Mini 1626: Duck Tales Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #2200 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 1:28 am

Post by DOMO »

This kitty thing is something else I might be wrong about. I've found it difficult to trust pasch simply because so many people are scumreading him. So it's difficult to judge the sincerity of his attacks on kitty. There have been a couple of pings from kitty, which is more than pasch. That's why I'd sooner lynch kitty.

I think scum is almost certainly in this group, loosely in order of confidence -

bulba, nm, ds, pn, kitty

But like I say, I need more time to expand these mostly gut reads into something with more substance.
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Post Post #2201 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 1:47 am

Post by farside22 »

So I looked at tw.
I saw this and thought he had a confirm scum.
Total Wreck wrote:And Bulbous Zack is scum, lynch him tomorrow.


As I read further, he unvoted bulba, which makes no sense at all if he had confirmed scum.
His last words struck me the most.
Total Wreck wrote:Losing me won't cost town much, if I
am
MK'ed, as I'm mislynch bait anyway

So at least there is a bright side. :-)


I think he checked some who is dead. I don't know for fact but if he had role info or confirmed town or scum in the game those are words I expect to see from a cop.

Next up will be looking at bulba, Domo, kitty and check votes.
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Post Post #2202 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:59 am

Post by Paschendale »

Bulbazak wrote:Domo is scum for the timing of his pushes and how they always align with me being under heavy suspicion. His reasoning is also nonsensical and just looks like a quick justification for why he's pushing and to show that his reasoning is different from everyone else's. The next scummy person on the wagon is Double, due to their hiding behind TW. After I flip town they can then claim no responsibility, because they were only following up on TW's reads and non-existent guilty.


Domo has been making well founded arguments the whole game. You haven't been. You've been mostly flying under the radar and now you come out swinging because there's a popular move against you? No way Domo is scum unless this is some kind of mutual bus.

EXAKT Science wrote:hmmmm, I like the majority of what you have to say here.

Pasch, if KCC is scum, who is her scumbuddy?


I'm not certain. Her interactions have been so limited. She mainly only engaged with Shiny, Mastin, and Wreck in cooperative ways, and almost exclusively attacked me. I would look more at reactions to her, rather than her actions, because it seems like scum have been deliberately ignoring each other.

DOMO wrote:Allow me to bullet point my scumread on bulba -

- meta link that I found in the games wreck linked - see post #411,
- defends by taking my attack seriously, not how I'd have replied if town - see posts #516 and #631,
- complaining about the d1 hammer pre-flip when everyone else was happy the day had ended,
- starts d2 with a really obvious fake crumb,
- responds to my accusation of dropping a fake crumbs by talking to me as though I'm town, rather than accusing me of rolefishing him,
- swinging for me, I believe because it's obvious that I'm not scum with bulba + pine, so I'm a safe target in terms of leaving a trail if he flips.

Ok that pretty much sums up why I think bulba is scum. However, I was very wrong yesterday about wreck, and I've put less effort into figuring bulba out. That said, bulba is clearly our best lynch today. mastin demanded my vote today (and tomorrow for that matter) and I owe her at least bulba before stopping to reassess.


Why does it matter what Mastin thought? She knew less than we know now. I don't think we owe someone anything, and her being town doesn't mean she was right.

Otherwise, some of these points are good. I didn't like the fake crumb bit either. But being mad at a hammer without a claim seems pretty normal to me. A lot of people, usually town, get pissed off at that. And it seems odd that most of the rest of this case is based on his reaction to you specifically. I don't see why talking to you as if you're town while criticizing you makes a difference (some people just talk as if everyone is town), or why accusing you is scummy. I think you're town, but it has nothing to do with Pine. I think a much better reason to suspect Bulba is the way he pretty much coasted through day 2. You want active lurking, there's some active lurking. Bulba didn't stick his neck out on anything throughout the day and cast pretty safe votes.

And what about this supposed guilty read from TW? What's the deal with that?

DOMO wrote:I think scum is almost certainly in this group, loosely in order of confidence -

bulba, nm, ds, pn, kitty


I definitely want to talk about NM when the holiday is over. He's been pinging me a bit, too. I think I haven't been paying as much attention to the PN/Aronis slot and definitely want to hear your thoughts on that. Not seeing Doubleslap, though. And, of course, we should lynch Kitty today. We should have lynched Kitty yesterday.

farside22 wrote:So I looked at tw.
I saw this and thought he had a confirm scum.
Total Wreck wrote:And Bulbous Zack is scum, lynch him tomorrow.


As I read further, he unvoted bulba, which makes no sense at all if he had confirmed scum.


