New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

I'm calling it how I see it.

[Dunnstral]

Also, you think I'd never consent to my own death. I wouldn't consent to it unless it was lylo. I've explained my reasoning. Best pair to lynch and all that

[MiniDeathStar]

@pie:

What do you think would have happened if Dunn managed to lynch Smith 1st dance and both of you flipped town? Do you think he would've got a lot of heat for it?

And what if he managed to lynch you now or 1st dance and Smith flipped scum? Do you think it's at all possible that Dunn could be bussing Smith in hopes to lock himself as town and end the game? Or do you think he'd be lynched anyway because of Kagami?

[pieguyn]

Also, you think I'd never consent to my own death. I wouldn't consent to it unless it was lylo. I've explained my reasoning. Best pair to lynch and all that

you say that, but in a MYLO versus e.g. Jester's pair or scout's pair, you-scum has a practically guaranteed win if you can play around Kagami. I think you would be aware of this.

p-edit: I don't think so. I think he felt comfortable trying to lynch us D1 because we were widely scum read and even if we were to flip town/town, the majority of the blame for it would be mine. if mhsmith is scum, on the other hand, I don't think it's a bus.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yup, I agree with pie there. I'm comfortable keeping her and her boyfriend as the last town if Dunn dies as scum, and lynch everybody else.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yup, I agree with pie there. I'm comfortable keeping her and her boyfriend as the last town if Dunn dies as scum, and lynching everybody else.

Grammar.

[Dunnstral]

Also, you think I'd never consent to my own death. I wouldn't consent to it unless it was lylo. I've explained my reasoning. Best pair to lynch and all that

you say that, but in a MYLO versus e.g. Jester's pair or scout's pair, you-scum has a practically guaranteed win if you can play around Kagami. I think you would be aware of this.

p-edit: I don't think so. I think he felt comfortable trying to lynch us D1 because we were widely scum read and even if we were to flip town/town, the majority of the blame for it would be mine. if mhsmith is scum, on the other hand, I don't think it's a bus.

Alright. In a situation where I'm scum and one of jester pair/scout pair is a t-t pair, who are my partners?

[Dunnstral]

For both situations. There's a reason I'm asking this

[Dunnstral]

her and her boyfriend

Gratz mhsmith

[MiniDeathStar]

Lover and partner have connotations. Thus, boyfriend.

Alright. In a situation where I'm scum and one of jester pair/scout pair is a t-t pair, who are my partners?

Scum-you implicates Arthur *or* Jester and Parama who you've been bussing during Dance 2.

But I think that's a lot less likely than scum!Dunn, town!Parama and town!Smith, with scum!Jester and scum!Arthur.

[pieguyn]

For both situations. There's a reason I'm asking this

SAD/scout being town means you/Jester/Parama and we're back to where I was before, where I hypothesized you'd be the final scum after Jester -> Parama scum flips. I don't know OTOH what Jester/MDS being town means, but I still would feel mostly confident in your treatment of my pair not being a bus, so I would default to thinking you/Parama/someone in SAD/scout pair unless I had reason to think otherwise.

[pieguyn]

rereading your post, I am open to arguments for keeping another pair besides SAD/scout alive at endgame if you think we're in a crossbus situation. as I said I'm not 100% that SAD/scout is the town pair if you're town (I do think the plan is correct if you're scum), even though I think it's the best shot atm, since I'd largely just be going off of my previous reads (that is, this being a Jester->Parama gamestate with mhsmith as the +1).

if the argument for it is strong enough, I'd do a Parama lynch -> SAD lynch -> next lynch conditional on who in the SAD pair flips scum. I definitely want to know what Kagami thinks when she arrives.

[pieguyn]

to be clear, I do not mean lynching Parama first, this is in the plan Kagami and I were thinking about (your pair leaving first) in the case where you're town.

[MiniDeathStar]

Pie, how likely do you think is that Dunn and Kagami are both town with Parama? Something like Jester, Smith, Arthur?

[MiniDeathStar]

Also: do you think it's at all possible that inspector and Arthur are scum together?

[MiniDeathStar]

Jester used to scumread Smith, Inspector, Kagami and HS, then changed his mind on Kagami and HS, eventually changed his mind on Smith, too. At one point he asked me what I thought about Arthur, I said town, and he didn't respond.

I think he eventually came down to hard-townreading Smith and that's the last read he gave. It was shortly before Shadow left.

[pieguyn]

Pie, how likely do you think is that Dunn and Kagami are both town with Parama? Something like Jester, Smith, Arthur?

I don't know.

something like that would probably just make me want to cry. I had thought about it at one point, but Kagami didn't even seem to mention the idea of it back when we were running through combinations earlier (or if she did I've forgot about it and can't seem to find it again).

Also: do you think it's at all possible that inspector and Arthur are scum together?

they might be, but I don't think it's all that likely.

[Human Sequencer]

yo hey guys im here
so we've got all of these chain-lynching plans set up and i dont agree with any of them at all, even though a lot of it is coming from town
dunn's plan is not smart, but i don't see any way it's not coming from town.
or rather it is smart, just not correct.
we need to hear smith's input before we end this day- he's made a lot of noise about voting analysis but hasn't actually done much. i get that he's busy, but the game is literally on the line at this point, and i trust his analysis over most others' in the game. i doubt that he's scum.
sad/scout must go today or tomorrow. the more time we let go with scout's vote sitting around the more dangerous this game gets, and sad is not unlikely to flip scum.
i don't mind going today but if that's the case sad/scout MUST go tomorrow. can i get enough people on board for that?

[MiniDeathStar]

I think the least likely scenario is that Arthur and Parama are town together. I see no reason for scum not to merrily wagon one of them, then the other. It would be a literal goldmine. This is why I want to lynch Parama, then potentially Arthur.

[Human Sequencer]

and also i wouldn't mind surviving until endgame but i just don't think that's likely at this point.
i don't think a scum/scum pair is unlikely, but i'm unsure of where it is. could be arthur/scout. all the more reason that they -must- die tomorrow or today.
if jester/mds is being lynched i'd MUCH rather it happen in an endgame with jester/mds and pie/smith because i don't trust any pair as much as pie/smith. that's my preferred endgame-- jester/mds and pie/smith.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yes, Human, I'm totally on board with that.

[pieguyn]

no one do anything until Kagami and I have a chance to reconvene, at least.

[pieguyn]

are both of you trying to say you want me/mhsmith to be the endgame pair, unconditionally?

please tell me that's not what you're saying.

[Human Sequencer]

well uh that's what i'm saying idk about mds, i think she was just agreeing with 'yeah lets get rid of arthur/scout tomorrow'

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh yes, I was agreeing with the Arthur lynch. I'm not deadset on any pair as town/town atm, not even mine.