MS Fantasy Camp 2: Reaper's Tale! (Finished!)

[Nobody Special]

I believe that Venmar is scummier than LLD.

Vote: Venmar

L-2.

[chamber]

That's l-3?

[Lost Butterfly]

Day 3, VC 4

Lady Lambdadelta - (5)

Zdenek, xRECONERx, Shadoweh, chamber, Untrod Tripod

Venmar - (4)

Cerulean,

Nero Cain

, Plum, Nobody Special

Untrod Tripod - (1)

Venmar

Not voting - (3):

Lady Lambdadelta, Tim Howard, Flipping Awesome

With

13

alive it takes

7

to lynch.
Deadline for Day 1:

27th of May at 9:00pm

Irish Time - countdown: (expired on 2014-05-27 16:00:00)

No one is V/la.[/area]

Venmar will be lynched with 6 votes this day phase.

[Shadoweh]

This game is dead as fuck. I posted 48 hours ago and there have been 17 posts made since then from 11 different users since then. (3-4 of which were just prod dodges or promises for content in the future).

I'm going to choose to believe it's because the scumteam is so demotivated that none of them want to posst and incur our wrath, so if we just lynch everyone not poting we win! (\U^_^U/)

[Shadoweh]

*posting. Yeeeeees.

[xRECKONERx]

I believe that Venmar is scummier than LLD.

Vote: Venmar

L-2.

why

[Venmar]

Because Science, obviously...

[Venmar]

Going to read up on kanye and his connection to LLD to see what this wagon on her is all about.

[Nero Cain]

That's l-3?

Chamber doesn't seem the dumb type, is this fake?

Going to read up on kanye and his connection to LLD to see what this wagon on her is all about.

[Cerulean]

PROD

DODGE

still not thinking or rereading before tomorrow!

[chamber]

Chamber doesn't seem the dumb type, is this fake?

I wish I could claim that it was me getting back at him for how day 1 ended, but it was actually just me being careless, I forgot about his modifier.

[Lost Butterfly]

Prodding Untrod Tripod

[Untrod Tripod]

Um... hi?

can't help but notice the radio silence from LLD....

[Lady Lambdadelta]

radio silence is not the word I'd be using given I'm not the one who has been prodded today.

I'm working on a post outline of where my head is at right now, it's just that my heads not a great place to be~.

[Untrod Tripod]

yeah except I've actually provided content today and I'm getting prodded because no one (you included) has done jack shit and I have nothing really to comment on

nice beetlejuicing btw

[Untrod Tripod]

and I'm sorry if you're having personal issues. I'm not really trying to poke at you for that, I just wanted some game content from you

[Lost Butterfly]

Prodding Tim Howard

[Tim Howard]

God dammit I was 3 hours behind stupid getting shit done

Anywho, still not a fan of the Venmar wagon. I like the LLD wagon after re-reading her ISO (hasn't really taken hard stances since D1 / I feel that town-LLD would be pushing to accomplish shit in the midst of a lackadaisical town), but I'm not interested in putting her at L-1 as of yet. I want to see what her actual supposed upcoming content has to say.

Trying to re-feel out my Plum and UT reads as well. They've flipflopped a couple of times over the course of the game and I want to try to get a better handle on them.

[Flipping Awesome]

I'm in the process of re-reading the thread to look at interactions between Kanye and the other players in the game and I'll post my thoughts in a few hours. . I'm a little unsure now since I don't have a baseline on how Kanye treats his buddies yet. If anyone has any experience with Kanye as scum regarding how he treats his buddies (i.e. does he bus, distance, townread, question townreads on them, etc), that'll be great. I'll look into some of Kanye's scumgames too.

~ F-16

[Cerulean]

I know I said I'd start rereading through some things today but ALCOHOL IS EVIL and my head still feels woozy, so tomorrow or Monday.

Also, I think I'm flying solo for the rest of this day phase as empire will be v/la this week.

[xRECKONERx]

how about "dont rely on meta for everything and just read him"?

[Shadoweh]

To be fair, have you tried actually reading kayne's posts?
kayne is Good At Scum (tm) so I don't think blanket meta would work v well anyways. I'm p sure he's done 'all of the above' as scum.
I'm torn on whether he was bussing Tim or not tbh but I don't think he was?

[Flipping Awesome]

Going over Kanye's interactions with other slots to see who makes sense as Kanye-buddies. The "possible" ones are the POE pool that I need to refine to see which one actually make any sense. I actually think the first and maybe second are likely but Penguin doesn't so we are going to focus on analyzing more there.

