Mini 1630: Edgar Allan Poe uPick GAME OVER!

[CaskOfAmontillado]

I see Ghatokaca's name at the bottom of the main forum page under "currently active users." I expect to see a post by the time I finish brewing my tea.

[Bookitty]

Because it was fabricated last night.

This doesn't make sense either. I see no reason why scum would be willing to go 1v1 for your role. Anyway, it also assumes that scum wouldn't adjust for changing conditions on the ground.

Your reaction is so opposite to what mine would be in this situation, Kthxbye. If I could trade the role you have and my life for a guaranteed scum lynch, I'd be delighted. You were even proposing 1v1 with copper earlier in the game. Why are you so survival-motivated now?

[Faster Than Light]

I made it back safely.
-V

[BRantz]

Sorry everyone, have been very busy this week with school starting back up. Will catch up and have a post friday.

[CaskOfAmontillado]

No word from Ghatokaca. I'm disappointed.

[Medea the Alien]

Hi. My fever has broken, I'm mostly back to normal and am now catching up once more. Should my health or schedule necessitate any more away time then I will replace out, but until then I still feel like I can make some sort of impact this game.

[Bookitty]

I've been thinking about what kthxbye said about Krystal's post being planned out last night. I think to believe this, you have to believe a few other things as well.

1. You have to believe that the scum team must have found Kthxbye's power really really intimidating, enough so that they were willing to trade one-for-one scum for town. I don't buy this.

2. You have to believe that Krystal is not smart enough to adjust the play when more valuable town roles were claimed. In particular, the claimed even-night investigative role and the claimed vig would have been a simple matter of changing the names and the roles. Krystal's post was articulate and smart. I am sure she is too. So I don't buy this either.

3. You have to believe that someone on the scum team has a power that MUST NOT be revealed upon their death. This implies strongly that the person was at risk of death, too, because if not a sacrifice play at this point would make no sense. The only person who fits the second part of that description (last night, remember) is CoA; however, Krystal's timing makes no sense in this regard because the pressure was pretty much off CoA and on Medea and kthxbye at the time that she posted. I don't think CoA is scum anyway at this point, so I really don't buy this.

I don't believe any of those three things, so I feel pretty sure that kthxbye is scum and Krystal is telling the truth. Calling that confbias is pretty silly given that I was clearly confbiased the other way because of Kthx's role and without Krystal's input I probably still would be.

Ninja'd: I'm glad you're feeling better, Medea. I'm also glad Varsoon did not die.

[Kthxbye]

I'll be honest y'all, I don't like how insistent Boo is being that I am today's lynch and is clogging the thread to prevent anyone from taking a step back and actually thinking about it.

If I'm still today's lynch at the end of the day, take ^this thought into account after lynching the shit outa Krystal.

[copper223]

@Boo
I also have been thinking about it and what Kthxbye said is not completly crazy you know, I'll post more after a nice rest but I don't think we should just lynch without exploring both scenarios in more detail.

[copper223]

@Kthx
That is not scum indicative for Boo.

[Bookitty]

@Boo
I also have been thinking about it and what Kthxbye said is not completly crazy you know, I'll post more after a nice rest but I don't think we should just lynch without exploring both scenarios in more detail.

I'm happy to consider other perspectives. Obviously I'm considering the implications of kthxbye-town and Krystal-scum and vice versa; that's what my whole last post was about.

[Medea the Alien]

From a quick skim of the past few IRL days:

Inclined to believe KB over kthnx for several reasons, which other people have mostly stated. Will also add that ffery and I have talked extensively before about post restrictions that have both positive and negative feedback. Some of that was seen in her prior mini theme, where the post restriction, when followed, enabled extra aspects of a role.

Don't understand why people are attacking ghato over the "he lied about neighborizing lynx" thing. In what universe does scum-ghato claim the dead neighborize day one, claim their target, then not actually do exactly that? I mean, there's literally no upside to NOT neighborizing lynx there.

I find it likely there's a third party out there. ffery as a game designer is fond of neutral third parties (think survivor) and giving them options to win with either side as they so choose, but serial killer isn't out of the realm of possibility either. This also explains the result from lynx's ability. It's the mod's way of hinting at multiple alignments out there, without flat out stating it. It is her (ffery's) lexicon to collectively call anything non-town "scum" not just a mafia faction. I find it most likely that there was a third party on that wagon, in addition to one scum. So third party and one scum on the wagon. Rest of scum (1 or 2) off the wagon. The fact that ffery went with "non-morbid" instead of stating the name of the scum faction in both lynx's role PM and the results ITT also lends support to this theory.

More thoughts in a bit.