Yeah, that definitely doesn't sound like a cop result. And again, if they did have a guilty result, there was no reason to be coy. It was a one shot ability so there was nothing to protect for future use. If TW had a guilty result, there was no reason not to claim completely.
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Post Post #2203 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 5:04 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

EXAKT Science wrote:Pasch, if KCC is scum, who is her scumbuddy?

TW -obviously.
Paschendale wrote:
KittyCupCake wrote:We're almost exactly where we were Yesterday, to the point where I'm looking at this as Day 2 Part 2, post-intermission.
This isn't even a little bit true. Mastin and TW were two of the most contentious players and were consistently near the tops of many scumlists. The only reason to pretend that this information doesn't matter is if someone is trying to keep town from considering this and seeing what to glean from their reads and what to disregard. Quicklynching without thinking, especially based on earlier reads with less information, absolutely benefits scum.

The info we've gained is pretty much exactly what
I
expected: TW as town, mastin as a PR. I was
clearly
saying there was nothing new that significantly changes
my
reads or which makes
me
want to do anything different from what we were in the middle of doing Yesterday, scumbag.


I was certainly surpri...

Blah blah blah.

Bulbazak wrote:Kitty's town.

That's cute.

Bulbazak wrote:
KittyCupCake wrote:50-50 are pretty good odds on a lynch, BTW.
So I'm null. Why are you wanting to lynch a null read over a scum read? I can see if it was the end of the day and you were compromising, but it doesn't make sense at the very beginning of the day when you actually have a strong scum read.

Oh, right, I guess I need to do math lessons here now.

By default, people have about a 25% chance of being scum. Today, we're at 22%. 50-50 is
not
a null read. On the contrary, 50-50 is the ideal baseline for a lynch. If a town can manage to do 50-50 lynches every day, they win.

-With that said, yes, pasch is up at like 90%, but if me making the "second best case of 2014" isn't enough to convince people to lynch the so, so painfully obvious scum, then I don't know what else to do at this point. And I don't at all feel like trying right now. So, I'm fine with the good percentage lynch Today, and I'll come back around to pasch later.

farside22 wrote:So I looked at tw.
I saw this and thought he had a confirm scum.
Total Wreck wrote:And Bulbous Zack is scum, lynch him tomorrow.

As I read further, he unvoted bulba, which makes no sense at all if he had confirmed scum.

He said this
after
he already moved his vote to Domo, as a reminder that his vote being on Domo didn't mean Bulba was any less scum.

He also later voted pasch, citing a possible bulba/pasch team.
And he also expressed some suspicion of you, fs, as a bulba/fs team.

-Do you see the common theme there? -All day, TW was saying, "Bulba is scum, who is his scum buddy?"

Is it definitely a result? -No, clearly. And if that's the only reason someone has for voting Bulba, that's a terrible reason. But there's nothing in TW's posts that rules it out (although, the fact that he didn't just come out with it with only 1-shot makes it less likely), and several things that do hint in that direction. Anyway, together with all the reasons Bulba was a good lynch Yesterday, he is just a slightly better lynch Today.
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Post Post #2204 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 5:11 am

Post by farside22 »

Kcc: I had thought about that as well but post 2102 makes me doubt that.
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Post Post #2205 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 5:16 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

farside22 wrote:Kcc: I had thought about that as well but post 2102 makes me doubt that.

All I think that says is that he
did
already use his shot (otherwise, we'd be losing that).
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Post Post #2206 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 5:22 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

Anyway, can we
not
do this? -We aren't going to know one way or the other until the game ends now. Speculating is kinda useless. It's probably best to assume he didn't have a result and use what we actually have in the thread to decide the lynch.
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Post Post #2207 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 6:36 am

Post by farside22 »

Okay so here isn't question to those voting bulba.
Why is bulba scum?

I read bulba ISO and I don't see him as scum.
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Post Post #2208 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 7:47 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

farside22 wrote:Okay so here isn't question to those voting bulba.
Why is bulba scum?

I read bulba ISO and I don't see him as scum.

The dead townies made decent cases; I can try to dig them up if you want, but it's mostly interactions.
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Post Post #2209 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 8:03 am

Post by farside22 »

Few things bother me with kcc.

KittyCupCake wrote:
Shiny Hydreigon wrote:the thing is, i wasnt screaming at him to give reads because i wanted to know his reads. it was because I knew it was impossible to have the definite scumread he had from two posts, and i knew he wouldnt be able to explain it.

but of course you wont care about that difference
Oh, I understand. But now, I want to see yours. -Not because I actually want to know why you have that read, but just to make sure you actually have a reason. -Because, despite everything else, the excessive lengths you've now gone to avoid doing this is making me question things.

