A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[itlepip]

Oh yeah, for other people mainly.

The main reason that Podo's push is super scummy, regardless of whatever Dram is, is that he is super invested really early in the day in pushing a policy lynch on a lurker. The way town generally lynch lurkers is if there isn't a great deadline wagon people agree on someone with zero content and just kill them, you don't do that in the middle of the day as your top wagon. There isn't the amount of gamesolving that I would want from Podo.

[podoboq]

Oh yeah, for other people mainly.

The main reason that Podo's push is super scummy, regardless of whatever Dram is, is that he is super invested really early in the day in pushing a policy lynch on a lurker. The way town generally lynch lurkers is if there isn't a great deadline wagon people agree on someone with zero content and just kill them, you don't do that in the middle of the day as your top wagon. There isn't the amount of gamesolving that I would want from Podo.

In the process of responding to your last post, but in the meantime, let me remind people that I wasn't pushing dram. I just put my vote there as a safe park, explained that that's what the purpose was, and explained that I would come back to reassess the game later, on the assumption that we would lynch somebody else. I'm not expecting a dram lynch to occur, and frankly not seeing it as the best result for town right now, but it's better than leaving my vote parked somewhere I'm unsure of, and I like to always have my vote floating somewhere. This is a misrep.

[itlepip]

Why are you doubtcasting my townread then?

[podoboq]

Why are you doubtcasting my townread then?

Because I don't think you have a valid reason to read him as town. I asked you why you townread him, and you provided a series of logic I disagree with.

[The Pied Piper]

What do you mean by the bolded PP? How do you know how the scum team was behaving?

Mirhawk's point was that he expected the scum not to look outside the major wagons and not to shake up the gamestate; I said what I said because I don't think that two town counter wagons would radically change how scum behaved. If they were the type of players to try to get something started outside of the two major wagons, then they probably would. If they weren't, than they wouldn't.
Does this make sense or are we still misunderstanding each other?

If I had to consolidate, it'd be on VOTE: Axel for his posts reeking of effort concealing motivation.

Not the biggest fan of my wagonmates but I'm not too fond of the other wagons.

Still mostly V/LA; will get access again later tonight.

I'd be happier with Skybird than Axel; why don't you like the Cakez wagon?

[podoboq]

Just gonna snip out the highlighted text to respond to. If you want to read the full context, follow the link to the actual post.

Guess what, just because someone doesn't provide reasoning doesn't automatically make something NAI. Looking at what the read is and the timing of it can also give you a read. I understand if you can't read it, but

when someone comes along in a generally townread slot and says, yo, this easily could be town, I'm not sure why town would doubtcast that.

I can't tell what the highlighted text is talking about. I assume you're talking about how you, a generally townread slot, are saying "dram could easily be town." I'm doubtcasting that because you haven't provided any good logic as to

why

you're reading that slot as town, and I read it as scum.

As for dramonic's lack of reasoning, yes, it's alignment indicative, because he claims utter confidence in his read, and refuses to make a case for it. That could easily be, and I'm assuming it is, because he doesn't have a reason to actually think Axel is scum, and only has a reason to

claim

that Axel is scum.

Same thing but worse because its you.

It's still bad play to call a player scum and provide absolutely no reason for your logic. People jumped down Cakez's throat earlier today because he didn't push tictac, a supposed scumread, hard enough at the end of day one. Dramonic hasn't pushed any of his three scum reads at all, despite considering them "obvious." If they're so obvious, he should be able to communicate why.

I happen to be more turned off by his scumread on me because while he could be correct about Axel, I know he's wrong about me. If he's town, I hope my flip will convince him to reevaluate how terrible his reads are.

And it lets me get an inkling of a read on him.

Except what I'm claiming is that his post doesn't give you valid cause to townread him. Saying "I townread him because his posts are useful, and they're useful because they give me a chance to townread him" is circular logic.

