Mini 1585: Muskoka Murder Mystery - Game Over

[Cheery Dog]

@Cheery have you looked at any other players interactions with the Chevre wagon at the end of D1 or just me?

I went looking at you to see if I could se if there was a reason you wanted us distracted by early game wagons. I think I found it.

[Guyett]

my slots of interest:

Aneninen - this one's been a secret scumread of mine that's been simmering most of the game. his signal:noise ratio is remarkably low and i think the noise generation is more likely to come from newbscum. he's done a good job of keeping in with the popular opinions and never seems to stick his neck out. the most recent reads list here also looks like a scum's reads list with opinions missing on some major slots (me, bert, chaos, boon).

broodking - he's been a question mark most of this game and his ISO doesn't

really

tell me anything about where he's going (it's mostly cobbled together responses to details of other people's posts).

evilpacman18 - i add this slot back into the scum mix because he's active on the site, but avoiding this thread.

konowa - a mixed bag, but there's flashes of scum (the bleh push on chaoslord for one)

Chevre - his last couple posts are the towniest he's been all game. he may flip scum but i doubt it.

(my deal with fakegod's still on though)

everyone else are varying degrees of townreads (boon is a wildcard)

Thoughts on this then Cheery?

[Guyett]

Regarding the early game wagon comment have a read of this:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5943579

Analyzing early game wagons here directly caught scum

[BroodKingEXE]

Konowa and anti r my gut scumreads

Like I know I will be under fire soon cos unreadable but I meant it when I said I'm too flat-lined to so anything about it atm

Normally feeling pressure gets me to react, but times r achanging y'all

Sorry, I meant all players. Should've been more clear.

[Cheery Dog]

Thoughts on this then Cheery?

I'll add this from earlier to it.

if chevre flips town, i'll be the first to self-vote tomorrow.

Could be a also be a worthwhile vote.

I don't really see reasoning on his Cherve votes either. Fairly sure scum have bussed there somewhere.

[chaoslord54]

@Konowa, I'm gonna ask this question again. Why did you claim miller D1?

This is one of my first games back in over a year that I will complete, I signed up for two? games around January/February but flaked, and didn't have the confidence in myself to be town enough to not be investigated by a potential cop.

Cheery is right in that optimal play for miller is to be obvtown as to not be investigated by any potential cops, I just didn't have the confidence.

Cheery, if Guy is scum who is scum with him?

Oh come on does nobody else feel a little irked by this?

[BroodKingEXE]

@Guy, why did you have a townread on Anti D1 through D2? Specifics would be helpful.

[Cheery Dog]

Regarding the early game wagon comment have a read of this:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5943579

Analyzing early game wagons here directly caught scum

You may get lucky sometimes, but it does show you have done it before this game as town. If you have it working for you sure, but colouring names and then assuming there's a scum on a wagon doesn't interest me.

[Guyett]

@Guy, why did you have a townread on Anti D1 through D2? Specifics would be helpful.

Because I thought I could read him.... I didn't think he'd be the type to push the Chevre wagon and I thought his unvote right at the end was not as scummy as others were making it out to be.
However I started today with a clean read list and did some VC analysis and started thinking about setup spec due to the Don flip. Anti's play as well as his actions with votes are making me paranoid. I want him to cop on if he's town as he can and has won games for town late on and if it takes a good few votes to try sort him out then that's fine with me. I've been burnt by players who I had a solid town read on and they flipped scum before.

[Guyett]

Regarding the early game wagon comment have a read of this:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5943579

Analyzing early game wagons here directly caught scum

You may get lucky sometimes, but it does show you have done it before this game as town. If you have it working for you sure, but colouring names and then assuming there's a scum on a wagon doesn't interest me.

Tbh mate I don't really care if you like it or not, we all have our own play styles. I just happen to be very proud of that game and yeah sometimes that VCA works and sometimes it doesn't but at the end of the day I used it to catch out 2 of the 3 scums and the ones who were calling it shit (Titus and GM) flipped scum so *shrug*

[Guyett]

@Konowa, I'm gonna ask this question again. Why did you claim miller D1?

This is one of my first games back in over a year that I will complete, I signed up for two? games around January/February but flaked, and didn't have the confidence in myself to be town enough to not be investigated by a potential cop.

Cheery is right in that optimal play for miller is to be obvtown as to not be investigated by any potential cops, I just didn't have the confidence.

Cheery, if Guy is scum who is scum with him?