Seriously, it shouldn't be that hard to make a brief sentence or two regarding your read. Stop making everything so needlessly difficult.
Total Wreck wrote:If this is true, please do so and I will happily join you there.

UNVOTE: Romi
VOTE: Pasch

KittyCupCake wrote:
Shiny Hydreigon wrote:Kitty, with what we kinda sorta talked about last night, do you still think Wreck is town? I also do not think you should move pine to town just because of that one move he's done.

Pine is town.
TW... I'm going over with a magnifying glass.
Paschendale wrote:only that that's clearly your goal.
Because clearly there is no other possible motivation for not being as obnoxious as possible.

Paschendale wrote:The tug-of-war between Shiny and Mastin is pretty much the only thing you're really discussing
Hahaha. Yeah, I've been mainly discussing the main topic of discussion, and less so discussing the lesser topics of discussion. Is there a point in there?

(I'm assuming you meant TW there not mastin, otherwise, I'm really confused)
Paschendale wrote:and it's more about whose side to choose than any reason someone might actually be right in their accusations.
And more vaguely throwing mud in my direction without anything to back it up (and just like the last time, it's because you can't).

Paschendale wrote:I'm one of the few people giving reasons for my suspicions and yes, I'm frustrated that so many others won't.
Pasch keeps saying things like this: "Oh, I'm the only one around here doing anything." Since this wouldn't mean as much from me, does anyone else want to iso him and double check how much more analysis he has been doing than everyone else?

KittyCupCake wrote:
Shiny Hydreigon wrote:or, actually, can we lynch pine? he's the only real one we agree on

Pine is in my bottom 4. I'll give him a thorough review first, but I could be up for this.

KittyCupCake wrote:VOTE: Bulba

Pasch can be next.



One post she has pine as town but moves him to her top 4 scum read.
Her current vote on bulba.
I see a lot of pasch push but I don't see why she thinks bulba is scum.
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Post Post #2210 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 8:04 am

Post by farside22 »

KittyCupCake wrote:
farside22 wrote:Okay so here isn't question to those voting bulba.
Why is bulba scum?

I read bulba ISO and I don't see him as scum.

The dead townies made decent cases; I can try to dig them up if you want, but it's mostly interactions.



Interaction with pine? Or someone else? Can you give an example of the interaction you found.
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Post Post #2211 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 8:17 am

Post by EXAKT Science »

KittyCupCake wrote:
farside22 wrote:Okay so here isn't question to those voting bulba.
Why is bulba scum?

I read bulba ISO and I don't see him as scum.

The dead townies made decent cases; I can try to dig them up if you want, but it's mostly interactions.

the dead townies also lacked the information we've gotten from the last couple of flips. if you have a case on bulbazak, make it. don't just stand there and say that he's obviously scum while not giving us any reason to trust your read.
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Post Post #2212 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:09 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

farside22 wrote:One post she has pine as town but moves him to her top 4 scum read.

I briefly had him as very town for that one slip-catch-mistake-thing that looked genuine. People who knew him better told me not to do that, so I reread him more closely, and he ended up near the bottom of my list.

farside22 wrote:Interaction with pine? Or someone else? Can you give an example of the interaction you found.

Pine, TW, shiny. I'll try to find specifics at some point.

EXAKT Science wrote:the dead townies also lacked the information we've gotten from the last couple of flips.

I'm pretty sure TW knew TW was town. And mastin not only knew mastin was town but was very, very confident in TW town.
EXAKT Science wrote:if you have a case on bulbazak, make it. don't just stand there and say that he's obviously scum while not giving us any reason to trust your read.

WTF are you talking about? -I'm not saying he's obvious scum, I'd say he's about a coin toss. And I'm not wasting my time on another case that no one will even fucking read, especially on a player who isn't my first choice, and especially, especially on a player who already has enough support for a lynch.

-If you want to see a case on obvious scum, go read my pasch case from Yesterday.
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Post Post #2213 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:13 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

EXAKT Science wrote:if you have a case on bulbazak, make it. don't just stand there and say that he's obviously scum while not giving us any reason to trust your read.

