Open 642 - The Woodshed - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

{Ranger, Smith, M&M} this wins us the game

What's the source of your wolf read on both me and M&M?

[mhsmith0]

Also, does this mean you have intent on Ranger? Want an official "just in case you changed your mind on that tree claim" role claim first? (you should).

[innocentvillager]

Okay, if Ranger flips town there is almost NO way both scum are off that wagon. Ranger is the easy lynch right now in a state of apathy, regardless of what alignment she is.

[mhsmith0]

Okay, if Ranger flips town there is almost NO way both scum are off that wagon. Ranger is the easy lynch right now in a state of apathy, regardless of what alignment she is.

I'd be fairly surprised if she were to flip town. Call it like 60% wolf odds. And I really don't see a better case right now.

[Touka]

I'd lynch smith or M&M over Ranger in a heartbeat.

[mhsmith0]

I'd lynch smith or M&M over Ranger in a heartbeat.

Providing reasons is the cool thing to do. Don't you want to be cool?

[mhsmith0]

PS Compare and contrast what you're seeing from me this game to what you say from me as wolf. I won't belabor my garbage showing in the billionaire game, but even the newbie game we played together, do you really think that I look similar to that? If so, how?

[Ranger]

I'll let Ranger speak to her actions

Okay.
Bluntly.
I think you're scum because I don't think a town-you is this off-base about a case on a player. Which in this case happens to be me. You're writing a narrative that when examined falls apart, which is in contrast to the mhsmith I know as town that will look at problems from multiple angles. In short, you're construing a specific scenario that uses contrived jumps, whereas a town you is asking a bunch of questions, is prodding a bunch of people, is looking at many perspectives, and tries to come up with all solutions and figure out which ones are the most likely.

But to give the specifics of what I was talking about...

Literally she was voting IV based on explicitly falsely stated reasons (the "100% sure" bit). So basically, rather than make any true effort to lynch her "greater" read (M&M) on day one, or try and force a "lynch that slot or lynch me" debate, she "settled" for IV, while explicitly maintaining at the time that IV was the greater read.

This bit in particular. I explained my read there already, yet he's acting like I haven't. I was scumreading innocentvillager for 110. This scumread became strong, to the point where I thought regardless of whether Music and Mail was scum or not, innocentvillager would be scum, and therefore, the better lynch. Thus, my statement of 100% was, at the time, not a lie. However, later in the day, innocentvillager's posting improved. I didn't want to admit it. I didn't want to back down, because I knew it was me second-guessing myself, and as much as I'd hate to mislynch a player, I hate scumreading a player and then backing down from it even more. In short: pride mixed with stubbornness meant I refused to back down, even though my read had weakened.

Then, we actually got the lynch. innocentvillager claimed scum. I still wasn't absolutely sure that innocentvillager wasn't simply trolling. But ultimately, thanks largely to the comment directed to partner, referencing a specific post in a PT, I thought innocentvillager was, truthfully, claiming scum. So, relieved, I admitted the truth, above, which I posted in 217: I was lying, because innocentvillager's later posting made me doubt the read, yet I was still pretending it was absolute. So when innocentvillager told me he was scum, it was a relief; I thought, "I was actually right!", and all was good.

Until innocentvillager actually flipped town.

Which is a segue into the next part:

Ranger was afraid of getting lynched D2, and yet she's currently voting herself.

This is ignoring the reasons why. It's not just 471. There's doubt in my reads. See also my iso for D2: my reads have been getting

less and less

sure, rather than more and more. There's lots of scumreads on me. I said as much in 288. I also said as much in 280. The offer was made in 261, and is of course based on 147.

That's plenty reason to self-vote. Especially since I won't actually die.

VOTE: mhsmith0.

[Ranger]

No townie WANTS to get lynched.

This is true.
It is also not relevant.

[Ranger]

I'd lynch smith or M&M over Ranger in a heartbeat.

You know I like your reads.
But the way you're playing is keeping you from being a townread.

PS Compare and contrast what you're seeing from me this game to what you say from me as wolf. I won't belabor my garbage showing in the billionaire game, but even the newbie game we played together, do you really think that I look similar to that?

Frankly. To be blunt.
I died in our newbie game N1.
I didn't get to see much of your play there. I'll probably be reading your play that game as part of my duties as an IC (so, tomorrow), meaning you'll get the superficial analysis you're asking for then.

