Mini 1558 - VisCon: Crossroads [Game Over]

[Brian Skies]

He's also been posting more 'elsewhere'.

Although I agree with you that Hiplop is concerning, I don't like this tell.

Also, what does dispersion heuristic mean?

I can't tell that this is actually making you feel worse about the neil wagon (the last thing you really say about it is that 'you opposed it until [something he said] happened (118)') because you don't really take any stance about it here so I'm using the last stance you did give. I'd have expected 236 to contain something about being worried that neil was flipping town if you were really that concerned that people were sheeping Majiffy with no reasoning (because if you thought this was a wagon on scum and people were bussing, this should be exciting, not worrying).

I didn't like one of Konowa's posts because it didn't resonate with me at all, but I wasn't convinced he was scum because some of his posting felt genuine to me.

The issue I had with the flowcharting had nothing to do with bussing (and I still have no idea how you keep coming to this conclusion), but that people seemed to be sheeping Majiffy for the sake of the flowchart. It looks like an easy way for scum to jump onto a wagon and avoid suspicion. And if the wagon had been on scum, I think his scumbuddies would at least have tried to make a harder push elsewhere, especially as deadline was drawing closer.

re: getting to the root of the flowcharting - how do you feel about Majiffy so far considering his answer to you and his posts today?

It's concerning. I'd think that town would be interested in how people got onto his wagon or why they were sheeping him, but you said this was Majiffy's general MO. However, I liked the way he handled his wagon towards the end of the day and pushed the wagon through on a VT claim. It looks town-motivated.

Considering that I haven't seen any alternate reason, I am again default to reasoning I have seen. Feel free to correct me instead of just implying I'm wrong and not elaborating.

I'm actually just sheeping Desp because I think he's town and Desp seems convinced that Bait's scum. I was still lukewarm about Desp's Bait read, but we both saw the same thing with regards to havingfitz's entrance and I moved over.

Wanted to bring this up earlier about Who:

Who went out of his way to attempt to get on the wagon at the end of the day (not even bothering to wait to see if the self-vote counted).

I would not expect this from scum dealing with a town wagon.

Why can't you see scum doing this? It's not like Neil wasn't going to get lynched. Any blame for the wagon could have just been deflected.

I think GIF was killed for fear, not for a crumb.

What makes you think this?

[Majiffy]

... people seemed to be sheeping Majiffy for the sake of the flowchart. It looks like an easy way for scum to jump onto a wagon and avoid suspicion.

Hence why we'll have more success hunting

off

the wagon to start. Scum sheeping and town sheeping are nearly identical.

What makes you think this?

The closest he had to a crumb, as far as I can see, is "I won't be living to d2" or whatever. That's a ballsy position for scum to push claiming PR-tell. His suspects are Who and (to a lesser extent [RVS] but highly plausible in my mind) NS. I can see both of these players offing him because of his unwillingness to work with them / scumreading them.

[borkjerfkin]

Why can't you see scum doing this? It's not like Neil wasn't going to get lynched. Any blame for the wagon could have just been deflected.

Why even put oneself in the position to incur that blame in the first place?

The closest he had to a crumb, as far as I can see, is "I won't be living to d2" or whatever. That's a ballsy position for scum to push claiming PR-tell. His suspects are Who and (to a lesser extent [RVS] but highly plausible in my mind) NS. I can see both of these players offing him because of his unwillingness to work with them / scumreading them.

GIF's latest scumreads were {Desp, Pie, Gaiden, Who}. NS was definitely not on there (GIF had been reading him as town since very early in the game)

[borkjerfkin]

Well, since no one else wanted to do it, I did it.

Fitz catchup meta.

This game for reference: 373, 423

Town Fitz Catchups:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p5390985
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p5516360

Scum Fitz Catchups:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p5609520
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p5541724

The catchups in this game are actually considerably more IIoA than I've ever seen in ANY of the catchups listed here, even the scum ones. But the superficiality from the scum catchups is kinda there; Moreover, I don't really see any similarities here to what I see in either of the town catchups where he does get down and dirty, call people out for stuff, and engages the majority of slots.

Here it kinda just seems he's suspecting people for suspecting him, and he doesn't have a meta for being an OMGUSy player from the cursory look I've seen and what I remember from Open 505 (town me, town fitz). I actually don't really like the reason that Fitz finally jumped on Desp - I can actually see why Desp brought up my comment from yesterday because I did call something Bait did scummy even if I think he got the wrong overall idea about my read on the slot at the time.

Surprisingly (to me, since I was leaning Bait town), I am inclined to agree with Desp here.

Shift Desp toward more town
Shift Fitz toward more scum
There is still sorting and rereading I need to do to resolve my conflicting opinions but I guess they're probably not scum together?

Brian stays where he is for now because he's not really the one pushing Fitz, and I'm not thrilled about:

I'm actually just sheeping Desp because I think he's town and Desp seems convinced that Bait's scum. I was still lukewarm about Desp's Bait read, but we both saw the same thing with regards to havingfitz's entrance and I moved over.

