Mini 1621: Frog Mafia (KERO)

[orcinus_theoriginal]

just read feysal's post in my neighborhood and this kid is a genius

Here are his reads in his final post

VAD strong town
massive town for vote on waffle, dropped some secret town tell
flubber town, for waffle trying to deflect to him
garmr town
2birds1stone town
total wreck town because gendaberry wouldn't have bussed a partner that hard in first mafia game
greyice, primate scum

i like his reasoning on total wreck and flubber and two townreads are all i need

gnite

[Rumia x Cirno]

mod: are you using natural action resolution?

yes

[Rumia x Cirno]

votecount 3.4

Primate (2) - massive, Total Wreck

ProHawk (1) - Flubbernugget
Flubbernugget (1) - ProHawk

Not voting (4): Primate, VictorDeAngelo, Garmr, orcinus_theoriginal

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is December 7, 23:00 GMT-7 or in: (expired on 2014-12-07 23:00:00)

[VictorDeAngelo]

OK, orcinus has done enough to make happy to take him off the table again.

I'm down for a Flubber, Primate or ProHawk lynch at this stage, but I'm leaning most towards Primate at this point.

[Garmr]

VOTE: Primate

I don't think I'm getting my flubber lynch today

[massive]

Not crazy how quickly he accepted Garmr's "I'm confirmed town" statement but Jackel was already in my town pool due to interactions between him and GreyICE D2 (when GreyICE was completely confident in his ability to at least not get lynched). Could be just that I'm not crazy about Garmr's "I'm confirmed town" statement in general.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Garmr is conftown if mod uses NAS which he does

[orcinus_theoriginal]

*NAR

[orcinus_theoriginal]

garmr being conftown is very very important for you to grap right now massive

1. book isn't that bad hat she shot anybody but garmr
2. book is strongwilled meaning she couldn't have been roleblocked and her shot on garmr MUST hav gone through
3. even if book was shot at using the vig n1, if garmr was scum garmr would've died according to NAR which states all night kills resolve simultaneously
4. basically if garmr was scum there is no way he could've lived
5. please we have a conftown don't question it

[orcinus_theoriginal]

VOTE: Primate

I don't think I'm getting my flubber lynch today

you are not getting your flubber lynch ever and this is why

the first reason is because feysal is a god and we are all going to sheep some stuff he said

Spoiler: waffle's attack on flubber

@Flubber, oh sorry, I claim scum I wanted to fake newbiness for my evil master plan.
I just want to point out that I did answer. There is no disputing that. You may however dispute that I didn't answer it honestly. But hey maybe my entire answer was a metaphor for some sexual action, you can never be sure:)

@Massive, Well clearly I'm not looking town, unless townie players are honoured by L-2. I'm going to assume you weren't asking that though; technically I guess I'm trying to look town, by defending myself.

@Flubber (again), so are you actually going to explain your "Can we get one more?" post? Or are you just gonna type N's. I can do that too!

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

@Bookitty, I'll look back at the game a bit and get back to you.

@Feysal, you want me to post reads even though I have little to base them off and probably don't believe them? Okay!

Town
-WaffleGhost

Scum
-Everyone else

and let's not refer to my beautiful (almost) defense as a plot. It really wasn't all that convoluted if you think. . . . I mean, people aren't going to attack you if they admit you were joking.

Okay so, brief 60 second analysis of the last 2 pages: I don't like Bookitty's "I hate being trolled" excuse to vote me; there is 0 mention of anythign being scummy and also just suddenly hopping on a wagon comes off as really scummy. Secondly, GreyICE is not looking exceptionally good to me for basically the same reasons. Did this not become scummy until Feysal said it??? AND C, I really am not liking Flubber's whole "Can we get one more?" If you want me hammered, man up and do it yourself. Do you not want to take responsibility for hammering someone you know is a townie?

Vote: Flubber

"Eh, whatever." should never be used to vote someone. Points for grammar though. How you found that part of the post scummy and not just offensive is not coming to me. Could you please explain how that is cause to vote for me.
@Flubber you seem to want my lynch, why not now???

Are we seriously ignoring how Flubber is trying to get my lynch without even voting for me?

@Garmr, Flubber and GreyICE with 2birds as a possible 3rd.

@Bookitty, I would shoot Rumia x Cirno. Nah, I'd probably go with Flubber.

Really they evolved after the last 2-3ish pages. I don't like Flubber's asking for my lynch and not even voting for me. Looking back at the game, GreyICE hasn't done anything egregiously scummy, he just kinda annoys me. I'm sure I do that to other people though XD

this is not how waffle would treat a scummate

in the words of feysal this is scum deflecting to save his hide, not distancing

[orcinus_theoriginal]

primate

we're lynching you today

drop a reads list

thanks!

[orcinus_theoriginal]

and just to recap

primate, prohawk, massive

we win if we lynch above pool with our 3 remaining lynches ^^^^

are we good here

is this a plan

if anybody knows what my little birdie does, tell me. otherwise massive is getting a gift tonight

[Primate]

primate

we're lynching you today

drop a reads list

thanks!

Sure.