Kanye's interactions with other slots:

1) Kanye/LLD

-

Possible/likely

• I think an LLD/Kanye scumteam is not only possible but also likely, considering she had a lot of early suspicion of Kanye which she doesn't push hard on and it feels like scum-scum distancing. For example in Post 207 she said that if she could put up two people in the no lynch arena, she'd pick Kanye and Tim Howard. She follows up on this suspicion in Post 1456 saying that she needs someone to tell her that Kanye isn't scum. But I don't think she at any point actually voted Kanye or made any sort of push. She spent Post 1472 trying to work with others to see if they noticed UT's interactions seeming odd but I saw no attempt to discuss Kanye which I think would have been a priority if she genuinely suspected him. We know that as of Post 1530, she's caught up enough to see that both her scumspects had votes on them but then in Post 1598, she pushed a Nero Cain wagon as opposed to Kanye's, who had two votes on him at that time.
  
• A few other things I disliked about her was the vote on Chamber in Post 1389 since Chamber felt obvtown by that point and I didn't like the way she came off in her interaction with Zdenek about Shadoweh. I also find it odd on a re-read that that she wanted Zdenek dead before LYLO since I am reading Zdenek as pretty strongly town and I think it is apparent and I think town would want to read him as opposed to PL him before LYLO.
  
• From Kanye's end, he cautions against townreading LLD in Post 242 which he strongly defends to Nacho in Post 842. The confidence with which he does it makes me consider the possibility that he could be distancing. I also dislike that their overall interactions have been to push weak suspicion/paranoia at each other while making no hard pushes that could get the other lynched.

2) Kanye/Venmar

-

Possible

• The first interaction between Kanye and Venmar on Day 1 had Venmar scumreading Kanye for a poor reason of Kanye reading the thread after saying he wouldn't. I think it could be possible scum distancing, but on the other hand I am also not sure why Venmar would want to bring attention to a buddy with shitty reasoning. However, their later interaction where Venmar then says that the lack of follow up on his Kanye scumread should show everyone that he doesn't believe in it very much may be indicative of an early bus that Venmar doesn't want to follow through on which makes me lean scum overall.
  
• From Kanye's side, his first interaction with Venmar comes early day 2 in response to Venmar voting him. The OMGUSsy nature of it makes me wonder if Venmar is town because it seemed reactive and the "how is this indicative of a scum win condition" had a really formal tone to it that also feels like he wants to make Venmar look bad which again makes me doubt my scumread on Venmar. Kanye not liking the notion that Nero Cain/Venmar aren't scum together is odd and that makes me think one of them could be scum and he wants to leave a mislynch option open even if they flip. And if one of them is scum, my bet is on Venmar over Nero Cain. So, overall not sure and I'll refine this read soon but I independently found Venmar scummy.

3) Kanye/Reck

-

Possible

• Reck votes Kanye again in Post 1583 after he had previously switched to Tim Howard. I think his appeal to Reck in Post 1592 could possibly be scum to scum. I don't like Reck's response of "
  Kanye, who else should I vote and why?
  " and later changing to Nero Cain in Post 1603 and never putting his vote back and asking for a hammer on Nero Cain in Post 1930.
  
• One thing that concerns me is that Reck says that he thought he was picking up a cop breadcrumb with a guilty on Kanye. It is not implausible that he believed that (but it is non-alignment indicative considering scum may do the same if they thought someone had a guilty on a buddy), but he actually voted Kanye twice on D2, once when the day opened and Zdenek voted Kanye, in Post 1248, then later switched to UT and Tim, and back to Kanye again and then laid off of Kanye to stick with Nero Cain until deadline so there are definitely non-cop-guilty reasons for voting Kanye or he fluctuated between thinking there was a cop guilty and that there wasn't which I can't really follow. I wouldn't rule out a Reck-Kanye team, but Penguin feels more strongly about it than me.

4) Kanye/Shadoweh

-

Possible

• I get the impression that Kanye is trying to put Shadoweh in the null scum category when others townread her. Not sure what this says about her alignment yet because I want to check Kanye's meta to see how he treats his buddies. At first glance, it seems like a distancing/towncred type of move. For example, he responds to Ffery's question by saying that he is not getting the same townvibes he got from her that he did in ASOIAF. He tells Nacho in Post 843 that he is not convinced of his townread on Shadoweh, and then calls Shadoweh's blue thing null in Post 866 in response to Empire townreading her. Overall, he doesn't seem comfortable with Shadoweh being read as town and his motivation will be more apparent after a meta-dive on both him and Shadoweh. Kanye might have been looking for an out to not push Shadoweh on D2 as he says in Post 1238 that he was going to come swinging against Shadoweh but a Sixty kill apparently doesn't jive well with Shadoweh being scum.
  