But what I have seen, and can say right now, is your play as town.
And this?

This isn't it.
At all.

This is not a town mhsmith.

[Ranger]

{shotty, Alpaca}
{BTD6}
{Kappy, Touka}
{Music and Mail}
{mhsmith0}
Alpaca at this point is purely gut. shotty's more for his D1 antics. BTD6 is leaning town for much the same, with a side of gut. Kappy's also similar. Touka would be higher if I was seeing the play I was actually expecting from beeboy. I'm seeing elements, and I like his reads, but I'm not at the point where I'd risk the game on him being town.
Music and Mail is basically a scumread purely on "when in doubt, trust your earlier reads" philosophy, and they were a strong early scumread so I literally have no better ideas.
mhsmith, as mentioned, is playing a...very much not-town game. This couldn't be further from his town self. This is best exemplified by this game, which is what I'd have expected from him as a town replacement, yet did not see here.

[mhsmith0]

1) "That's plenty reason to self-vote. Especially since I won't actually die." except... you do. You die if you get lynched. That's the point. If you're town, and you get lynched, you waste a town mislynch (which town can ill afford). AND THAT IS THE POINT.

No townie WANTS to get lynched

is EXACTLY the point. If you're town, eating a lynch just because you're not feeling confident in your reads or so the town can "move on" or whatever is TERRIBLE play. If you're town, the whole thing is selfish and anti-town. OTOH, if you're mafia, self-voting to confuse townies and generate an artificial town read is NOT terrible play.

The ploy you're running was either nakedly town bad play, or some weird town gambit to try and draw in crap votes, or it was a wolf gambit to create a false town read on yourself. I consider it FAR likelier that it was the last of those.

2)

I think you're scum because I don't think a town-you is this off-base about a case on a player. Which in this case happens to be me.

that's basically OMGUS logic, dressed up a bit.

3)

the mhsmith I know as town that will look at problems from multiple angles. In short, you're construing a specific scenario that uses contrived jumps, whereas a town you is asking a bunch of questions, is prodding a bunch of people, is looking at many perspectives, and tries to come up with all solutions and figure out which ones are the most likely.

Sure. And right now the most likely answer is that you're mafia pulling a ploy. Like, you have to see how this is a very plausible read of your actions in this game so far. Also, remember that I DID look at it from mulitple angles. They just all pointed to you being likely mafia.

4) wrt IV, the ESSENTIAL problem is that you yourself stated that you had a stronger read on M&M. So why not try and build the wagon there? It's a weird process to NOT try and wagon your strongest read. And "I hate scumreading a player and then backing down from it even more" is not a town thought process (though admittedly I'm not super familiar w your specific meta, so this is general, not ranger-specific). Town is looking for the best lynch, either to find the best lynch or to drive the best lynch. Wolves are looking to make themselves look good, or to blend in, etc. There is simply no good reason NOT to back down on a "weakened" read, if you're town, while there is plenty of reason to avoid backing down on a lynchable (even if "weakened") read if you're mafia.

5) The offer in 147 was simply never credible. And now that you're in a position where you're in actual danger of that "offer" getting cashed anyway, you're pushing elsewhere. It's almost like... somehow... that offer was always just posturing and never actually sincere. Shocking, I know.

6) Want to guess at what I hated about 134?

[mhsmith0]

PS Alpaca's your #2 team read on gut alone? He of the one single vote (RVS) all game? Please tell me you have more than just gut on your side there.

[mhsmith0]

Frankly. To be blunt.
I died in our newbie game N1.
I didn't get to see much of your play there. I'll probably be reading your play that game as part of my duties as an IC (so, tomorrow), meaning you'll get the superficial analysis you're asking for then.

FYI that one was at Touka. He's seen me twice as anti-town now. Curious where his read is coming from.

[Touka]

{shotty, Alpaca}
{BTD6}
{Kappy, Touka}
{Music and Mail}
{mhsmith0}
Alpaca at this point is purely gut. shotty's more for his D1 antics. BTD6 is leaning town for much the same, with a side of gut. Kappy's also similar. Touka would be higher if I was seeing the play I was actually expecting from beeboy. I'm seeing elements, and I like his reads, but I'm not at the point where I'd risk the game on him being town.
Music and Mail is basically a scumread purely on "when in doubt, trust your earlier reads" philosophy, and they were a strong early scumread so I literally have no better ideas.
mhsmith, as mentioned, is playing a...very much not-town game. This couldn't be further from his town self. This is best exemplified by this game, which is what I'd have expected from him as a town replacement, yet did not see here.

