Newbie 1735 - Banana Split (Game Over!)

[copper223]

My mother is English and I was born there but I've lived elsewhere since.

[Accountant]

"absolutely" is not used to literally mean "absolute"ly. It can be used as an expression meaning "very". check with other players if you don't believe me

[goodmorning]

OK, so break down what you think their reactions were for me. How did each of them react? How did you expect them to react if Town? If Scum? Does your test apply to the other players in the game? If so, how do you think we all reacted? How did you expect us to react if Town? If Scum?

1. GL did not react, no conclusion to be drawn other than that's what I would also do in his shoes regardless of alignment.

I was hoping for a newbie to replace and either try to buddy super hard or immediately OMGUS or a combination of the above if they were scum or to quickly lose respect for my posting and call me bad as town, it's a play on their expectations of more experienced players.

2. With DDD I was hoping that stressing he was part of a team of two would cause him to violently deny or totally ignore that part if they are scum together but GL explicitly asking me about that point later on makes me doubt they are the actual team.

His reaction was to OMGUS me, I thought that was scum indicative together with the rest of his posting being haphazard at best, but he later OMGUSes dragon as well and has shown a strong amount of confbias in the way that he phrases his posts so now I'm trying to decide if I'm up again a VI or just scum brazenly pushing.

3. I wanted Jae's reaction as well, Jae would know that's not my natural posting, as town I would expect him to recognize that and either make sure we really agreed on GL or be paranoid about me buddying them, as scum I would expect them to nervously fence sit waiting to see what the heck I was doing, and they have given me mixed signals.

4. For everyone else, I was curious in a general sense but did not have prior expectations going into it, that's a bit arrogant looking back but I don't usually get pushed early in games (so I did not consider people pouncing on me for it), the fact both you and Accountant jumped on may turn out to be the more important reaction.

A. But you didn't feel like modifying your test when you saw that he wasn't new?
B. So you were reaction testing for one specific pair? You know the probability of one specific pair being Scum (from the perspective of a single Town player) is 6.25%, right? Not very efficacious.
C. Someone voting you when you happen to be voting them isn't necessarily OMGUS.
D. Scum can't have confbias; they have definite knowledge.
E. DDD is many things, but definitely not a VI.
F. I don't understand anything about 3.
G. And what do you think about our reactions?

He did the same in the game 2.5 years ago and was Town then, but I'd really expect him to have improved by now.

I have been playing mafia since the mid 1990s...

:[

Speaking of replacements, with Stapler's request to be replaced that makes five people who've posted at all being replaced, and about three or four who failed to post. Do most games have this much replacing? The two I've played before had little to no replacing taking place.

From Toomai's stats thread: "On average, games replace 2.9 slots with a standard deviation of 1.63, and 3.5 players with a standard deviation of 2.21."
On a bell curve, 95% of results fall within 2 standard deviations from the mean.

p-edit: I would go so far as to say some things are literally absolutes in this game.

[copper223]

A. But you didn't feel like modifying your test when you saw that he wasn't new?
B. So you were reaction testing for one specific pair? You know the probability of one specific pair being Scum (from the perspective of a single Town player) is 6.25%, right? Not very efficacious.
C. Someone voting you when you happen to be voting them isn't necessarily OMGUS.
D. Scum can't have confbias; they have definite knowledge.
E. DDD is many things, but definitely not a VI.
F. I don't understand anything about 3.
G. And what do you think about our reactions?