Mainly because 1) Desp called it a meta read so I'm finding it hard for Brian to know what Desp saw and 2) this isn't really a satisfactory response to the line of his 'can't you see there are other reasons to see Baitslot scum?' => my 'such as?' => 'well I guess I'm sheeping Desp mostly and fitz' catchup is bad for [unexplained]'. That's a dodgy response.

[havingfitz]

Majiffy...when replacing into a D2 game 15 pages long...original thoughts (in my case at least) might not surface until after acknowledging what has been said and done prior to the aforementioned replace in.  And considering you're such a big advocate of people just sheeping you, you asking for original thought is funny. 
 

---

 
So looking a bit closer at Desp:
 
Bait calls you out for buddying pie and suddenly Bait and Kalimer become each other's  shadow (wrt voting pie).  Talk about pulling shit out of your arse.  What makes Bait and Kalimer shadows of each other (and you think Kalimer is town atp btw)? 
 
How is Bait voting pie anymore of a shadow than you "shadowing" pie onto Who?  Or notscience (or YOU) "shadowing" Majiffy onto Konowa...or any number of other vote combos?  i.e. you're making cases out of nothing.  Which is in fact something
 
And after a few subtle jabs of suspicion towards Bait Desp votes him because he (Bait) KNOWS NEILS SLOT IS TOWN! 
 
Question to Desperado....How is not thinking the leading wagon is on scum...a scum tell?  Have you

ever

stated you'd rather have a No Lynch rather than support a wagon you disagreed with?  And note...Bait wasn't voting for a No Lynch...he actually had his suspects and was voting one of them (pie).  I assume you have been on wagons that weren't the day's lynch before.  Yes?  So another misplaced sky-is-falling suspicion towards Bait.  (2 for 2)
 
Wrt Desp Post 242:
- Bait not agreeing with the wagon de jour is not a scum tell.
- A) No one was accusing Konowa of being useless iirc and the only thing he was accused of that I can see was his "forced" Post 24...which was an absurd accusation.  And how was Konowa being anymore useless than half the players in this game?  I would argue he was far from most useless.
- B) He flaked once?  You mean he was prodded?  Isn't that another way of saying useless?
- C) Not a great entrance?  You mean Post 24 again?  Still weak.
 
Then you go on to say Bait had no legitimate justification for feeling like Konowa/neil was town WHEN YOU had failed to provide legitimate justification for BOTH your suspicions towards Konowa and YOUR town read on pie.
 
 
Desp professes his lack of confidence that neil is scum.
 
Annnnnd ~90 minutes later he's back on neil.
 
Wrt Desp Post 268...you point out the inconsistencies in hiplop's voting on Konowa (fair enough...and largely what you have done as well) and THEN....you decree that hiplop needs to die in your very next post.  For what?  For thinking Konowa might be town (sound familiar) but sheeping majiffy on him anyway (sound familiar)? 
 
If you were certain enough that Konowa/neil was scum to have your vote on him...why would you be calling out hiplop for doing the exact same thing you were?
 
Wrt Desp Post 400:
- What does majority town on a wagon matter?  FYI every lynch wagon is majority town :roll:
- My catch up was scum me...how so?  What games where I replaced in as scum are you referencing?  (a.k.a. Desp is throwing baseless shit at the wall like his earlier suspicions towards Bait and hoping something sticks).  Oh wait....you got nothing.
 
Wrt Desp Posts 416/417:
- Bait never used the phrase "full of scumbutts"...who are you quoting?
- 2 of his 3 scum reads were on the Konowa wagon and the 3rd was on him.  Was 2/3s or your suspects on the same wagon (and that wagon not being your 3rd suspect's) not reason enough to POE town read Konowa?  That plus your weakass reasons for suspecting Konowa yourself?  Which you weren't even that certain of?  And you have absolutely no way of knowing when someone (who is no longer in the game) is being genuine.  That's another baseless accusation. 
 
And your comment that Bait would have been ok to say the wagon was scummy earlier is worthless becuase the last time Bait posted prior to saying the wagon was scummy...was when Konowa had 4 votes of which only yours was from a suspect of his.
 
 

tl:dr;

Desp is scum.

[Desperado]

@ Bork: I based my initial read on this game

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=33008

[Desperado]

And that Fitz post is hilarious.

[Desperado]

Pretty much everything he says is either taken out of context, a misunderstanding on his part, or both.

[Desperado]

But I walled with scum-Fitz once; not doing it again. He's scum and he is getting lynched today.

[borkjerfkin]

@ Bork: I based my initial read on this game

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=33008

I probably didn't read it cause it wasn't a replace in and didn't know that there would be a catchup post

[Desperado]

"Catchups" are just a part of his style. He is never consistently active, so a lot of his activity consists of him going over 5+ pages of content.

[havingfitz]

Multi quoting from phone is a pain in the arse so:
 
Desp #431 - What is so "hilarious" about my post? (btw...you're scum)
Desp #432 - What am I taking out of context? (nothing)
Desp #433 - I'm not scum.  You are scum.  Does that affirmation thing usually work for you aside from when it hasn't towards me?
Desp #435 - Your point? 
 
