his strong townread at all, and it's strange how he's letting said townread go now.

Town slip observation: Notscience drops a fake townslip. Muffin points out a fake townslip. He says he would never do this, and his evidence: his word. I suppose I could get into why you don't take people at their word in these sorts of games, but it's something that should be pretty obvious for all involved.

Why would scum roleblock Cabd? Fuck if I know. There's not a whole lot of reasons anyone would Roleblock him night 2 if you're protecting the scumteam, I guess. I don't think ScumNacho would be afraid of Cabd shooting him, considering I'm a far more competent player than Cabd's normal policy vigs and still unclaimed so losing PRcho would be a pretty shitty risk Cabd wouldn't take.

I don't really understand who the Day 2 no kill gambit doesn't apply to. I don't really see what purpose the thing served in the first place. Do you understand why it makes him town, Guyett? I don't.

[Nachomamma8]

Guyett, can you explain why Muffin is town?

because he can only be scum with notscience
also 3 town neighbours is more likely than 2 town one scum imo at this stage.
and his recent posting has been quite townie

3 town neighbors is more likely why again?

[Nachomamma8]

You also never explained why his recent posting was townie.

[zMuffinMan]

unexplained votes at the beginning of the day are probably not what he predicted

heh

i predicted it and i'm town

there's no way i wouldn't have predicted it as scum

like reading flow really is one of my better strengths as scum, i might fully explain this at some point in the future, though i think nati knows what i'm referring to here since i've told him about a personal scum tell of mine that involves reading flow (which i suppose is no longer applicable because i know about it now)

if you think i'm scum here, you're better off arguing it from the perspective that i knew it was coming and based my play around it

coz otherwise your argument is just dumb

Muffin points out a fake townslip. He says he would never do this, and his evidence: his word.

that is an oversimplification of what i actually said and misses the point entirely, but like i said, i do not care if you try to use wifom here, the main reason i'm obvtown is what i said in 3535

Why would scum roleblock Cabd? Fuck if I know. There's not a whole lot of reasons anyone would Roleblock him night 2 if you're protecting the scumteam, I guess. I don't think ScumNacho would be afraid of Cabd shooting him, considering I'm a far more competent player than Cabd's normal policy vigs and still unclaimed so losing PRcho would be a pretty shitty risk Cabd wouldn't take.

I don't really understand who the Day 2 no kill gambit doesn't apply to. I don't really see what purpose the thing served in the first place. Do you understand why it makes him town, Guyett? I don't.

lol

you
are
missing
the
point
entirely

read 3535 properly and try to refute the actual points there if you're going to insist i'm scum

i'll do a tl;dr version of it

optimal play for a scum team of {goodfather, ns, muffin} N2 - block mafiassk, kill cabd, let cabd shoot at town players (his list was basically you, aronis, bert or something - there was literally no mention of notscience, goodfather and i being potential vig candidates) - also had we blocked mafiassk and killed cabd and let cabd shoot from his list of town players, then it would have been mylo D3 and mafiassk woulda been under suspicion coz of cabd death
this didn't happen
instead scum blocked cabd and no kill gambit

so you must think i played suboptimally, for no reason (coz wifom doesn't cut it as a reason here)

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Hi

I'm on a plane to Hawaii and there are words on this page

Gimme like a day ok