I think it's Prohawk or Massive. Probably Massive.

I think Garmrs town because he's acting really town + bookitty.

VDA town for obvious reasons.

I don't think you are because it's an odd claim for scum jackel to make/be, and it's an odd maneuver for GreyIce to want to bus if that's what you think he was doing.

Total Wreck's been acting pretty town and Gendaberry's very early read on waffle felt natural.

Massive I just have a mild townread on, though it's not as solid as some others.

I read FlubberNuggets posts and feel he feels very natural which suggests town. Your points about him and waffle make sense also.

I think the scum is prohawk. His interaction D1 with GreyIce looks in line with a person who doesn't really want to attack GreyIce properly (and later he overemphasized it in his mind when he tried to present it to us). His reaction to his scumbuddy claiming scum was partially hysterical and never explained, and I just think he's scummy generally. I've been wrong a bunch this game though sooo.

If it's not prohawk, I'm not sure. Massive maybe? Long shot TW? You'd have to do some digging over the earlier game. You should have things like claims to help you anyway if it gets that far. I get why you're setting up three lynches, but you can't that without factoring in the mass claim, and no way we're doing that now. Happy with it as a plan bar the last day needing to be more flexible though.

[Primate]

I think it's Prohawk or Massive. Probably Massive.

should be

I think it's Prohawk or Massive. Probably

Massive

Prohawk.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Scum being in you/massive/pro is something I'm 90% certain in and willing to bet game on

Actually I wonder if we should get massive and prohaek to claim now

Hmm

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Oh hang on i am living until Lylo so I can just strongarm people into not be stupid

Ok yeah never mind no claim today

VOTE: primate

Hammer when ready folks

[Primate]

re 90%: I think you're probably right too. Try and review each time you're wrong though, don't just double down on the plan.

I don't think it's wise to get people to claim when you're 90% I'm the lynch for the day. It gives the scum info for their nightkillbut isn't really as useful for us unless we have a more influential night ability than the scum kill.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

you are lynch for the day regardless

the thing is prohawk and massive are going to be next two lynches so i'm wondering if i can use claims to better faciliate night actions just in case something odd happens

i mean i think i just want to set the plan in stone because flubber is town due to waffle->flubber interaction, total wreck is town due to gams->waffle interaction, keep it simple and don't get paranoid and do stupid shit

[orcinus_theoriginal]

the thing is prohawk and massive are going to be next two lynches so i'm wondering if i can use claims to better faciliate night actions just in case something odd happens

actually yeah garmr / VDA what do you guys think about this

[orcinus_theoriginal]

re 90%: I think you're probably right too. Try and review each time you're wrong though, don't just double down on the plan.

i mean the only possible way we have a chance of losing is if i'm the mislynch and i'm good at yelling at people until they accept my love

[Primate]

re 90%: I think you're probably right too. Try and review each time you're wrong though, don't just double down on the plan.

i mean the only possible way we have a chance of losing is if i'm the mislynch and i'm good at yelling at people until they accept my love

Or if TW or Flubber is the scum (or obviously from everyone else's perspective, you are).

I mean, I think it's unlikely too, but you need to consider it, especially after you've got four more dead townies that you can use to get additional info about the living players that you can use to make better reads that you can currently.

It is not a good idea for the prohawk and massive to claim. If they claim boring things the scum can probably just kill VDA tonight because they know it's less likely that there is a doc on him. Leaving it ambiguous makes it more likely that the scum has to kill amongst the "townish but not confirmed" crowd if he suspects a protective role. Things aren't that cut an dry, but it's better for the scum one to fear the other than just know that there's nothing in that.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

you realize of course that killing prohawk and massive is a blessing for us because on the offchance that i'm wrong bout TW/Flubber and we go to lylo we now have a conftown in garmr/VDA rather than prohawk/massive

[orcinus_theoriginal]

like here's why we should force prohawk and massive to claim
-scum killing prohawk/massive gives us a shot at life if i'm wrong about scum being in primate/prohawk/massive (i'm not wrong). so they're not getting nightkilled. there's no way. why would scum kill even a PR over, say, a proven cop or a literal inno child who's actually doing shit
-at least one person in this town (me) has a night action and it would be better served for me to have pro/massive claim so we know how to use our night action
scum gains nothing from prohawk/massive claiming because they simply cannot afford to nightkill them

[Primate]

The only reason that one of them would be killed though is if they have a role that the scum deems worth killing, which, given their status in the game and the existence of multiple conftown, would have to be something awesome. Which means we probably don't want them nightkilled. I don't want to discuss what kind of roles they could claim in case I give them ideas, but it shouldn't be hard for you to imagine a few.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

in a game with 3 lynches to go and only 1 scum to hit, literally nothing trumps conftown status, which garmr and VDA both are

we are not playing the game of "500 what ifs under the sun"

like people don't lynch claim PRs because with respect to risk/reward it's a worse decision than lynching say a claimed VT and you can always hope scum will NK the PR

but that is irrelevant in this scenario because we don't /need/ PR power and looking at balance we are unlikely to have anything significant

i also have a reason for asking for this claim