New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[EspeciallyTheLies]

DRAMONIC.

[copper223]

Um wasn’t the Firebringer who was the Neighborizor in that game scum?

Yes, there was also another game http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=65000 from TTH going on that finished before the large (and it came up in Gumball, likely while Kagami and Spiffeh were arguing cause they were both in the other game as well) but cakez wasn't playing that one. Still goes to show that setup speccing, especially early on, makes some sense only if you're already suspicious beforehand based on play.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

copper what do you think about your neighbors?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Pretty sure Ircher is Town at this stage. Note how easily other wagons (Cy, Brawl I’m specificially looking at) just fade away regardless of any actual thread involvement from them. But Ircher’s wagon is still going strong. I’d be even more confident if he bothered to show up and answer my question.

^ this applies to TBG in a big way right now, mAGNA. why do you not feel the same in this case?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You don’t have enough data to determine that Titus was coaching Ircher either but that didn’t stop you from long-jumping to that conclusion earlier

This is not true. I did have enough data, in that the conversation was in the damn thread. But to ask me if I thought Titus was bussing TBG, and I said - I don't have enough data - there've been no flips or nothing, and I didn't see any connection between them in the conversations/posts, so why the hell would this apply to my conclusion about Titus/Ircher in any way!!? It didn't and it doesn't. Apples and oranges, man. The Titus/Ircher thing was in plain sight, in words, with very clear meaning. My impression was that it looked like coaching. YOu can't make the same conclusions about TBG/Titus at all, they don't have the same interactions, and I didn't, and still don't think TBG is scum really. I was kidna waffly about him but I honestly don't get the case on him (I didn't see a single one really, but I'm not done re-reading). Also my scumreads are mostly independent of each other on D1 unless there's an obvious link like the one I felt I saw between Titus/Ircher. I try not to make associations before a scum flip because that has only ever led me to disaster in the past.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

magna come back i am wanting interaction with you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@magna - If there's multiple teams, then perhaps the idea of more than 1 anti-town member of the hood is possible but I think that's more of an outside theory at this point, since we don't have any indication one way or the other, but even that scenario means there is at least one anti-town in the hood. considering the existence of at least one is reasonable at the moment and something we can work on deducing.

Agreed but I absolutely do not want a single scum flip from the Neighborhood to make people go “Whelp, X confirmed Town now” where X is the number of other living players from the neighborhood. That’s the kind of lazy thinking and assumption that loses games for Town.

And honestly, rereading your ISO kind of makes me mad about the whole "Titus coaching Ircher" thing because first of all, it absolutely read as coaching, and absolutely coaching happens in games where scum do not have daytalk. My thinking on it went like this: "Why is she telling him what to do? Do they have some kind of outside connection? If they are scum together, it could be coaching, which means scum probably don't have daytalk." I voiced my opinions, mentioned that it depended on the existence or lack of daytalk, and also that it changed my read on Ircher if Titus was scum. So I voted Titus and people went all "BLEEEEH WHY YOU VOTE TITUS AND NOT IRCHER" which still makes no fucking sense to me since ircher's alignment in that scenario depended on Titus being scum which would give credence to the coaching issue in the first place. I do not understand why anyone had such a hard time following that line of thinking. Whether a person agrees or not is one thing but to be all "that means you're scum because I disagree with your conclusions" that's so dumb to me.

Well I can try help you with your feelings. My opinion of the interaction comes from a completely different point of view. I’m Town reading Ircher and soft Town reading Titus at that stage. I see you posting that Titus is coaching Ircher which requires several leaps that were not knowable at that stage – specifically whether scum has Daytalk or not and a lack of an Ircher scum read. In fact you had him as Newbtown at 324. To my mind you were making non-supportable assumptions and trying to scum-read players for reasons that didn’t make sense to me - especially Ircher.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Agreed but I absolutely do not want a single scum flip from the Neighborhood to make people go “Whelp, X confirmed Town now” where X is the number of other living players from the neighborhood. That’s the kind of lazy thinking and assumption that loses games for Town.