A. I went ahead anyway because as I said I did not like the conclusions in GL's initial post, the 2 other scum-reads (I am making an effort to leave WIFOM out here) he gave were both in my town pool.
B. No, the idea of the test was based on the slot I did not like replacing out in a way I found possibly questionable (so the most likely scum-slot in the game at the time which makes it a very efficient choice), what came after can be called a reaction test only in the sense that I posted as if I had found a giant scum-slip to begin with and continued along those lines while finding both of these players scummy by themselves, and much more likely so if one of them happened to be scum (because of the associatives between them).
C. That's true but again irrelevant to my point, which is whether DDD being OMGUSy is something that he does more as town.
D. What is this in reference to?
E. You thought Jmo won the other lylo so I am not going to take your opinion about other players at face value.
F. Is 3 the part about Jae? You will get a bunch of WIFOM if you want more about that; the point there is that Jae would likely know that something strange is going on and I'd expect different behaviors from them as scum or town but the fact they openly mentioned not reading the thread makes all deductions in this area problematic.
G. I am still trying to work all the 3 of you out, since this has become an echo chamber of a few people going back and forth it's not leading anywhere, Dragon came in with a new perspective and I want to see if that's mainstream which would lead to a certain interpretation or niche which would make another more probable.

[copper223]

"absolutely" is not used to literally mean "absolute"ly. It can be used as an expression meaning "very". check with other players if you don't believe me

I believe that's how you intended it, it still shows you are (pretending to be) very or as you would put it absolutely close-minded about the back and forth.

[GuiltyLion]

By general tone I mean that it looks like you're not blending in and going for a list of standard reads + one oddball read to look town, like you usually do as scum. Or rather, your oddball read(Jae) looks genuine instead of something thrown in to make it look like you're not blending in.

I went back and reread our Mafia thread together and I don't see anything where I said something about making standard reads + one oddball read to look town. Where'd you get that from?

[GuiltyLion]

Soon after he made his replacement post and that's when I decided to call whoever replaced scummy in his entrance post and see how he and everyone else would react to it (initially it was going to be something like: sucks to replace into a scum-slot eh?).

But GL was replaced before him and I've already stated what I did not like about his catch-up multiple times, the tone I used when claiming he was caught scum was totally off the top but I genuinely believed he was a likely candidate and when I read DDD's entrance where he fails to mention GL despite ending up voting for the same player the connection jumped up to me so I continued that line of inquiry.

It could still be valid, the problem (like any kind of associative) is that it relies on Jae being town, something I believed at the time, but I really have a problem with the way they reacted to GL's case and how they justified not being up to date nor reading the thread with being bummed town.

I call BS on Accountant thinking that I made all of that up, both the tone I used when scum-reading GL/DDD and the way I replied to him when he asked me about the scum-slip are pretty clear signs that I was up to something, now I understand someone may believe it was some weird scum gambit to demonstrate that I was doing something and not coasting, but not that I made the whole reaction test up after the fact.

I'm feeling a lot of townvibes from this explanation.

Also ftr, because there was another post where you mentioned it, I asked you about your line about GL+DDD ignoring eachother because the way you phrased it made it sound like I had ignored DDD the player, not the slot, and I wanted to see if you would be self-conscious about that possible mistake.

[GuiltyLion]

His whole case is built on bad interpretations & expectations of how people think and act

quoting this just to say that it applies to JaeReed better than it does copper

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think I'm okay with a copper lynch today anymore, he looks pretty town in the sustained back and forth of the past several pages, especially the post that I quoted. I think there's an implicit assumption somewhere (being pushed mainly by GM but the idea has also been sheeped by Accountant and DDD) that a "reaction test" has to have some kind of intentional expectation of how scum/town will react when it's given, but I think copper is saying his version of a "reaction test" is just to say shit and see what happens, which is plausible as town behavior. I don't think there's much in the case against him aside from the "reaction test" point and I don't think the "reaction test" point is a strong one.

We have a bunch of people on the sidelines (JaeReed, Marian, Stapler slot) and I'm starting to get progressively worse feelings about Accountant. If copper is scum his buddy is either a) Dragonfire, b) leaving him to die, or c) pushing a D1 bus.

[GuiltyLion]

@Dragonfire

, what is your current read on Accountant and why? I know you've said previously you're townreading him but I want an update as to whether that has changed

[copper223]

Fair enough

VOTE: Jae

[Dragonfire]

I don't think I'm okay with a copper lynch today anymore, he looks pretty town in the sustained back and forth of the past several pages, especially the post that I quoted. I think there's an implicit assumption somewhere (being pushed mainly by GM but the idea has also been sheeped by Accountant and DDD) that a "reaction test" has to have some kind of intentional expectation of how scum/town will react when it's given, but I think copper is saying his version of a "reaction test" is just to say shit and see what happens, which is plausible as town behavior. I don't think there's much in the case against him aside from the "reaction test" point and I don't think the "reaction test" point is a strong one.