You're the one who came into the game saying Bulba was scum (no explanation) and threw down a vote. If you want a case,
you
can go make one.
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Post Post #2214 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:19 am

Post by EXAKT Science »

i'm feeling less keen on bulba than i am on you at the moment, tho. that's why i'm voting you; you're probably my biggest scumread. why aren't you voting for your biggest scumread, and instead voting a null while setting up your scumread for a chainlynch?
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Post Post #2215 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:44 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

EXAKT Science wrote:i'm feeling less keen on bulba than i am on you at the moment, tho. that's why i'm voting you; you're probably my biggest scumread.

Why don't you case
me
, then?
EXAKT Science wrote:why aren't you voting for your biggest scumread, and instead voting a null while setting up your scumread for a chainlynch?

If you were reading, you wouldn't need to ask these. But, I'll go through it again slowly for you.

-Bulba's not fucking null. He's my second strongest read. 50% chance of scum is a perfectly good lynch candidate.
-I
could
stubbornly keep my vote on the def scum, where there is no support, who no one is bothering to read or pay attention to, but, since I can't, unfortunately, perform unilateral lynches, and the other competent townies who'd vote with me are now dead, that seems pointless. Or... or, I could put my vote on
another
decent suspect, but one where there
is
additional support, which does this amazing thing called actually moving the game forward.
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Post Post #2216 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:57 am

Post by EXAKT Science »

KittyCupCake wrote:
EXAKT Science wrote:i'm feeling less keen on bulba than i am on you at the moment, tho. that's why i'm voting you; you're probably my biggest scumread.

Why don't you case
me
, then?
EXAKT Science wrote:why aren't you voting for your biggest scumread, and instead voting a null while setting up your scumread for a chainlynch?

If you were reading, you wouldn't need to ask these. But, I'll go through it again slowly for you.

-Bulba's not fucking null. He's my second strongest read. 50% chance of scum is a perfectly good lynch candidate.
-I
could
stubbornly keep my vote on the def scum, where there is no support, who no one is bothering to read or pay attention to, but, since I can't, unfortunately, perform unilateral lynches, and the other competent townies who'd vote with me are now dead, that seems pointless. Or... or, I could put my vote on
another
decent suspect, but one where there
is
additional support, which does this amazing thing called actually moving the game forward.

dude, chill.
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Post Post #2217 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:00 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

Pasch was my biggest scumread going in to night 1, Bulba was my biggest going in to night 2, I was ready to vote Bulba out the gate but Doubleslap's post has me second guessing, I could definitely split the difference and go for Pasch
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
I will SEARCH for games with you and N_M to help you policy him.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
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Post Post #2218 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:01 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

Having said that

Bulbazak wrote:
Wisdom, one of these days you'll learn how to actually scumhunt.
Why is Kitty scum? Why is everyone on her wagon town? Because that's what you're suggesting. You have taken zero interest in figuring out her or my alignment. If you thought my stance was BS, then you should have asked me how I came to my reads on everyone. I've been very clear on my Kitty, TW, and Pasch reads. Less so on my Aronis and Jeckel reads, mostly because they are developing. Aronis's first and only post is opportunistic as crap and exactly what I'd expect from scum him. Jeckel might be town, but his first post, which jumped on the emerging Kitty wagon, felt very mechanical. The only legit vote I've seen is Farside, and that looks to be largely personal. So again, what's the Kitty case?


Pine wrote:Push on Bulba feels off. I don't see much scumminess from Bulba, much less what Hydreigon is showing
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
I will SEARCH for games with you and N_M to help you policy him.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
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Post Post #2219 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:03 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

VOTE: Bulba Sorting this is my priority right now, sticking to my original read, my initial reads are usually a lot more accurate, and I have no idea how to read Marquis
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
I will SEARCH for games with you and N_M to help you policy him.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
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Post Post #2220 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:03 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

Maybe L-1
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
I will SEARCH for games with you and N_M to help you policy him.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
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Post Post #2221 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:12 am

Post by Perpetual Nonsense »

Hmm.
Bulba claim please
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Post Post #2222 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:12 am

Post by Perpetual Nonsense »

Just kidding.
VOTE: Bulbazak
Lynch -1.
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Post Post #2223 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:18 am

Post by EXAKT Science »

yeah bulba, claim. intent to hammer.
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Post Post #2224 (ISO) » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:21 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

EXAKT Science wrote:That, plus her posts now, where she says she's only 50-50 on bulba while being totally willing to take him to -1 two weeks out from deadline, which is hedgy as hell and not something I'd ever expect to see from a townie.
VOTE: KittyCupCake


EXAKT Science wrote:i'm feeling less keen on bulba than i am on you at the moment, tho.


EXAKT Science wrote:yeah bulba, claim. intent to hammer.
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
I will SEARCH for games with you and N_M to help you policy him.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
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