Maybe I am playing on an alt for a reason. ^.^

[mhsmith0]

wrt M&M, some specific posts I'd noted on my read-through:

255 felt extremely honest. Unless you want to tell me Postie is really good at faking tone when she's mafia (in which case links please)
327 I agreed with this
339 was also my gut reaction to Touka
369 was also my gut reaction to Touka, although I thought more wolfy than necessarily obv!wolf

like, those are four posts in particular that I thought suggested the slot was town. Probably not a coincidence that they all came from Postie, who seems easier to read than RC.

[Touka]

Frankly. To be blunt.
I died in our newbie game N1.
I didn't get to see much of your play there. I'll probably be reading your play that game as part of my duties as an IC (so, tomorrow), meaning you'll get the superficial analysis you're asking for then.

FYI that one was at Touka. He's seen me twice as anti-town now. Curious where his read is coming from.

Meta like that is wrong in my opinion. I don't like scum reading people or town reading people solely because of similarities between last play. Does it help? Sure. Does it impact my read now? No.

Your read on Ranger feels opportunistic and your push on Alpacas reads as meh.
Also your slots past players probably all replaced out for a reason and the original owner of your slot made some pretty bad votes.
You are also defending M&M for what appears to be no reason.

Pedit: that is a terrible read based on agreeing with a terrible read oh my.

[Touka]

VOTE: smith

[mhsmith0]

I'm seeing elements, and I like his reads, but I'm not at the point where I'd risk the game on him being town.

You must be insanely confident in a smith/M&M mafia team then, since you're also in his top three.

{Ranger, Smith, M&M} this wins us the game

Or did you mean his earlier

{BTD6, Kappy, Sickofit}

Let's lynch in here.

[Touka]

I feel like you ignored all the alex posts as well which is really scummy,

Pedit: oh god my reads evolved after I entered a game myself what a surprise.

[mhsmith0]

...
Meta like that is wrong in my opinion. I don't like scum reading people or town reading people solely because of similarities between last play. Does it help? Sure. Does it impact my read now? No.

Your read on Ranger feels opportunistic and your push on Alpacas reads as meh.
Also your slots past players probably all replaced out for a reason and the original owner of your slot made some pretty bad votes.
You are also defending M&M for what appears to be no reason.

Pedit: that is a terrible read based on agreeing with a terrible read oh my.

1) How were M&M's reads on you terrible? And what about the first post I'd cited (not directly relating to you)?

2) How was my Ranger push opportunistic? Because she had a wagon? Surely it wasn't because she's incapable of fighting back; I don't think "easy target" really describes ranger particularly well.

3) I kinda did talk about Alex, back in my D1 voting notes. His hop from Ranger to IV seemed ill-explained, and inconsistent with his stated positions wrt Ranger and IV. I also noted how much I hated his 146, which is the sort of post that serves to minimize the psychological importance of the lynch, notably the consequences of a mislynch. What else from Alex's work do you think is worth special attention?

[mhsmith0]

I feel like you ignored all the alex posts as well which is really scummy,

Pedit: oh god my reads evolved after I entered a game myself what a surprise.

There nothing wrong w evolving reads. I'm asking ranger which particluar reads of yours she liked, since she simply said that she liked your reads without explaining further.

[mhsmith0]

So I am scum because I made a set of neutral statements that I specifically stated where not neutral statements later in the game?

Because only scum don't know the roles in an open, to busy being scum to check.

Btw, this is like the opposite of the point. If touka truly didn't know the setup, he's likelier town (since wolves are likelier to be careful and do things like bother to read the setup). If touka was faking such ignorance, of course, then he's almost certainly a wolf.

VOTE: beeboy
just claimed scum

Quite possibly.

UNVOTE: Music & Mail

I need a rethink on my rethink which was itself a rethink.

And here's ranger taking that crappy read and considering a sheep of it.

[Ranger]

You die if you get lynched.

In a normal game, yes.
But this mechanic is basically a nerfed version of the shortnight/longnight mechanic.
In that I don't actually die.
I can still contribute.