Oh come on does nobody else feel a little irked by this?

looks to me like's he's figuring out if he'l get too much heat on him or not for throwing a vote on me as a counter wagon on him

[Konowa]

That's exactly it.

I was asking because he's been -talking- about you for awhile in clips. Naturally if he believes that if you are scum with Chevre someone has to make sense as scum with you as well. I'm really not big on his response in #1070 but I don't know if that's just playstyle or what. I had sold myself on Boonskiies being really overinvolved, over their head, noob town so I have been glazing over Cheery's posts and not really paying attention to too much he's been saying.

[Konowa]

Other suspects at the moment include Aneninen & startfromtheheart.

Why?

[Aneninen]

Oh My Gods. Sometimes I'm so "slow-minded".
We should not have asked why Chaoslord tracked Reinoe and me. We should have asked why he didn't track Konowa.

[evilpacman18]

Konowa's gone into full defense mode

[evilpacman18]

Oh My Gods. Sometimes I'm so "slow-minded".
We should not have asked why Chaoslord tracked Reinoe and me. We should have asked why he didn't track Konowa.

Because if CL is telling the truth then he can be pretty sure Konowa is scum without having to use a track on him

[chaoslord54]

Oh My Gods. Sometimes I'm so "slow-minded".
We should not have asked why Chaoslord tracked Reinoe and me. We should have asked why he didn't track Konowa.

Because if CL is telling the truth then he can be pretty sure Konowa is scum without having to use a track on him

Exactly, I could not have said it better myself.

I figured I would try and track others who have a chance of being scum because in my mind it's pretty clear Konowa is scum.

[Aneninen]

I was thinking.
Since we have no better option, I'm going to take the lead of the town.
I know that you can't be sure about my alignment but at least, due to the tracking you can consider me almost 100% town (regardless of Chaos's alignment). In addition: it's clear that I can't have any night-action PR (by the way, other kinds of PRs would be highly unlikely too, see later) which means I'm expendable as well.

The logic about why my VT claim was true:

Spoiler:

There are the following possibilities:

(1) Chaos is Town Tracker and I'm VT. Nothing extra-ordinary in this case. I still might have a PR with no night target ability or it might be possible that I didn't use my ability at Night2. In both cases I would stfu and wouldn't tell you that I'm expendable. (Unless I'd be an X-shot Bulletproof but we all wish I were one.)

(2) Chaos is Town Tracker and I'm scum. The original setup is most probably 10:3. (There were no multiple Nightkills and 9:4 would be absurd.) One Mafia Goon is down. Amongst the other two there must be a Rolecop: Don't Nightkill is only logical if they

knew

who he was or at least they knew that he was targetting someone before. As Bert wrote it in 1016, the standard procedure is that one of the scums performs the Kill while the other one performs the Night Action. In both cases if I were scum, I would have done something and Chaos would have known about it. His "no action" read would have been possible only if my scum partner had performed both the Kill and the Targetting. This could be possible if my partner were the Rolecop, but in this case I'd stfu instead of trying rolefishing the scum group. In short, (2) is not entirely impossible but very unlikely.

(3) Chaos is Scum and I'm VT. That's an interesting version. In this case he may be either the Mafia Tracker or the Mafia Rolecop. The sequence of the events could have been the following. Night 1: Chaos tracks Don. Day 2: he claims Tracker and says he tracked Reinoe (there's no way to confirm or contradict this). Night 2: Mafia kills Don (either they knew he was a Jailkeeper or they only knew that he had a PR). Day 3: he makes up his tracking about me. That may be risky

but

, telling that he tracked Don would have been way too suspicious. So, he takes the risk and makes up a name. He's lucky because without having a PR with Night-targetting I can't counterclaim him. I think (1) is more likely than (3) but, the fact that he haven't tracked Konowa yet makes (3) more probable. (If I were a Tracker I'd have been tracked Konowa during Night1. It's still possible that Knowa doesn't perform an action – though, if the scums indeed have a Rolecop, that's not too likely, see (2)! – but, as for Millers, a Tracker can get more info about them than a Cop, since the Copread is useless.)

(3/2) Both Konowa and Chaos are scum. A weird idea but it's not impossible. That would explain why didn't he track Konowa and if they bus each other effectively, none of us will consider the un-lynched one out of them after the other one will have flipped scum... or would we? ^_^ By the way, if (3/2) is true my alignment is town, yet again. (There can't be three living scums.)