• From Shadoweh's end, she asks in Post 1296 whether anyone voting Kanye actually want to explain why they are voting him or we were just going to stare at the votes which she re-iterates in Post 1329. It felt like a discredit based on the tone although I doubt scum-Shadoweh would blatantly talk about a wagon on a buddy like that. However, she simultaneously questions Kanye in Post 1318 asking why he didn't stay on the Tim Howard wagon as a follow up to Zdenek's questioning. She also hedges on it saying that while Zdenek is hitting a bunch of good points, there isn't much to talk about it. I want to look back at the "
  it scares me when people are sheeping me
  " in Post 1373 to the "just bloody sheep me" in Post 1388 especially considering she was leading a Kanye counterwagon. While I have an independent townread on Shadoweh, I want to look more closely to make sure.
  
• Shadoweh, a question for you: You said that Zdenek was making a bunch of good points in Post 1329 about Kanye and you even question Kanye yourself in Post 1318. Why were you so opposed to his wagon?

5) Kanye/Tim Howard

-

Possible

• Kanye places the fifth vote on the Tim wagon with six days to go before deadline and a naked vote on Tim in Post 1238 during D2. I'm not yet sure whether they are mislynch votes or bus votes. Kanye's tendency to emphasize that his vote was present on Tim may point to buddy-buddy interaction and a move at towncred. He does this a few times for example in Post 1307 in response to Zdenek asking about the Sangres vote. Kanye again calls Tim Howard scum in Post 1490 and tries to link other people to Tim Howard claiming in Post 1679 and Post 1768 that the people who unvoted Tim upon a claim are suspect. I am really not yet sure how to interpret those without meta. Comments will help.
  
• From's Tim Howard's end, they say that Kanye is on the scummier side on null and follow through on it much later with a vote on Kanye. They call out Kanye on being "useless" in Post 1207 and Post 1259 and I don't like the dismissive tone there. They say that the Kanye wagon died because he lurked it away in Post 1509 and that they could still vote him. They follow through in Post 1548 by re-iterating that they would vote him for lurking D1 and D2 and compare it with the lurking not being like the Kanye that they had seen elsewhere. Follows up in Post 1675 saying that the scumread is due to Kanye not being his ASOIAF self. He follows up in Post 1927 by a please lynch Kanye over Nero. So, overall, I felt like his suspicion flowed fairly naturally and gradually. I think that the CBD and Nacho townreads add to them being likely town. I felt that the way they claimed looked town. I'd like thoughts from others on whether Nexus/Quadz are bussers. Will look into their meta later.

6) Kanye/Plum

-

Unlikely

• Plum's vote on Kanye in Post 1805 was the fourth vote on the wagon and follows up her saying in Post 1641 that she would vote Kanye over Nero Cain. Her vote also provided the wagon the much needed boost to see it through to completion. Plum also doesn't seem to be the bussing type as I got from a (limited) meta-read of her in We're on a boat and I don't think that she'd want to bus a competent buddy like Kanye and considering support for a Kanye wagon, she would know his lynch was possible and I am seeing the vote as a pretty massive towntell.
  
• A concern I had regarding Kanye-Plum was that Plum never really said anything at all about Kanye in her ISO and she suddenly moves onto saying that she'd lynch Kanye over Nero Cain in Post 1641 and giving him the "side-eye" over the way he's been approaching Tim Howard in Post 1805. I also thought that her D1 play was scummy but she picks it up massively in D2 with the quiz-time UT in 1262 and her case on UT in Post 1275 felt tonally aggressive in a very townish way and fits what is expected of her town meta. My only remaining paranoia is that she pushed cases after being called out on not pushing cases D1 but I'm going to table that. Empire/Tammy, do you have any thoughts about the way she approached the UT case, did you find it genuine and what do you make of the way Plum voted Kanye without prior mentions of him?
  
• Plum, I have a few questions for you: can you explain what of Kanye's treatment of Tim Howard made you suspicious of him and why? Also, what of UT made you suspicious enough to go back and push a case on him? To clarify, I know
  why
  you suspected him as you outlined in your case, I more want to know what made you go back, pick UT in particular, and decide to quiz him and build a case on him and whether you decided to re-read the game as a whole.

7) Kanye/Nobody Special

-

Unlikely

• NS has Kanye as a scumread in Post 1506 where he also says that Nero is almost certainly town. He also has a scumread on Venmar in Post 1939. During deadline, he shows up in Post 1939, he leans towards voting Kanye even though he could just have hammered Nero Cain citing deadline and/or change in reads. Considering Tammy telegraphed a Kanye vote, NS's vote pretty much sealed the lynch here.
  