Okay, that's just not how the game works. Depending on the size of the game, scum need to achieve a certain amount of mislynches to win, with certain roles such as vig and medic affecting that number. What needs to happen for town is to get a few extra scum flips early so that if we do end up in lylo its at worst a 5p and not the awful 7p which 999/1000 times scum just win. Even if you think Dram is 100% unreadable here, unless you have nobody in the game who you think has greater than a rounabouts 4/20 something chance of being scum Dram shouldn't be killed right now. All you are doing right now is again 16/20 times just lowering the necessary mislynch counter by 1 while providing town with nothing to go off of. You are either super lazy town that doesn't want to try to solve the game or just scum.

Scum needs to achieve a certain number of mislynches to win. If you and Cakez are easy mislynches, he can save you for when scum is getting wagoned, and then counterwagon with you. Town got lynched yesterday, and scum!dram hasn't needed to cash in on what you're considering an easy mislynch, when other mislynches happened without his contribution. If a mislynch is happening anyway, dram has no reason to push you. Also, at this point, I'd consider his three highest scumreads easy mislynches.

I think multiple people in this game have a greater than 20% chance of scum. I think dramonic's the highest chance, and even if he's not, he's close to the top. We should lynch scum here to win, and dramonic gives us a great chance of flipping scum, but on the low odds that he isn't, we can at least take solace in the fact that we removed an easy mislynch early. If dramonic has a 90% chance to flip scum, and Cakez (for example) has a 95% chance to flip scum, I lynch dramonic because his mislynch isn't as catastrophic. Note, those are made up numbers. I'm just trying to make a point.

His reads are solid in that I can verify that they are coming from a town standpoint and this feels like townplay to me. I think that you are fairly likely to be scum here, but even if you are town here the thought process from Dram is still towny. Town never have 100% reads, you can't try to read people based on the accuracy of their reads, but in whether or not the reads came from town or scum.

You can't verify that his reads are coming from a town standpoint because he OUTRIGHT REFUSES to explain how he came to his conclusions. That's so scummy, and the fact that you don't see it, or are ignoring it, is boggling my mind. You say that you can't judge people based on their reads, but the ONLY thing dram is contributing to the game is three, unwavering, 100% confidence reads. I have to read what I can, and that's all he's giving me.

[The Pied Piper]

i don't see how podo could be any townier than he is right now

[The Pied Piper]

it's very unlikely that i'm going to want a dram lynch today, but the way he's pushing it is town town town town town town town

[itlepip]

I think multiple people in this game have a greater than 20% chance of scum. I think dramonic's the highest chance, and even if he's not, he's close to the top. We should lynch scum here to win, and dramonic gives us a great chance of flipping scum, but on the low odds that he isn't, we can at least take solace in the fact that we removed an easy mislynch early. If dramonic has a 90% chance to flip scum, and Cakez (for example) has a 95% chance to flip scum, I lynch dramonic because his mislynch isn't as catastrophic. Note, those are made up numbers. I'm just trying to make a point.

Explain how Dram has such a high chance of being scum given that he is unreadable?

[podoboq]

I think multiple people in this game have a greater than 20% chance of scum. I think dramonic's the highest chance, and even if he's not, he's close to the top. We should lynch scum here to win, and dramonic gives us a great chance of flipping scum, but on the low odds that he isn't, we can at least take solace in the fact that we removed an easy mislynch early. If dramonic has a 90% chance to flip scum, and Cakez (for example) has a 95% chance to flip scum, I lynch dramonic because his mislynch isn't as catastrophic. Note, those are made up numbers. I'm just trying to make a point.

Explain how Dram has such a high chance of being scum given that he is unreadable?

If I have to give dram a number, I'd call it something like 75%. Just for a frame of reference.

I'm getting that partially from his bad reads, because again, that's all he's giving me to judge him on, and partially from your terrible defense of him. I went from having you as one of my highest town reads to one of my highest scum reads it over the last couple of hours. Your defense is nonsense, and it has me convinced that you're either just fervently wrong or you're a scum team. I didn't necessarily want to lynch dramonic with our day when I placed that vote there, but I'm pretty damn happy about it now.

