Mini 1650: Greatest Idea Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:24 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

copper223 wrote:Soren, I am not going to tell you how scum can profit from it, suffice to say there is a reason why VT's don't mass claim D1 in the games you play.


In a game like this it's not so detrimental, but in say a newbie game where there's only one or two power roles, if every VT massclaimed at the start, scum would know who to night kill.

I think the worst thing I've done is narrow down scum's targets for something like a roleblock if they have it.
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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:27 am

Post by Soren »

copper223 wrote:Go learn about baysian updating before preaching about statistics, we have a vested interest in choosing one card over another because the powelevel of each is different and we want to win, which is something your initial distribution doesn't take into account so once you claim you are giving new information that update your initial probability, if you don't understand this it's your problem, end of discussion.


What has the inclination the pick certain cards got to do with the cards that we are dealt with which are not determined by our inclinations to pick certain cards?
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:37 am

Post by Soren »

KittyCupCake wrote:
Dechs Kaison wrote:Of course I wouldn't, but that's because you're using a flawed analogy.

Fair enough. -Let's look at it this way then:

I invite kiwi and DK to play my roll 6's to win diamonds game. I hand each one die, and let them roll in secret. First, Kiwi claims a 6. Okay, that's unlikely, but so is any given roll, and there is a 17% chance that he's telling the truth, the same as if he'd said any number. Then, however, DK claims a 6. Now, there's a 97% chance that at least one is lying. Why? Not because rolling one number is more likely than rolling another, or because rolling one influences the outcome of the other, but because the nature of the game encourages lying and makes some claimed outcomes more advantageous than others.

So, yes, the odds matter here. In a game where there is choice between roles, and therefore ending up with power is by far more likely than not, having one player claim a forced vanilla and another claim a forced negative power is very, very unlikely to contain honesty all around.

Man you guys are way smarter than me in logical thinking and maths. The thing about the nature of lying in this game that you said is very true.
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:39 am

Post by Soren »

I'm glad I decided to focus on this game, I'm learning a lot of new things and it's been very fun ^~^
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:39 am

Post by Soren »

I've been in a lot of games, but rarely any of them is as intense as this.
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 8:21 am

Post by NeedfulThings »

KittyCupCake wrote:The odds of a game using this setup having both a player with 3 vanilla cards and a player with 3 negative utility cards is about 1 in 500. So, now we're stretching plausibility with these claims. -It is still, technically, possible, of course, but only barely. I'd wager on at least one of these extraordinary claims being a lie.

I'm only going to write one paragraph on this and why this line of logic is a load of horseshit.

Everyone had to draw
some
combination of cards. It just had to happen. Your argument here, Kitty, is working backwards from the
claimed
combination and saying that it's unlikely and someone has to be lying. It's flashy and include words like "all vanilla" or "all negative utility" but you could make the exact same argument for
literally any combination
. But it's the same specious argument used by creationists when they talk about evolution: "X event didn't happen because it was unlikely to happen." That's not true since it's unlikely that we got
any
combination just due to the sheer number of combinations there are.

This isn't a good angle and it's pretty easily abused by scum.
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 8:34 am

Post by NeedfulThings »

KittyCupCake wrote:The odds of a game using this setup having
both
a player with 3 vanilla cards
and
a player with 3 negative utility cards is about 1 in 500. So, now we're stretching plausibility with these claims. -It is still, technically,
possible
, of course, but only barely. I'd wager on at least one of these extraordinary claims being a lie.

prawneater wrote:This is the last game I was in with WW. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=60415

Iso him, you'll see he does the same tree stuff as he's doing here. He was town that game.

After looking through that, I see WW posted a full read list in that game, which we haven't seen here, despite that being requested. And WW seriously pushed at its scum reads in that game, to the point of near spamming the thread, whereas the pushes here have been much lighter. And while it did do the tree stuff in that game, that wasn't to the exclusion of content and interaction, like we've seen for the second half of this game so far.

