A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[Marquis]

Marquis, I'm town.

You don't want all those cleared town alive tomorrow. I can actually do good this game.

Don't let me die when you're likely to tonight.

Lets lynch cerb or someone like that, and I'll settle down on the TPP thing until we're absolutely sure I'm right.

I'm letting you know I've seen this post, and that I'm still voting you. sorry! night for now

[Friendless Seniors]

Ugh.

If I am town, to your town perspective, lynching me today and dying leaves this town COMPLETELY DIRECTIONLESS.

VOTE: cerb

Fuck it. He has done nothing, and is completely and entirely coasting. TPP is probably scum but unlikely to get lynched. I'll deal with that in the future.

[Friendless Seniors]

or axel? fuck I don't know

[Dwlee99]

ooh ooh skybird said tpp / the pied pipers once not including quotrs and they called them town let's lynch tpp

[hiplop]

You know I'm with you there unfortunately this town is worshipping nachos pretty face soooo :/

[Marquis]

i honestly wouldn't be too mad if he was vigged depending on your flip

[Dwlee99]

Guys I am secretly an rc alt. I have had a cop guilty on tpp and I am claiming it so you guys can actually lynch them

[Cerberus v666]

Marquis: the burden burden of proficiency mark lies somewhere far above where I'm at right now. You, and everyone else who knows me, should DEFINITELY expect more.

FS: I mean, I could say there's no way I'd be this disengaged as scum(I'd probably pick the weaker of the sides in the you vs TPP discussion, and be spamming the fuck out of the thread to disengage the game with my ability to bloat a thread) but unfortunately my only other scum game on-site I was playing alongside another anti-town role in a large game, so I only focused on one of them properly. *shrug*

Oh, also, Marquis! I show up and call people bad because I don't have any other insights to offer unfortunately, other than the part where I said we should probably lynch outside of the probtown/fs/TPP pool, amd then asked who the loudest voices supporting the tpp/fs lynches were, in the opinion of those paying more attention.

The obvious intention there is that I find this to be tvt, and those egging it on as more likely to be scum. So yeah. I'm just too lazy to look at the VCs and chat today and see who the options are.

Pedit: dwlee ilu for that last post. [L

[Malakittens]

VOTE: Dwlee

Tbh illvote FSjust to make them shut up

[Mirhawk]

Seriously though, noticing the discrepancy that isn't actually there because you aren't considering enough options is, indeed, myopic.

Again you're putting the burden of proof on Dwlee here in

retrospect

, when the issue was not nearly this cut and dried before Nacho cleared it up. You're no more able to prove that you would have noticed it then Dwlee is able to prove that he didn't notice it, which makes your whole argument sleazy.

This whole thing also doesn't matter much, as the only important thing worth considering from Dwlee's side is weather or not HE believed it.

On the basis of TPPs posts since dwlee has joined the game, Mirhawk, do you honestly believe it is reasonable to assume thale individual making those posts would make such a sloppy mistake? To what benefit? They weren't even being pressured, and that stuff wasn't related to their FS read at all.

I'm not sure what sloppy mistake you're referring to here so I'm going to assume it has to do with the implication that there were more PR's on the line then there actually were.
Why wouldn't they? It was an ugly play from the towns side too. Assuming they would only do this as town but not scum is stupid. It's apparently okay and believable if they're dumb as town, but not if they're dumb as scum.

Also people volunteering unsolicited information in a mafia game when under no pressure is ALWAYS suspicious. What you should really be asking is why did they do it. Not that this information was completely unsolicited, it was put out in support of their read on Tictac.

I found your post hard to read. I wasn't really sure what you were talking about in a lot of it so I made some assumptions. I'm not even completely sure we're talking about the same things.

[Mirhawk]

Occam's Razor: Nacho and Plot are good at picking up on crumbs, and Nacho and Plot are not sloppy scum players

But they are sloppy town players apparently?

It drives me nuts when I see people getting handwaves due to shit like this.

[Mirhawk]

If Marquis is a cop then he checked the right people.

Low activity people who scum probably won't leverage a NK against are good targets.

[Cerberus v666]

Mirhawk: I wasn't here, so yes, obviously I can't prove that Dwlee's thought process was terrible without the benefit of hindsight.