[itlepip]

damn it

VOTE: Axel

[podoboq]

damn it

VOTE: Axel

Care to explain this rather than leaving us to fill in the blanks?

[The Pied Piper]

he came to his senses.

[podoboq]

he came to his senses.

But voting for Axel. That's just a naked vote.

[itlepip]

Amiham: Town
Axel: Decent content but could be scum by GI
Cerb: kinda town :(
Dram: prolly town
Dave: prolly town
FS: reads are so backwards sometimes that I can’t ever townread this, not obv scum though. Liked early readlist but fakeable. Just frustrating slot. BTW if you are an invest and didn't look at FS for shame.
Mirhawk: don’t like his push on Ranger.
Pistach: IC
Podo: don’t like 834 readlist.
Sakura: no idea how to read, will sort with flips.
Cakez: town 9/10, should not be the lynch at all
Snarky, the fact that this slot is still alive confirms no vig, needs to die.
TPP: too lazy to try to read, sorry
TWL: Town
Tic: Scum but is getting a little townier.
Ogre: town, not sure what that invest thing was
Skybird: wouldn’t stop a lynch, null.

Read please.

[The Pied Piper]

What is GI?

[itlepip]

GreyIce

[podoboq]

I also don't know what GI is, and even with it, I'd like more of a reason to scumread a person than "could be scum" before voting for somebody.

p-edit: Looking up GreyIce.

[itlepip]

good luck, you can't use public tells.

[podoboq]

good luck, you can't use public tells.

I'm finding your posts literally hard to read. I don't know what you're saying "good luck" too, and I'm finding that GreyICE is a user. Are you suggesting that Axel is an alt of GreyICE, and if so, how does that knowledge bring you to the conclusion that Axel is scum? I'm just not seeing your train of thought on anything.

[The Pied Piper]

-Ranger info

Lynching Ranger will basically explode open this game in terms of reads so even though I have this sick feeling she's going to flip town lynching her is the right play here.

What I was looking for here was for you to explain this quote, not so much look at Ranger's wagon and analyze it. I'd expect that if you were as town you'd have a specific idea wrt her wagon in mind (the only way she could get lynched as town is if there was a bunch of scum on her wagon) that would explain why you'd have a bunch of reads as a result of a Ranger lynch, but, if scum, I'd expect you felt a little bit awkward about joining the wagon of someone who you town read and so you posted this to justify jumping on it. Was what you meant by that quote simply that you thought Ranger's wagon would be very analyzable? Why?

-Spiffeh

At the beginning of the day today, you said that you were going to sheep Spiffeh's reads. The reason why that felt weird to me is because you said that if Ranger was town, you wanted Spiffeh to be your voteslave (suggesting that you thought your reads were better than Spiffeh's if Ranger was town). Could you talk about that?

The cause of that vote was because of the unvote and not commenting on anything else, which I find pretty bad considering an IC just revealed who was the leading wagon which means you should be reanalyzing and Skybird didn't.

Just because a player isn't reanalyzing in the same post that they unvoted doesn't mean that they aren't going to do any reanalyzing at all.

"Just sorting someone" is an excellent excuse to join a wagon without seriously committing.

"Getting this sorted" was a reference to the Ogre-Pistach interaction which did indeed need to be sorted.

That's straight up backtracking.

Well, yeah, but I'd find it weirder if Skybird didn't backtrack on her vote after Pistach revealed to be an IC... Wouldn't you?

[The Pied Piper]

GreyIce

Axel might be scum by a GI tell is what you're saying here?

[Marquis]

I'd be happier with Skybird than Axel; why don't you like the Cakez wagon?

Unlike SirCakez, Skybird isn't contributing to the game. Cakez at the very least presents a visble thought progression that reads similarly to his play in our Newbie game together.

But unlike dramonic, Skybird keeps asking questions that don't lead into anything. In other words, unlike dramonic, Skybird is playing like she's trying to look helpful and like she's trying to figure things out, while dramonic just doesn't care. Despite endless questions to people with no followup, Skybird is also very limited on reads. And when she does give reads, it's when she's called out for it, and the reasons are either very general or just amount to "looks bad".