So, if that game is what its typical town play looks like, although I am seeing the same curtness and brevity that was mentioned as being part of its style; here, the play looks much more like an attempt to just avoid content and interaction.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: WW

You're a lot smarter than I am, I suppose.

Do you have any town reads, Kitty?
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:06 am

Post by NeedfulThings »

copper223 wrote:I like the second hydra of Soviet more than the first, comments on this Needful?

Not really impressed. The Dechs read
may
be legit, but defense is definitely one of their priorities.
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:40 am

Post by Zaicon »

Vote Count 1.10


Whomping Willow (6):
Kaboose, kiwieagle, Soren, Diego1487, Dechs Kaison, KittyCupCake
Soviet Crocolisk (2):
NeedfulThings, copper223
Dechs Kaison (2):
Whomping Willow, Soviet Crocolisk
copper223 (1):
Pirate Ika
Soren (1):
prawneater

No Vote (1):
guille2015

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Thursday, March 19, at 7:00 PM CST, which is in (expired on 2015-03-19 19:00:00).
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:40 am

Post by Soren »

Dechs would go for the more "fun" card if given the choice.

So in the event that he is dealt with three vanilla card, each belonging to different alignments, which would he think is more "fun"?

Vanilla townie? It's satisfying to out scum being a powerless townie, but this is more for those than relish in the pleasure of scum hunting. Has Dechs done much in that regards? Arguable yes and no. Yes because he's being pro town by refuting WW's proposal. No because he's mainly only focused on WW right now, rather than trying to out further scum.

Vanilla mafia? I think Dechs finds it more fun to put himself at a disadvantage and try to win from that. Vanilla mafia is pretty weak, however it can be compensated by stronger scum roles in his team. But Dechs adores that weakness.

I haven't looked at the GIM role possible role thing and cbb to find the link for it now, but there appears to be aliens and werewolves if my knowledge serves me right?

Regardless of that. I think Dechs would go for a vanilla scum role because he finds that more fun.

Anyone agree?

Unvote: Whomping Willow


I want to hear more from Dechs before someone hammers.
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:17 am

Post by Kaboose »

So you want to speculate on what Dechs would take if he even got the cards you're suggesting he might/could have gotten? That makes no sense.
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:17 am

Post by Soren »

What makes no sense is how your role is revealed under your name! Mafia scum you are!
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:17 am

Post by Soren »

No but seriously, we still have time, we can still discuss and learn more.
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:47 am

Post by NeedfulThings »

Sorry I disappeared guys.

699 is incredibly ironic.
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:50 am

Post by copper223 »

Ok let's play some mind games TTH, what's your read on me?
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:20 pm

Post by Soren »

KittyCupCake wrote:
Dechs Kaison wrote:Do not get focused on the odds of a situation happening. Imagine rolling ten six sided die and they all come up the same number. Yeah, you'd never guess that it could happen, but you just saw it happen. There's no use in saying "The odds of that happening is implausible, so I can't believe it just happened."

This isn't dice, this is mafia.

But, using your dice example, if I were tell someone I'd give them a diamond for every 6 they roll, and they turned around, rolled the dice secretly, turned back around and said, "I just rolled ten 6's, so hand over ten diamonds," well, I'd be
just a bit
skeptical. -Can you tell me that you
wouldn't
have doubts about that claim?

-So, yes, any given possible set of 3 cards is relatively unlikely on it's own, here; however, specifically and conveniently ordered sets are inherently less likely. And when you consider that this is a game that allows, and in fact encourages, deception from some of the players, using the odds as a plausibility test is perfectly reasonable.

Also, you've been strawmanning a bit. -I never said one of you
must
be lying. Despite the odds, I've acknowledged that it
is
, in fact, still possible. -Sure, I'm not buying it, but don't put words in my mouth.