(4) Both Chaos and I are scum. In this case faking tracking me would be nonsense. We'd know that Konowa's claim was real and he could have lied that he checked Konowa's claim with the tracking (regardless of his real target, Chaos' possible roles if he's scum are detailed under (3)). This version is impossible in practitce, I think, and not only because I would have advised Chaos to track Konowa (or f-ck, anyone else but me). If we were both scum, there could be an investigate role on the town side as well. If a "real" town Tracker targetted me later and got a positive result, it would be pretty much game over for us. (See (2) for details, especially the "one scum Kills, the other one performs the action part. If a Cop gets a "scum" read on me after targetting, the situation is rougly the same, though there would be a slim chance that Chaos got away with the story.)

Conclusion: I'll examine everything thorougly as soon as I can. Feel free to point out if my logic in the forthcoming posts are wrong but, until we have a 100,00% confirmed town player, you should trust me. Even if I'm not the smartest player on the forum, I'll try to do my best.

[Cheery Dog]

What do we need a town leader for? If one exists they aren't elected.

Other suspects at the moment include Aneninen & startfromtheheart.

Why?

I'll get to that if/when I'm actually wanting either of them lynched.
I guess it doesn't hurt for why they're currently suspected though
Bert's random list at the start of the game seems like too much effort for town to bother taking. (and I believe Bert's usually a somewhat lazy town)
Aneninen's response to the tracking seems over the top, but there may just be newer town in there somewhere.

Oh My Gods. Sometimes I'm so "slow-minded".
We should not have asked why Chaoslord tracked Reinoe and me. We should have asked why he didn't track Konowa.

Because if CL is telling the truth then he can be pretty sure Konowa is scum without having to use a track on him

Why does it not make sense for the current claimed and known power roles to possible all exist as town?

[BroodKingEXE]

What do we need a town leader for? If one exists they aren't elected.

Other suspects at the moment include Aneninen & startfromtheheart.

Why?

I'll get to that if/when I'm actually wanting either of them lynched.
I guess it doesn't hurt for why they're currently suspected though
Bert's random list at the start of the game seems like too much effort for town to bother taking. (and I believe Bert's usually a somewhat lazy town)
Aneninen's response to the tracking seems over the top, but there may just be newer town in there somewhere.

Oh My Gods. Sometimes I'm so "slow-minded".
We should not have asked why Chaoslord tracked Reinoe and me. We should have asked why he didn't track Konowa.

Because if CL is telling the truth then he can be pretty sure Konowa is scum without having to use a track on him

Why does it not make sense for the current claimed and known power roles to possible all exist as town?

I agree with EPM that that kind of a setup doesn't sound right. I haven't played a closed game on MS, so I don't really know if mods usually put red herrings in the roles. Tracker and miller doesn't make sense, because tracker+cop is OP imo. You don't have a miller without a cop otherwise it's a useless role.

[Aneninen]

So, my reads with marks.
1 – very town
2 – lean town
3 – null, unsorted, unable to read or inconclusive
4 – lean scum
5 – very scum

Spoiler:

CheeryDog

(previously Boonskiies)
Towntells: Boon was the first name on the Chevre wagon. Cheery was away from the Misaka wagon. In general, his posts are not essentially scummy.
Stumtells: 1007: he says that I'm rolefishing and doesn't answer my question about it later. (Indeed I was rolefishing BUT the scum side, not the town side!) General inactivity about scumhunting (though, this plus not voting in the end of Day2 might be an ignorance-read too).
Others: Boon's early posts may be newb-tells. He failed to catchup later, that might be a null.

Mark

: 2

BroodkingEXE

Towntells: Early meta-reading (even if it's not too informative). His scumhunting seems to be genuine.
Scumtells: Not too much. However, he's given away merely 2 votes (both on Day2) so far, which is strange.
Others: As far as I see, he keeps asking questions and doesn't gets answers. Why?

Mark

: 1

ChaosLord

Towntells: First of all, his Tracker claim, if it's real. Sure it may be fake (see my previous post, this post or other players' posts about it) but one thing bothers me considering it fake. Why did he claim on Day2 with tracking Reinoe? Wouldn't it have been easier to wait for Day3? Eg. he could have chosen from more dead players to give away uninformative tracks... He voted on Chevre on Day 1. Even if he didn't give an explanation for that (as far as I saw) it would have made no sense if he were Chevre's partner.
Scumtells: His case on Reinoe on Day1 was shyt. His claim happened in an inappropriate moment, I think. (There was no wagon against him and he provided no info by that.) His jump on the Misaka wagon was awkward. 980: that's not true. Antihero used to lead a wagon against me but later he abandoned it. There would have been a better track than me, I suppose. What if he tries to buddy me? (Though I can't see any reason for that choice.)