• I wasn't really sure what to make of his enthusiasm close to the deadline lynch since he was never really involved in the game and it felt odd when he showed up and started championing a lynch on Kanye with him being the L-1 vote. But Kanye's last posts were bad and it strengthened my scumread as well. I guess it is possible he was thinking about his old reads with Kanye as scum and Nero Cain as town and was acting on them energetically when he saw a strong townread and a strong scumread being wagoned close to deadline. It certainly is internally consistent with his previous reads and makes sense so I think it is fairly unlikely that he is in a team with Kanye.

8) Kanye/UT

-

Extremely Unlikely

• UT barely has any interaction with Kanye and he says that he nearly forgot about him in Post 1319 which I'm actually taking as a towntell because I feel it is so unlikely for scum to admit that they forgot that one of their scumbuddies were in the game as it would look bad for them at a surface level and I feel that UT if scum would have found something about Kanye to take a stance on. His overall play also feels a lot more like he was in Reckoning where his posts were carefree and unforced than as my scum partner in Wicked where he made a lot of aggressive pushes especially while bussing my slot.
  
• From Kanye's side of the interaction, the confidence with which he calls the stagnating UT wagon "incredibly fucking stupid" in Post 1494 feels like a plot at towncred as opposed to protecting a buddy considering a) The confidence with which he says it feels like scum knowing that UT is town and correctly calling him town, and b) Tammy had made an earlier wall in Post 1410 calling the UT wagon exactly that ("fucking stupid) and he likely sensed that the opportunity to mislynch UT became extremely slim at that point.
  
• I did have a small niggle on UT because he was willing to vote both Venmar and Nero Cain at deadline but not Kanye. If he thought that Venmar was so scummy, why vote the person that Venmar was pushing rather than the counterwagon. However, It can plausibly be explained by him suspecting Nero Cain earlier so he was settling for his second suspect although I don't see what he saw with Nero Cain being scummy in the first place. Overall, I'd be super-shocked if he is scum here.

9) Kanye/Nero Cain

-

Extremely Unlikely

• Penguin and I both agree that it is very unlikely that we had two scum counterwagons and the inertia around the wagons with not a lot of people moving around also furthers this idea and I think the majority of the scum were on the Nero Cain wagon. There were a few markers I looked for when scum get crosswagoned such as in Wicked Mafia which is a lot of movement around the wagons and I didn't get those same vibes here where it came down to the last voter having the hammer. Nero Cain is independently a townread of mine anyways and being a counterwagon to scum just adds to that.
  
• While I wasn't originally sure what to make of Post 1227 where he had Venmar as a top suspect and Kanye as a secondary one, his flow of suspicion onto Kanye felt gradual and his annoyance at Kanye in Post 1502 where he thought that Kanye was setting up chain lynches felt genuine. I feel that quite a lot of his reads in Post 1622 made sense even if he had Kanye somewhere around the null zone. I also thought that his paranoia of our slot felt town and his overall play makes a lot of sense from a town POV.

10) Kanye/chamber

-

Extremely Unlikely

• Chamber doesn't have a lot of interaction with Kanye D1 and he doesn't focus much on Kanye except to say in Post 1576 that Kanye vs Nero would be acceptable. This matches up with his later play and reluctance to vote Kanye because Nero also had a wagon on him and for the most part was a bigger suspect of Chamber's.
  
• Chamber's interaction around the hammer starting around Post 1905 and continuing until the end of D2 where he tried to get Nero Cain lynched over Kanye felt extremely uninformed and he never showed any sort of hesitation in pushing the Kanye counterwagon. His reaction after the hammer also felt natural and while it possible he faked it, I don't buy that the entire build-up, the push for Tammy to hammer Nero Cain, the hope that she changed her mind, and then the eventual disappointment was faked as convincingly as it happened. I already thought Chamber was obvtown for several reasons and his interactions with Kanye just solidify my townread here.

11) Kanye/Zdenek

-

Extremely Unlikely

• Zdenek's interactions with Kanye come off as incredibly town as he genuinely pursues his suspicion of Kanye often with a lot of follow up especially in Post 850 and Post 1002 and Kanye's tone towards Zdenek feels like appeasing a townie as opposed to interacting with a buddy particularly in Post 157.
  
• Their Day 2 interactions where Zdenek along with Plessiez were the major pushers of the Kanye wagon points strongly against Zdenek being scum. I like his reasoning to vote Kanye in Post 1298, their continued interaction for the next ten or so posts and his push on Kanye for sidelining his vote and trying to prove it in Post 1313 felt quite obviously town and not from scum partners. But most of all, his persistent and continued push to drive the Kanye wagon and lead the lynch makes me absolutely certain that Zdenek is town.