Spoiler: last Skybird posts since her pistachion unvote

Announcement: pistachi0n is town-aligned.

UNVOTE: pistachion

Because literally the only thing she did was pop in, unvote and leave. No comment at all on Pist being IC or how shifty that wagon was.

What's there to comment about? Pist is now confirmed town. I voted her because I have True Ogre as town. It turns out through Mod communication that Pist is town. I unvoted. Then RL intervened and I had to go do other stuff.

Dram, I think you are wrong on your Davesaz read. I feel he is town here. He hasn't been very active but he is reading the thread and asking questions.

You've commented on Axel. What about Podo makes you think he's scum?

Welcome Marquis!

Pistach, I get better as the game goes on. :)

What's bothering me is why you feel the need to talk about this at all.

You brought it up as a scum point against me. I'm responding with the truth.

After looking at last night's actions, how has that changed your reads?

Pist, I don't think you answered this yet. Who do you think is scum on the ranger wagon?

Pist, I don't think you answered this yet. Who do you think is scum on the ranger wagon?

Who do you think is scum? When are we going to all realise you're town?

-snip-

I'm having a hard time figuring scum out. I still think FS is scummy, but am concerned that everyone else seems to have shifted away from them. Their posting did change about halfway through D1. FS is smart enough to know that they were being scum read and to shift their comments to seem more town. I also don't think fruit (wig) vendor is AI.

I'm leaning more scum now on tictac. I read through his ISO a few days ago and didn't see much to indicate to me he was scum, but I also didn't see a lot to indicate he was town. That hasn't changed much since I read his ISO and think he could be scum skating by.

I apologize because I'm going to have to finish this up when I get back. Husband just informed me that we have to leave NOW to go look at a boat we are thinking of buying.

Welcome itlepip!

I'm not sure what you mean with post 2648. Do you mean you tried to read him and can't quite figure him out? Or did you try to engage him? lynch him? What exactly did you try to do?

who are your next best guesses for scum?

tictac

@everyone: I've been coming down with a 39ºC fever, hopefully this'll resolve soon, im not stating V/LA because i've already been inactive enough if it lasts enough to last past prod timer then i suggest i am replaced instead of prodded.

I hope you get to feeling better soon! Having a fever sucks.

Pist, I don't think you answered this yet. Who do you think is scum on the ranger wagon?

Who do you think is scum? When are we going to all realise you're town?

-snip-

I'm having a hard time figuring scum out. I still think FS is scummy, but am concerned that everyone else seems to have shifted away from them. Their posting did change about halfway through D1. FS is smart enough to know that they were being scum read and to shift their comments to seem more town. I also don't think fruit (wig) vendor is AI.

I'm leaning more scum now on tictac. I read through his ISO a few days ago and didn't see much to indicate to me he was scum, but I also didn't see a lot to indicate he was town. That hasn't changed much since I read his ISO and think he could be scum skating by.

I apologize because I'm going to have to finish this up when I get back. Husband just informed me that we have to leave NOW to go look at a boat we are thinking of buying.

True Ogre, I wanted to get back to you on this since I didn't get a chance to finish out.

I want to scum read Mirhawk but I am going back and forth on this read. Part of the reason I want to scum read him is because he is scum reading me and I agree that is a really shitty reason to scum read someone. I don't think he's right on Dave being scum. I have Dave as town. Most of the things Mirhawk has pointed out against Dave are him asking meaningless questions and not taking strong stances. But town is going to disagree on who we think are scum so again, this isn't a strong reason for scum reading him. I did like post 879 from Mirhawk. That really reads town to me. I don't agree with calling FS town just because they are a fruit vendor which Mirhawk is basically doing. If I was a mod this would be a great scum role just because most people do read it as a town role. I also didn't like that Mirhawk didn't seem to give any consideration to those of us saying Ranger was town. Anyway, this is basically the argument I am having with myself about whether Mirhawk is town or scum.