[Bookitty]

Points I've considered in thinking Kthxbye could be town:

If I am right about the "at least one" being just one, then we have this off the wagon:

FTL and Brantz almost certainly town.
CoA being probably town.

That's two of three of Krystal Bald, Tiershift and Medea the Alien as scum. That's very bad odds for scum and might merit killing someone on the wagon who is town.

Bookitty, Kthxbye, copper, Ghato and catastrophe

If Kthxbye is town, then my whole case on Cat is worthless and should be thrown out. That doesn't make him town, but it sure doesn't make him scum for sure either.

Now you have Bookitty, copper, Ghato and catastrophe. Suddenly that looks like much better odds for lynching within if you're pushing the two on the wagon one off the wagon theory, which several people are.

You have Krystal who will be the lynch for tomorrow, reducing statistical chance for a lynch between Tiershift and Medea. This also makes Tiershift look more suspicious because he was saying "I'm not going to effort because it's just a lynch-off-a-list scenario;" I can see scum saying that out of frustration.

Note that this only works if I'm right about the "at least one" thing meaning one. I've been shouted down about this a lot, though.

If Krystal is scum pushing this particular lynch, it has nothing to do with kthxbye, nothing to do with last night and everything to do with numerical probabilities. It also means that CoA is almost certainly not the other scum off the wagon, because he was out of immediate suspicion at the time Krystal made her post.

I don't know. It's what I thought about, and I came down on the other side. But I don't see a downside for revealing this thought process to town.

[Bookitty]

Mathematically:

On the wagon:

Bookitty
kthxbye
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Off the wagon:

Krystal Bald
Tiershift
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado

Let's assume that everyone agrees two scum on and one scum off. Take out Krystal Bald as the one scum off the wagon and kthxbye as town on the wagon, and you have this:

On the wagon

Bookitty
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Off the wagon:

Tiershift
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado(PROBTOWN)

The people off the wagon will be assumed clear because the one scum off the wagon has been caught. Now you have a pool of four with two scum in them. Scum will kill in the off-the-wagon group and the four names on the wagon will be your lynch group.

Okay, let's assume that everyone agrees with one scum on and two scum off?

On the wagon

Bookitty
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Off the wagon:

Tiershift
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado(PROBTOWN)

Now it's one in four for the top four and one in three (probably just two) for the bottom five. That's a significant shift in the odds of lynching scum, but it doesn't falsely rule out the possibility of scum in the bottom five.

It's math. It depends on my being right about only one scum in the top four, though, and I'm not sure of that. It also implies that Tiershift or Medea are scum. (CoA wanted to lynch in the off wagon pool, remember. It's my opinion that scum wouldn't want that if this theory is correct.)

If you see mistakes here, please, PLEASE point them out. This is compiled from rough notes I made in a waiting room and it's not guaranteed to be absolutely correct.

So, no, Kthxbye, I did think about it. I just came down on the other side ultimately because I'm not confident about the "at least one" thing, and it all hinges on that.

[Kthxbye]

Inclined to believe KB over kthnx

H-O-L-Y S-H-I-T! NO FREAKING WAY?! REALLY???

/end sarcasm

[Kthxbye]

then my whole case on Cat is worthless and should be thrown out.

ding ding ding

[Bookitty]

then my whole case on Cat is worthless and should be thrown out.

ding ding ding

THIS is what you choose out of all that to comment on?

Why that?

[copper223]

@Kthx
Why are you calling Boo questionable town when you said I was 100% town for going back and looking at associations with you? Her case on Cat would be an even bigger wasted effort.

[copper223]

@Boo
To add to 1112 if the lynch was going to be on scum anyway (so Medea), possibly scum with a more useful power, it's not a bad result and kthx has a point about greatly increasing the % of success if you cc him in particular.

[Bookitty]

I do not know if this will help, but for completeness, the flip side of this is:

On the wagon:

Bookitty
KthxbyeSCUM
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Krystal BaldTOWN
Tiershift
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado(PROBTOWN)

Assuming two scum on the wagon, this leaves:

One scum in Bookitty, Copper, Ghato and Catastrophe
One scum in Tiershift, Medea and (very unlikely) CoA

Assuming one scum on the wagon, this leaves:

Two scum in Tiershift and Medea with an outside chance of CoA

In this case, scum would have no choice but to nightkill on the wagon or be outed completely.

Krystal would have saved CoA's life in this case and would have narrowed the lynch pool to an almost autowin status imo regardless of who is right about Ffery's wording.

[Kthxbye]

Here's the last thing I'm going to say about today.

I'm not gonna just roll over and die and thus I should UNVOTE:

Going to assume a 10 player town with a 3 player scum for simplicity and because there's no real reason to assume 3rd party other than weird wording.