The fact that I can't prove that it was terrible, doesn't mean it wasn't. It was what it was, regardless of what I am capable of proving. And yes, you are correct, the only important thing is whether or not he sincerely believed it, which is why I backed off in the post you're talking about, and noted that it may have simply been bad town play, rather than scum.

The sloppy play on the part of TPP as scum would have been the reveal of a bunch of information for no benefit. Information which was unlikely to have been gained by a single slot through usage of that slots powers, and which was therefore NOT easily explained away. The only aspect of in the information they shared which was relevant to their tictac read was his neighborizing, which is clearly not something which should have been revealed given the lack of pressure on both them and tictac at that point. This is, again, speaking as if they were scum. The softed innocent/oversell of their read on tictac, due to his role? That was clearly a setup for a future date where they could pass on an innocent/guilty gained via tictacs investigative power without outing him.

See, that's the thing. In that whole sequence, I see town motive for at least the soft on tictac, if not for the PR knowledge claim, but I don't see scum motive for any of it, and it's all really quite sloppy as scum play.

[True Ogre]

@Cerb

This happened while you were away, Mr This Game's At The Top Of My Priority List.

Refresh me on why you're townreading Seniors please. Do you know how to read them better than Marquis or Poper?

I find it doubtful that on this occasion I'll be more likely to talk you down than seniors,but normally I'd say yes to this question. If this is town tunneling one another, it means today, like every other day, is going to be all about the FS slot. We've generated a ridiculous amount of noise about them, which makes it especially difficult to figure out other slots (without seeing their flip), while simultaneously making it effortless for those who want to coast to simply do so.

Well you're calling it noise and I'm calling it faith in the slot.

I don't really see Piper getting away with a "soft-claiming to form a big wagon and push through a mislynch based on momentum and then retracting the soft-claim but still pushing the wagon through somehow because it's already big based on the soft-claim they retracted" (or whatever it is, as Dwlee and Seniors seem to be bafflingly explaining). One of the heads posted that we were going to hear about the "Old School" thing in a few days (although I don't think that eventuated) -- but do you really think that kind of push is going to go through and become a mislynch on a wing and a prayer and there aren't consequences for them tomorrow (or even today), just a glib explanation? I don't think they had reason to take that risk after Skybird flipped scum. Nor do I think it would *work*.

Which is why I'm finding it really strange that this focus on soft-claiming or claiming unspecified, being scummy, is credible to anyone.
However it is to {Seniors, Dwlee, dramonic} (the latter presumably)

And you {Cerberus} think Seniors are almost certainly town and you're citing this exchange:
(Seriously - this is the entire evolution for you)

nope, I'm not pushing your wagon. I'd prefer that we lynch mirhawk. ^^ I will admit to some bias in knowing that if you end up not getting lynched, we're just going to default to ranger, and I'm 95% certain Ranger is town, whereas I'm absolutely uncertain about you.

like, imagine if we had claimed cop.

and cerb was giving you guys this answer.

you'd lynch him in a minute.

pedit: you're scum cerb. Give it a break. You're doing a really shitty version of a distance from our wagon

If you had claimed cop I would tell the town it's really stupid to lynch a claimed cop on D1, and we should lynch you in Lylo if you were still alive then. :)

(btw, you all realize this interaction FS is having with me is SUPER FUCKING TOWN RIGHT? I'm not being sarcastic. I don't know why scum him would do this, because there's literally no chance of a wagon being shifted over to me, of all people, at this stage in the day)

--snipped--

Now I realise this is mainly your end of the conversation but these posts are sequential in your ISO and in the first post you're claiming that you're absolutely uncertain about Seniors, then two posts later you're saying they're Super Fucking Town.

That doesn't make sense at all. You don't pick one single point in time or one single exchange to go from uncertain to Super-town and then spend the rest of the game coasting on that read.

And I don't believe that non-survivalism is alignment indicative to your mind when you told Skybird this:

Survivalist is NAI, Skybird, unless the person you're pushing as an alternative is someone who you had previously considered town.

So you somehow think that Seniors is town because they decided *not* to take the survivalist route, and instead tried to drum up a bull wagon on you which had no chance of eventuating?
Why is that town if survivalism isn't alignment indicative to you?
I think it's a perfectly possible tactic from scum. Especially if there's a good chance they'll be lynched and the attack is on their buddy. Quite the wifommy legacy to leave.