I agree that would be a dumb thing to do. Buuuuuuuut.... once we know whether or not it's multiball, better assumptions can be made about the neighborhood, do you agree? In general yes I would say if we get a scumflip out of there, the remaining members aren't necessarily "cleared".

Well I can try help you with your feelings. My opinion of the interaction comes from a completely different point of view. I’m Town reading Ircher and soft Town reading Titus at that stage. I see you posting that Titus is coaching Ircher which requires several leaps that were not knowable at that stage – specifically whether scum has Daytalk or not and a lack of an Ircher scum read. In fact you had him as Newbtown at 324. To my mind you were making non-supportable assumptions and trying to scum-read players for reasons that didn’t make sense to me - especially Ircher.

Yes I know but it made sense to me and I tried to explain my thought process to you. Do you understand it better now or do you still think it's nonsense?

[MagnaofIllusion]

This is not true. I did have enough data, in that the conversation was in the damn thread. But to ask me if I thought Titus was bussing TBG, and I said - I don't have enough data - there've been no flips or nothing, and I didn't see any connection between them in the conversations/posts, so why the hell would this apply to my conclusion about Titus/Ircher in any way!!? It didn't and it doesn't. Apples and oranges, man. The Titus/Ircher thing was in plain sight, in words, with very clear meaning. My impression was that it looked like coaching. YOu can't make the same conclusions about TBG/Titus at all, they don't have the same interactions, and I didn't, and still don't think TBG is scum really. I was kidna waffly about him but I honestly don't get the case on him (I didn't see a single one really, but I'm not done re-reading). Also my scumreads are mostly independent of each other on D1 unless there's an obvious link like the one I felt I saw between Titus/Ircher. I try not to make associations before a scum flip because that has only ever led me to disaster in the past.

That conversation isn't evidence as far as I am concerned. You may be passionate about it but that passion isn't hitting my gut ... I just don't see it such. Again we have a different base of experiences - I can't recall ever seeing coaching as you are preaching it to me in any game I can ever recall. Yes ... I understand where you are coming from.

I'm going to have to look at wagon movements regarding TBG. He's such an entrenched scum-read in my mind I don't see his wagon as similar to the Ircher wagon. But I also have to admit I may be confirm-baised on that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I agree that would be a dumb thing to do. Buuuuuuuut.... once we know whether or not it's multiball, better assumptions can be made about the neighborhood, do you agree?

Yes, I agree. I get paranoid about clearing players not on play but on Outguess the Mod assumptions.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

If you are Town you should care if you are Town read. That’s how you prevent being mislynched and help to narrow down the pool of people who are scum.

I disagree, mostly because I find that I care less about how people read me when I'm town than when I'm scum, because as town, I'm more focused on figuring out what's going on and as scum I'm more focused on manipulating the game. I think I get more upset whgen scumread as town, but in terms of actually

caring

, much less as town.

I mean, obviously I understand that being able to find town reads and work WITH them is far more viable a strategy, but being townread really isn't the main focus and shouldn't be the main focus of town. if you're doing the right things and your teammates are competent, then it should work itself out. town have to keep doing what they need to do and hope their team recognizes it. the problem happens when competence is severely missing.

in that department, i think this is a pretty good playerlist despite one or two but on the whole there seems to be a lot of good obsrvations imo.

p-edit: thanks magna. for coaching - mostly in newbies without daytalk. especially in newbies. the one that comes to mind right away is a newbie i played maybe last year sometime and i was scum with zzzx who was being really... really... dense and not following my lead and the coaching had to be more and more blatant. thor saw it, but couldn't push it through. i've caught scum that way as well. the reason my only recollection is from newbies is because those are the only games i ever played in the last 2 years that didn't have day talk for scum. it's a favorite of mine so i often seek out mods who include it generically (like antihero or AP)

[MagnaofIllusion]

I disagree, mostly because I find that I care less about how people read me when I'm town than when I'm scum, because as town, I'm more focused on figuring out what's going on and as scum I'm more focused on manipulating the game. I think I get more upset whgen scumread as town, but in terms of actually caring, much less as town.