Scenario 1:

You lynch me today. I flip town. We lose card flips. Scum hit *town* (prolly copper imo) tonight. Tomorrow it's 6v3. You lynch Kyrstal. Kyrstal flips scum. Scum hit *town* at night. D4 starts with 5v2.

Scenario 2:

We lynch Krystal today. She flips scum. Scum hit *town* (prolly me b/c of I'd be confirmed town barring some crazy scum gambit krystal and I are trying to pull). Tomorrow it's 7v2. I'm confirmed town or dead.

Additional scenarios from y'all POV.

*Scenario 3:

We lynch Krystal today. She flips town. We lose nothing (PR wise). Scum hit *town* (If I'm strongman, I apparently take out CoA). Tomorrow it'd be 6v3. You lynch me. I'd flip scum. We lose card flips. Scum hit *town* at night. D4 starts with 5v2.

*Scenario 4:

You lynch me today. I flip scum. We lose card flips. Scum hit *town* (If I'm scum and scum lose Strongman, copper dies here). Tomorrow it'd be 7v2. Kyrstal is confirmed town with no PR and in a game she's not enjoying and can barely communicate in.

Scenario 5:

(.000001% chance)
We lynch either today and the other tomorrow and both of us flip town. Town is fucked and this game is stupid.

Now, look at all the scenarios. Scenario 1 and 2 are the only real possibilities, but I've said that already and you don't believe me so I simply want you to look at this from a pure mathematical equation.
Both S1 (my lynch) and S3 (a town-Krystal lynch) result in EXACTLY THE SAME result for D4....5v2.
Both S2 (Krystal is scum) and S4 (I'm scum) result in similar results but not the same. Both leave a confirmed town and a D3 start of 7v2, but S2 leaves us card flips and S4 leaves you with no PR at all.

Now tell me, what exactly is the benefit of lynching me before Krystal even if you only feel a <10% chance that I'm telling the truth?

I am town and if I were in your shoes, I wouldn't even remotely be worried about losing CoA if my choices were between CoA and copper. Strongman shouldn't even really be considered, but that's just my opinion.

p.edit: @copper, because Boo is being overly loud and pushy about my lynch being first and from where I sit, it's more than just town concern. From where I sit, it appears like she (unlike what you did) is trying to stop any discussion about lynching Krystal first before it even get's a chance to start. Pretend you 100% believe I'm town and you are in my shoes and then read the last pages worth of posts. You'd see what I'm talking about. I just want the thought out there in the event that I am still today's lynch so you have it after I flip town. I don't know if there's even anything to it, but if Boo is around in an end game situation...at least I'd have some input, right or wrong.

@Boo, cuz I'm super annoyed with you right now. How's bout you stfu for a few days and let people actually discuss the possibilities without you repeating the same shit over and over?

[Bookitty]

I really feel like you haven't even read my posts, Kthxbye.

If the general consensus is that I should STFU, though, I'll ask for replacement. I'm not interested in ruining the game for others.

[CaskOfAmontillado]

I agree with Medea on everything except ghato, where they're missing the point. I still think they're probably scum; those are all easy opinions to have.

I don't really care what Ghato has to say today, but I think my partner does. I think the game is breakable from here but I guess it's not terrible to plan for in case the wheels come off. I'm ready to end the day though, so reading along but not posting unless I'm addressed or something important comes up.

If the general consensus is that I should STFU, though, I'll ask for replacement. I'm not interested in ruining the game for others.

I think I addressed this in my last post.

There is no universe in which kthx is not the lynch today, barring PR clears.

-sthar8

[Kthxbye]

I really feel like you haven't even read my posts, Kthxbye.

If the general consensus is that I should STFU, though, I'll ask for replacement. I'm not interested in ruining the game for others.

Oh FFS. I didn't write that to hurt your feelings or have you replace. I simply want to win. Maybe I took it too far and for that I apologize.

As for your posts, well, I can honestly see them both ways. I can see scum trying to make the kamikaze worth while. I can however, believe it or not, see town in them in as far as you giving what I'm saying at least some consideration and in a town mindset, you don't know the answer. I see both. I'm just on a crusade to not let scum get their way in this and you constantly battling me is/was aggravating as all get out. If I step back though, I'm probably just as aggravating to you so....yeah....sorry. I actually like you and would never complain about playing in a MS game with you.

Please accept (which doesn't mean don't lynch me but outside of the game I'm sorry for being too harsh).

______________________

Now, let's lynch Krystal.

[Kthxbye]

There is no universe in which kthx is not the lynch today

Yes there is. I even spelled it out mathematically in 1120