Agreed. This post makes you look more town-y in my estimation, fyi.

We have a bunch of people on the sidelines (JaeReed, Marian, Stapler slot) and I'm starting to get progressively worse feelings about Accountant. If copper is scum his buddy is either a) Dragonfire, b) leaving him to die, or c) pushing a D1 bus.

Since I know I'm town, and it's very unlikely that scum would bus their buddy on D1, then if copper is scum I would guess that his buddy is either Marian, Stapler slot or you, from process of elimination. But I don't think he's scum anyway, so it doesn't matter.

@Dragonfire

, what is your current read on Accountant and why? I know you've said previously you're townreading him but I want an update as to whether that has changed

I'm really not sure. His play recently has quite literally been antithetical to his play before copper's reaction test. I still think he's more likely to be town than scum, but my townread on him has weakened quite considerably. I believe I discussed this a few pages ago, actually.

Who is your strongest scumread right now, GL, and why?

[copper223]

After rereading the game I'm pretty convinced both Scum are in {copper, Jae, Dragon} with DDD as the very unlikely side candidate.

I also would probably not vote Jae

today

though.

Why are you long-term planning your votes?

@Dragon
What do you think of GM?

[goodmorning]

Today is hardly long-term.

I'll respond to the rest in a bit.

[GuiltyLion]

Who is your strongest scumread right now, GL, and why?

What do you think?

[copper223]

Today is hardly long-term.

I'll respond to the rest in a bit.

That's a dodge.

If you left the today part out it could be interpreted as you being confident about me being scum so I'm the only one you are willing to vote at that point in time (although the question of why you don't mention Dragon is still open, were you ok with a Dragon lynch there?).

But by adding the today part in you're saying that anything else that Jae does today is unlikely to make you vote them and that's problematic because I see quite a few reasons for why you might not want to do so and are thinking along those lines as scum and very few as town.

[Accountant]

By general tone I mean that it looks like you're not blending in and going for a list of standard reads + one oddball read to look town, like you usually do as scum. Or rather, your oddball read(Jae) looks genuine instead of something thrown in to make it look like you're not blending in.

I went back and reread our Mafia thread together and I don't see anything where I said something about making standard reads + one oddball read to look town. Where'd you get that from?

I noticed by looking at your posts.

[Accountant]

I don't like how copper keeps focusing on semantics.

[copper223]

I don't like that you keep calling semantics anything that doesn't agree with your narrative or your reads.

How is that semantics, also stop butting into my lines of inquiry when you're not part of it.

[Accountant]

It's semantics because you know damn well what she meant and you're trying to spin it a certain way by misinterpreting words. I thought maybe you're just not a native speaker but you apparently are so that can't be it.

[copper223]

I do not know damn well what she meant and so apparently doesn't she herself as her answer was not, copper stop misrepping me, but you know better than us what we both think ay?

If GM flips scum I am putting this in my sig.

[Accountant]

dude you're starting a quibble over a single word. what on earth is our problem??

[Accountant]

Like, I know I've been criticized for getting into back and forth about meaningless trivia, but this is some next level shit

[copper223]

dude you're starting a quibble over a single word. what on earth is our problem??

The way you post is relevant because it often shows the mindset you're coming from, the way GM phrased it makes me think she is planning ahead who to vote and that would be scummy.

You're a SE and have played as an IC, forget the death-tunnel for a second if that's what you are doing, is there any benefit from you answering for GM before she replies herself?

Now if GM is scum you have given her a line to parrot and if you continue to think I am scum you can always reply after GM answered herself and say what you just said to convince the rest of the players that that's what's happening.

[Accountant]

If GM is scum she doesn't have to parrot anything, because nothing she says in response to your question is AI, because

the question itself is bad

.