[True Ogre]

Good ole Poper

[True Ogre]

Ugh.

If I am town, to your town perspective, lynching me today and dying leaves this town COMPLETELY DIRECTIONLESS.

VOTE: cerb

Fuck it. He has done nothing, and is completely and entirely coasting. TPP is probably scum but unlikely to get lynched. I'll deal with that in the future.

This tack kinda worked pretty well Day 1 when you were under pressure.
Nothing like successes of the past to inform future actions.

Funnily enough I'm not even in disagreement with you regarding Cerb atm.

As far as directionless though, that's just fearmongering pure and simple.

[Cerberus v666]

@Cerb

This happened while you were away, Mr This Game's At The Top Of My Priority List.

Refresh me on why you're townreading Seniors please. Do you know how to read them better than Marquis or Poper?

I find it doubtful that on this occasion I'll be more likely to talk you down than seniors,but normally I'd say yes to this question. If this is town tunneling one another, it means today, like every other day, is going to be all about the FS slot. We've generated a ridiculous amount of noise about them, which makes it especially difficult to figure out other slots (without seeing their flip), while simultaneously making it effortless for those who want to coast to simply do so.

Well you're calling it noise and I'm calling it faith in the slot.

I don't really see Piper getting away with a "soft-claiming to form a big wagon and push through a mislynch based on momentum and then retracting the soft-claim but still pushing the wagon through somehow because it's already big based on the soft-claim they retracted" (or whatever it is, as Dwlee and Seniors seem to be bafflingly explaining). One of the heads posted that we were going to hear about the "Old School" thing in a few days (although I don't think that eventuated) -- but do you really think that kind of push is going to go through and become a mislynch on a wing and a prayer and there aren't consequences for them tomorrow (or even today), just a glib explanation? I don't think they had reason to take that risk after Skybird flipped scum. Nor do I think it would *work*.

Which is why I'm finding it really strange that this focus on soft-claiming or claiming unspecified, being scummy, is credible to anyone.
However it is to {Seniors, Dwlee, dramonic} (the latter presumably)

And you {Cerberus} think Seniors are almost certainly town and you're citing this exchange:
(Seriously - this is the entire evolution for you)

nope, I'm not pushing your wagon. I'd prefer that we lynch mirhawk. ^^ I will admit to some bias in knowing that if you end up not getting lynched, we're just going to default to ranger, and I'm 95% certain Ranger is town, whereas I'm absolutely uncertain about you.

like, imagine if we had claimed cop.

and cerb was giving you guys this answer.

you'd lynch him in a minute.

pedit: you're scum cerb. Give it a break. You're doing a really shitty version of a distance from our wagon

If you had claimed cop I would tell the town it's really stupid to lynch a claimed cop on D1, and we should lynch you in Lylo if you were still alive then.

(btw, you all realize this interaction FS is having with me is SUPER FUCKING TOWN RIGHT? I'm not being sarcastic. I don't know why scum him would do this, because there's literally no chance of a wagon being shifted over to me, of all people, at this stage in the day)

--snipped--

Now I realise this is mainly your end of the conversation but these posts are sequential in your ISO and in the first post you're claiming that you're absolutely uncertain about Seniors, then two posts later you're saying they're Super Fucking Town.

That doesn't make sense at all. You don't pick one single point in time or one single exchange to go from uncertain to Super-town and then spend the rest of the game coasting on that read.

And I don't believe that non-survivalism is alignment indicative to your mind when you told Skybird this:

Survivalist is NAI, Skybird, unless the person you're pushing as an alternative is someone who you had previously considered town.

So you somehow think that Seniors is town because they decided *not* to take the survivalist route, and instead tried to drum up a bull wagon on you which had no chance of eventuating?
Why is that town if survivalism isn't alignment indicative to you?
I think it's a perfectly possible tactic from scum. Especially if there's a good chance they'll be lynched and the attack is on their buddy. Quite the wifommy legacy to leave.

Yeah, it was at the top of my priority list for mafia, but international tabletop day was yesterday and I spent 24 hours playing board games, plus an additional 14 hours or something sleeping+playing old dead ccg's with a friend. Top of my priority list isn't what it used to be.