12) Kanye/Cerulean

-

Extremely Unlikely

• Cerulean are pretty blatantly town based off of their interactions with Kanye if they weren't already obvtown. Tammy was the first player to pick up that something was off about Kanye as evidenced by her *twitch* in Post 242 which she later follows up on Post 513 and Post 596 elaborating on Kanye's early coasting bugging her as well as picking up on the fact that Kanye gets good early reads and the progression of her suspicion felt incredibly genuine.
  
• Empire's questions to Kanye in Post 860 feels like a natural follow-up of what he and Tammy had found off about Kanye's play and I feel like the responses were alignment indicative. Particularly his questioning about whether Kanye had developed reads on Sixty based off when he had wagoned them at the beginning of the game and deducing that he was likely scum based off of his responses.
  
• Tammy's Post 1566 elaborating on the nature of Kanye's early game coasting and deviations from his town meta and the subsequent call out to Kanye in Post 1695 and Post 1697 felt like a natural follow up of her suspicion. The desire to sort Kanye through interaction matches up exactly with the way I know Tammy sorts her reads out as town especially people that she hates to mislynch and Cerulean's entire interaction with Kanye feels blatantly obviously town. That's not even mentioning that Tammy could easily have voted Nero Cain over Kanye citing her reluctance to mislynch him and I feel that her not taking that route felt super town as well.

That turned out to be a lot longer than I expected and if you actually read through this massive info-dump that's not even fully finished (I need to refine the "possible" group into what's actually "likely" through meta-analysis so will probably end up with a smaller pool), then you have all the love and respect I can give you and you are a really awesome person.

~ F-16

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Do you think either chamber or Cerulean are scum? Or NS? I appreciate the sentiment and I wish I could believe it were true, but there aren't alot of options for it here, so I don't know who those needlers would be.

I'm reading chamber as town. I thought Cerulean's early posts were incredibly scummy, but they've been towntelling lately. I could absolutely support a Cerulean wagon though.

NS I could vote just for policy tbqh.

Here is a UT post, for reference. I want to draw your attention to it just so I can show you the difference between UT being asked for his reads on these 2 players as opposed to Kanye.

The biggest difference here, and throughout UT's ISO is that UT has been using very decisive language all game. I mean, here let me grab you some more of UT's language from this game.

Post numbers:

1076, he talks here about his belief Reck is town, and the language he uses is consistent with the above. Confident, forward, unwavering. UT seems definitely certain of this.

1080 again, read this. Confidence oozing from him.

1101, again.

So how can you then say, this comment about Kanye

UT, what do you think of Kanye? Your iso shows zero mentions of his name.

shrug

I have kind of a hard time just reading his posts tbqh, so I didn't really remember he was in this game

Inspires confidence in you?

I mean, let's examine the tonality of this post, as well as the intent behind it. Here, UT is showing uncertainty, and aloofness from this read. He's extremely non-committal, which I get if he was talking about someone lurking, but there's a couple of factors in play here

1) The day 1 Katsuki lynch, and his comments about being willing to policy lynch NS. Neither of these were particularly strong wagons for him, given his day one votes include people he expressed so much more certainty over like Tim Howard, Cerulean and Plum. Given this, he's shown he has no issue talking negatively about people he can't have much of a read on.

2) Kanye is a scary fucking scum player- If you were afraid of Kanye as scum and couldnt read him, I'd expect hesitation and fear, not aloofness.

3) Intent: What does this post accomplish, in any sense of the word? Clearly, he's asked for his opinion of Kanye, and not just why he hasn't mentioned him before. Why then does he specifically hold himself to just that shrug and passing of the buck. Yes Kanye was mysteriously absent (he's not the only one, I suck, I'm sorry), but that doesn't mean he didn;t have things worth looking at.

Why is that mysteriously absent here? Because it's not the intent of UT to answer the question, instead it's the intent of UT to deflect it.


I cannot understand, Flipping, why you see that post of all to be town, especially with the reasoning you gave. "Too obvious to be scum" is not a thing, and you know it.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

By the by, not that this matters in the slightest, since lol!meta, but Kanye and I are extremely paranoid of eachother now a days. We like playign with eachother but reading eachother is super hard.

Why did I say I needed someone to hold my hand about Kanye? Because I thought the 2 day scum read I had on him was severe paranoia on my part, and I wanted someone else to help me clear my head.

Anyway, lemme get this ready, cause we're gonna talk about UT -> Reck interactions here in a moment.