How can you say my catch up in this game was "scum-Fitz"....based on ONE incomplete cacth up post that bares no resemblance to any of the catch up's I did in the game you "based your initial read on?"  And speaking of out on context...you use a game where I didn't even replace in to.  Rather I was in it from the start so my catchups are going to obviously be different (i.e. from a more informed pov) than a game where I come in 10-15-20+ pages. 
 
So your "catch up is scum-Fitz" assessment is like all of your other suspicions.  Crap.

[Desperado]

I'm not voting anyone else today, or for the rest of the game, until havingfitz is dead.

[havingfitz]

I'm not voting anyone else today, or for the rest of the game, until havingfitz is dead.

Are you 3 years old?

How about you answer my points/questions and try to actually concoct a case?

[Desperado]

Two reasons:

1. I already tried that once and wasn't successful
2. I don't think I'm going to need to to get you lynched this time anyway so QED

[Majiffy]

GIF's latest scumreads were {Desp, Pie, Gaiden, Who}. NS was definitely not on there (GIF had been reading him as town since very early in the game)

But he wasn't actively working with him. Hence the clauses added in.

Majiffy...when replacing into a D2 game 15 pages long...original thoughts (in my case at least) might not surface until after acknowledging what has been said and done prior to the aforementioned replace in. 

And considering you're such a big advocate of people just sheeping you, you asking for original thought is funny. 

It's fifteen fucking pages. I'm not asking you to write a goddamn thesis. And bolded, go fuck yourself. Don't dismiss my requests for players to play pro-town.

[hiplop]

This is going to sound pretrty bad but I blatantly forgot to post in this thread. I was active on site too :\

alright, Brian skies is rubbing me off pretty oddly. He definitely seems to be okay with this nonsense of a town atm.

In regards to the fitz/desp situation, I think I'm more inclined to believe desperado. I took a look at the meta that Bork posted, and definitely makes fitz look bad. He basically just said what is happening in the game, which is something a LOT of scum do when catching up ( me included)

Majiffy is almost certainly town. Who is scummy for the same reason I am, I understand. If I was someone else reading this game, I'd agree that there's scum between me and him. Obviously, I know I'm town so he would be my other scum read

The rest of you guys are honestly super-null. This has been one of the weirdest games i've ever been involved with.

I will be more active moving forward, but for now

VOTE: fitz

[hiplop]

btw I think desp[erado is town, but not necessarily strong town. I think he managed to read fitz effectively, but his stubborn play is definitely not protown.

The second example of scum IMO is VERY close in style and rationale as this game.

HMMM, actually. I think bork is town too. Not as sure as majiffy, but a lot of her reasonings are pretty strong, and don't seem to have any independant siding. Seems actually curious, which is good for sure

[SXTLHGaiden]

blah, i've kicked my 2048 habit and will start to be around more.

[Kalimar]

@Brian

: The dispersion heuristic may have another more 'in-vogue' term, but the basic idea is that scum tend to divide and conquer rather than block together as one cohesive unit that moves in lockstep with one another. This can manifest in voting patterns, displayed thought processes, read acquisitions and pushes. I think it tends to apply better to more distinct, idiosyncratic or unusual points of view.

It's a rule of thumb, and so has general applicability but can be outmanoeuvred. For example, if I knew a scum team had daytalk, I'd be a little warier applying it, although that's contingent on them being able to use it.

The hiplop activity marker was more of an observation than a tell. I often get a little concerned when I see people post significantly elsewhere in case they're strategically avoiding the game. I generally feel scum do that more than town... but I've got to admit, this game is pretty easy to want to avoid.

[Kalimar]

I, too, was a little underwhelmed by fitz's padded out catchup posts.

Hiplop looks a little better for actually checking the meta bork posted. He's right; the Aircraft Madness catchup wall is more padded with filler and superficiality like the ones this game as compared with the ones in the towngames listed. Admittedly, not a vast sample size, but an interesting observation nonetheless. One that has downgraded my read on fitz too.

Fitz, I don't really want to vote Desperado today. Who else interests you and why?

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.2

SXTLHGaiden [1] - notscience
Who [1] - Kalimar
havingfitz [3] - Desperado, Brian Skies, hiplop
Brian Skies [1] - borkjerfkin
Desperado [1] - havingfitz

Not Voting [4]

- SXTLHGaiden pieguyn Majiffy Who

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch

.

Deadline is March 30, 2014, at 11:00 AM PST.
Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2014-03-30 13:00:00)

[Majiffy]

Did I say anything about doing ISOs? Because I'm really unmotivated. Like

really

.

[havingfitz]

And bolded, go fuck yourself.

I say you're funny and I get this? STFU internet dickhead

Hiplop...I'm not scum. Get your vote off me and start making an effort.

Kalimer.....probably notscience. I'll elaborate tomorrow.

[Majiffy]

VOTE: Fitz

#careface