Anyways, the issue wasn't that it wasn't a survivalistic move. It was the fact that it had no chance of actually accomplishing anything. There was no point to it for scum. Do you see a reason why scum!FS makes posts along those lines? I really don't, it doesn't seem to accomplish anything at all. Actually, never mind. If FS and I were scum together, then yes, that set of posts DOES have scum motivation. It essentially makes it so I can point to that post/set of posts when he flips, and use it as a defense. So okay, if you're positing a FS/Cerb team(which isn't unrealistic, given the interactions between us), I can understand seeing scum motivation there. If you're not positing such a team, then it makes no fucking sense as scum. And though I hate to be one to state the obvious/something I would have to say as scum, I know I'm town, therefore I see no scum motivation.

I have no idea if I know how to read them better than Marquis or Piper. I've only ever seen hiplop as scum at any length, and I've only ever seen EP as town, and generally I don't read people by "knowing them" so much as by tracing their play for inconsistencies and flaws or contradictions in their narratives, and by clearing people as town due to actions or lines they may take for which I can find no scum motivation. So yeah. Town clears due to things like the exchange I had with FS, which I found to have no scum motivation, and scum catches due to shifting narratives and inconsistencies in, well, anything.

What all that means, though, is that I'm REALLY bad at finding anything if I haven't actually been paying attention to the game.

[True Ogre]

Nope. You're wrong.

If FS launches an attack on you which is OBVIOUSLY not going to do anything, it's not even an attack on you. It's a distraction. It's a statement.

Now was the statement "I think I've caught scum"? No.
I might have to go back and look at this to confirm it but I don't recall FS pushing his strong scumread Cerb on the day we ended up lynching Skybird.

The statement was "LOOK GUYS I'M SO PRO-TOWN I DON'T EVEN CARE THAT THIS WAGON WILL GO NOWHERE"
"LOOK AT ME SCUMHUNTING NOT SAVING MY OWN SKIN"
And that's something that you should be able to figure out and it's not dependent on your alignment at all.

Instead there's this one lonely exchange that you're now relying on to call FS town.
And I'll tell you what - my own reads are not so solid as that - and I *know* I'm town.

[itlepip]

Yeah I agree with TO here, Cerb FS should probably die today.

[Dwlee99]

if fs is lynched I swear

[Cerberus v666]

I don't actually view his(rather limited) attack on me as scumhunting, and I can't imagine why anyone else would either. I agree that it could have been a move made expressly because it does nothing, given his(if I recall correctly) lack or attention on me on D2, but that is still far from enough cause to lynch their slot.

Anyways, an incredibly strong townread may not be justified, but neither is a lynch.

I mean, simply put, the majority of what's been used as reasons to believe FS is scum, is crap. None of the cases presented have resonated with me at all. They havent been terrible crap, so bad that I still remember what I hated about them or felt the need to point out flaws, but they all seemed to lack solid foundation of actual scummy behavior.

[podoboq]

Apparently dwlee wagon isn't happening. Cerb, I thought you wanted to do that.

VOTE: FS

[Cerberus v666]

I wanted itlepip to vote too, and then I'd vote as well, and we'd have a wagon to rival TPPs, instead of a couple vanity votes.

[Dwlee99]

Mirhawk: I wasn't here, so yes, obviously I can't prove that Dwlee's thought process was terrible without the benefit of hindsight.

The fact that I can't prove that it was terrible, doesn't mean it wasn't. It was what it was, regardless of what I am capable of proving. And yes, you are correct, the only important thing is whether or not he sincerely believed it, which is why I backed off in the post you're talking about, and noted that it may have simply been bad town play, rather than scum.

snip

I wanted itlepip to vote too, and then I'd vote as well, and we'd have a wagon to rival TPPs, instead of a couple vanity votes.

??

[pistachi0n]

Occam's Razor: TPP is scum
Other possibility: TPP fakeclaimed an inno on someone (which he admitted to) in order to stop the vigilante from killing a town read of his that he is super confident in because of a neighborizor tictac had that he used on tpp where, also they had info on prs because they are good at picking up info on prs

At this point, I...think that if anyone had certain information that TPP's claims were false, they would have called BS and voted TPP already.