Yeah well it's actually illogical to have doubts or be skeptical about that claim because of induction. Where we infer unobserved instances from observed instances.

When we roll a dice 6 times in a row we have been accustomed to see random numbers rather than six of the same number in a row. Therefore when we do see 6 same number in a row we find it odd. When in fact getting six of the same number in a row has the possibility of seeing 3, 1, 2, 1, 6, and 4.

What's even more illogical is how we have become accustomed to thinking that if we get six random numbers such as the example I just gave, we assume that nothing is odd with it. When in fact, if you think about it, when have you actually saw that combination of numbers in that exact order? Either never or very very very rarely.
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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Post by Soren »

Oh David Hume.
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:23 pm

Post by KittyCupCake »

NeedfulThings wrote:It's flashy and include words like "all vanilla" or "all negative utility" but you could make the exact same argument for
literally any combination
.

There is a fundamental difference, here, though, between the expected outcome of most players ending up with at least a mildly useful ability of some kind, and the alternative of drawing such a specific set of bad cards that leaves no beneficial options at all. You are right, however, that I may be approaching it in slightly the wrong way. Drawing three vanilla cards isn't needed to end up vanilla, since drawing one or two negative abilities along with a vanilla card or two would also end up with a vanilla, even if that's not what has been claimed here. So, really, those groups should be combined for this; meaning there are about 46 vanilla or worse cards. Which means there is at least a 20% chance of a game having two or more players dealt a group of 3 vanilla or worse cards. So, I guess that's not terribly unlikely at all.

NeedfulThings wrote:Do you have any town reads, Kitty?

My strongest is prawn, then copper and kiwi, and a little less so, you. I've also liked most of what I've seen from DK, but I doubt I'll have a solid read there, one way or the other, until much later in the game.
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:30 pm

Post by KittyCupCake »

Oh, I'm liking soren for town as well. That rapid posting style is really tough to do as scum without without slipping or having it look artificial.
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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:59 pm

Post by Dechs Kaison »

Soren wrote:Vanilla mafia? I think Dechs finds it more fun to put himself at a disadvantage and try to win from that. Vanilla mafia is pretty weak, however it can be compensated by stronger scum roles in his team. But Dechs adores that weakness.


You misunderstand. It's not really the weakness I adore. When I chose Alien over Mafia, it was for a couple reasons. It was weaker, but that was really just a side effect. I was thinking of the entire setup. I was worried too many people would choose Mafia and it would make for a really boring game. Also, Alien was a faction I knew I'd be more likely to be on my own. I really enjoyed that game because I got to scum hunt and deceive town players. Best of both worlds.

But Kaboose is right. Speculating on which alignment I would have chosen when you don't know which I was dealt is going to get you nowhere.
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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:10 pm

Post by Pirate Ika »

im drunk talk to me
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:37 pm

Post by Dechs Kaison »

Pirate Ika wrote:im drunk talk to me


Give us some reads.

What do you think of WW?

What do you think of Soren?

What's your take on SC?

Do you believe Kiwi's claim right out of the gate?
do noT attempt to read tHis mEssaGe, And believe Me, it is not a codE.

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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:44 pm

Post by Pirate Ika »

Dechs Kaison wrote:
Pirate Ika wrote:im drunk talk to me


Give us some reads.

your town cus i said so


What do you think of WW?

hes stupit supersaint


What do you think of Soren?

hes oped in fired emblem

Spoiler: fire embelmb spoilers
hes the branded is the son of dainian dude


What's your take on SC?

who?


Do you believe Kiwi's claim right out of the gate?

what was it? i will prob belive it cus im lazy
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:44 pm

Post by Pirate Ika »

i posted in bold for convenece
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:47 pm

Post by Dechs Kaison »

SC is Soviet Crocosomething.

Kiwi opened up the game with a Town Paranoid Gun Owner claim.

Also, what's your favorite drink? Mine's Laphroaig quarter cask.
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