And from my wagon, scumhunt.

If you're town, eating a lynch just because you're not feeling confident in your reads or so the town can "move on" or whatever is TERRIBLE play.

Why?

Again.

In a normal game, sure, that goes without saying.

But in this game. When you live on after being lynched. Why is it terrible play to get lynched? Just because it's not a lynch on scum? Sure, that makes it not the ideal play. Ideal play is always lynching scum. But the mechanic exists for good reason. Getting lynched is a viable play. Not optimal, but viable.

that's basically OMGUS logic, dressed up a bit.

A scum player would say this, yes.
But a town player should be able to recognize that there's a difference between calling a player a scum for voting them (omgus) and calling a player scum for the way they voted. I did the latter. You're not scum because you're voting me. It could be any player you voted and I'd say the same thing. You're scum because you're not playing to anything even remotely resembling your towngame.

Sure. And right now the most likely answer is that you're mafia pulling a ploy.

No, I mean the mhsmith that is town I know will post all angles, IN THREAD, on all players. All of them. And with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true.

This blind push of near-absolute certainty from you? Absolutely not characteristic of your towngame.

wrt IV, the ESSENTIAL problem is that you yourself stated that you had a stronger read on M&M. So why not try and build the wagon there?

You keep on pushing this point, yet this continues to ignore what I already said. innocentvillager was a stronger scumread originally. Ergo, I pushed innocentvillager. When this stopped being true, I knew I was second-guessing myself, and through a combination of pride and stubbornness, refused to back down off of that paranoia.

"I hate scumreading a player and then backing down from it even more"

I misspoke; that sentence is incomplete. It was meant to say that I hate scumreading a player

correctly

and then backing down from it. This is obvious enough. When you're right about a read, but then through paranoia, doubt it enough to reverse it, how do YOU feel? Universally, the answer is "very bad". That's what I was referring to. As much as I hate being wrong, being

right

and then reversing my read to be wrong is much, much worse.

And now that you're in a position where you're in actual danger of that "offer" getting cashed anyway, you're pushing elsewhere.

I don't see myself escaping the lynch. I do, however, intend to push you.

And if Music and Mail calls me terrible to be ignored after I flip, they're confirmed scum for it, especially since it's not them that I'm pushing. It's you.

I don't care if I live or die. I expect to die. I'd definitely die if a townread was in any danger of being lynched. But given the choice between contributing to my own lynch, or making a statement about my strong scumread...I'm going to go for the latter.

Want to guess at what I hated about 134?

Nope! I'm looking forward to whatever reason you pose for hating it, and if you intend to lynch me, you WILL post it before I get lynched, because you're going to be held accountable for it and if you don't I swear to god I'll spam the thread until you are lynched.

PS Alpaca's your #2 team read on gut alone?

Tied for number one (tiers are equal), but otherwise, correct.

Your read on Ranger feels opportunistic and your push on Alpacas reads as meh.
Also your slots past players probably all replaced out for a reason and the original owner of your slot made some pretty bad votes.
You are also defending M&M for what appears to be no reason.

This is all true.

You must be insanely confident in a smith/M&M mafia team then, since you're also in his top three.

I have no right to use the term insanely confident to describe my reads given D1.

Still, for lack of a better term: insanely confident on you, yes. Confident on M&M, no. They're a scumread, but it's mostly because "I don't have any better ideas and I'm reviewing my past read and thinking it might hold merit". Still, that Touka sees the two players on the bottom of my reads as scum, when I see them as scum, is a promising sign especially knowing it's beeboy behind the wheel.

I don't think "easy target" really describes ranger particularly well.

To the contrary.

I have almost as many mislynches in my game history as I do nightkills.

And here's ranger taking that crappy read and considering a sheep of it.

No, that was because Touka was revealed to be beeboy.
I hold beeboy to basically the same standard I hold RadiantCowbells: the absolute top tier of scumhunters, the players I easily synch with when we share alignments, the players who I see as competent, and while never perfect, strong players with strong pushes.

And the beeboy of this game, as Touka, was playing in a really strange manner. Touka's play, as a person, looked town. Touka's play, knowing it was beeboy, looked strange.

[BTD6_maker]

I hold RC to a different standard: perpetual scumreads, always anti-Town, and never of any help whatsoever. See Newbies 1700 and 1708 for why.