I mean, obviously I understand that being able to find town reads and work WITH them is far more viable a strategy, but being townread really isn't the main focus and shouldn't be the main focus of town. if you're doing the right things and your teammates are competent, then it should work itself out. town have to keep doing what they need to do and hope their team recognizes it. the problem happens when competence is severely missing.

I have things to say on this issue but they will have to wait .... for a time somewhere in the future.

[Lowell]

Jesus could this day end.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Jesus could this day end.

Where do your reads stand now that you've mostly caught up? Strongest scumreads/strongest townreads?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I’m curious to see because you preemptively gave him an out to say no-one in the question as you phrased it.

Also – did it shake him as you expected it too? If so point to the post / posts that show that please.

If his personality was of the type that instinctively defends his teammates and he quickly replied nobody, that would have been a nice little scum slip (how is seth_town supposed to know there are none?), so I was happy to give him that out (quickly answering nobody not only would have confirmed him as scum, it would have strongly indicated there was at least one there).

It did not appear to faze in him at all.

yah ok copper can be town.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

VOTE: SirCakez
An adventure is all games and fun until the party leader stops it mid-way, hands us a rope, and literally asks us to hang each other.

I can't make my play based on what I honestly think, especially in a large game, you can say that "A" must be hanged because of "B" but the majority factor that influences the Day 1 lynching is luck, scumreads may not work all the time as everyone has different playstyles and personalities which makes it impossible to be always right with a scumread, the only thing we can do right now is to maximize that chances of flipping scum, I'm not confident yet in my reads to do that, it's all up to you my fellow town on this day and I will post my thoughts sometimes.

Is this the response to copper's query? I really don't see anything that addressed it directly at all, so I don't really think that there WAS any response to gauge the way copper wanted to. Unless I'm missing it in the context?

[zakk]

copper/liger - one of these is scum

@copper:

but if pers is town is town then I feel even more confident in ETL scum

This is why I'm cool with a lynch. I think there are clear associatives to be drawn.

Wait. So you are saying you are Town and cool with being lynched for associatives. And relaying this to Copper who has (I don’t recall a read from you on his slot recently) a 50/50 shot at being scum?

yeah this isn't town persivul.

THIS is town persivul.
THIS is town persivul.

what manga just illuminated is scum persivul.

vote: Persivul

[drmyshottyizsik]

So why is pers scum there? Because he hadn't stated a read on someone in a few pages? We are assuming a lot here

[Persivul]

@zakk: OMG, you're going to one of my newbie games from a year ago and saying that's my definitive town meta.

Are you scum, or just a fucking idiot?

[drmyshottyizsik]

@zakk: OMG, you're going to one of my newbie games from a year ago and saying that's my definitive town meta.

Are you scum, or just a fucking idiot?

We've been over this he is scum

[Persivul]

Yeah, in my last game with him (in which I actually was scum) he was one of the better townies - when he was active, which was sporadic. He was way better than this.

[drmyshottyizsik]

Btw my egg vote was purely to test reactions and opportunism
VOTE: Zack

[zakk]

i use the info i've got on people. i've always thought of you as a strong town player ever since.

and i watched you play a HELLA WEAK town game in Evo mafia... oh wait, you were scum.

your game looks the same here... you seemed town, but you're not being logical from a town POV, it only makes sense if you're trying to FAKE a town POV.


ALSO: if you were town you probably wouldn't have bothered to check the links
because hypothetical town-you would know that no matter what the links held, they wouldn't be relevant if it was related to me thinking you are scum.

sooo that's points against you too.

and you being like "are you scum or a fucking idiot" is also pretty laughable because i'm clearly neither.

[zakk]

Yeah, in my last game with him (in which I actually was scum) he was one of the better townies - when he was active, which was sporadic. He was way better than this.

i was way better than this + we got rolled, without even a scum lynch ever. my most embarrassing game on site.

i certainly don't think that's "way better than this" by any stretch of the imagination.

[zakk]

Btw my egg vote was purely to test reactions and opportunism
VOTE: Zack

sure it was. what did you learn from that?

i'm all for a good reaction test. hence the ircher/cy wagons.

Spoiler:

and its either zach or zakk pls, don't associate me with this bullshit