After reading the conversation between Cakez and Mirhawk, Mirhawk is moving up on my town list. I feel he has made some good points on Cakez.

-snip-

I still kind of think Seniors is town.

You're probably right. I don't think your wagon analysis piece was going to result in anything productive;

two town counter wagons doesn't really mean much with how the scum team was behaving.

-snip-

Why is this game dead all of a sudden
Spiffeh y did you have to die with your great activity ugh
For the tictac case - just look at his posts on the last page and tell me that's not scum.

While I'll commend Cakez if he's scum here because this post is pretty decently ballsy, this post also feels pretty incredibly fake. As I've said before, I don't mind when people read into dead town's reads and all that good stuff but following them blindly when you didn't really follow the player that closely the day before is pretty fucking iffy, and these sorts of "I'll miss you Spiffeh!" posts never really ring true to me.

What do you mean by the bolded PP? How do you know how the scum team was behaving?

In the second part of the quote, I agree with the "I'll miss you Spiffeh" sentiment ringing false. Put this quote along with the "I tried to save you Ranger" quote from Cakez and he just feels incredibly scummy today.

I'm caught back up now and I think it's time to vote.

VOTE: Sir Cakez

(Note: "I also don't think fruit (wig) vendor is AI." What does that mean? Did nobody question it?)

For example with going to a townread on Mirhawk, her reasons just read like things scum think sound good. As in, after giving basic reasons to both townread and scumread Mirhawk that anyone could have or has already noticed, she finally settles on a weak townread because "I feel he has made some good points on Cakez".

Nacho can you honestly tell me her play doesn't look like scum "scumhunting" based on... how do I put it, what scum objectively think sounds good/reasonable? And based on who seems more agreeable versus more lynchable? Basically her posts and opinions (when she actually provides them when people actually ask for them) just feel so fake, going with the flow of opinion against each player, and just... asasdffaskjhf. HER PLAY IS JUST SO APPARENTLY SCUM TO ME SINCE DAY 1 AND I FEEL LIKE I'M STARING DOWN SOME SORT OF ROBOT ALIEN HYBRID THAT NOBODY ELSE SEES.

I'm having an extremely hard time buying that her posts this game, including the most recent ones, serve more of a purpose than scum coasting and trying to at least do more than the laziest town, which may or may not be me/dramonic.

ALSO IN CAPS, WHY DO WE KEEP DOING THIS THING WHERE MULTIPLE PEOPLE AGREE SHE'S SCUM, SHE DISAPPEARS OR SOMETHING, AND THEN WE VOTE OTHER PEOPLE FOR ACTIVELY LOOKING BAD AND NOT CARING INSTEAD OF INACTIVELY LOOKING BAD BUT TRYING TO LOOK GOOD.

I just. am so frustrated by all of this. like maybe my all caps-ing looks kind of unnecessary to everyone else but I don't get how we always have this pattern of multiple likely-town players agreeing on a scumread on a player but then shiny things happen and wooo! town wagons instead and blahhhh

[Rob14]

Vote Count #2.9:

SirCakez:

Mirhawk, pistachi0n, tictac, The Pied Piper, Skybird (5)

Axelrod:

dramonic, Sakura Hana, Marquis, itlepip (4)

The Pied Piper:

Friendless Seniors, True Ogre (2)

dramonic:

davesaz, podoboq (2)

tictac:

SirCakez (1)

Not Voting:

Axelrod, Cerberus v666, THE WRONG LYNCH

With 17 players alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

V/LA:

Marquis until 4/17.

Deadline:

(expired on 2016-04-22 21:00:00)

[Marquis]

Well, yeah, but I'd find it weirder if Skybird didn't backtrack on her vote after Pistach revealed to be an IC... Wouldn't you?

The point is she's quick to be here and vote and unvote based on someone else's guilty, but extremely slow to provide her own reads (or doesn't at all unless asked!), and posts sporadically just asking people questions that she never seems to actually care about at all.