Post-edit

: Yes, that's it, BroodKing! I haven't wanted to talk about it but a Tracker+Cop+Miller setup would be imbalanced. Yet another thing which makes me think that Chaos's faking. (Why haven't I wanted to post about it? Call me a noob but I thought it would have been town-rolefishing.)
Others: The more I read his posts the more I think that he's scum. Still, what if we're wrong? We shouldn't lynch the Tracker in this case. How can I say, I wouldn't suggest lynching him today because the loss might be detrimental. Maybe tomorrow. Prove me if I'm wrong.

Mark

: 5

EvilPacMan

Towntells: Not many. Contentless posts.
Scumtells: 396 may be a soft defense on Chevre. 738 (reading Reinoe who had been dead by then and admitting that it even confirms his truth in 742) is very FoS. He was not on the Chevre wagon but was on the Misaka wagon. His recent turn against Konowa is another FoS. (He voted for him in 1047 and Chaos followed him in the next post. WTF?) 1089 about Konowa is bullshyt. His answer for my question in 1090 is the latest scumtell. Check out Cheery's answer later! There's a big difference between

why should he check a claimed role

(Cheery) and

why should he check him if he knows he's scum

(EPM)
Others: What do you think about a Chaos/EPM scumpair?

mark

: 5

Antihero

Towntells: The Chevre wagon. He was the one who jumped off it

but

, he had plenty of time and opportunities to leave that wagon earlier. I've already written about it. (And remember, I had also considered that a scumtell before I checked his vote pattern.)
Scumtells: Hammering Misaka. His sick case against me (plus, I still don't think that he was able to read my post and to respond it with a vote in one minute). His flip-flopping during Day2 (others were talking about that too).
Others: By ISO-ing him I've ignored his emotional posts. (I don't know whether it's a mistake.) As for him I'm at a loss. He's been pretty inactive Today, I wonder what his next posts will be.

Mark

: 3

Guyett

Towntells: Pushing and hammering Chevre (regardless of that fake-hammer, I consider it as a null). I still don't understand why he voted on me (PoE?) but his vote for Misaka seems legit (that vote from Misaka in 817 was awkward). 890: I like this (I've realized it just now, ISO-ing everyone.) In general, active scumhunting.
Scumtells: Not many. Maybe the fact that his Vote Analysis-es are long and either uninformative or I don't see the logic in them.

Mark

: 1

Startfromtheheart

Towntells: Very little content but at least, some scumhunting and pointing out things like about Don in 862. Or eg. 1065.
Stumtells: Not voting for Chevre and this post: 686 makes no sense. Re-quoting his own random reads makes no sense as well if he's town.
Others: He's aware of his inactivity and "content-lessness". This, in itself is a null.

Mark

: 3

Konowa

Towntells: Yes, an instant Miller claim is one of the possible gameplays. (Though, it can be faked of course.) His votes make sense in general. Mostly
Scumtells: However, sometimes his FoS-es are silly. (Eg. BroodKing).
Others: He claimed earlier Miller and Chaos claimed Tracker later. Chaos may also know that a Tracker+Miller+Cop setup could be broken (and a Miller without a Cop seems to be a bit "bastard" for me). So, there is a chance that the Miller claim is the fake one. Yet I think Chaos looks scummier. On the other hand, mislynching a Miller is not as bad as mislynching a Tracker. What do you all think?

Mark

: 3

VOTE: EvilPacMan – I'm ready to switch to ChaosLord later. Arguments are in the spoiler.

[Guyett]

I really doubt EPM is scum given his wagon was a counter wagon to Chevre D1

[Aneninen]

What do we need a town leader for? If one exists they aren't elected.

You're right, "leader" is not a good word. I used it only because it was used in assotiation with Don before.
The "one who tries to speed up things toward a scumlynch" would be a better expression.
Plus, that sentence was partly for myself as well. I tend to read things and make conclusions in my head – and to post shytty and/or only partially reasoned content about everything. I should not do it in a situation like this.

Everyone, feel free to prove me if my reads are wrong! (See my post above!)

[Aneninen]

I really doubt EPM is scum given his wagon was a counter wagon to Chevre D1

Chaos was away from both. Chevre was away from EPM. EPM was away from Chevre. I think these facts should be considered as well.

[Guyett]

Chaos was on the lynch wagon...

But you're saying scum team is {Chevre, EPM, CHaos} and none of them were on the 2 leading wagons and none of them decided to bus until the very last minute?